The fifth graded stakes of the Saratoga meet is the $200,000 Lake George Stakes (gr. II), a 1 1/16th miles turf race for three-year-old fillies. There are a number of fascinating entrants, including a European classic winner making her American debut.
The morning line favorite at 5-2 is Stephanie's Kitten, who won the Alcibiadies Stakes (gr. I) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) as a two-year-old. Trained by Wayne Catalano, she began her 2012 campaign with a third-place finish in the Ashland Stakes (gr. I) over the Keeneland Polytrack, then switched back to turf and won the Edgewood Stakes in impressive fashion on May 4th. A slight illness kept her from a potential start in the Coronation Stakes (Eng-I) at Royal Ascot, but she has been training sharply for her return and should be a major factor, even if she is a bit short in her first start back.
Her main competition may end up coming from Samitar, a European-based filly that was recently acquired by owner Martin Schwartz. She was a top-class filly in Europe, where she won the Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas (Ire-I) with an impressive finish. Her only subsequent start, a fourth-place effort in the Coronation Stakes (Eng-I), may have been partly due to soft ground -- something she will not encounter today. Obviously, there are some major questions regarding how she will handle the transatlantic voyage, but anything remotely resembling her Irish Guineas form would put her in contention for the victory.
Centre Court is also likely to receive some wagering support, thanks to her strong victory in the Regret Stakes (gr. III) last time out. While it is true that several of the horses she beat that day did not run well in their next starts, that does not detract from the fact that Centre Court is a very high-quality filly with a strong turf pedigree, and with Julien Leparoux in the saddle, she should be able to work out just the kind of trip she needs to secure the victory.
As for the rest of the contenders, Better Lucky won the Sands Point Stakes (gr. II) in fine fashion last time out, but is facing much better today; Dancing Solo has won two straight stakes for trainer Todd Pletcher, but she too is stepping up in class; Somali Lemonade was a top-class juvenile, but has failed while well-bet in all three of her 2012 performances; Medolina is undefeated in three starts, including a stakes, but is facing much tougher today; and Elusive Rumour has won two of six starts, but is making her first start against open company after spending her career running against New York-breds.
My selection is Centre Court. While I certainly respect the chances of Stephanie's Kitten and Samitar, I do believe they will both be a bit short today, and would expect to see their best sometime in the future. I like Centre Court for many reasons, including the impressive turn-of-foot she displayed last time out, and Leparoux is a master at riding turf races. Better Lucky certainly merits respect as well, as she also displayed brilliant acceleration in the Sands Point Stakes, but I feel that Centre Court may be just a bit better.
-Keelerman
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