Camp Victory garnered the biggest win of his career tonight at Hollywood Park when he was places first via disqualification in the $100,000 Los Angelas Stakes (gr. III).
Under Joseph Talamo, the colt sat just a few lengths off of the early lead in fifth as Cost of Freedom and Indian Firewater set a quick pace of :22 1/5 and :44 2/5. M One Rifle was sitting in third, followed by Amazombie along the rail.
Turning into the homestretch, Camp Victory was charging into contention on the far outside when Amazombie made a bid to escape from a pocket. Under Mike Smith, Amazombie swung to the outside and bumped hard with M One Rifle, who was drifting inward. Amazombie went on to win by a half-length over Camp Victory, who rallied strongly but couldn't quite catch him. However, after a steward's inquiry, Amazombie was disqualified and placed third for interfering with M One Rifle.
The final time was 1:08.87. The official order of finish was Camp Victory, M One Rifle, Amazombie, Indian Firewater, Cost of Freedom, and Gato Go Win.
-Keelerman
-Keelerman
Monday, May 30, 2011
AWESOME GEM WINS THE LONE STAR HANDICAP!
Eight-year-old veteran gelding Awesome Gem added yet another prize to his already illustrious resume when he rallied strongly in the three-path to defeat a quality field in the $300,000 Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III) at Lone Star Park.
Ridden by Robby Albrado, Awesome Gem settled into third early on as Lydia's Last Step and heavily favored Game On Dude set a moderate pace of :24 2/5 and :47 2/5. Awesome Gem circled up on the outside on the far turn to challenge for the lead and took over entering the homestretch. He then opened up a sizeable advantage in deep stretch, coming home strongly to win by a length over a fast-closing Flat Out.
Game On Dude flattened out to finish third, while Lydia's Last Step finished fourth. Thiskyhasnolimit trailed the field in a disappointing performance as the second choice.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Robby Albrado, Awesome Gem settled into third early on as Lydia's Last Step and heavily favored Game On Dude set a moderate pace of :24 2/5 and :47 2/5. Awesome Gem circled up on the outside on the far turn to challenge for the lead and took over entering the homestretch. He then opened up a sizeable advantage in deep stretch, coming home strongly to win by a length over a fast-closing Flat Out.
Game On Dude flattened out to finish third, while Lydia's Last Step finished fourth. Thiskyhasnolimit trailed the field in a disappointing performance as the second choice.
-Keelerman
THIRTYFIRSTSTREET WINS THE LONE STAR DERBY!
Thirtyfirststreet pulled off a shocking 21-1 upset in the Lone Star Derby at Lone Star Park, gamely holding off Close Ally to win the $200,000 event by a neck.
Under Chris Landeros, the colt tracked a slow early pace set by Aces N Kings, who rattled off fractions of :25.16 and :49.43. On the far turn he sprinted past Aces N Kings to take over the lead. Close Ally presented a strong challenge in the homestretch and appeared to stick his nose in front for a brief moment, but Thirtyfirststreet came back to win the mile and a sixteenth event by 1:42.55.
Derby Kitten rallied late for third, while Dreaminofthewin completed the superfecta. Uncle Sam failed to fire as the 8-5 favorite.
-Keelerman
Under Chris Landeros, the colt tracked a slow early pace set by Aces N Kings, who rattled off fractions of :25.16 and :49.43. On the far turn he sprinted past Aces N Kings to take over the lead. Close Ally presented a strong challenge in the homestretch and appeared to stick his nose in front for a brief moment, but Thirtyfirststreet came back to win the mile and a sixteenth event by 1:42.55.
Derby Kitten rallied late for third, while Dreaminofthewin completed the superfecta. Uncle Sam failed to fire as the 8-5 favorite.
-Keelerman
TIZWAY WINS THE MET MILE!
Tizway turned in one of the most explosive and dominating victories in the history of the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I) this afternoon, powering away in the stretch to win the race in a brilliant 1:32.90.
Ridden by Rajiv Maragh, the colt broke quickly from gate eleven and dueled with Tackleberry for the early lead. Haynesfield was sitting on the outside in third, with Caxia Eletronica and Stormy's Majesty right behind them. The early fractions were rather quick, with an opening quarter mile in :23.17 and a half in :45.57.
As the field rounded the turn, Tizway put away Tackleberry and began to draw away. Haynesfield was not responding despite urging from Ramon Dominguez.
Entering the homestretch, Tizway began to power away from the field and opened up a sizeable advantage. Caxia Eletronica was gamely giving chase, but was proving no match. Late in the stretch, 35-1 shot Rodman made a late run along the rail to secure second, but Tizway was never threatened en route to a brilliant victory.
Rodman finished second, followed by Caxia Eletronica and Aikenite.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Rajiv Maragh, the colt broke quickly from gate eleven and dueled with Tackleberry for the early lead. Haynesfield was sitting on the outside in third, with Caxia Eletronica and Stormy's Majesty right behind them. The early fractions were rather quick, with an opening quarter mile in :23.17 and a half in :45.57.
As the field rounded the turn, Tizway put away Tackleberry and began to draw away. Haynesfield was not responding despite urging from Ramon Dominguez.
Entering the homestretch, Tizway began to power away from the field and opened up a sizeable advantage. Caxia Eletronica was gamely giving chase, but was proving no match. Late in the stretch, 35-1 shot Rodman made a late run along the rail to secure second, but Tizway was never threatened en route to a brilliant victory.
Rodman finished second, followed by Caxia Eletronica and Aikenite.
-Keelerman
GRANDACIOUS WINS THE CINEMINE!
Grandacious, bet down to the 3-5 favorite, proved her backers correct by scoring a decisive two length victory in the $75,000 Cinemine Stakes this afternoon at Lone Star Park.
Ridden by M. Berry, the filly broke a step slowly but quickly settled a couple of lengths off of the early leaders in fourth. The pace was quick, with Icelain Diva and Lookinforchange racing just heads apart through an opening quarter mile in :22.35.
But Grandacious was full of run along the rail, and Berry swung her into the three path to challenge for the lead. Grandacious responded immediately, charging past the leaders to take a clear lead turning for home. Second choice Aide made a bold run at her, but Grandacious stayed on well to win the race in 1:23.40.
Aide finished many, many lengths clear of Floatnpastya, who finished third. Come Slew Me came from way back to complete the superfecta at 40-1.
-Keelerman
Ridden by M. Berry, the filly broke a step slowly but quickly settled a couple of lengths off of the early leaders in fourth. The pace was quick, with Icelain Diva and Lookinforchange racing just heads apart through an opening quarter mile in :22.35.
But Grandacious was full of run along the rail, and Berry swung her into the three path to challenge for the lead. Grandacious responded immediately, charging past the leaders to take a clear lead turning for home. Second choice Aide made a bold run at her, but Grandacious stayed on well to win the race in 1:23.40.
Aide finished many, many lengths clear of Floatnpastya, who finished third. Come Slew Me came from way back to complete the superfecta at 40-1.
-Keelerman
SASSY IMAGE WINS THE WINNING COLORS!
Sassy Image rallied furiously in the final eighth of a mile to score a narrow victory in the $100,000 Winning Colors Stakes (gr. III).
Ridden by Corey Lanerie, the filly -- who was sent off as the 4-5 favorite off of a victory in the Humana Distaff earlier this month -- settled into fifth early on as Starlight Starbrite set a fast pace up front, running quarters of :21 4/5 and :44 2/5.
Turning for home, Sassy Image was inching closer but was still fifth with many lengths to make up. Starlight Starbrite was still clinging to the lead, but Beat the Blues was coming on strongly and took over the lead with about an eighth of a mile to go.
Sassy Image appeared to have too much left to do, but was charging home gamely. Even with just forty yards to go it looked as though Beat the Blues would pull a 10-1 upset. But Sassy Image stuck her head in front in the shadow of the wire to win her second straight graded stakes race. The final time was a very sharp 1:08.59.
Beat the Blues finished well clear of Fortune Play, who rallied late for third. Jocata came on to complete the superfecta under Calvin Borel.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Corey Lanerie, the filly -- who was sent off as the 4-5 favorite off of a victory in the Humana Distaff earlier this month -- settled into fifth early on as Starlight Starbrite set a fast pace up front, running quarters of :21 4/5 and :44 2/5.
Turning for home, Sassy Image was inching closer but was still fifth with many lengths to make up. Starlight Starbrite was still clinging to the lead, but Beat the Blues was coming on strongly and took over the lead with about an eighth of a mile to go.
Sassy Image appeared to have too much left to do, but was charging home gamely. Even with just forty yards to go it looked as though Beat the Blues would pull a 10-1 upset. But Sassy Image stuck her head in front in the shadow of the wire to win her second straight graded stakes race. The final time was a very sharp 1:08.59.
Beat the Blues finished well clear of Fortune Play, who rallied late for third. Jocata came on to complete the superfecta under Calvin Borel.
-Keelerman
DEAN'S KITTEN WINS THE DALLAS TURF CUP!
Dean's Kitten went straight to the lead in the $150,000 Dallas Turf Cup Stakes this afternoon at Lone Star Park and never looked back en route to a decisive two length victory.
Under Julien Leparoux, who won the Ouija Board Distaff Stakes on Wasted Tears earlier on the card, Dean's Kitten was able to establish a narrow lead in the early going as he set a moderate pace of :24.01 and :47.40. In second was Unbridled Heart, while second choice Expansion was last.
As the field rounded the far turn, Dean's Kitten disposed of Unbridled Heart and began to kick clear. Down the homestretch he continued on strongly, running a mile in 1:34.73 on his way to a final time for the mile and a sixteenth in 1:40.90.
Expansion, who ran into some traffic in the stretch, rallied along the inside to finish second, while Unbridled Heart finished third.
-Keelerman
Under Julien Leparoux, who won the Ouija Board Distaff Stakes on Wasted Tears earlier on the card, Dean's Kitten was able to establish a narrow lead in the early going as he set a moderate pace of :24.01 and :47.40. In second was Unbridled Heart, while second choice Expansion was last.
As the field rounded the far turn, Dean's Kitten disposed of Unbridled Heart and began to kick clear. Down the homestretch he continued on strongly, running a mile in 1:34.73 on his way to a final time for the mile and a sixteenth in 1:40.90.
Expansion, who ran into some traffic in the stretch, rallied along the inside to finish second, while Unbridled Heart finished third.
-Keelerman
IRISH GYPSY WINS THE VALID EXPECTATIONS!
Irish Gypsy proved extremely game in the $75,000 Valid Expectations Stakes this afternoon, rallying furiously to catch Cosmo Girl in the shadow of the wire to win by a head.
Under Martin Garcia, the Bob Baffert-trained filly sat about six lengths a blazing early pace of :21 4/5 early on before circling into contention on the far turn. But Cosmo Girl, the pacesetter, was still clinging to the lead and staying on strongly. It took the length of the stretch for Irish Gypsy to wear Cosmo Girl down, but eventually did so to win in the final yards.
Cosmo Girl finished well clear of third-place finisher Tin Top Cat. She's A Bond Girl completed the superfecta.
-Keelerman
Under Martin Garcia, the Bob Baffert-trained filly sat about six lengths a blazing early pace of :21 4/5 early on before circling into contention on the far turn. But Cosmo Girl, the pacesetter, was still clinging to the lead and staying on strongly. It took the length of the stretch for Irish Gypsy to wear Cosmo Girl down, but eventually did so to win in the final yards.
Cosmo Girl finished well clear of third-place finisher Tin Top Cat. She's A Bond Girl completed the superfecta.
-Keelerman
MEMORIAL DAY SELECTIONS
Today is one of the finest days for racing of the year, with the historica Met Mile being run at Belmont Park and six stakes races at Lone Star Park on the schedule. Here are my brief thoughts and selections for these and other races, as well as J.R.'s picks.
Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I)
This race is filled with quality runners, but no real standout. I would not be entirely surprised to see any of the eleven starters cross under the wire first.
The horse I like is Tizway, winner of the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) here last year. His best races have come at this track, so it's obvious that he loves the surface. He finished a strong third in the Charles Town Classic Stakes (gr. III) last time out while running nine furlongs around three turns -- a situation in which he is likely not his best. He returns to his favorite track and distance today, and I feel that he will be able to win despite drawing gate eleven.
The morning line favorite is Haynesfield, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) and Suburban Handicap (gr. II) last year. He loves Belmont Park, but failed to fire as the odds-on favorite last time out in the Westchester Handicap. Chances are he will rebound and run a better performance this time out, but I'm not entirely sure if he can defeat this field.
Tackleberry, who won three stakes races at Gulfstream Park this spring, will be racing on lasix for the first time after bleeding when fourth in the Charles Town Classic. If he can work out a good stalking trip, he should have every chance in the stretch.
Aikenite has won two straight grade II stakes races at seven furlongs, but I have the suspicion that a mile may be just a bit too far for him. Caixa Eletronica was dominating when winning the Westchester, and should be right in the mix this afternoon. Soaring Empire is talented, but must overcome breaking from the rail. Yawanna Twist is a consistent horse, but may just not be good enough to win. Ibboyee was a strong third in the Churchill Downs Stakes last time out, but was taking advantage of a bias and doesn't seem to care for the Belmont main track.
As for Rodman, he ran competitive speed figures back in late 2009, but then didn't race again for fourteen months. Returned to the races earlier this spring, he has made two starts, running second in an allowance race before easily winning the Irish Tower Stakes last time out. Making his third start off the layoff, I wouldn't be surprised if he finished in the top three.
My picks are:
1 Tizway
2 Caixa Eletronica
3 Haynesfield
4 Tackleberry
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Caixa Eletronica
2 Haynesfield
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Tizway
Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III)
Only five horses are scheduled to run in this year's edition of the Lone Star Park Handicap, but it's a quality field. The morning line favorite is Game On Dude, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) earlier this spring. But he could only manage a second-place finish in the Charles Town Classic Stakes last time out, and at this mile and a sixteenth distance he may be vulnerable.
One of my favorite horses, Awesome Gem, is also in this race. An eight-year-old gelding, his victory in the the 2010 Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I) and third in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) rank among his greatest performances. He has made three starts this year, disappointing in the first two -- but his last race was very good indeed. He finished fourth in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs, beaten just a half-length after encountering serious traffic in the stretch. He finished second in the Lone Star Park Handicap last year, and I believe that he is capable of performing at least that well this year.
Thiskyhasnolimit won the local prep for this race, the Texas Mile Stakes (gr. III) over a nice horse in Gladding. A mile and a sixteenth is likely his best distance, so he should have every chance at winning this race if Game On Dude doesn't run his very best.
But I'm afraid that I have to pick Awesome Gem to win, even though he may be up against it with little pace to run at today.
My picks are:
1 Awesome Gem
2 Game On Dude
3 Thiskyhasnolimit
4 Flat Out
5 Lydia's Last Step
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Thiskyhasnolimit
2 Game On Dude
3 Flat Out
4 Awesome Gem
5 Lydia's Last Step
Lone Star Derby
A fascinating field of nine has turned out for the fifteenth running of the Lone Star Derby, which will be run on grass for the first time this year.
The slight morning line favorite is Uncle Sam, a colt trained by Bob Baffert who finished second in the Alydar Stakes last time out. He has earned the biggest Beyer speed figure in the race, but this will be his first start on turf.
I have gone back and forth trying to decide who to pick, and finally settled on Derby Kitten. The colt won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland two starts back before running thirteenth in the Kentucky Derby. He has run well in the past, and his sire was the Eclipse champion turf male of 2004, so I believe that he will relish the conditions of this race and win impressively.
Dreaminofthewin, who finished third in the Texas Mile Stakes against older horses last time out, is another colt that I feel could perform well. He has been running against some very good horses as of late, including Thiskyhasnolimit, Gladding, Alternation, and Archarcharch, and may be capable of winning this race if he takes to the turf.
