There may be only one graded stakes race on Saratoga's Saturday card, but it's a big one -- the $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I) for three-year-old fillies. And while the field may be somewhat lacking in terms of numbers -- only six have entered -- it is certainly not lacking in talent, as four graded stakes runners are entered.
The distance of this race is nine furlongs, a typical distance for sophomore fillies to traverse. As a matter of fact, the morning line favorite, Zo Impressive, is coming off of a victory in the nine-furlong Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park. But there are a couple of things to remember when analyzing the form of horses coming out of the Mother Goose. First off, that race is held at Belmont Park -- and believe it or not, nine furlong races at Belmont are one-turn events. At Saratoga, and just about every other major racetrack in the country, they are two-turn races. To date, Zo Impressive has run in just one two-turn race, finishing second behind Grace Hall in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (gr. II) back in March. That's not to say that she can't win a two-turn race, for she certainly looks capable of handling the added distance, but there's one other thing to remember when examining her Mother Goose performance. The rail was bad that day at Belmont, and the two favorites -- grade I winners Contested and Believe You Can -- both ended up running over the deepest part of the track, while Zo Impressive stayed on the outside throughout the race.
The same thing goes for Disposablepleasure, who also rallied on the outside in the Mother Goose to be beaten just three-quarters of a length. The fact that today's race is a two-turn affair shouldn't hurt her chances at all, for she has proven herself in such races on several occasions, but her Mother Goose effort may have been slightly flattered by the bad rail. On the other hand, one can't deny that she has been improving with every start, and couldn't really be training any better.
In Lingerie is one of the more intriguing horses in the race, as she has won three of her four starts and enters the Coaching Club off of a strong victory in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) at Pimlico, where she defeated Disposablepleasure despite stumbling badly at the start. However, she missed some training as the result of minor injuries suffered during the race, and while she has turned in five solid workouts since then, she is nevertheless entering this race off a two-month layoff and may not be at her very best. On the other hand, being a daughter of Empire Maker, I would expect In Lingerie to continue to improve as the year progresses, and it's possible that she is sitting on another strong move forward. Interestingly, she was beaten soundly by Zo Impressive in an allowance race back in February, back before either were proven in stakes company.
One horse that could potentially pull off an upset is Questing, a daughter of Hard Spun owned by Goldolphin Racing. She began her career in Europe, where she won a maiden race and placed in a pair of group III events while being trained by John Gosden. She then shipped to the United States for a start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), where she finished fifth behind runaway winner My Miss Aurelia, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths for third. She was then transferred to the barn of Kiaran McLaughlin, for whom she performed rather poorly in a pair of turf allowance races. A switch to dirt proved the key to success, as her next start yielded a 3 3/4-length victory in a one-mile allowance race at Belmont Park. Her impressive effort earned her a Beyer speed figure of 105, which towers over anything that the other Coaching Club contenders have earned. Whether she can repeat that performance while stretching out around two turns is a legitimate question, but she seems to have plenty of raw talent, and a strong performance would not surprise me.
The longshots in this race are Funny Proposition and Yara. The first-mentioned filly won a two-turn dirt allowance race at Churchill Downs on May 4th, then finished a dull eighth in the Regret Stakes (gr. III) over the Churchill turf after hopping at the start. She is certainly eligible to improve while returning to dirt, but she is unproven at this level and would have to improve in order to contend. Nevertheless, she should secure a decent trip just behind the early leaders, and she could get first run in the homestretch.
As for Yara, she defeated the highly-talented Grace Hall in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) on February 25th, but has been extremely disappointing in three starts since then, which includes a dismal thirteenth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I). If she were to run back to her Davona Dale effort, she should contend for a major piece of the purse, but it's hard to label her a contender off of her last few efforts.
My selection is Questing. I view her as the lone speed in the race, which should enable her to grab the early lead without any difficulties and play a nice little game of "Catch me if you can!" with her five rivals. Zo Impressive, Disposablepleasure, and In Lingerie should all make decent runs at her, but I feel that Questing's tactical advantage, coupled with her obvious talent, will enable her to pull off the upset.
-Keelerman
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