The feature race of the Friday card may not be a graded stakes, but the $100,000 Curlin Stakes is rapidly becoming a respected prep for the $1,000,000 Travers Stakes (gr. I) and thus drew a quality field eight, although two scratches have reduced the field to six. Despite the small field, it is not an easy race to handicap, and it's even tougher now since overnight rains left the track a sloppy mess.
The morning line favorite is Street Life, who won the $75,000 Broad Brush Stakes back in March and is the lone stakes winner in the field. His recent efforts have been respectable, with a third-place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. III) preceding a fourth-place in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), but the late-running colt is reliant on a strong early pace to set up his late kick and may not get that today, as their is not much speed at all in the race. He certainly deserves respect based on talent alone, but under the circumstances, he would likely need a career-best performance to secure the victory.
Ever So Lucky is an intriguing horse, for while he may be a bit over-matched here in terms of Beyer speed figures, he could potentially find himself as the lone front-runner in the race. He showed great promise as a juvenile, breaking his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths before finishing a strong second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), but disappointing efforts in the Swale Stakes (gr. III) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) caused him to lose a great deal of his reputation. However, a 7 1/2-length victory in an allowance race on July 5th may be a sign that he is about to return to form in a big way, and with John Velazquez in the saddle, Ever So Lucky may go straight to the lead, set a slow pace, and kick away in the homestretch for a convincing victory.
Perhaps the only horse that could possibly beat Ever So Lucky to the lead is Easter Gift, a Nick Zito-trainee that is coming off of a narrow defeat in the Pegasus Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth Park. In that race, a poor start compromised the colt's chances, and he just failed to catch the good colt Le Bernardin in a strong performance. Previously, Easter Gift had won a seven-furlong allowance race in gate-to-wire fashion, running the half-mile in a quick :45 4/5. Given the speed he showed that day, coupled with the fact that he is 2-for-2 over off tracks, makes him a logical contender for the victory.
Reload also deserves respect, as the Shug McGaughey-trainee was beaten just a neck last time out in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race at Belmont Park, a race in which he closed from well off of the pace after a poor start to be beaten for a neck. Owned by the Phipps Stable, Reload is a well-bred son of Hard Spun that still has a lot of room for improvement, and even a small step up in performance would make him a contender.
The two long shots are Five Sixteen and Love to Run. The first-mentioned colt has only won once from seven starts, but didn't run all that badly last time out in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), where he finished fifth. Love to Run has won two straight races, a maiden special weight and an allowance race, but would need to improve his performance in order to contend.
My selection is Easter Gift, due mainly to his connections, his perfect record on off tracks, and his ability to adapt to many pace scenarios. I envision him securing a perfect trip and finishing strongly in the homestretch to secure the victory. Ever So Lucky and Reload should certainly be tough in the stretch, and Street Life should be coming late at the finish, but I am fairly confident that Easter Gift will emerge the victor and stamp himself as a major contender for the Travers Stakes next month.
-Keelerman
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