My selections are:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Uncle Sam
3 Dreaminofthewin
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Awesome Bet
2 Derby Kitten
3 Uncle Sam
OTHER SELECTIONS
Cinemine Stakes
Keelerman: Grandacious
J.R.: Love Dair
Dallas Turf Cup Stakes
Keelerman: J J's Indy
J.R.: Expansion
Valid Expectations Stakes
Keelerman: Irish Gypsy
J.R.: Gleaming
Ouija Board Distaff Stakes (gr. III)
Keelerman: Wasted Tears
J.R.: Wasted Tears
-Keelerman
Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I)
This race is filled with quality runners, but no real standout. I would not be entirely surprised to see any of the eleven starters cross under the wire first.
The horse I like is Tizway, winner of the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) here last year. His best races have come at this track, so it's obvious that he loves the surface. He finished a strong third in the Charles Town Classic Stakes (gr. III) last time out while running nine furlongs around three turns -- a situation in which he is likely not his best. He returns to his favorite track and distance today, and I feel that he will be able to win despite drawing gate eleven.
The morning line favorite is Haynesfield, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) and Suburban Handicap (gr. II) last year. He loves Belmont Park, but failed to fire as the odds-on favorite last time out in the Westchester Handicap. Chances are he will rebound and run a better performance this time out, but I'm not entirely sure if he can defeat this field.
Tackleberry, who won three stakes races at Gulfstream Park this spring, will be racing on lasix for the first time after bleeding when fourth in the Charles Town Classic. If he can work out a good stalking trip, he should have every chance in the stretch.
Aikenite has won two straight grade II stakes races at seven furlongs, but I have the suspicion that a mile may be just a bit too far for him. Caixa Eletronica was dominating when winning the Westchester, and should be right in the mix this afternoon. Soaring Empire is talented, but must overcome breaking from the rail. Yawanna Twist is a consistent horse, but may just not be good enough to win. Ibboyee was a strong third in the Churchill Downs Stakes last time out, but was taking advantage of a bias and doesn't seem to care for the Belmont main track.
As for Rodman, he ran competitive speed figures back in late 2009, but then didn't race again for fourteen months. Returned to the races earlier this spring, he has made two starts, running second in an allowance race before easily winning the Irish Tower Stakes last time out. Making his third start off the layoff, I wouldn't be surprised if he finished in the top three.
My picks are:
1 Tizway
2 Caixa Eletronica
3 Haynesfield
4 Tackleberry
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Caixa Eletronica
2 Haynesfield
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Tizway
Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III)
Only five horses are scheduled to run in this year's edition of the Lone Star Park Handicap, but it's a quality field. The morning line favorite is Game On Dude, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) earlier this spring. But he could only manage a second-place finish in the Charles Town Classic Stakes last time out, and at this mile and a sixteenth distance he may be vulnerable.
One of my favorite horses, Awesome Gem, is also in this race. An eight-year-old gelding, his victory in the the 2010 Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I) and third in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) rank among his greatest performances. He has made three starts this year, disappointing in the first two -- but his last race was very good indeed. He finished fourth in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs, beaten just a half-length after encountering serious traffic in the stretch. He finished second in the Lone Star Park Handicap last year, and I believe that he is capable of performing at least that well this year.
Thiskyhasnolimit won the local prep for this race, the Texas Mile Stakes (gr. III) over a nice horse in Gladding. A mile and a sixteenth is likely his best distance, so he should have every chance at winning this race if Game On Dude doesn't run his very best.
But I'm afraid that I have to pick Awesome Gem to win, even though he may be up against it with little pace to run at today.
My picks are:
1 Awesome Gem
2 Game On Dude
3 Thiskyhasnolimit
4 Flat Out
5 Lydia's Last Step
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Thiskyhasnolimit
2 Game On Dude
3 Flat Out
4 Awesome Gem
5 Lydia's Last Step
Lone Star Derby
A fascinating field of nine has turned out for the fifteenth running of the Lone Star Derby, which will be run on grass for the first time this year.
The slight morning line favorite is Uncle Sam, a colt trained by Bob Baffert who finished second in the Alydar Stakes last time out. He has earned the biggest Beyer speed figure in the race, but this will be his first start on turf.
I have gone back and forth trying to decide who to pick, and finally settled on Derby Kitten. The colt won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland two starts back before running thirteenth in the Kentucky Derby. He has run well in the past, and his sire was the Eclipse champion turf male of 2004, so I believe that he will relish the conditions of this race and win impressively.
Dreaminofthewin, who finished third in the Texas Mile Stakes against older horses last time out, is another colt that I feel could perform well. He has been running against some very good horses as of late, including Thiskyhasnolimit, Gladding, Alternation, and Archarcharch, and may be capable of winning this race if he takes to the turf.
My selections are:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Uncle Sam
3 Dreaminofthewin
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Awesome Bet
2 Derby Kitten
3 Uncle Sam
OTHER SELECTIONS
Cinemine Stakes
Keelerman: Grandacious
J.R.: Love Dair
Dallas Turf Cup Stakes
Keelerman: J J's Indy
J.R.: Expansion
Valid Expectations Stakes
Keelerman: Irish Gypsy
J.R.: Gleaming
Ouija Board Distaff Stakes (gr. III)
Keelerman: Wasted Tears
J.R.: Wasted Tears
-Keelerman
WASTED TEARS WIN THE OUIJA BOARD!
Wasted Tears dominated in her first start of 2011, leaving six rivals in the dust as she flew to victory in the $200,000 Ouija Board Distaff Stakes (gr. III) this afternoon at Lone Star Park.
Under Julien Leparoux, the filly was beaten to the lead by Sheer Beauty, who was intent upon gaining the early lead from gate one. The early fractions were quick -- :22.77 and :46.26. Wasted Tears took over the lead after that and began to power away from her rivals. She entered the homestretch with a decisive lead and maintained it to the wire, winning by about four or five lengths in a sharp 1:34.06.
It was her third consecutive victory in the Ouija Board. Category Seven finished second, while Sheer Beauty held on to third.
-Keelerman
Under Julien Leparoux, the filly was beaten to the lead by Sheer Beauty, who was intent upon gaining the early lead from gate one. The early fractions were quick -- :22.77 and :46.26. Wasted Tears took over the lead after that and began to power away from her rivals. She entered the homestretch with a decisive lead and maintained it to the wire, winning by about four or five lengths in a sharp 1:34.06.
It was her third consecutive victory in the Ouija Board. Category Seven finished second, while Sheer Beauty held on to third.
-Keelerman
Sunday, May 29, 2011
A Belmont Stakes-Winning Trend
Over the last several years, a trend has developed in the historic Belmont Stakes that may just crop up again this year.
Here it is: the last three winners of the Belmont (and four of the last five) had never won a stakes race prior to the Belmont.
In 2010, Drosselmeyer -- after competing well in a variety of stakes races during the spring -- wore down First Dude and held off Fly Down to secure his first stakes victory in the Belmont Stakes.
In 2009, Summer Bird blew past Mine That Bird and Dunkirk to add a stakes win to his resumé.
In 2008, Da' Tara went straight to the lead and powered home to a five-length victory in the Belmont Stakes -- his first stakes win.
And finally, in 2006, Jazil outstayed Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver to win the Belmont Stakes by a length and a quarter. Yes -- it was his first stakes victory.
The Belmont Stakes has become a race that is won by late-devoloping horses that can stay farther than their more heralded opponents.
Of the four above-mentioned Belmont winners, all were mild to extreme longshots -- but in many cases, the signs of talent were there. Drosselmeyer never showed the tactical speed and instant acceleration that wins shorter races, but time after time in the spring of 2010 he showed the ability to stay on to the finish -- he never tired. This long, slow grind enabled him to win the Belmont Stakes.
Summer Bird's potential was even easier to spot. He had closed furiously to finish third in the Arkansas Derby; then closed well to finish sixth in the Kentucky Derby after entering the homestretch extremely wide. With a patient ride in the Belmont, he was able to finish strongly and blow past Mine That Bird for victory.
Jazil also showed signs of being a nice horse prior to winning the Belmont. In the Kentucky Derby, he dropped back to last early on from post position one before rallying mildly to finish fourth. Sent off at 6-1 in the Belmont Stakes, his staying power enabled him to outgrind his opponents for a workmanlike victory.
Only Da' Tara gave no hints as to the performance he was about to give in the Belmont. He came into the Belmont off of an unimpressive second-place finish in the Barbaro Stakes at Pimlico. He then pulled off his shocking 38-1 upset in the Belmont.
So the recent trend for Belmont winners has been to enter the race with no prior stakes wins and pull an upset.
This year, there are a few major contenders entering the Belmont who will attempt to keep this trend alive. The top chance is Nehro, who has finished second in the Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, and Kentucky Derby -- but has never won a stakes race. The late-running colt will likely be one of the favorites in the Belmont.
Then there is Master of Hounds, the European colt who finished a closing fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Despite being group I placed -- and losing by just a nose in the UAE Derby -- he too has never won a stakes race. A victory in the Belmont would keep the new trend around for another year.
Finally, there is Prime Cut, a promising youngster who could prove to be at his very best traversing the sweeping turns at Belmont Park. After defeating the highly regarded Bind in an allowance race, he finished second in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and third in the one-turn Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont. He strike me as a true two-turn colt who should relish the mile and a half distance of the Belmont Stakes.
So there you have it -- a bizarre trend, and three horses who could keep it alive. Any thoughts?
-Keelerman
Here it is: the last three winners of the Belmont (and four of the last five) had never won a stakes race prior to the Belmont.
In 2010, Drosselmeyer -- after competing well in a variety of stakes races during the spring -- wore down First Dude and held off Fly Down to secure his first stakes victory in the Belmont Stakes.
In 2009, Summer Bird blew past Mine That Bird and Dunkirk to add a stakes win to his resumé.
In 2008, Da' Tara went straight to the lead and powered home to a five-length victory in the Belmont Stakes -- his first stakes win.
And finally, in 2006, Jazil outstayed Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver to win the Belmont Stakes by a length and a quarter. Yes -- it was his first stakes victory.
The Belmont Stakes has become a race that is won by late-devoloping horses that can stay farther than their more heralded opponents.
Of the four above-mentioned Belmont winners, all were mild to extreme longshots -- but in many cases, the signs of talent were there. Drosselmeyer never showed the tactical speed and instant acceleration that wins shorter races, but time after time in the spring of 2010 he showed the ability to stay on to the finish -- he never tired. This long, slow grind enabled him to win the Belmont Stakes.
Summer Bird's potential was even easier to spot. He had closed furiously to finish third in the Arkansas Derby; then closed well to finish sixth in the Kentucky Derby after entering the homestretch extremely wide. With a patient ride in the Belmont, he was able to finish strongly and blow past Mine That Bird for victory.
Jazil also showed signs of being a nice horse prior to winning the Belmont. In the Kentucky Derby, he dropped back to last early on from post position one before rallying mildly to finish fourth. Sent off at 6-1 in the Belmont Stakes, his staying power enabled him to outgrind his opponents for a workmanlike victory.
Only Da' Tara gave no hints as to the performance he was about to give in the Belmont. He came into the Belmont off of an unimpressive second-place finish in the Barbaro Stakes at Pimlico. He then pulled off his shocking 38-1 upset in the Belmont.
So the recent trend for Belmont winners has been to enter the race with no prior stakes wins and pull an upset.
This year, there are a few major contenders entering the Belmont who will attempt to keep this trend alive. The top chance is Nehro, who has finished second in the Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, and Kentucky Derby -- but has never won a stakes race. The late-running colt will likely be one of the favorites in the Belmont.
Then there is Master of Hounds, the European colt who finished a closing fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Despite being group I placed -- and losing by just a nose in the UAE Derby -- he too has never won a stakes race. A victory in the Belmont would keep the new trend around for another year.
Finally, there is Prime Cut, a promising youngster who could prove to be at his very best traversing the sweeping turns at Belmont Park. After defeating the highly regarded Bind in an allowance race, he finished second in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and third in the one-turn Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont. He strike me as a true two-turn colt who should relish the mile and a half distance of the Belmont Stakes.
So there you have it -- a bizarre trend, and three horses who could keep it alive. Any thoughts?
-Keelerman
Saturday, May 28, 2011
WILLCOX INN WINS THE AMERICAN CLASSIC STAKES!
Willcox Inn fired his best shot as the 3-2 favorite in the American Classic Stakes this afternoon at Arlington Park, wearing down Crimson Knight to win the mile and a sixteenth event by three lengths.
Under Robby Albarado, the colt sat in second early on behind Crimson Knight as the latter set a very slow pace over a turf course labeled yielding. On the far turn, Willcox Inn pounced and took command in the stretch, drawing away powerfully to win the race in impressive fashion. The final time was 1:49.51.
Suntracer rallied well for second, finishing a nose in front of Extensive, who was in turn a nose in front of Crimson Knight who tired late for fourth. Pulpitarian, Legendary King, Forbidden Forest, Fort Larned, and Sandy's Diamond completed the order of finish.
-Keelerman
Under Robby Albarado, the colt sat in second early on behind Crimson Knight as the latter set a very slow pace over a turf course labeled yielding. On the far turn, Willcox Inn pounced and took command in the stretch, drawing away powerfully to win the race in impressive fashion. The final time was 1:49.51.
Suntracer rallied well for second, finishing a nose in front of Extensive, who was in turn a nose in front of Crimson Knight who tired late for fourth. Pulpitarian, Legendary King, Forbidden Forest, Fort Larned, and Sandy's Diamond completed the order of finish.
-Keelerman
KEERTANA WINS THE LOUISVILLE HANDICAP!
Keertana showed just how tough she is when she defeated males in the grade III Louisville Handicap at a mile and a half this afternoon at Churchill Downs.
Under Jose Lezcano, Keertana secured a perfect trip while fourth in the early going, just in behind the leaders. Guys Reward was setting a slow pace up front, escaping with a :25 second opening quarter, a :51-and-change half-mile, and a turtle-like 1:19-and-change for the opening three-quarters of a mile. He was being tracked on the inside by Free Fighter, with El Crespo sitting third. Keertana was in between horses, with Musketier racing three-wide in fifth.
As the field rounded the final of three turns, Guys Reward was still clinging to the lead and was beginning to pick up speed. Suddenly, Keertana shot through along the inside and confronted him for the lead. Entering the homestretch, the two were head-to-head for the lead, neither giving an inch.
Throughout the stretch run, the two horses battled, the colt on the outside, the mare on the rail. Despite having next to no racing room, Keertana gamely challenged for the lead.
Then, on the outside, Bearpath began to fly home. With ground devouring strides he drew closer to the fleeting pair up front, and appeared to be on his way to victory.
But then the wire approached. The trio hit the wire as one, and it was impossible to tell who had won.
After several minutes of anticipation, the results of the photo finish were revealed. Keertana had courageously stuck her nose in front of Bearpath to win the race by the shortest of noses. Guys Reward finished third, just nosed out in what was one of the strongest performances of his career -- if not the strongest.
It was truly an amazing race.
-Keelerman
Under Jose Lezcano, Keertana secured a perfect trip while fourth in the early going, just in behind the leaders. Guys Reward was setting a slow pace up front, escaping with a :25 second opening quarter, a :51-and-change half-mile, and a turtle-like 1:19-and-change for the opening three-quarters of a mile. He was being tracked on the inside by Free Fighter, with El Crespo sitting third. Keertana was in between horses, with Musketier racing three-wide in fifth.
As the field rounded the final of three turns, Guys Reward was still clinging to the lead and was beginning to pick up speed. Suddenly, Keertana shot through along the inside and confronted him for the lead. Entering the homestretch, the two were head-to-head for the lead, neither giving an inch.
Throughout the stretch run, the two horses battled, the colt on the outside, the mare on the rail. Despite having next to no racing room, Keertana gamely challenged for the lead.
Then, on the outside, Bearpath began to fly home. With ground devouring strides he drew closer to the fleeting pair up front, and appeared to be on his way to victory.
But then the wire approached. The trio hit the wire as one, and it was impossible to tell who had won.
After several minutes of anticipation, the results of the photo finish were revealed. Keertana had courageously stuck her nose in front of Bearpath to win the race by the shortest of noses. Guys Reward finished third, just nosed out in what was one of the strongest performances of his career -- if not the strongest.
It was truly an amazing race.
-Keelerman
Saturday, May 21, 2011
SHACKLEFORD WINS THE PREAKNESS STAKES!
Shackleford went straight to the lead and held off the late run of Animal Kingdom to win the 136th running of the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) by a half-length.
Under Jesus Castanon, the colt broke well and battled through extreme fractions with Flashpoint for the early lead. The opening quarter was run in :22 3/5 and the half in :46 4/5. In the meantime, Kentucky Derby winner and favorite Animal Kingdom was sitting next-to-last, with only Dialed In behind him.
Turning for home, Shackleford kicked clear from Flashpoint and opened up a decisive lead. Animal Kingdom was charging home gamely, and appeared to be on his way to victory, but Shackleford proved game to the finish and held off the Derby winner by a half-length. The final time was 1:56.27.
Astrology rallied up the fence for third, while Dialed In came home fourth.
-Keelerman
Under Jesus Castanon, the colt broke well and battled through extreme fractions with Flashpoint for the early lead. The opening quarter was run in :22 3/5 and the half in :46 4/5. In the meantime, Kentucky Derby winner and favorite Animal Kingdom was sitting next-to-last, with only Dialed In behind him.
Turning for home, Shackleford kicked clear from Flashpoint and opened up a decisive lead. Animal Kingdom was charging home gamely, and appeared to be on his way to victory, but Shackleford proved game to the finish and held off the Derby winner by a half-length. The final time was 1:56.27.
Astrology rallied up the fence for third, while Dialed In came home fourth.
-Keelerman
Pimlico Update #8
The post parade has been completed. Norman Asbjornson struck me as being extremely calm, as did Mucho Macho Man. Astrology was on his toes, as was Concealed Identity. No one looked particularly upset.
Now it is post time. Who will win the 136th Preakness Stakes? We will know in just a few moments.
-Keelerman
Now it is post time. Who will win the 136th Preakness Stakes? We will know in just a few moments.
-Keelerman
Pimlico Update #7
5:57 - Twenty minutes to post time now for the Preakness. Animal Kingdom is still the 5-2 favorite, but Dialed In's odds have actually been drifting upward. He is 4-1. Mucho Macho Man is still holding steady at 9-2. The fourth choice is Dance City at 11-1.
The win pool total is at nearly $10,000,000, with over $2,000,000 alone on Animal Kingdom.
Several of the Preakness starters were saddled on the turf course, and Sway Away and Shackleford seemed to be a bit nervous.
Of the frontrunners in this race -- Shackleford, Flashpoint, Midnight Interlude, and Dance City -- who will get to the lead? Will one horse take a decisive lead, or will two or more battle together for the early lead?
My selection is still Mucho Macho Man. J.R. still likes Astrology.
-Keelerman
The win pool total is at nearly $10,000,000, with over $2,000,000 alone on Animal Kingdom.
Several of the Preakness starters were saddled on the turf course, and Sway Away and Shackleford seemed to be a bit nervous.
Of the frontrunners in this race -- Shackleford, Flashpoint, Midnight Interlude, and Dance City -- who will get to the lead? Will one horse take a decisive lead, or will two or more battle together for the early lead?
My selection is still Mucho Macho Man. J.R. still likes Astrology.
-Keelerman
Pimlico Update #6
5:35 - It is currently 43 minutes until post time for the 136th running of the Preakness Stakes. Here is an update on the odds:
1 Astrology 14-1
2 Norman Asbjornson 40-1
3 King Congie 20-1
4 Flashpoint 15-1
5 Shackleford 11-1
6 Sway Away 12-1
7 Midnight Interlude 12-1
8 Dance City 10-1
9 Mucho Macho Man 9-2
10 Dialed In 4-1
11 Animal Kingdom 3-1
12 Isn't He Perfect 25-1
13 Concealed Identity 23-1
14 Mr. Commons 30-1
-Keelerman
1 Astrology 14-1
2 Norman Asbjornson 40-1
3 King Congie 20-1
4 Flashpoint 15-1
5 Shackleford 11-1
6 Sway Away 12-1
7 Midnight Interlude 12-1
8 Dance City 10-1
9 Mucho Macho Man 9-2
10 Dialed In 4-1
11 Animal Kingdom 3-1
12 Isn't He Perfect 25-1
13 Concealed Identity 23-1
14 Mr. Commons 30-1
-Keelerman
PADDY O'PRADO WINS THE DIXIE STAKES!
Paddy O'Prado rallied furiously from far behind to win the Dixie Stakes (gr. II) at Pimlico Race Course this afternoon.
The heavy favorite at 3-5, Paddy O'Prado sat last in the early behind a slow pace. But when asked for his run by jockey Kent Desormeaux, the colt simply exploded past everyone to win the race by two lengths in 1:53.56.
Longshot Baryshnikov, who set a very slow pace, took a clear lead into the homestretch but was caught late and ended up second. Bim Bam came on late for third, while Pocket Patch completed the superfecta.
-Keelerman
The heavy favorite at 3-5, Paddy O'Prado sat last in the early behind a slow pace. But when asked for his run by jockey Kent Desormeaux, the colt simply exploded past everyone to win the race by two lengths in 1:53.56.
Longshot Baryshnikov, who set a very slow pace, took a clear lead into the homestretch but was caught late and ended up second. Bim Bam came on late for third, while Pocket Patch completed the superfecta.
-Keelerman
Pimlico Update #5
It is now seven minutes until post time for the Dixie Stakes (gr. II). Paddy O'Prado, an Eclipse award-finalist last year, will be making his first start of the season and is the 4-5 favorite. The lightly-raced Slews Answer is the second choice at 7-2, while Baryshnikov is 6-1. I can't really see Paddy O'Prado losing, but then again, we already saw Shared Account lose at 3-2 earlier on the card.
Animal Kingdom is currently the 5-2 favorite in the Preakness betting, while Dialed In is 7-2 and Mucho Macho Man 4-1. No other horse has less than double-digit odds.
-Keelerman
Animal Kingdom is currently the 5-2 favorite in the Preakness betting, while Dialed In is 7-2 and Mucho Macho Man 4-1. No other horse has less than double-digit odds.
-Keelerman
Pimlico Update #4
4:47 - Only one more race to go at Pimlico before the Preakness, that being the grade II Dixie Stakes where Paddy O'Prado will be making his first start since finishing fifth in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) last year. He is currently the 4-5 favorite.
Here with his top three selections for the Preakness is Dan J, who I have interviewed on this blog in the past.
1 Animal Kingdom
2 Shackleford
3 Dialed In
-Keelerman
Here with his top three selections for the Preakness is Dan J, who I have interviewed on this blog in the past.
1 Animal Kingdom
2 Shackleford
3 Dialed In
-Keelerman
APART WINS THE WILLIAM DONALD SCHAEFER!
6-5 favorite Apart wore down a stubborn Colizeo in deep stretch to win the $100,000 William Donald Schaefer Memorial Stakes (gr. III) by a neck this afternoon at Pimlico.
Ridden by Garrett Gomez, the colt sat just a couple of lengths off of a very slow early pace set by Colizeo while racing three wide. He inched closer to the lead on the far turn and pounced entering the homestretch. A long stretch duel ensued, during which Colizeo proved extremely game. But Apart was equally courageous, and got his head in front just before the wire.
Icabad Crane finished third.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Garrett Gomez, the colt sat just a couple of lengths off of a very slow early pace set by Colizeo while racing three wide. He inched closer to the lead on the far turn and pounced entering the homestretch. A long stretch duel ensued, during which Colizeo proved extremely game. But Apart was equally courageous, and got his head in front just before the wire.
Icabad Crane finished third.
-Keelerman
Pimlico Update #3
4:15 - Well, Shared Account obviously wasn't quite ready to run under the circumstances today, as the Gallorette Handicap went to No Explaining in sharp fashion. The winner showed a terrific turn of foot entering the homestretch and held off late runs on both sides to score her first stakes victory.
Next up is the William Donald Schaefer Memorial Stakes, won last year by eventual Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) winner Blame. Coincidentally, this year's Schaefer favorite, Apart, is trained by Blame's trainer.
I like Apart to win (like most everyone, he's currently 6-5) but I also like Colizeo and Icabad Crane for second and third.
The track has seemed to be favoring closers, although speed hasn't been doing all that badly.
-Keelerman
Next up is the William Donald Schaefer Memorial Stakes, won last year by eventual Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) winner Blame. Coincidentally, this year's Schaefer favorite, Apart, is trained by Blame's trainer.
I like Apart to win (like most everyone, he's currently 6-5) but I also like Colizeo and Icabad Crane for second and third.
The track has seemed to be favoring closers, although speed hasn't been doing all that badly.
-Keelerman
NO EXPLAINING WINS THE GALLORETTE HANDICAP!
No Explaining exploded past longshot My Sweet Nanana at the top of the Pimlico homestretch to win the Gallorette Handicap (gr. III) by a length.
Under John Velazquez, the filly sat in third during the early stages of the 1 1/16th miles turf event, five to six lengths off of My Sweet Nanana who held a clear early lead. In second was another longshot in Baltimore Belle, while 3-2 favorite Shared Account -- making her first start since winning last year's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf -- was next-to-last.
As the field rounded the far turn, No Explaining was guided to the outside by Velazquez and simply exploded past My Sweet Nanana to take the lead. Desert Sage and Dyna Waltz were closing in on her inside and outside, but No Explaining held them both off to win the race impressively.
Desert Sage and Dyna Waltz finished in a dead-heat for second, while Shared Account closed mildly for fourth.
-Keelerman
Under John Velazquez, the filly sat in third during the early stages of the 1 1/16th miles turf event, five to six lengths off of My Sweet Nanana who held a clear early lead. In second was another longshot in Baltimore Belle, while 3-2 favorite Shared Account -- making her first start since winning last year's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf -- was next-to-last.
As the field rounded the far turn, No Explaining was guided to the outside by Velazquez and simply exploded past My Sweet Nanana to take the lead. Desert Sage and Dyna Waltz were closing in on her inside and outside, but No Explaining held them both off to win the race impressively.
Desert Sage and Dyna Waltz finished in a dead-heat for second, while Shared Account closed mildly for fourth.
-Keelerman
Pimlico Update #2
3:25 - Ventana set fast fractions. His rider lost his whip in the homestretch. On top of everything, he had to survive a rider's objection. But Ventana is the official winner of the Maryland Sprint Handicap in the sharp time of 1:09 4/5.
The next race on the card is the grade III Gallorette Handicap at a mile and a sixteenth on turf, where the 2010 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I) winner Shared Account will make her first start of the year. 4-5 on the morning line, she is actually only 2-1 right now. This is probably due to several reasons, including the distance (it may be too short for her), the track conditions (it may be too wet for her) and the long layoff.
I feel that No Explaining may be able to pull off the upset. She has made four starts in stakes company so far, all of them in 2010. Each and every time she finished third. But she's proven herself over yielding ground, and may be able to pull off an upset if she gets a good trip.
As for Preakness Stakes odds, Animal Kingdom is currently the favorite at 3-1. Dialed In has been bet all the way down to 7-2, and was actually the co-favorite at 3-1 for a while. Mucho Macho Man is also receiving a great deal of play.
-Keelerman
The next race on the card is the grade III Gallorette Handicap at a mile and a sixteenth on turf, where the 2010 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I) winner Shared Account will make her first start of the year. 4-5 on the morning line, she is actually only 2-1 right now. This is probably due to several reasons, including the distance (it may be too short for her), the track conditions (it may be too wet for her) and the long layoff.
I feel that No Explaining may be able to pull off the upset. She has made four starts in stakes company so far, all of them in 2010. Each and every time she finished third. But she's proven herself over yielding ground, and may be able to pull off an upset if she gets a good trip.
As for Preakness Stakes odds, Animal Kingdom is currently the favorite at 3-1. Dialed In has been bet all the way down to 7-2, and was actually the co-favorite at 3-1 for a while. Mucho Macho Man is also receiving a great deal of play.
-Keelerman
VENTANA WINS THE MARYLAND SPRINT HANDICAP!
Ventana showed a great deal of courage in the homestretch of Pimlico Race Course this afternoon, gamely holding off a challenge from 20-1 shot Immortal Eyes to win the eighth race of the card, the Maryland Sprint Handicap, by a half-length.
Trained by Bob Baffert, the towering colt was sent off as the 8-5 favorite in a field of nine based off of his many strong performances against high-quality graded stakes sprinters in California. Over a track that hasn't been turning in particularly fast times, Ventana helped set a blazing pace of :22.84 and :45.75. Despite these fractions, he took a narrow lead into the homestretch and appeared to be on his way to victory.
But suddenly, longshot Immortal Eyes appeared. He was charging into contention furiously on the outside and seemed ready to blow past Ventana with ease. But under Martin Garcia, Ventana battled back and courageously held off his stubborn rival to win the race in 1:09.88.
China made a mild rally for third, while Nathan's H Q completed the superfecta.
-Keelerman
Trained by Bob Baffert, the towering colt was sent off as the 8-5 favorite in a field of nine based off of his many strong performances against high-quality graded stakes sprinters in California. Over a track that hasn't been turning in particularly fast times, Ventana helped set a blazing pace of :22.84 and :45.75. Despite these fractions, he took a narrow lead into the homestretch and appeared to be on his way to victory.
But suddenly, longshot Immortal Eyes appeared. He was charging into contention furiously on the outside and seemed ready to blow past Ventana with ease. But under Martin Garcia, Ventana battled back and courageously held off his stubborn rival to win the race in 1:09.88.
China made a mild rally for third, while Nathan's H Q completed the superfecta.
-Keelerman
PIMLICO UPDATE #1
We are currently five minutes away from the eighth race of the afternoon at Pimlico Race course. Later this afternoon, the 136th running of the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) will be run.
The weather is nice, the main track is fast, and the turf course is labeled good.
The winner's of the first seven races have been:
Race/Race Name(if Stakes)/Winner/Payout
1 Technique ($14.00)
2 No Brakes ($7.60)
3 Golden Causeway ($6.00)
4 (Dupont Distaff Stakes) Super Expresso ($24.20)
5 Toni's the Won ($10.20)
6 (Chick Lang Stakes) Vengeful Wildcat ($6.40)
7 (James W. Murphy Handicap) Chinglish ($19.60)
As you can see, there have been several high-priced winners today. Ramon Dominguez has ridden two winners, Golden Causeway and Super Expresso. He will be aboard Dance City in the Preakness Stakes.
The next race scheduled is the Maryland Sprint Handicap, where the 8-5 favorite is Ventana. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, the colt has been in fine form as of late and looks very tough to beat. China ought to present a good challenge though if the pace is quick up front.
My pick is Ventana. I shall post the results in a moment.
-Keelerman
The weather is nice, the main track is fast, and the turf course is labeled good.
The winner's of the first seven races have been:
Race/Race Name(if Stakes)/Winner/Payout
1 Technique ($14.00)
2 No Brakes ($7.60)
3 Golden Causeway ($6.00)
4 (Dupont Distaff Stakes) Super Expresso ($24.20)
5 Toni's the Won ($10.20)
6 (Chick Lang Stakes) Vengeful Wildcat ($6.40)
7 (James W. Murphy Handicap) Chinglish ($19.60)
As you can see, there have been several high-priced winners today. Ramon Dominguez has ridden two winners, Golden Causeway and Super Expresso. He will be aboard Dance City in the Preakness Stakes.
The next race scheduled is the Maryland Sprint Handicap, where the 8-5 favorite is Ventana. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, the colt has been in fine form as of late and looks very tough to beat. China ought to present a good challenge though if the pace is quick up front.
My pick is Ventana. I shall post the results in a moment.
-Keelerman
PREAKNESS STAKES ANALYSIS AND PICKS
Tomorrow, the historic second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes (gr. I), will be run at Pimlico Race Course in Maryland. A full field of twelve has turned out for the 1 3/16th mile event, which is frequently more of a champion-defining race than the more heralded Kentucky Derby. The last ten winners of the Preakness, beginning with Point Given in 2001, have gone on to be voted Eclipse champion three-year-old.
