The feature of the card is the $200,000 Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II), a 6-1/2 furlong sprint for three-year-olds. A local prep for the prestigious King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I), to be run here at Saratoga next month, the Amsterdam has been won in recent years by such terrific horses as Quality Road (2009), Discreetly Mine (2010), and Caleb's Posse (2011). The last two mentioned colts went on to win the King's Bishop, while Quality Road finished third in the Travers Stakes (gr. I) and went on to win a trio of grade Is during his four-year-old season. So clearly, the Amsterdam Stakes has been a "key race" in recent years, and might actually warrant a promotion to grade I status sometime in the future. But that's beside the point. For the moment, let's take a look at the strong field that has been entered in this year's renewal of the race.
The morning line favorite at 5-2 is Currency Swap, who won the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) here at Saratoga last year, in addition to a maiden special weight. He went to the sidelines with an injury shortly thereafter, returning in March to finish second in an allowance race and eleventh in the Illinois Derby (gr. III). A return to sprinting yielded a sharp victory in the You and I Stakes, followed by a strong second to Trinniberg in the $400,000 Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II). Given his overall record, he deserves consideration as a win contender, but his 2-for-2 record at Saratoga makes his credentials even stronger.
But to win, he'll have to take down Fort Loudon. Picture this: Trinniberg beats Currency Swap in the Woody Stephens. Then Fort Loudon beats Trinniberg in the Carry Back Stakes (gr. III). By this logic, Fort Loudon would appear to be quite a bit superior to Currency Swap. Is he? Well, when Fort Loudon took down Trinniberg, he did it the hard way, pushing the heavy favorite through quick fractions before reeling him in at the finish. It was a truly stunning performance; one that fully showcased Fort Loudon's deadly combination of speed coupled with stamina. A repeat of that effort would bring Fort Loudon the victory here this afternoon. But here's the hitch -- Fort Loudon is 7-for-10 at Calder Race Course, where the Carry Back was held, and 0-for-4 elsewhere. Clearly, we are looking at a perfect example of a home-track specialist. Time will tell if Fort Loudon can successfully transfer his talent to other racetracks, but to date, he has even come close to doing so. Throw in the fact that he has breezed just once since the Carry Back, and you have a horse that may be a bit vulnerable while well-bet. He can will, but he'll have to be great in order to do so.
Another logical win contender is Doctor Chit, a Todd Pletcher-trainee that has won three straight races in impressive fashion. Last time out, he beat a good field in the Western Larla Stakes while running six furlongs in the blazing time of 1:08.90. He's got terrific speed, and can maintain it a long way. The only question is whether or not he will be up to handling the pace pressure that will surely come from Gun Boat. The latter colt is a super-talented Bob Baffert-trainee that shipped in from California to contest this race. Throughout his career, Gun Boat has shown truly brilliant flashes of early speed, but has been rating just off of the early pace as of late. However, the fact that he has drawn gate one may force jockey Joel Rosario to send the colt hard during the first furlong of the race -- setting up a potential speed duel with Doctor Chit.
As for the rest, Unbridled's Note disappointed in a pair of Derby preps at Oaklawn during the spring, but rebounded sharply to win a seven-furlong allowance race last time out; Politicallycorrect finished second in the Ohio Derby (gr. III) in his most recent start, and cuts back to what may a more favorable distance, but the winner of the Ohio Derby returned to fare poorly in yesterday's Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II); last of all, Laurie's Rocket has been a consistent sprinter in lower-level stakes, but was soundly beaten last time out in the Woody Stephens Stakes.
My selection is Currency Swap, given his perfect record at Saratoga, his back class, and his strong effort last time out. Fort Loudon is certainly a formidable opponent, and his Carry Back effort was among the most courageous performances I have ever seen a horse give. But his record away from Calder does leave me leery of his chances.
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment