SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- July 22nd, 2012

Today's graded stakes race at Saratoga is the $200,000 Sanford Stakes (gr. II), a very old stakes best known as the only race that the immortal Man o' War ever lost. This year's renewal is unlikely to be as dramatic, but the eight two-year-old colts currently scheduled to head to post should put on a good show, and the possibility always exists that the winner could turn out to be a very nice horse.

Saratoga Stakes (gr. II)
Six furlongs on the Saratoga main track

Entries:

PP	Horse	Jockey
1	Handsome Jack	Joel Rosario
2	Brave Dave	Paco Lopez
3	Bern Identity	Rosie Napravnik
4	Hightail	Edgar Prado
5	Rose Junction	Javier Castellano
6	Special Jo	Julien Leparoux
7	Good Tickled	(Scratched)
8	Onetwentyeight	Rajiv Maragh
9	John Gordon	Alan Garcia

The clear favorite is Todd Pletcher's Rose Junction, a super-promising son of Dixie Union that won a five-furlong maiden special weight at Belmont Park by three lengths. Most intriguing is that the runner-up, a filly by the name of Lignite, returned to win a maiden special weight here at Saratoga on opening day. These facts make Rose Junction clearly the colt to beat, and with Javier Castellano aboard, you know he's going to get a great ride.

However, Bern Identity may prove to be just as talented, and a mild upset is definitely a possibility. The Kelly Breen-trainee broke his maiden second time out at Belmont Park by an incredible 13 3/4 lengths. If he can repeat that performance -- or even improve upon it -- there may be no beating the son of Berstein.

Handsome Jack, from the barn of Wesley Ward, is coming off of a strong effort in the 5-1/2 furlong Track Barron Stakes at Belmont Park, in which he rallied from just off the pace to be beaten just a half-length by Todd Pletcher's promising colt Shanghai Bobby, who missed the track record that day by just 0.61 seconds. Considering that Handsome Jack finished 12 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finish, it would appear as though both colts are of the very special kind. Today, I would expect Handsome Jack to once again settle a few lengths off of the early lead before pouncing in the homestretch. A fast pace would greatly help his chances.

Another intriguing runner is Onetwentyeight, the second of the two Pletcher-trainees entered in the Sanford. This colt looked like a nice one when he broke his maiden by five lengths going 5-1/2 furlongs at Belmont Park, and while his final time and fractions were not all that impressive, he did give the impression of being a nice colt, and could eventually prove to be better than his stablemate Rose Junction. However, if he is to win the Sanford, he'll have to avoid getting into a destructive speed duel with Bern Identity -- as well as Rose Junction.

As for the remaining colts, Special Jo broke his maiden first time out by six lengths, but could only manage a tiring third next time out in the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III). Brave Dave won his debut at Calder by 1 1/4 lengths, but his final time was not very quick. John Gordon proved game in breaking his maiden third time out at Churchill Downs by a length, while Hightail finished fourth in the Bashford Manor, but is still a maiden after three starts.

My selection is Bern Identity. While you can never count out Todd Pletcher from these juvenile stakes races, and while Rose Junction is certainly a deserving favorite, I think that Bern Identity had something left in the tank at the finish of his debut victory, and he has trained exceptionally well since then. I'm fairly confident that he will break on top, go straight to the lead, and turn back every challenge en route to another impressive victory.

-Keelerman