As I did when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, I shall divide all of the starters into three categories, based on how well I like their chances. From there, I shall make my picks.
Here we go!
Unlikely Contenders
NORMAN ASBJORNSON – Finished fourth in the Wood Memorial without any real excuse. He seems to run his best races when he is on or near the lead, but doesn’t seem to have the speed to be up front in a race like this. Perhaps if he gets a perfect trip, he could rally to crack the superfecta, but I don’t really think it will happen. He is game, though.
KING CONGIE – Although he’s proven to be a very good horse on turf and synthetics – he was beaten a head in the grade I Blue Grass Stakes – his two performances on dirt yielded fourth- and eighth-place finishes by a combined total of 31 ½ lengths. He has also shown a tendency to drift outward in the stretch. A fine colt, but I doubt that he’ll take to the dirt.
ISN’T HE PERFECT – His three attempts at stakes company have yielded a pair of fifths and a sixth-place finish. He does seem to be improving, and has been pointed toward this race, but I have the suspicion that he just isn’t fast enough to contend in a race of this caliber. He does have experience, though – he’s made twelve starts so far, including six just this year.
FLASHPOINT – One of only three horses in this race to have earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure – the other two being Animal Kingdom and Sway Away – Flashpoint earned his big figure in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II). Although obviously extremely talented, his one try in a route race yielded a fourth-place finish behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby. If he can get to the lead and set a moderate pace, he could be around at the finish, but with his pedigree I can’t see him succeeding at a mile and three-sixteenths.
Contenders
ASTROLOGY – In seven starts, this fine colt has never finished worse than third. Winner of the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) last fall, Astrology had minor surgery during the winter to correct an entrapped epiglottis, which probably explains why he didn’t make his 2011 debut until March 27th, when he ran second in the rich Sunland Derby (gr. III). Last time out, he finished a late-running second to Adios Charlie in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II), a strong performance that become stronger when Adios Charlie came back to be beaten a head in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) last Saturday. Under Mike Smith, Astrology should be able to secure a decent, ground-saving trip from the rail and may very well be around at the finish.
CONCEALED IDENTITY - Concealed Identity may offer some value with morning line odds of 30-1. A Maryland-bred, all eight of his starts have come in Maryland, the last two being at Pimlico. Last time out, he defeated some fine horses in Ruler On Ice and J W Blue in the Federico Tesio Stakes. Trained by Edmund Gaudet -- who won the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes in 1971 -- I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see Concealed Identity finish in the superfecta. Interestingly, he only has one eye.
SHACKLEFORD - Shackleford turned in the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby, setting the pace and leading by a length passing the eighth pole before tiring late to finish fourth. He is unlikely to secure as easy a lead this time around, not with the likes of Flashpoint and Dance City also in the race. But he has continued to train well since the Derby and should be able to work out an excellent trip from gate five, perhaps stalking Flashpoint early on.
SWAY AWAY - As mentioned above, this colt has earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure, that being the 101 he recorded when finishing a close second to The Factor in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park. But two attempts in route races since then have proven unsuccessful, as he had finished sixth in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). Although he had excuses in both races, I feel that he is most effective as a late-running sprinter, despite his pedigree. But if a quick pace sets up in front of him, expect to see him charging home strongly in the homestretch.
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE - Winner of the Santa Anita Derby, Midnight Interlude showed absolutely nothing in the Kentucky Derby while finishing sixteenth. But a rider switch to Martin Garcia and a sharp workout signal that he may be ready to run an improved race. I would not be surprised if he is much closer to the lead tomorrow than usual -- perhaps even on the lead if he breaks well. Time will tell if he can stay the distance, but don't count him out entirely. After all, trainer Bob Baffert has won this race five times.
MR. COMMONS - Like Dance City, Mr. Commons has a lot to overcome. Trained by John Shirreffs of Zenyatta fame, the colt turned in two promising efforts under vastly different circumstances earlier this year -- breaking his maiden sprinting on turf and winning an allowance race going a mile on dirt. Last time out, he finished a decent third in the Santa Anita Derby behind Midnight Interlude. He doesn't have to improve a whole lot to be a contender here, but he has drawn gate fourteen. Seeing that his running style is to sit within a length or two of the early lead, I can't see him not getting caught wide on the first turn. Under the circumstances, I can't see him winning, although he has been training very well.
Top Contenders
DANCE CITY - This lightly raced colt has shown a great deal of talent and courage in his four starts. After finishing second to eventual Wood Memorial runner-up Arthur's Tale in a maiden special weight, Dance City broke his maiden by a length over a sloppy track at Gulfstream. He then defeated his highly-regarded stable mate Cal Nation in an allowance race by a desperate nose, then went on to finish a good third to Archarcharch and Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro in the Arkansas Derby after chasing a fast pace. Several questions still remain to be answered -- can his pedigree carry him a mile and three-sixteenths? Can he avoid getting sucked into an intense speed duel with Flashpoint and Shackleford? He'll have to run the race of his life to hit the board here, but he may just be capable of doing just that.
MUCHO MACHO MAN - Mucho Macho Man has been the epitome of consistency during his lengthy nine-race career. He has never finished worse than fourth, and has finished in the top three eight times. As a juvenile, he finished second twice to To Honor and Serve in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and the Remsen Stakes (gr. II). This year, he has won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and finished third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). In the Kentucky Derby. he had no real excuse, finishing a late-running third after a trouble-free trip. But in my opinion, he is still improving and will run his best race tomorrow. A June foal, he doesn't actually turn three-years-old until after the Belmont Stakes, and has taken some time to grow into his enormous 17-hand frame. But if I am correct, and he is only now reaching his best, he can win the Preakness tomorrow.
DIALED IN - The beaten Kentucky Derby favorite never had a chance in Louisville. Chasing one of the slowest paces in many, many years, his late run was severely compromised. But he was closing -- he closed his final half-mile in about :47 seconds, a brilliant time indeed. With a much faster pace likely tomorrow, I expect to see him flying down the homestretch with ground-devouring strides. Interestingly, he is racing for much more money than any of the other starters in this race. Because he won the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby earlier this year, he has a chance at winning the Preakness 5.5 bonus, the $5,500,000 bonus that is to be awarded to any horse that can win either the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, El Camino Real Derby and Santa Anita Derby, or the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby -- as well as the Preakness.
ANIMAL KINGDOM - Upset winner of the Kentucky Derby when making his first start on dirt, Animal Kingdom powered away from his rival in the Derby when winning by 2 3/4 lengths. It was the best race of his life, and a repeat of that performance would give him every chance at winning this race. But will he repeat the performance? That is one of the main questions that is being asked when handicapping the Preakness. He has been training well since his Derby victory, and I would not be surprised to see him run a great race, but I'm worried that he will catch a wide trip from gate eleven. He really got a near-perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby.
Now, before I post my picks, allow me to offer a disclaimer. No matter who I select to win the Preakness, I always cheer for the Kentucky Derby winner. No matter what. Even in 2009, when I was a huge fan of Rachel Alexandra and wanted her to become the first filly since 1924 to win the Preakness, I was still cheering for Mine That Bird to catch her in deep stretch, simply because I would love to see a Triple Crown winner. And if the Derby winner doesn't win the Preakness, then there's no shot, right?
So basically, what I'm saying is that although I'm not going to pick Animal Kingdom to win the Preakness, I will be cheering him on.
Okay. . . that said, let's get on to my selections!
First off, I shall make my traditional "Random Picks", where I randomly select names from a hat to see how good a handicapper my hat is.
My hat has selected:
1 Isn't He Perfect
2 Animal Kingdom
3 King Congie
4 Concealed Identity
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Dialed In
8 Mucho Macho Man
9 Sway Away
10 Dance City
11 Flashpoint
12 Astrology
13 Mr. Commons
14 Norman Asbjornson
As usual, the hat apparently knows something that I don't. :)
Here also are the usual "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" selections:
1 Animal Kingdom
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Shackleford
4 Dance City
5 Astrology (Dead-heat with King Congie, Sway Away, and Mr. Commons)
5 King Congie (Dead-heat with Astrology, Sway Away, and Mr. Commons)
5 Sway Away (Dead-heat with Astrology, King Congie, and Mr. Commons)
5 Mr. Commons (Dead-heat with Astrology, King Congie, and Sway Away)
9 Dialed In
10 Norman Asbjornson
11 Concealed Identity
12 Isn't He Perfect (Dead-heat with Flashpoint)
13 Flashpoint (Dead-heat with Isn't He Perfect)
14 Midnight Interlude
As usual, there are numerous dead-heats on this list -- a dead-heat occurring whenever two horses earned equal Beyer speed figures in their previous starts.
Okay, now it's time for my true picks. I have given this matter a lot of thought, and finally settled on these selections:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Dance City
4 Dialed In
5 Shackleford
6 Mr. Commons
7 Midnight Interlude
8 Astrology
9 Concealed Identity
10 King Congie
11 Sway Away
12 Norman Asbjornson
13 Flashpoint
14 Isn't He Perfect
I have this feeling that we have not seen the best of Mucho Macho Man, and that tomorrow is the day that he steps up and becomes the leader of the three-year-old division with a decisive victory in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Despite the fact that Dance City, Flashpoint, and Shackleford have all shown a great deal of speed in the past, I don't think that the pace will be all that fast. As a matter of fact, I don't see any of those three on the lead tomorrow. I believe that Martin Garcia will ask Midnight Interlude to go as soon as the gates open, and Midnight Interlude will find himself on the front end clear by a length through moderate fractions -- perhaps a :47 flat half-mile. From gate nine, Mucho Macho Man should be able to work out a good stalking position in fourth or fifth, not too far off of the early lead. From there, I think he will pounce on the far turn and hold off a charging Animal Kingdom for the victory.
Dialed In should be much closer in the stretch tomorrow than he was in the Derby, but since I don't see the early pace as being all that fast, I also can't see him getting past my top three. Dance City may indeed have distance limitations, but of the front runners I like him best. The Arkansas Derby was a very solid race -- with runner-up Nehro coming back to run second in the Derby and fifth-place finish Alternation winning the Peter Pan Stakes last Saturday -- and I feel that he may be very tough to pass in the homestretch.
As for Shackleford, despite the fact that he has been training well, I believe that his Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby performances were due more to perfect trips and pace scenarios more than anything else. Perhaps I'm wrong -- I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he took the lead and held off everyone to win this race -- but I believe that the pace won't set up for him today.
J.R., as usual, sees everything differently.
He sees Dance City, Shackleford, Flashpoint, and Midnight Interlude all getting involved him a tremendous speed duel for the early lead, where they run a :45-and-change half mile fraction. He predicts a complete and total pace meltdown, where the above-mentioned front runners tire badly in the homestretch and the horses sitting in mid-pack flatten out late.
He sees Astrology grinding past everyone to win.
Yes, J.R. is confident that Astrology -- making his third start off of a lengthy layoff -- will receive a perfect, ground-saving trip under Mike Smith that will enable the colt to run the race of his life and pull off a shocking upset. For second, he likes Dialed In. Norman Asbjornson and Concealed Identity are his "Longshots to Crack the Superfecta."
His complete selections are:
1 Astrology
2 Dialed In
3 Animal Kingdom
4 Norman Asbjorson
5 Concealed Identity
6 Mucho Macho Man
7 King Congie
8 Shackleford
9 Sway Away
10 Midnight Interlude
11 Dance City
12 Mr. Commons
13 Isn't He Perfect
14 Flashpoint
One final note before I conclude this post -- I am very fond of Mr. Commons, and would love to see John Shirreffs win a Preakness. Mr. Commons may actually be talented enough to win this race. But I'm afraid that from gate fourteen, I can't see the colt getting a good enough trip.
I shall post live updates here on my blog as the major undercard races at Pimlico are run tomorrow afternoon. In the meantime, enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
As I did when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, I shall divide all of the starters into three categories, based on how well I like their chances. From there, I shall make my picks.
Here we go!
Unlikely Contenders
NORMAN ASBJORNSON – Finished fourth in the Wood Memorial without any real excuse. He seems to run his best races when he is on or near the lead, but doesn’t seem to have the speed to be up front in a race like this. Perhaps if he gets a perfect trip, he could rally to crack the superfecta, but I don’t really think it will happen. He is game, though.
KING CONGIE – Although he’s proven to be a very good horse on turf and synthetics – he was beaten a head in the grade I Blue Grass Stakes – his two performances on dirt yielded fourth- and eighth-place finishes by a combined total of 31 ½ lengths. He has also shown a tendency to drift outward in the stretch. A fine colt, but I doubt that he’ll take to the dirt.
ISN’T HE PERFECT – His three attempts at stakes company have yielded a pair of fifths and a sixth-place finish. He does seem to be improving, and has been pointed toward this race, but I have the suspicion that he just isn’t fast enough to contend in a race of this caliber. He does have experience, though – he’s made twelve starts so far, including six just this year.
FLASHPOINT – One of only three horses in this race to have earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure – the other two being Animal Kingdom and Sway Away – Flashpoint earned his big figure in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II). Although obviously extremely talented, his one try in a route race yielded a fourth-place finish behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby. If he can get to the lead and set a moderate pace, he could be around at the finish, but with his pedigree I can’t see him succeeding at a mile and three-sixteenths.
Contenders
ASTROLOGY – In seven starts, this fine colt has never finished worse than third. Winner of the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) last fall, Astrology had minor surgery during the winter to correct an entrapped epiglottis, which probably explains why he didn’t make his 2011 debut until March 27th, when he ran second in the rich Sunland Derby (gr. III). Last time out, he finished a late-running second to Adios Charlie in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II), a strong performance that become stronger when Adios Charlie came back to be beaten a head in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) last Saturday. Under Mike Smith, Astrology should be able to secure a decent, ground-saving trip from the rail and may very well be around at the finish.
CONCEALED IDENTITY - Concealed Identity may offer some value with morning line odds of 30-1. A Maryland-bred, all eight of his starts have come in Maryland, the last two being at Pimlico. Last time out, he defeated some fine horses in Ruler On Ice and J W Blue in the Federico Tesio Stakes. Trained by Edmund Gaudet -- who won the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes in 1971 -- I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see Concealed Identity finish in the superfecta. Interestingly, he only has one eye.
SHACKLEFORD - Shackleford turned in the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby, setting the pace and leading by a length passing the eighth pole before tiring late to finish fourth. He is unlikely to secure as easy a lead this time around, not with the likes of Flashpoint and Dance City also in the race. But he has continued to train well since the Derby and should be able to work out an excellent trip from gate five, perhaps stalking Flashpoint early on.
SWAY AWAY - As mentioned above, this colt has earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure, that being the 101 he recorded when finishing a close second to The Factor in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park. But two attempts in route races since then have proven unsuccessful, as he had finished sixth in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). Although he had excuses in both races, I feel that he is most effective as a late-running sprinter, despite his pedigree. But if a quick pace sets up in front of him, expect to see him charging home strongly in the homestretch.
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE - Winner of the Santa Anita Derby, Midnight Interlude showed absolutely nothing in the Kentucky Derby while finishing sixteenth. But a rider switch to Martin Garcia and a sharp workout signal that he may be ready to run an improved race. I would not be surprised if he is much closer to the lead tomorrow than usual -- perhaps even on the lead if he breaks well. Time will tell if he can stay the distance, but don't count him out entirely. After all, trainer Bob Baffert has won this race five times.
MR. COMMONS - Like Dance City, Mr. Commons has a lot to overcome. Trained by John Shirreffs of Zenyatta fame, the colt turned in two promising efforts under vastly different circumstances earlier this year -- breaking his maiden sprinting on turf and winning an allowance race going a mile on dirt. Last time out, he finished a decent third in the Santa Anita Derby behind Midnight Interlude. He doesn't have to improve a whole lot to be a contender here, but he has drawn gate fourteen. Seeing that his running style is to sit within a length or two of the early lead, I can't see him not getting caught wide on the first turn. Under the circumstances, I can't see him winning, although he has been training very well.
