The Saturday card at Saratoga is a pretty spectacular one, with a pair of very prestigious graded stakes races scheduled to be run later this afternoon. Both carry purses of $600,000, and while one -- the Diana Stakes -- is a grade I race, the more anticipated event is the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) for three-year-olds, where Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) runner-up Alpha and Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) winner Neck 'n Neck set to face off against the up-and-coming Teeth of the Dog in an exciting prep for the Travers Stakes (gr. I) later this summer.
We'll begin our analysis with the Diana Stakes. Winter Memories is the morning line favorites based off of her stellar record of seven wins in eleven starts, including last year's Garden City Stakes (gr. I). But while she did win the Beaugay Stakes (gr. III) in impressive fashion in her first start of 2012, she could only manage a second-place effort last time out in the Just a Game Stakes (gr. I), in which Tapitsfly set a strong pace on the front end en route to a decisive 2 1/4-length victory.
Being a late closer, Winter Memories is always at the mercy of the early pace, and -- unfortunately for her -- there doesn't appear to be much speed in this race. This certainly bodes well for the chances of the above-mentioned Tapitsfly, who is back to try to add another grade I victory to her record. Trained by Dale Romans, the filly won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf way back in 2009, but has gotten better with age and seems to be just now reaching her peak. In her last start, she won the Just a Game Stakes as described above, and a repeat of that effort would make her difficult to beat today. Perhaps the nine-furlong distance of this race will be a bit much for her, but the way she finished at the end of the Just a Game left me with the impression that she could handle the added distance under the right circumstances.
Zagora, winner of this race last year, comes into today's race off of a strong victory in the Gallorette Handicap (gr. III) at Pimlico on May 19th, and has won three of her four starts overall this year. Her lone defeat came in Keeneland's Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I), where an extremely slow pace rendered Zagora's brilliant turn of foot practically useless. With Ramon Dominguez in the saddle, Zagora seems to have a decent shot at pulling off a repeat victory, but like Winter Memories, she will be at the mercy of the pace and may find Tapitsfly hard to run down.
Another filly that deserves respect is Hungry Island, who defeated Tapitsfly two starts back in the Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (gr. II). However, she could only manage a third-place finish last time out in the Just a Game Stakes, her late run compromised by Tapitsfly's brilliant performance. She is certainly eligible to rebound today, and it's worth noting that she won the Lake Placid Stakes (gr. II) here at Saratoga last year -- while defeating Winter Memories -- but she would likely need a career-best performance in order to run down Tapitsfly in this spot.
The last two fillies in the race are Law of the Range and Dream Peace, a pair of European shippers that could certainly make their presence felt. The first-mentioned filly has not been particularly competitive in group races across Europe, but possesses some early speed and could find herself setting a slow pace alongside Tapitsfly. Under those circumstances, she could have something left in the tank for the stretch run, but it's difficult to envision her winning the race. Dream Peace, however, is a group II winner in France and was beaten just a head in the E. P. Taylor Stakes (gr. I) last October at Woodbine. She has failed to crack the trifecta in two starts this year, but one of those was the Singapore Airlines International Cup (Gr-I) against males, in which she was beaten by -- among others -- the 2010 United Nations Stakes (gr. I) winner Chinchon. Dream Pace can turn in quite a late run under the right circumstances, and has proved that she can ship across the Atlantic and contend in a major North American race, but like most of the fillies in this race, she would need a sufficient early pace to set up her late run.
My selection is Tapitsfly, for I feel her speed gives her a tactical advantage in a race lacking front-runners. Winter Memories, Zagora, and Hungry Island all deserve respect based on their overall records, but they may find themselves with two much to do inside the final furlong, should Tapitsfly run back to her Just a Game effort. It's difficult to say for certain how good the European shippers are, but a victory by either would not be overly surprising.
Moving onward, we come to the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II). Alpha is the morning line favorite, thanks to the strong performances he turned in while winning the Withers Stakes (gr. III) and finishing second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) during the spring. He then finished a dull twelfth in the Kentucky Derby, undone by the large cheering crowd, and subsequently came down with a fever that forced him to miss the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). He will be entering this race off of a nearly three-month layoff, but he has been training exceptionally well for his return and will be a contender if he runs anywhere near his best.
Neck 'n Neck and Teeth of the Dog are other obvious contenders, as both are coming off of impressive victories in graded stakes races. The first-mentioned colt won the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) by 7 1/4 lengths last time out, and seems to be only now reaching his peak. Like Alpha, he has been training wonderfully, and a repeat of his last performance would put him right in the mix. His ability to stay within a few lengths of the early lead, coupled with his powerful finishing kick, is a potent combination that should allow him to adapt to any pace scenario.
As for Teeth of the Dog, he showed talent during the spring while finishing third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) and fifth in the Preakness (gr. I), but he has gotten even better as of late, culminating with a terrific victory in the Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) last time out. In that race, he helped set a strong pace of :22, :46 flat, and 1:09 4/5 before gamely turning back a late run from Fast Falcon to win by a neck. Assuming he doesn't get involved in another such speed duel, he has the ability to stalk the pace and finish with a strong burst of speed, and that ability could help him get the jump on the deep closers.
Liaison has had an interesting career. After winning the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Real Quiet Stakes as a juvenile, he disappointed in three consecutive Kentucky Derby prep races at Santa Anita, but hinted that a return to form was coming when he finished a decent sixth in the Derby itself. He then ran well in two graded stakes events at Betfair Hollywood Park, losing the Affirmed Handicap (gr. III) and Swaps Stakes (gr. II) by a combined 1 1/4 lengths. He has the class to suggest that he can contend, and his recent workouts have been exceptional, but the fact remains that all of his best efforts have come over Hollywood's Cushion Track, and he may not be quite as good on dirt.
Atigun is a somewhat surprising 8-1 on the morning line, despite the fact that he finished a strong third in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) last time out. Perhaps many feel that his performance that day was more the result of the long distance rather than his talent, but he did win a 1 1/16th miles allowance race on the Kentucky Derby undercard in strong enough fashion, and while it's true that this colt certainly does like distance, he may simply be an up-and-comer that could contend for the victory in shorter races thanks to his talent alone.
As for the rest, Fast Falcon finished second in both the Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) and Easy Goer Stakes to Teeth of the Dog, but the Nick Zito-trainee is unlikely to get the same terrific pace setup that he did in the Dwyer. Prospective has won a pair of graded stakes races, something none of his rivals have done, but it's difficult to say for sure if he is as good as some of the other runners here. Last of all, My Adonis won the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth Park last time out, but was tiriong badly at the finish despite not setting a particularly fast pace. Going another sixteenth of a mile farther today, while stepping up in class, he may find himself in deep waters when the closers come after him in the homestretch.
My fairly uncreative selection is Neck 'n Neck. With all due respect to Alpha, winning a race of this caliber off of a three-month layoff is not going to be easy. And while Teeth of the Dog is clearly a talented colt, I think Neck 'n Neck may simply be better. Liaison, too, deserves some serious respect, but until he hits the board in a major race on dirt, I will continue to view him as more of a Cushion Track-specialist.
-Keelerman
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