Welcome, racing fans, to the first in a series of blog posts analyzing the major stakes races being held at Saratoga this year. Every graded stakes race -- as well as select listed stakes races -- will be given thorough analysis, and we shall try our best to identify some of the leading Breeders' Cup hopefuls before they establish their reputations. Let's start handicapping!
James Marvin Stakes (gr. III)
Today's stakes action begins with the eighth race on the card, which is the $100,000 James Marvin Stakes (gr. III), a seven-furlong sprint for three-year-olds and upward. The morning line favorite is Jackson Bend, who won this race last year before coming back and winning the Forego Stakes (gr. I) in his next start. The five-year-old Nick Zito-trainee is having a good season this year, winning the Carter Handicap (gr. I) and Hal's Hope Stakes (gr. III) in addition to placing in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II). Last time out, he turned in a poor performance in the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I), finishing fifth of sixth after pressing the pace, but the pace scenario of the race really didn't suit his style, and the one-mile distance of that race really isn't his best. He should be much sharper today while returning to a distance at which he is undefeated, and a repeat victory would surprise no one.
Caixa Eletronica is also expected to receive a great deal of wagering support, as the seven-year-old veteran is coming off of an impressive victory in the True North Handicap (gr. II) at Belmont Park. In that race, he took advantage of a pace meltdown to rally from over a dozen lengths behind. He is unlikely to get the same sort of pace today, but he is a consistent runner, and he should appreciate the distance of today's race.
Pacific Ocean has only raced once this year, finishing sixth behind Caixa Eletronica in the True North, but that was his first start since winning the Vernon O. Underwood Stakes (gr. III) last November, and he should be much sharper today. He is quite possibly the quickest horse in the race, easily capable of turning in a :21-and-change opening quarter, and should he seize command of the early lead, he could take this field a long way on the front end.
The only other horse in the race that might try and go with him on the front end is Crossbow, a speedy son of Bernardini that won two allowance races in front-running fashion earlier in the year. However, he could only manage a fifth-place finish in the True North Handicap (gr. I) last time out after being beaten to the lead by Pacific Ocean. He doesn't seem to be quite as quick early as Pacific Ocean, but he is more than capable of maintaining a solid pace to the finish, and so long as Pacific Ocean doesn't kick away turning for home, Crossbow should be able to wear him down inside the final eighth of a mile.
The longshots in this race are Golddigger's Boy and Scotus, a pair of closers that could pick up the pieces if the early pace is hot enough. The first-mentioned runner could be considered a Parx specialist, as he has made thirteen of his seventeen starts at that track and finished in the top three every time. He has raced here at Saratoga before, finishing a decent fifth in last year's Forego Stakes behind the above-mentioned Jackson Bend, but is 1-for-4 at tracks other than Parx, and may be in a bit deep here.
As for Scotus, only two of his twelve starts have come in sprints, but he has won both of them in impressive fashion. Being a deep closer, he is reliant on a strong early pace to set up his late run, but he has the talent to be a contender and is cutting back in distance after a pair of route races, which is often a successful technique. Don't be surprised if he outruns his odds.
My selection is Jackson Bend.
Schuylerville Stakes (gr. III)
Two-year-old fillies are the stars of this race, as six promising maiden winners are scheduled to contest this six-furlong event. The morning line favorite is Baby J, who broke her maiden impressively for trainer Michelle Nehei before being transferred to the barn of Rick Dutrow Jr. However, the eventual winner could end up being So Many Ways, who is trained by Dutrow's brother, Anthony Dutrow. Anthony is not known for winning with first-time starters, so when one of his horses breaks their maiden in their debut effort by eight lengths, it's worth noting. That is exactly what So Many Ways did in her debut, and if she improves on that performance at all, she should win this race.
Brown Eyes Blue, a daughter of Big Brown trained by Dale Romans, broke her maiden in visually impressive fashion on June 30th at Churchill Downs, holding off late run to win the six-furlong race by 1 3/4 lengths. But her front-running style could potentially be compromised by Sweet Shirley Mae, who broke her maiden over colts at Belmont Park on May 9th. She is coming into this race off of a lengthy layoff, but she is training sharply and should be a contender from the start.
The other two fillies in the race are Can't Explain, who broke her maiden second time out by 4 1/2 lengths for trainer Todd Pletcher. She, too, possesses a great deal of early speed, and while her recent workouts haven't been anything spectacular, she looks good enough to win this race on talent alone. But she'll have to be sharp to turn the tables on Fully Living, who handed Can't Explain a defeat when they faced off in a maiden special weight at Belmont Park on May 31st.
My selection is So Many Ways.
-Keelerman
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