Top Contenders
DANCE CITY - This lightly raced colt has shown a great deal of talent and courage in his four starts. After finishing second to eventual Wood Memorial runner-up Arthur's Tale in a maiden special weight, Dance City broke his maiden by a length over a sloppy track at Gulfstream. He then defeated his highly-regarded stable mate Cal Nation in an allowance race by a desperate nose, then went on to finish a good third to Archarcharch and Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro in the Arkansas Derby after chasing a fast pace. Several questions still remain to be answered -- can his pedigree carry him a mile and three-sixteenths? Can he avoid getting sucked into an intense speed duel with Flashpoint and Shackleford? He'll have to run the race of his life to hit the board here, but he may just be capable of doing just that.
MUCHO MACHO MAN - Mucho Macho Man has been the epitome of consistency during his lengthy nine-race career. He has never finished worse than fourth, and has finished in the top three eight times. As a juvenile, he finished second twice to To Honor and Serve in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and the Remsen Stakes (gr. II). This year, he has won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and finished third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). In the Kentucky Derby. he had no real excuse, finishing a late-running third after a trouble-free trip. But in my opinion, he is still improving and will run his best race tomorrow. A June foal, he doesn't actually turn three-years-old until after the Belmont Stakes, and has taken some time to grow into his enormous 17-hand frame. But if I am correct, and he is only now reaching his best, he can win the Preakness tomorrow.
DIALED IN - The beaten Kentucky Derby favorite never had a chance in Louisville. Chasing one of the slowest paces in many, many years, his late run was severely compromised. But he was closing -- he closed his final half-mile in about :47 seconds, a brilliant time indeed. With a much faster pace likely tomorrow, I expect to see him flying down the homestretch with ground-devouring strides. Interestingly, he is racing for much more money than any of the other starters in this race. Because he won the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby earlier this year, he has a chance at winning the Preakness 5.5 bonus, the $5,500,000 bonus that is to be awarded to any horse that can win either the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, El Camino Real Derby and Santa Anita Derby, or the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby -- as well as the Preakness.
ANIMAL KINGDOM - Upset winner of the Kentucky Derby when making his first start on dirt, Animal Kingdom powered away from his rival in the Derby when winning by 2 3/4 lengths. It was the best race of his life, and a repeat of that performance would give him every chance at winning this race. But will he repeat the performance? That is one of the main questions that is being asked when handicapping the Preakness. He has been training well since his Derby victory, and I would not be surprised to see him run a great race, but I'm worried that he will catch a wide trip from gate eleven. He really got a near-perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby.
Now, before I post my picks, allow me to offer a disclaimer. No matter who I select to win the Preakness, I always cheer for the Kentucky Derby winner. No matter what. Even in 2009, when I was a huge fan of Rachel Alexandra and wanted her to become the first filly since 1924 to win the Preakness, I was still cheering for Mine That Bird to catch her in deep stretch, simply because I would love to see a Triple Crown winner. And if the Derby winner doesn't win the Preakness, then there's no shot, right?
So basically, what I'm saying is that although I'm not going to pick Animal Kingdom to win the Preakness, I will be cheering him on.
Okay. . . that said, let's get on to my selections!
First off, I shall make my traditional "Random Picks", where I randomly select names from a hat to see how good a handicapper my hat is.
My hat has selected:
1 Isn't He Perfect
2 Animal Kingdom
3 King Congie
4 Concealed Identity
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Dialed In
8 Mucho Macho Man
9 Sway Away
10 Dance City
11 Flashpoint
12 Astrology
13 Mr. Commons
14 Norman Asbjornson
As usual, the hat apparently knows something that I don't. :)
Here also are the usual "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" selections:
1 Animal Kingdom
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Shackleford
4 Dance City
5 Astrology (Dead-heat with King Congie, Sway Away, and Mr. Commons)
5 King Congie (Dead-heat with Astrology, Sway Away, and Mr. Commons)
5 Sway Away (Dead-heat with Astrology, King Congie, and Mr. Commons)
5 Mr. Commons (Dead-heat with Astrology, King Congie, and Sway Away)
9 Dialed In
10 Norman Asbjornson
11 Concealed Identity
12 Isn't He Perfect (Dead-heat with Flashpoint)
13 Flashpoint (Dead-heat with Isn't He Perfect)
14 Midnight Interlude
As usual, there are numerous dead-heats on this list -- a dead-heat occurring whenever two horses earned equal Beyer speed figures in their previous starts.
Okay, now it's time for my true picks. I have given this matter a lot of thought, and finally settled on these selections:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Dance City
4 Dialed In
5 Shackleford
6 Mr. Commons
7 Midnight Interlude
8 Astrology
9 Concealed Identity
10 King Congie
11 Sway Away
12 Norman Asbjornson
13 Flashpoint
14 Isn't He Perfect
I have this feeling that we have not seen the best of Mucho Macho Man, and that tomorrow is the day that he steps up and becomes the leader of the three-year-old division with a decisive victory in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Despite the fact that Dance City, Flashpoint, and Shackleford have all shown a great deal of speed in the past, I don't think that the pace will be all that fast. As a matter of fact, I don't see any of those three on the lead tomorrow. I believe that Martin Garcia will ask Midnight Interlude to go as soon as the gates open, and Midnight Interlude will find himself on the front end clear by a length through moderate fractions -- perhaps a :47 flat half-mile. From gate nine, Mucho Macho Man should be able to work out a good stalking position in fourth or fifth, not too far off of the early lead. From there, I think he will pounce on the far turn and hold off a charging Animal Kingdom for the victory.
Dialed In should be much closer in the stretch tomorrow than he was in the Derby, but since I don't see the early pace as being all that fast, I also can't see him getting past my top three. Dance City may indeed have distance limitations, but of the front runners I like him best. The Arkansas Derby was a very solid race -- with runner-up Nehro coming back to run second in the Derby and fifth-place finish Alternation winning the Peter Pan Stakes last Saturday -- and I feel that he may be very tough to pass in the homestretch.
As for Shackleford, despite the fact that he has been training well, I believe that his Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby performances were due more to perfect trips and pace scenarios more than anything else. Perhaps I'm wrong -- I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he took the lead and held off everyone to win this race -- but I believe that the pace won't set up for him today.
J.R., as usual, sees everything differently.
He sees Dance City, Shackleford, Flashpoint, and Midnight Interlude all getting involved him a tremendous speed duel for the early lead, where they run a :45-and-change half mile fraction. He predicts a complete and total pace meltdown, where the above-mentioned front runners tire badly in the homestretch and the horses sitting in mid-pack flatten out late.
He sees Astrology grinding past everyone to win.
Yes, J.R. is confident that Astrology -- making his third start off of a lengthy layoff -- will receive a perfect, ground-saving trip under Mike Smith that will enable the colt to run the race of his life and pull off a shocking upset. For second, he likes Dialed In. Norman Asbjornson and Concealed Identity are his "Longshots to Crack the Superfecta."
His complete selections are:
1 Astrology
2 Dialed In
3 Animal Kingdom
4 Norman Asbjorson
5 Concealed Identity
6 Mucho Macho Man
7 King Congie
8 Shackleford
9 Sway Away
10 Midnight Interlude
11 Dance City
12 Mr. Commons
13 Isn't He Perfect
14 Flashpoint
One final note before I conclude this post -- I am very fond of Mr. Commons, and would love to see John Shirreffs win a Preakness. Mr. Commons may actually be talented enough to win this race. But I'm afraid that from gate fourteen, I can't see the colt getting a good enough trip.
I shall post live updates here on my blog as the major undercard races at Pimlico are run tomorrow afternoon. In the meantime, enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
Friday, May 20, 2011
ROYAL DELTA WINS THE BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES!
Royal Delta rallied impressively, first on the rail and then on the outside, to win the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) at Pimlico Race Course by two lengths.
Under Jose Lezcano, the filly rated in the fourth position as Hot Summer, Wyomia, and Buster's Ready set testing fractions. On the far turn, she snuck through along the inside with a bold run to challenge for the lead. Hot Summer was still going strong up front, but Royal Delta blew past her and held off a late run from Buster's Ready to win the race.
Buster's Ready stayed on well while racing greenly to finish second, with Hot Summer holding third. Love Theway Youare finished fourth, while Wyomia tired badly to finish last.
-Keelerman
Under Jose Lezcano, the filly rated in the fourth position as Hot Summer, Wyomia, and Buster's Ready set testing fractions. On the far turn, she snuck through along the inside with a bold run to challenge for the lead. Hot Summer was still going strong up front, but Royal Delta blew past her and held off a late run from Buster's Ready to win the race.
Buster's Ready stayed on well while racing greenly to finish second, with Hot Summer holding third. Love Theway Youare finished fourth, while Wyomia tired badly to finish last.
-Keelerman
BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES PICKS
The Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II), the feature race today at Pimlico Race Course, has a long history of famous winners. Davona Dale, Silverbulletday, and Serena's Song are among the magnificent fillies to have won this race in the past.
This year's field is small -- only five horses have turned out. But it's an intriguing bunch, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a future grade I winner emerge from this race.
As it is post time, there is unfortunately no time for in-depth analysis of the race. So I shall merely list my selections, along with J.R.'s.
My picks are:
1 Royal Delta
2 Wyomia
3 Buster's Ready
J.R. has picked:
1 Hot Summer
2 Royal Delta
3 Buster's Ready
-Keelerman
This year's field is small -- only five horses have turned out. But it's an intriguing bunch, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a future grade I winner emerge from this race.
As it is post time, there is unfortunately no time for in-depth analysis of the race. So I shall merely list my selections, along with J.R.'s.
My picks are:
1 Royal Delta
2 Wyomia
3 Buster's Ready
J.R. has picked:
1 Hot Summer
2 Royal Delta
3 Buster's Ready
-Keelerman
R HOLIDAY MOOD WINS THE MISS PREAKNESS STAKES!
R Holiday Mood took the lead from favored Final Mesa in deep stretch and held off the late run of Strike the Moon to win the $75,000 Miss Preakness Stakes by a head this afternoon at Pimlico Race Course.
Ridden by John Velazquez, the filly rated in second place early on, just behind 4-5 favorite Final Mesa. The latter set a moderate pace of :23.00 and :46.12 while leading the field by a half-length.
Turning for home, R Holiday Mood made her bid for the lead and put her head in front of Final Mesa. The favorite battled on gamely, but was beginning to tire.
Suddenly, out of the clouds, Strike the Moon came flying in the center of the racetrack. With incredible speed she cut into R Holiday Mood's lead, but her late run fell a head short. The final time was 1:12.12.
Bold Affair rallied up the fence for third, while Final Mesa tired to fourth.
-Keelerman
Ridden by John Velazquez, the filly rated in second place early on, just behind 4-5 favorite Final Mesa. The latter set a moderate pace of :23.00 and :46.12 while leading the field by a half-length.
Turning for home, R Holiday Mood made her bid for the lead and put her head in front of Final Mesa. The favorite battled on gamely, but was beginning to tire.
Suddenly, out of the clouds, Strike the Moon came flying in the center of the racetrack. With incredible speed she cut into R Holiday Mood's lead, but her late run fell a head short. The final time was 1:12.12.
Bold Affair rallied up the fence for third, while Final Mesa tired to fourth.
-Keelerman
MISS PREAKNESS STAKES SELECTIONS
It is post time for the 9th race today at Pimlico, the $75,000 Miss Preakness Stakes. Currently, the favorite is Final Mesa at 4-5. Impressive winner of the Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) in January at Gulfstream Park, she will be making her first start since then but has been training very sharply.
Strike the Moon turned in an impressive performance last time out in an allowance race, and may have a chance at pulling off the upset. She will be ridden by J. Pimentel, and I believe that she can pull off an upset.
R Holiday Mood has made three straight starts in route races, and may benefit from the six furlong distance of today's race.
My picks are:
1 Strike the Moon
2 Final Mesa
3 R Holiday Mood
I shall post the results in a moment!
-Keelerman
Strike the Moon turned in an impressive performance last time out in an allowance race, and may have a chance at pulling off the upset. She will be ridden by J. Pimentel, and I believe that she can pull off an upset.
R Holiday Mood has made three straight starts in route races, and may benefit from the six furlong distance of today's race.
My picks are:
1 Strike the Moon
2 Final Mesa
3 R Holiday Mood
I shall post the results in a moment!
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- May 19th, 2011
Before we all get into handicapping the Preakness Stakes – for which the post positions were drawn yesterday – let us first briefly recap the racing action from the last two Saturdays.
Kentucky Derby
A few days ago, I wrote up a recap of the Kentucky Derby (link to post), but I did not compare to see how my picks stacked up against the final results. So here are the variety of selections which J.R. and I made and the complete results of the race:
OFFICIAL ORDER OF FINISH
1 Animal Kingdom
2 Nehro
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Shackleford
5 Master of Hounds
6 Santiva
7 Brilliant Speed
8 Dialed In
9 Pants On Fire
10 Twice the Appeal
11 Soldat
12 Stay Thirsty
13 Derby Kitten
14 Decisive Moment
15 Archarcharch
16 Midnight Interlude
17 Twinspired
18 Watch Me Go
19 Comma to the Top
Now let us compare it to my selections:
1 Dialed In
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Decisive Moment
8 Animal Kingdom
9 Archarcharch
10 Soldat
11 Derby Kitten
12 Santiva
13 Stay Thirsty
14 Pants On Fire
15 Brilliant Speed
16 Comma to the Top
17 Master of Hounds
18 Twinspired
19 Watch Me Go
In an interesting scenario, my pick ran eighth, while I picked the winner to finish eighth. I actually failed to place any horse in the correct position, although I was certainly close on Mucho Macho Man, Nehro, and Shackleford.
J.R. did a bit better than I did. His picks were:
1 Nehro
2 Brilliant Speed
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Dialed In
5 Decisive Moment
6 Master of Hounds
7 Soldat
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Stay Thirsty
10 Animal Kingdom
11 Archarcharch
12 Shackleford
13 Twinspired
14 Twice the Appeal
15 Pants On Fire
16 Derby Kitten
17 Watch Me Go
18 Santiva
19 Comma to the Top
He believed strongly that Nehro would perform admirably in the Derby – and he did, finishing second. He also correctly picked Mucho Macho Man for third, and had the right idea on Master of Hounds. Because his top pick ran second, he picked up twenty-five points in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest, which enabled him to move considerably closer to me in the standings.
Another list of selections which I compiled was the “Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race” picks, which – as their name implies – made it’s selections based off of the Beyer speed figure that each starter earned in their final prep race.
It’s selections were:
1 Archarcharch (Dead-heat with Nehro)
1 Nehro (Dead-heat with Archarcharch)
3 Midnight Interlude (Dead-heat with Comma to the Top)
3 Comma to the Top (Dead-heat with Midnight Interlude)
5 Pants On Fire (Dead-heat with Animal Kingdom)
5 Animal Kingdom (Dead-heat with Pants On Fire)
7 Brilliant Speed (Dead-heat with Dialed In, Twinspired, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
7 Dialed In (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Twinspired, Mucho Macco Man, and Shackleford)
7 Twinspired (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
7 Mucho Macho Man (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Shackleford)
7 Shackleford (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Mucho Macho Man)
12 Derby Kitten
13 Twice the Appeal (Dead-heat with Decisive Moment)
13 Decisive Moment (Dead-heat with Twice the Appeal)
15 Santiva
16 Master of Hounds
17 Soldat
18 Stay Thirsty (Dead-heat with Watch Me Go)
18 Watch Me Go (Dead-heat with Stay Thirsty)
It predicted that there would be a five-horse dead-heat for seventh place – as well as numerous other dead-heats. But it correctly selected Nehro to perform well, and it also respected Animal Kingdom. It was fairly close on Dialed In, too.
Finally, there were my “Random Selections”. They were:
1 Watch Me Go
2 Shackleford
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Midnight Interlude
5 Decisive Moment
6 Santiva
7 Animal Kingdom
8 Stay Thirsty
9 Dialed In
10 Nehro
11 Master of Hounds
12 Pants On Fire
13 Derby Kitten
14 Mucho Macho Man
15 Soldat
16 Archarcharch
17 Brilliant Speed
18 Comma to the Top
19 Twinspired
Well – it put Santiva in the right place. . . :)
Kentucky Oaks
Plum Pretty proved on the Friday before the Derby that her twenty-five length victory in the Sunland Parks Oaks was not due to an easy trip. Ridden by Martin Garcia, the filly opened up a decisive lead in the Churchill Downs homestretch and held off longshot St. John’s River to win the 137th running of the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks by a neck.
Trained by Bob Baffert, the filly – who was sent off as the fourth choice at 6-1 – secured good position early, tracking the pace set by Summer Soiree in the two-path. The fractions were challenging, with Summer Soiree carving out a :23.65 opening quarter and a :46.99 half-mile while leading by 3 ½ lengths. But after running three-quarters in 1:11.25, she was through. Plum Pretty drew up alongside and powered into the lead as the field entered the homestretch. She passed the eighth pole leading by three lengths, and appeared to be on her way to an easy victory. But St. John’s River was rallying furiously along the rail under Rosie Napravnik, and at 16-1 looked as though she might pull a major upset. But Plum Pretty held on gamely in the final yards, scoring the first grade I win of her career in 1:49.50.
Zazu rallied late for third, while favored Joyful Victory finished fourth without any apparent excuse.
The complete order of finish was:
1 Plum Pretty
2 St. John’s River
3 Zazu
4 Joyful Victory
5 Bouquet Booth
6 Kathmanblu
7 Daisy Devine
8 Street Storm
9 Suave Voir Faire
10 Summer Soiree
11 Her Smile
12 Lilacs and Lace
13 Holy Heavens
My selections were:
1 Joyful Victory
2 Kathmanblu
3 Daisy Devine
4 Zazu
5 Holy Heavens
6 Plum Pretty
7 St. John's River
8 Her Smile
9 Summer Soiree
10 Lilacs and Lace
11 Bouquet Booth
12 Street Storm
13 Suave Voir Faire
J.R.’s picked were:
1 St. John's River
2 Her Smile
3 Joyful Victory
4 Plum Pretty
5 Kathmablu
6 Daisy Devine
7 Summer Soiree
8 Lilacs and Lace
9 Zazu
10 Holy Heavens
11 Bouquet Booth
12 Street Storm
13 Suave Voir Faire
J.R. did considerably better than I, as his 16-1 shot nearly got up to win. He also liked Plum Pretty better than I did. All in all, it was an excellent race, from which I expect numerous fine stakes winners to emerge.
Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II)
This nine furlong prep race for the June 11th Belmont Stakes drew a fascinating field that included Jerome Stakes winner Adios Charlie, Illinois Derby winner Joe Vann, the solid allowance runner Alternation, and Count Fleet Stakes winner Monzon. The favorite, at 3-1, was Alternation.
Held at Belmont Park – where nine furlong races are around one turn – the Peter Pan Stakes turned in very reasonable results. Longshot Bold Deed broke quickest of all, going to the lead while setting a quick pace of :23.78 and :47.14. Adios Charlie and Joe Vann were just off the pace in second and third, while Prime Cut was sitting fourth along the inside.
But Prime Cut was not content to sit back in fourth, and between the seventh-eighths and five-eighth poles made a bold run along the inside to grab second position, 2 ½ lengths behind Bold Deed. Adios Charlie and Joe Vann were still patiently tracking the pace, while Uncle Brent had moved into contention on the rail at odds of 3.90-1.
Alternation? He was rating in seventh, six lengths off the lead.
Around the far turn, Bold Deed was beginning to show signs of stopping. Adios Charlie and Joe Vann were moving up on the outside, while Prime Cut was back to fourth and searching for racing room. Uncle Brent was beginning to tire, and Alternation still had several lengths to make up.
All of a sudden, Adios Charlie burst clear. Under Rajiv Maragh, he exploded past Bold Deed and left Joe Vann in his dust as the field turned for home. He powered down the homestretch, drawing well clear of the field. Passing the eighth pole, he led by two lengths and was home-free.
Or was he?
All of a sudden, Alternation appeared on the scene. With tremendous strides he cut into Adios Charlie’s lead. It appeared as though his late run would fall short – but it didn’t. In the shadow of the wire, Alternation stuck his nose in front of Adios Charlie to win the Peter Pan Stakes in 1:49.53.
Adios Charlie was game to the finish, ending up 4 ½ lengths clear of the third-place finisher, Prime Cut. Joe Vann finished fourth after racing wide throughout.
The complete order of finish was:
1 Alternation
2 Adios Charlie
3 Prime Cut
4 Joe Vann
5 Bold Deed
6 Monzon
7 Beer Meister
8 Newsdad
9 Uncle Brent
10 Tap Attack
My selections were:
1 Monzon
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation
J.R.’s picks were:
1 Prime Cut
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation
The three points earned by J.R. for Prime Cut’s third-place finish enabled him to draw within a point of me in our Handicapping Contest, with just four weekends of racing to go. The Preakness Stakes and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes are this week’s contest races. We shall post our picks shortly.
Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
Kentucky Derby
A few days ago, I wrote up a recap of the Kentucky Derby (link to post), but I did not compare to see how my picks stacked up against the final results. So here are the variety of selections which J.R. and I made and the complete results of the race:
OFFICIAL ORDER OF FINISH
1 Animal Kingdom
2 Nehro
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Shackleford
5 Master of Hounds
6 Santiva
7 Brilliant Speed
8 Dialed In
9 Pants On Fire
10 Twice the Appeal
11 Soldat
12 Stay Thirsty
13 Derby Kitten
14 Decisive Moment
15 Archarcharch
16 Midnight Interlude
17 Twinspired
18 Watch Me Go
19 Comma to the Top
Now let us compare it to my selections:
1 Dialed In
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Decisive Moment
8 Animal Kingdom
9 Archarcharch
10 Soldat
11 Derby Kitten
12 Santiva
13 Stay Thirsty
14 Pants On Fire
15 Brilliant Speed
16 Comma to the Top
17 Master of Hounds
18 Twinspired
19 Watch Me Go
In an interesting scenario, my pick ran eighth, while I picked the winner to finish eighth. I actually failed to place any horse in the correct position, although I was certainly close on Mucho Macho Man, Nehro, and Shackleford.
J.R. did a bit better than I did. His picks were:
1 Nehro
2 Brilliant Speed
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Dialed In
5 Decisive Moment
6 Master of Hounds
7 Soldat
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Stay Thirsty
10 Animal Kingdom
11 Archarcharch
12 Shackleford
13 Twinspired
14 Twice the Appeal
15 Pants On Fire
16 Derby Kitten
17 Watch Me Go
18 Santiva
19 Comma to the Top
He believed strongly that Nehro would perform admirably in the Derby – and he did, finishing second. He also correctly picked Mucho Macho Man for third, and had the right idea on Master of Hounds. Because his top pick ran second, he picked up twenty-five points in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest, which enabled him to move considerably closer to me in the standings.
Another list of selections which I compiled was the “Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race” picks, which – as their name implies – made it’s selections based off of the Beyer speed figure that each starter earned in their final prep race.
It’s selections were:
1 Archarcharch (Dead-heat with Nehro)
1 Nehro (Dead-heat with Archarcharch)
3 Midnight Interlude (Dead-heat with Comma to the Top)
3 Comma to the Top (Dead-heat with Midnight Interlude)
5 Pants On Fire (Dead-heat with Animal Kingdom)
5 Animal Kingdom (Dead-heat with Pants On Fire)
7 Brilliant Speed (Dead-heat with Dialed In, Twinspired, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
7 Dialed In (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Twinspired, Mucho Macco Man, and Shackleford)
7 Twinspired (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
7 Mucho Macho Man (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Shackleford)
7 Shackleford (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Mucho Macho Man)
12 Derby Kitten
13 Twice the Appeal (Dead-heat with Decisive Moment)
13 Decisive Moment (Dead-heat with Twice the Appeal)
15 Santiva
16 Master of Hounds
17 Soldat
18 Stay Thirsty (Dead-heat with Watch Me Go)
18 Watch Me Go (Dead-heat with Stay Thirsty)
It predicted that there would be a five-horse dead-heat for seventh place – as well as numerous other dead-heats. But it correctly selected Nehro to perform well, and it also respected Animal Kingdom. It was fairly close on Dialed In, too.
Finally, there were my “Random Selections”. They were:
1 Watch Me Go
2 Shackleford
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Midnight Interlude
5 Decisive Moment
6 Santiva
7 Animal Kingdom
8 Stay Thirsty
9 Dialed In
10 Nehro
11 Master of Hounds
12 Pants On Fire
13 Derby Kitten
14 Mucho Macho Man
15 Soldat
16 Archarcharch
17 Brilliant Speed
18 Comma to the Top
19 Twinspired
Well – it put Santiva in the right place. . . :)
Kentucky Oaks
Plum Pretty proved on the Friday before the Derby that her twenty-five length victory in the Sunland Parks Oaks was not due to an easy trip. Ridden by Martin Garcia, the filly opened up a decisive lead in the Churchill Downs homestretch and held off longshot St. John’s River to win the 137th running of the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks by a neck.
Trained by Bob Baffert, the filly – who was sent off as the fourth choice at 6-1 – secured good position early, tracking the pace set by Summer Soiree in the two-path. The fractions were challenging, with Summer Soiree carving out a :23.65 opening quarter and a :46.99 half-mile while leading by 3 ½ lengths. But after running three-quarters in 1:11.25, she was through. Plum Pretty drew up alongside and powered into the lead as the field entered the homestretch. She passed the eighth pole leading by three lengths, and appeared to be on her way to an easy victory. But St. John’s River was rallying furiously along the rail under Rosie Napravnik, and at 16-1 looked as though she might pull a major upset. But Plum Pretty held on gamely in the final yards, scoring the first grade I win of her career in 1:49.50.
Zazu rallied late for third, while favored Joyful Victory finished fourth without any apparent excuse.
The complete order of finish was:
1 Plum Pretty
2 St. John’s River
3 Zazu
4 Joyful Victory
5 Bouquet Booth
6 Kathmanblu
7 Daisy Devine
8 Street Storm
9 Suave Voir Faire
10 Summer Soiree
11 Her Smile
12 Lilacs and Lace
13 Holy Heavens
My selections were:
1 Joyful Victory
2 Kathmanblu
3 Daisy Devine
4 Zazu
5 Holy Heavens
6 Plum Pretty
7 St. John's River
8 Her Smile
9 Summer Soiree
10 Lilacs and Lace
11 Bouquet Booth
12 Street Storm
13 Suave Voir Faire
J.R.’s picked were:
1 St. John's River
2 Her Smile
3 Joyful Victory
4 Plum Pretty
5 Kathmablu
6 Daisy Devine
7 Summer Soiree
8 Lilacs and Lace
9 Zazu
10 Holy Heavens
11 Bouquet Booth
12 Street Storm
13 Suave Voir Faire
J.R. did considerably better than I, as his 16-1 shot nearly got up to win. He also liked Plum Pretty better than I did. All in all, it was an excellent race, from which I expect numerous fine stakes winners to emerge.
Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II)
This nine furlong prep race for the June 11th Belmont Stakes drew a fascinating field that included Jerome Stakes winner Adios Charlie, Illinois Derby winner Joe Vann, the solid allowance runner Alternation, and Count Fleet Stakes winner Monzon. The favorite, at 3-1, was Alternation.
Held at Belmont Park – where nine furlong races are around one turn – the Peter Pan Stakes turned in very reasonable results. Longshot Bold Deed broke quickest of all, going to the lead while setting a quick pace of :23.78 and :47.14. Adios Charlie and Joe Vann were just off the pace in second and third, while Prime Cut was sitting fourth along the inside.
But Prime Cut was not content to sit back in fourth, and between the seventh-eighths and five-eighth poles made a bold run along the inside to grab second position, 2 ½ lengths behind Bold Deed. Adios Charlie and Joe Vann were still patiently tracking the pace, while Uncle Brent had moved into contention on the rail at odds of 3.90-1.
Alternation? He was rating in seventh, six lengths off the lead.
Around the far turn, Bold Deed was beginning to show signs of stopping. Adios Charlie and Joe Vann were moving up on the outside, while Prime Cut was back to fourth and searching for racing room. Uncle Brent was beginning to tire, and Alternation still had several lengths to make up.
All of a sudden, Adios Charlie burst clear. Under Rajiv Maragh, he exploded past Bold Deed and left Joe Vann in his dust as the field turned for home. He powered down the homestretch, drawing well clear of the field. Passing the eighth pole, he led by two lengths and was home-free.
Or was he?
All of a sudden, Alternation appeared on the scene. With tremendous strides he cut into Adios Charlie’s lead. It appeared as though his late run would fall short – but it didn’t. In the shadow of the wire, Alternation stuck his nose in front of Adios Charlie to win the Peter Pan Stakes in 1:49.53.
Adios Charlie was game to the finish, ending up 4 ½ lengths clear of the third-place finisher, Prime Cut. Joe Vann finished fourth after racing wide throughout.
The complete order of finish was:
1 Alternation
2 Adios Charlie
3 Prime Cut
4 Joe Vann
5 Bold Deed
6 Monzon
7 Beer Meister
8 Newsdad
9 Uncle Brent
10 Tap Attack
My selections were:
1 Monzon
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation
J.R.’s picks were:
1 Prime Cut
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation
The three points earned by J.R. for Prime Cut’s third-place finish enabled him to draw within a point of me in our Handicapping Contest, with just four weekends of racing to go. The Preakness Stakes and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes are this week’s contest races. We shall post our picks shortly.
Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
2011 PREAKNESS STAKES POST POSITIONS
Here are the post positions for the 2011 edition of the Preakness Stakes, held at 1 3/16th miles at Pimlico Race Course in Maryland.
1 Astrology
2 Norman Asbjornson
3 King Congie
4 Flashpoint
5 Shackleford
6 Sway Away
7 Midnight Interlude
8 Dance City
9 Mucho Macho Man
10 Dialed In
11 Animal Kingdom
12 Isn't He Perfect
13 Concealed Identity
14 Mr. Commons
Animal Kingdom is the 2-1 morning line favorite, with Dialed In the 9-2 second choice.
-Keelerman
1 Astrology
2 Norman Asbjornson
3 King Congie
4 Flashpoint
5 Shackleford
6 Sway Away
7 Midnight Interlude
8 Dance City
9 Mucho Macho Man
10 Dialed In
11 Animal Kingdom
12 Isn't He Perfect
13 Concealed Identity
14 Mr. Commons
Animal Kingdom is the 2-1 morning line favorite, with Dialed In the 9-2 second choice.
-Keelerman
Saturday, May 14, 2011
ALTERNATION WINS THE PETER PANS STAKES!
Alternation closed furiously in the homestretch to win the $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park this afternoon by a head.
Reserved off of a moderate early pace by jockey Ramon Dominguez, the son of Distorted Humor -- who was sent off as the second choice at 7-2 -- made a bold run around the far turn to reach contention as the field turned into the homestretch and just got up in time to nail Adios Charlie in the final strides.
Adios Charlie sat second in the early going, a couple of a lengths off of a pace of :23.79 and :47.14 set by longshot Bold Deed. He swept into the lead as the field turned for home, but was caught late as the 3-1 favorite.
Prime Cut finished third after a ground-saving trip, while Illinois Derby winner Joe Vann finished fourth after racing wide throughout. The final time was 1:49.53.
-Keelerman
Reserved off of a moderate early pace by jockey Ramon Dominguez, the son of Distorted Humor -- who was sent off as the second choice at 7-2 -- made a bold run around the far turn to reach contention as the field turned into the homestretch and just got up in time to nail Adios Charlie in the final strides.
Adios Charlie sat second in the early going, a couple of a lengths off of a pace of :23.79 and :47.14 set by longshot Bold Deed. He swept into the lead as the field turned for home, but was caught late as the 3-1 favorite.
Prime Cut finished third after a ground-saving trip, while Illinois Derby winner Joe Vann finished fourth after racing wide throughout. The final time was 1:49.53.
-Keelerman
PETER PANS STAKES ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS
It is currently twelve minutes until post time for the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park, a nine furlong prep race for the June 11th Belmont Stakes (gr. I). Eleven were entered, but the scratch of Isn't He Perfect has reduced the field to ten runners.
Currently, the betting favorite is Alternation at 3-1. The colt impressed in a pair of allowance events at Oaklawn earlier in this year, and was on the Derby Trail, but a fifth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby left him with insufficient earnings to make the Derby field. Uncle Brent, winner of the Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn, is 7-2. The morning line favorite Adios Charlie -- who turned in a huge performance to defeat Astrology in the Jerome Stakes two weeks ago -- is 9-2, which surprises me a bit because I thought he would be the heavy favorite. Newsdad, who finished a close fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes, is also 9-2. Joe Vann, winner of the Illinois Derby, is a surprising 8-1 right now.
The horse I really like is Monzon. He impressively won the Count Fleet Stakes on January 1st of this year, leaving eventual Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire and Wood Memorial runner-up Arthur's Tale behind him. Although he could only manage a distant fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes -- his lone start since then -- I feel that he will rebound to his Count Fleet form today and will be very much in the mix.
Prime Cut could also be a contender, based off of his good second to Derby Kitten in the Lexington Stakes.
My picks are:
1 Monzon
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation
J.R. sees the race differently. He is confident that Prime Cut is the best horse in the race and will prove it today.
His picks are:
1 Prime Cut
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation
I shall post the results in a moment!
-Keelerman
Currently, the betting favorite is Alternation at 3-1. The colt impressed in a pair of allowance events at Oaklawn earlier in this year, and was on the Derby Trail, but a fifth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby left him with insufficient earnings to make the Derby field. Uncle Brent, winner of the Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn, is 7-2. The morning line favorite Adios Charlie -- who turned in a huge performance to defeat Astrology in the Jerome Stakes two weeks ago -- is 9-2, which surprises me a bit because I thought he would be the heavy favorite. Newsdad, who finished a close fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes, is also 9-2. Joe Vann, winner of the Illinois Derby, is a surprising 8-1 right now.
The horse I really like is Monzon. He impressively won the Count Fleet Stakes on January 1st of this year, leaving eventual Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire and Wood Memorial runner-up Arthur's Tale behind him. Although he could only manage a distant fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes -- his lone start since then -- I feel that he will rebound to his Count Fleet form today and will be very much in the mix.
Prime Cut could also be a contender, based off of his good second to Derby Kitten in the Lexington Stakes.
My picks are:
1 Monzon
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation
J.R. sees the race differently. He is confident that Prime Cut is the best horse in the race and will prove it today.
His picks are:
1 Prime Cut
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation
I shall post the results in a moment!
-Keelerman
Friday, May 13, 2011
2011 KENTUCKY DERBY RECAP
Just days before the Kentucky Derby, trainer Graham Motion lost his top contender, Toby's Corner, to lameness.
Just days before the Kentucky Derby, jockey John Velazquez lost his mount, Uncle Mo, due to internal problems.
Their chances of winning the 137th Kentucky Derby appeared to be all but lost. Graham Motion still had one contender, Animal Kingdom, but he would be a longshot. John Velazquez had no mount and wasn't likely to get one, for all of the other Derby contenders had already secured riders.
Or did they? Just days before the Kentucky Derby, jockey Robby Albarado was involved in paddock spill in which he broke his nose. He was scheduled to ride none other than Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby.
The decision was made by Barry Irwin -- leader of Team Valor, the racing partnership that owns Animal Kingdom -- and Graham Motion to replace Robby Albarado with a different jockey.
They chose John Velazquez.
And so Animal Kingdom carried the hopes of two skilled veterans of the sport into the Run for the Roses. To win the Derby, he would have to overcome a great deal of history. The son of Leroidesanimaux had made only four starts, all of them coming on either turf or synthetic tracks. No Derby winner had ever won the Kentucky Derby without previously racing on dirt. Furthermore, no Derby winner had won the Run for the Roses off of a six-week layoff since Needles in 1956. Animal Kingdom, unraced since winning the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) on March 26th, was entering the Derby off of a six-week layoff.
On May 7th, Animal Kingdom was escorted to the starting gate at the start of the long homestretch beneath the Twin Spires as a record crowd of over 160,000 fans cheered. Into gate sixteen he went, Velazquez in the saddle. His odds of winning were 20.90-1.
But apparently, Animal Kingdom missed the memo.
For a few brief moments, nineteen three-year-old colts stood in the starting gate, facing the long homestretch that would seem longer when they entered it for the second time nearing the end of the race. None of them had ever before traversed the mile and a quarter journey of which they were about to embark. Nineteen jockeys waited anxiously for the start of the race, fifteen of them attempting to win their first Derby. On board the chestnut colt in the sixteenth post position sat John Velazquez. Only he knows what was floating through his mind in those fleeting seconds before the gates opened. Perhaps he was thinking about his previous mounts in the Run for the Roses -- or the mounts that might have been. In 2010, he had been scheduled to ride heavy Derby favorite Eskendereya, but the colt was injured before the race. In 2009, he was scheduled to ride Florida Derby winner Quality Road in Louisville. But quarter cracks kept the colt from the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Now, Velazquez was sitting on a longshot who would have to buck years of history in order to win the Run for the Roses. Could it be done?
Suddenly the gates flew open and nineteen dreams set off on the longest journey of their young lives, the weights of the dreams of their owners, trainers, and jockeys culminating to much more than the 126 pounds upon their backs.
Quickest into stride was Shackleford, runner-up in the Florida Derby. Under Jesus Castanon, who was riding in his first Derby, the gray colt took the lead and dropped on to the rail. Tracking him in second was Comma to the Top, followed by Soldat and Pants On Fire. Decisive Moment was tucked into a good spot along the rail in fifth, with the well-regarded Nehro sitting on the outside in sixth. Mucho Macho Man had secured good position early while seventh, and longshot Watch Me Go was in eighth after a troubled beginning from post twenty. Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, was in ninth, just in front of Stay Thirsty. Santiva was eleventh.
And then there was Animal Kingdom, sitting about four-wide early on while twelfth. John Velazquez had guided him as close to the inside as possible, and had put his colt into a very good position in between horses as the field rounded the first turn. Far behind him was the favorite, Dialed In. The winner of the Florida Derby was nearly twenty lengths off the pace.
The opening quarter mile was run in a fairly quick 23.24, with Shackleford on top by a length. But although it seemed like a fast pace at first, it wasn't. The half mile was run in :48.63, with Shackleford actually extending his lead to a length and a half. The large colt, who had missed by only a nose in the Florida Derby, was being ridden perfectly by Castanon. The colt was on the lead, on the rail, conserving his energy for the grueling final quarter mile. He would be very difficult to catch if he continued to get away with such a slow pace.
In the meantime, Animal Kingdom was still twelfth, about six lengths from the front. He was bred to be a turf or synthetics horse, had been racing on turf and synthetics, but seemed to be taking to the Churchill Downs main track extremely well. With six furlongs left to run, I imagine that Velazquez was cautiously optimistic.
Up front, Shackleford was continuing with his game of "catch me if you can," running three-quarters of a mile in a pedestrian 1:13.40. It was the slowest pace in the Derby since 1947. Suddenly, Dialed In was no longer the horse to beat. The slow pace would seriously compromise his late run. All of a sudden, Shackleford went from a 23-1 shot to the horse to beat. He had been allowed to set a very easy pace while maintaining an easy lead. As the horses swept into the final turn, Shackleford was only beginning to shift into his best gears. The flying gray colt lowered his head and charged; daring his rivals to catch him.
But John Velazquez didn't ask Animal Kingdom to pounce. Not yet. Later, in the homestretch, he would guide his colt into the clear and ask him for everything he had. That time would come soon enough. For the moment, he was content to let his colt sit and wait.
But Corey Nakatani on Nehro was not. Perhaps he realized that Shackleford was setting a slow pace and would be tough to pass in the homestretch. Not wanting to leave his colt with too much ground to make up in the stretch, he asked Nehro to go. With an explosive run, the colt charged up on the far outside, confronting Shackleford as the field turned for home. A quarter mile of ground remained in front of them, and $1,411,800 hung on the finish line. But alongside the rich check waiting for the winner hung Derby glory; a spot in the history books alongside the names of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Twenty Grand, and Exterminator. Alongside the names of Ben Jones, Lucien Laurin, and James Fitzsimmons. Alongside the names of Eddie Arcaro, Bill Hartack, and Willie Shoemaker. Anyone who has ever become involved in the sport of Thoroughbred horse racing has dreamed of winning the Run for the Roses. For the majority, it is nothing more than a dream. But for a select few, the dream becomes reality.
As Shackleford and Nehro entered the homestretch, locked in a thrilling duel, one can only imagine what their riders were thinking. Castanon had ridden a perfect race, and now his colt had the lead at the top of the Churchill Downs homestretch. Never before had he ridden in the Kentucky Derby. Would he win the country's biggest race on his first try?
Nakatani was surely thinking similar thoughts, but his situation was different from Castanon's. Nakatani was a veteran jockey; one who had ridden in many Derbies over the years but had never before crossed the finish line first. Would this be the year?
Behind them, John Velazquez had just made a decision. He was nearly ready to ask Animal Kingdom for his run. But he needed racing room. There were two openings -- one on the outside and one on the inside. If he was to take the inside route, he could save some ground -- ground that could potentially win or lose the race. But if he was cut off, his chances at winning the Derby were over. The outside route was safer, but covered more ground. It would be sickening to take the outside route, close furiously, and miss by a nose, knowing that if he had taken the rail he might have won. Velazquez chose to take the outside route anyway -- perhaps feeling the power that was beneath him in Animal Kingdom.
Thus to the outside Animal Kingdom flew. With a quarter mile remaining, John Velazquez asked Animal Kingdom for everything he had, and the colt began to respond. Three lengths in front of them was Shackleford, still gamely clinging to the lead. Although obviously tiring, his great heart enabled him to keep going. A lesser horse would have thrown in the towel when confronted by such as worthy challenger as Nehro. But Shackleford was no ordinary horse, and with tremendous courage he was turning back Nehro with only a furlong to go!
Behind them, John Velazquez implored Animal Kingdom for more. The colt was gradually cutting into Shackleford's lead, but not quickly enough! It appeared as though Shackleford would succeed in accomplishing the near-impossible -- going wire-to-wire in the Kentucky Derby. But then, from deep within his tiring muscles, Animal Kingdom summoned additional stamina. With the blood of the champion Leroidesanimaux flowing through his veins, he accelerated courageously. Inch by inch, then foot by foot, he charged after Shackleford. With only a hundred and fifty yards to go, he took over the lead as the screams of the crowd reached their crescendo. In the stands, a trainer watched in awe as the second-stringer in his stable took the lead in country's biggest horse race. A race that defines a career like none other.
Two men, thrown together by disappointment, had teamed up to make the best of the circumstances. A longshot named Animal Kingdom had carried their dreams to Louisville and into the starting gate for the Run for the Roses. When he crossed the finish line first, not only had he defeated his eighteen rivals, but he had defeated over a century of history. He had accomplished what few had felt him to be capable of doing, and in doing so he helped fulfill the dreams of John Velazquez and Graham Motion in dramatic, thrilling fashion.
The record books show that Animal Kingdom crossed the wire first in the 137th Kentucky Derby by 2 3/4 lengths. It had taken him 2:02.04.to complete his mile and a quarter journey. Behind him, Nehro came back on to finish second, while Mucho Macho Man narrowly edged out a tiring Shackleford for third. The colt that looked like a winner at the eighth pole finished fourth, beaten 3 3/4 lengths. But he had given it everything he had, and that's all you can ask.
Prior to the running of this race, the general consensus was that it was a nearly impossible race to handicap. Speed figures, video replays, and past performances are useful tools in handicapping horse races. But if you had handicapped the race strictly by best "feel-good" story, it would have been mighty hard to have not picked this winner.
-Keelerman
Just days before the Kentucky Derby, jockey John Velazquez lost his mount, Uncle Mo, due to internal problems.
Their chances of winning the 137th Kentucky Derby appeared to be all but lost. Graham Motion still had one contender, Animal Kingdom, but he would be a longshot. John Velazquez had no mount and wasn't likely to get one, for all of the other Derby contenders had already secured riders.
Or did they? Just days before the Kentucky Derby, jockey Robby Albarado was involved in paddock spill in which he broke his nose. He was scheduled to ride none other than Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby.
The decision was made by Barry Irwin -- leader of Team Valor, the racing partnership that owns Animal Kingdom -- and Graham Motion to replace Robby Albarado with a different jockey.
They chose John Velazquez.
And so Animal Kingdom carried the hopes of two skilled veterans of the sport into the Run for the Roses. To win the Derby, he would have to overcome a great deal of history. The son of Leroidesanimaux had made only four starts, all of them coming on either turf or synthetic tracks. No Derby winner had ever won the Kentucky Derby without previously racing on dirt. Furthermore, no Derby winner had won the Run for the Roses off of a six-week layoff since Needles in 1956. Animal Kingdom, unraced since winning the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) on March 26th, was entering the Derby off of a six-week layoff.
On May 7th, Animal Kingdom was escorted to the starting gate at the start of the long homestretch beneath the Twin Spires as a record crowd of over 160,000 fans cheered. Into gate sixteen he went, Velazquez in the saddle. His odds of winning were 20.90-1.
But apparently, Animal Kingdom missed the memo.
For a few brief moments, nineteen three-year-old colts stood in the starting gate, facing the long homestretch that would seem longer when they entered it for the second time nearing the end of the race. None of them had ever before traversed the mile and a quarter journey of which they were about to embark. Nineteen jockeys waited anxiously for the start of the race, fifteen of them attempting to win their first Derby. On board the chestnut colt in the sixteenth post position sat John Velazquez. Only he knows what was floating through his mind in those fleeting seconds before the gates opened. Perhaps he was thinking about his previous mounts in the Run for the Roses -- or the mounts that might have been. In 2010, he had been scheduled to ride heavy Derby favorite Eskendereya, but the colt was injured before the race. In 2009, he was scheduled to ride Florida Derby winner Quality Road in Louisville. But quarter cracks kept the colt from the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Now, Velazquez was sitting on a longshot who would have to buck years of history in order to win the Run for the Roses. Could it be done?
Suddenly the gates flew open and nineteen dreams set off on the longest journey of their young lives, the weights of the dreams of their owners, trainers, and jockeys culminating to much more than the 126 pounds upon their backs.
Quickest into stride was Shackleford, runner-up in the Florida Derby. Under Jesus Castanon, who was riding in his first Derby, the gray colt took the lead and dropped on to the rail. Tracking him in second was Comma to the Top, followed by Soldat and Pants On Fire. Decisive Moment was tucked into a good spot along the rail in fifth, with the well-regarded Nehro sitting on the outside in sixth. Mucho Macho Man had secured good position early while seventh, and longshot Watch Me Go was in eighth after a troubled beginning from post twenty. Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, was in ninth, just in front of Stay Thirsty. Santiva was eleventh.
And then there was Animal Kingdom, sitting about four-wide early on while twelfth. John Velazquez had guided him as close to the inside as possible, and had put his colt into a very good position in between horses as the field rounded the first turn. Far behind him was the favorite, Dialed In. The winner of the Florida Derby was nearly twenty lengths off the pace.
The opening quarter mile was run in a fairly quick 23.24, with Shackleford on top by a length. But although it seemed like a fast pace at first, it wasn't. The half mile was run in :48.63, with Shackleford actually extending his lead to a length and a half. The large colt, who had missed by only a nose in the Florida Derby, was being ridden perfectly by Castanon. The colt was on the lead, on the rail, conserving his energy for the grueling final quarter mile. He would be very difficult to catch if he continued to get away with such a slow pace.
In the meantime, Animal Kingdom was still twelfth, about six lengths from the front. He was bred to be a turf or synthetics horse, had been racing on turf and synthetics, but seemed to be taking to the Churchill Downs main track extremely well. With six furlongs left to run, I imagine that Velazquez was cautiously optimistic.
Up front, Shackleford was continuing with his game of "catch me if you can," running three-quarters of a mile in a pedestrian 1:13.40. It was the slowest pace in the Derby since 1947. Suddenly, Dialed In was no longer the horse to beat. The slow pace would seriously compromise his late run. All of a sudden, Shackleford went from a 23-1 shot to the horse to beat. He had been allowed to set a very easy pace while maintaining an easy lead. As the horses swept into the final turn, Shackleford was only beginning to shift into his best gears. The flying gray colt lowered his head and charged; daring his rivals to catch him.
But John Velazquez didn't ask Animal Kingdom to pounce. Not yet. Later, in the homestretch, he would guide his colt into the clear and ask him for everything he had. That time would come soon enough. For the moment, he was content to let his colt sit and wait.
But Corey Nakatani on Nehro was not. Perhaps he realized that Shackleford was setting a slow pace and would be tough to pass in the homestretch. Not wanting to leave his colt with too much ground to make up in the stretch, he asked Nehro to go. With an explosive run, the colt charged up on the far outside, confronting Shackleford as the field turned for home. A quarter mile of ground remained in front of them, and $1,411,800 hung on the finish line. But alongside the rich check waiting for the winner hung Derby glory; a spot in the history books alongside the names of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Twenty Grand, and Exterminator. Alongside the names of Ben Jones, Lucien Laurin, and James Fitzsimmons. Alongside the names of Eddie Arcaro, Bill Hartack, and Willie Shoemaker. Anyone who has ever become involved in the sport of Thoroughbred horse racing has dreamed of winning the Run for the Roses. For the majority, it is nothing more than a dream. But for a select few, the dream becomes reality.
As Shackleford and Nehro entered the homestretch, locked in a thrilling duel, one can only imagine what their riders were thinking. Castanon had ridden a perfect race, and now his colt had the lead at the top of the Churchill Downs homestretch. Never before had he ridden in the Kentucky Derby. Would he win the country's biggest race on his first try?
Nakatani was surely thinking similar thoughts, but his situation was different from Castanon's. Nakatani was a veteran jockey; one who had ridden in many Derbies over the years but had never before crossed the finish line first. Would this be the year?
Behind them, John Velazquez had just made a decision. He was nearly ready to ask Animal Kingdom for his run. But he needed racing room. There were two openings -- one on the outside and one on the inside. If he was to take the inside route, he could save some ground -- ground that could potentially win or lose the race. But if he was cut off, his chances at winning the Derby were over. The outside route was safer, but covered more ground. It would be sickening to take the outside route, close furiously, and miss by a nose, knowing that if he had taken the rail he might have won. Velazquez chose to take the outside route anyway -- perhaps feeling the power that was beneath him in Animal Kingdom.
Thus to the outside Animal Kingdom flew. With a quarter mile remaining, John Velazquez asked Animal Kingdom for everything he had, and the colt began to respond. Three lengths in front of them was Shackleford, still gamely clinging to the lead. Although obviously tiring, his great heart enabled him to keep going. A lesser horse would have thrown in the towel when confronted by such as worthy challenger as Nehro. But Shackleford was no ordinary horse, and with tremendous courage he was turning back Nehro with only a furlong to go!
Behind them, John Velazquez implored Animal Kingdom for more. The colt was gradually cutting into Shackleford's lead, but not quickly enough! It appeared as though Shackleford would succeed in accomplishing the near-impossible -- going wire-to-wire in the Kentucky Derby. But then, from deep within his tiring muscles, Animal Kingdom summoned additional stamina. With the blood of the champion Leroidesanimaux flowing through his veins, he accelerated courageously. Inch by inch, then foot by foot, he charged after Shackleford. With only a hundred and fifty yards to go, he took over the lead as the screams of the crowd reached their crescendo. In the stands, a trainer watched in awe as the second-stringer in his stable took the lead in country's biggest horse race. A race that defines a career like none other.
Two men, thrown together by disappointment, had teamed up to make the best of the circumstances. A longshot named Animal Kingdom had carried their dreams to Louisville and into the starting gate for the Run for the Roses. When he crossed the finish line first, not only had he defeated his eighteen rivals, but he had defeated over a century of history. He had accomplished what few had felt him to be capable of doing, and in doing so he helped fulfill the dreams of John Velazquez and Graham Motion in dramatic, thrilling fashion.
The record books show that Animal Kingdom crossed the wire first in the 137th Kentucky Derby by 2 3/4 lengths. It had taken him 2:02.04.to complete his mile and a quarter journey. Behind him, Nehro came back on to finish second, while Mucho Macho Man narrowly edged out a tiring Shackleford for third. The colt that looked like a winner at the eighth pole finished fourth, beaten 3 3/4 lengths. But he had given it everything he had, and that's all you can ask.
Prior to the running of this race, the general consensus was that it was a nearly impossible race to handicap. Speed figures, video replays, and past performances are useful tools in handicapping horse races. But if you had handicapped the race strictly by best "feel-good" story, it would have been mighty hard to have not picked this winner.
-Keelerman
Saturday, May 07, 2011
ANIMAL KINGDOM WINS THE KENTUCKY DERBY!
Animal Kingdom quickened strongly in the Churchill Downs homestretch to win the 137th Kentucky Derby (gr. I) by just over a length.
The winner, who is owned by Team Valor International and trained by Graham Motion, settled off of a moderate early pace set by Shackleford and Comma to the Top. Decisive Moment and Pants On Fire were also up close in the early going, and Nehro wasn't far behind either.
Under John Velazquez, Animal Kingdom made a bold run to reach contention turning into the homestretch. Shackleford was still gamely clinging to the lead, and Nehro was right in contention as well. But Animal Kingdom proved just too good, charging home on the far outside to win the race.
The final time was 2:02.04. Nehro finished second, followed by Mucho Macho Man and Shackleford. Dialed In failed to close sufficiently off of the slow pace and finished ninth, I believe.
-Keelerman
The winner, who is owned by Team Valor International and trained by Graham Motion, settled off of a moderate early pace set by Shackleford and Comma to the Top. Decisive Moment and Pants On Fire were also up close in the early going, and Nehro wasn't far behind either.
Under John Velazquez, Animal Kingdom made a bold run to reach contention turning into the homestretch. Shackleford was still gamely clinging to the lead, and Nehro was right in contention as well. But Animal Kingdom proved just too good, charging home on the far outside to win the race.
The final time was 2:02.04. Nehro finished second, followed by Mucho Macho Man and Shackleford. Dialed In failed to close sufficiently off of the slow pace and finished ninth, I believe.
-Keelerman
KENTUCKY DERBY UPDATE #3
Just a few of the questions that dominate today's Kentucky Derby picture:
1. Can Archarcharch win from gate 1?
2. How will Master of Hounds, Brilliant Speed, and others take to the dirt?
3. Can Soldat rebound off his fifth place finish in the Florida Derby?
4. Will Dialed In get a good trip?
These questions and others are what makes handicapping the Derby so difficult!
So far, jockeys with mounts in the Derby to have won a race at Churchill today are Ramon Dominguez (Stay Thirsty), Garrett Gomez (Master of Hounds), John Velazquez (Animal Kingdom), Corey Nakatani (Nehro), and Rafael Bejarano (Watch Me Go).
-Keelerman
1. Can Archarcharch win from gate 1?
2. How will Master of Hounds, Brilliant Speed, and others take to the dirt?
3. Can Soldat rebound off his fifth place finish in the Florida Derby?
4. Will Dialed In get a good trip?
These questions and others are what makes handicapping the Derby so difficult!
So far, jockeys with mounts in the Derby to have won a race at Churchill today are Ramon Dominguez (Stay Thirsty), Garrett Gomez (Master of Hounds), John Velazquez (Animal Kingdom), Corey Nakatani (Nehro), and Rafael Bejarano (Watch Me Go).
-Keelerman
KENTUCKY DERBY UPDATE #2
Here's an update on the current favorites with seventy minutes to go:
Dialed In - 5/1
Pants On Fire - 7/1
Mucho Macho Man - 9/1
Midnight Interlude - 9/1
Twice the Appeal - 10/1
The longest shots on the board are Decisive Moment and Comma to the Top, who are both at 35-1.
-Keelerman
Dialed In - 5/1
Pants On Fire - 7/1
Mucho Macho Man - 9/1
Midnight Interlude - 9/1
Twice the Appeal - 10/1
The longest shots on the board are Decisive Moment and Comma to the Top, who are both at 35-1.
-Keelerman
GET STORMY WINS THE TURF CLASSIC STAKES!
Get Stormy took the field gate-to-wire in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I) at Churchill Downs this afternoon, holding off late bids from Smart Bid and Doubles Partner to win the $500,000 event by a short length.
Under Ramon Dominguez, the colt set a moderate pace while maintaining an easy lead. Favored Prince Will I Am was far back in the early going.
Turning for home Get Stormy kicked clear of the field while finding another gear and kept going all the way to the wire, courageously holding off numerous other runners in the final furlongs. The final time was 1:50.81. Smart Bid finished a nose clear of Doubles Partner, with Rahystrada finishing fourth. Court Vision and Prince Will I Am were coming late, but not fast enough.
Battle of Hastings was pulled up on the first turn.
-Keelerman
Under Ramon Dominguez, the colt set a moderate pace while maintaining an easy lead. Favored Prince Will I Am was far back in the early going.
Turning for home Get Stormy kicked clear of the field while finding another gear and kept going all the way to the wire, courageously holding off numerous other runners in the final furlongs. The final time was 1:50.81. Smart Bid finished a nose clear of Doubles Partner, with Rahystrada finishing fourth. Court Vision and Prince Will I Am were coming late, but not fast enough.
Battle of Hastings was pulled up on the first turn.
-Keelerman
KENTUCKY DERBY UPDATE #1
It is currently about an hour and fifty minutes until post time for the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby. Dialed In is currently the favorite at 5-1, with Pants On Fire the second choice at 7-1. Midnight Interlude and Twice the Appeal are also well bet.
There is no chance for an Oak/Derby jockey double this year, for Oaks winner Martin Garcia does not have a mount in the Derby.
The track is labeled fast, and the turf course is firm. It appears as though the rain may have finally gone away!
-Keelerman
There is no chance for an Oak/Derby jockey double this year, for Oaks winner Martin Garcia does not have a mount in the Derby.
The track is labeled fast, and the turf course is firm. It appears as though the rain may have finally gone away!
-Keelerman
AIKENITE WINS THE CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES!
Aikenite rallied furiously in the final strides to just edge out Apriority for victory in the $300,000 Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs this afternoon.
Under John Velazquez, the four-year-old colt sat a few lengths off of the early pace set jointly by longshots Captain Cherokee and Delong Road. The early fractions were moderate -- :22.56 and :45 flat.
Turning for home, Captain Candyman Can took over the lead and appeared to be on his way to a third straight victory, but Aikenite closing resolutely. Apriority was also looming a serious threat, and Ibboyee was also charging fast.
It was a photo finish, but Aikenite got his nose in front at the last possible moment to win the race by a very short nose. Apriority finished 2nd, followed by Ibboyee and Captain Candyman Can. The final time was 1:21.40.
-Keelerman
Under John Velazquez, the four-year-old colt sat a few lengths off of the early pace set jointly by longshots Captain Cherokee and Delong Road. The early fractions were moderate -- :22.56 and :45 flat.
Turning for home, Captain Candyman Can took over the lead and appeared to be on his way to a third straight victory, but Aikenite closing resolutely. Apriority was also looming a serious threat, and Ibboyee was also charging fast.
It was a photo finish, but Aikenite got his nose in front at the last possible moment to win the race by a very short nose. Apriority finished 2nd, followed by Ibboyee and Captain Candyman Can. The final time was 1:21.40.
-Keelerman
AVIATE WINS THE CHURCHILL DOWNS DISTAFF TURF MILE!
Aviate closed furiously on the extreme outside to win the Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs this afternoon by just under a length.
With Kent Desormeaux aboard, the filly settled nicely off of a quick pace set by Kiss Mine, who opened up three or four lengths on the field early while setting fractions of :23.75 and :47.81. In second was Tapitsfly, with Upperline not far behind her.
Turning for home, Kiss Mine found another gear and for a moment appeared to be on her way to an upset victory. But Aviate charged home gamely to win the race in 1:36.67.
Aruna finished well for second, while Fantasia rallied up the inside for third. Zapparition was up for fourth, while Kiss Mine tired late to finish off the board.
-Keelerman
With Kent Desormeaux aboard, the filly settled nicely off of a quick pace set by Kiss Mine, who opened up three or four lengths on the field early while setting fractions of :23.75 and :47.81. In second was Tapitsfly, with Upperline not far behind her.
Turning for home, Kiss Mine found another gear and for a moment appeared to be on her way to an upset victory. But Aviate charged home gamely to win the race in 1:36.67.
Aruna finished well for second, while Fantasia rallied up the inside for third. Zapparition was up for fourth, while Kiss Mine tired late to finish off the board.
-Keelerman
REGALLY READY WINS THE TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT!
Regally Ready pulled off a mild upset in the first stakes race of the day at Churchill Downs, wearing down Bridgetown in deep stretch to win the $100,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes (gr. III) by about a length.
Ridden by Corey Nakatani, the four-year-old gelding settled just off of a quick early pace set by Bridgetown, who ran the opening quarter mile in :21.89. He made a bold run on the outside to reach contention and hit the wire in :56.57.
Favored Chamberlain Bridge rallied late for third.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Corey Nakatani, the four-year-old gelding settled just off of a quick early pace set by Bridgetown, who ran the opening quarter mile in :21.89. He made a bold run on the outside to reach contention and hit the wire in :56.57.
Favored Chamberlain Bridge rallied late for third.
-Keelerman
KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS AND PICKS
The last five months have all led to one day.
The last five months have all led to one racetrack.
The last five months have all led to the Kentucky Derby.
It can be hard to believe, but the 137th running of the grade I Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands has finally arrived. Already, the complexion of the race has seriously changed. Uncle Mo, the champion two-year-old male of last year and one of the favorites for the Run for the Roses, was scratched this morning. His jockey, John Velazquez, will instead ride Animal Kingdom, whose own rider was injured in a recent spill.
As I did on my Kentucky Oaks analysis, I will be dividing up all of the Derby contenders into three different categories – Unlikely Contenders, Contenders, and Top Contenders – and writing up a short paragraph summarizing my thoughts about each starter.
Let’s begin handicapping:
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
WATCH ME GO - This son of West Acre is the longshot in the field at 50-1. Winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) in a 44-1 upset, the colt finished a distant sixth as the favorite in the Illinois Derby, his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. Seeing that he has drawn gate twenty and will need a perfectly fast track to fire his best shot, I doubt that the circumstances necessary for him to win will arise.
TWINSPIRED - Although he ran a strong race in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) to finish second beaten a nose, his one performance on dirt yielded an eighth place finish in the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park. His best performances have come on synthetic tracks, so all the son of Harlan's Holiday seems to have the pedigree to win at a mile and a quarter, I suspect that he won't care for the dirt in the Run for the Roses.
CONTENDERS
BRILLIANT SPEED - Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, this son of Dynaformer showed a brilliant late kick in that race which enabled him to close his final three eighths of a mile in less than :35 seconds. He tried dirt twice last year sprinting -- earning Beyer speed figures of 40 and 32 -- but has improved considerably since then. With a pedigree that screams distance, the only question that remains is whether or not he can transfer his synthetic form to dirt -- a big question indeed. But he had a very nice breeze over a sloppy Churchill Downs main track on May 2nd, so if the track is wet this afternoon he could be right in the mix.
COMMA TO THE TOP - Distance is the major question with this son of Bwana Charlie. His pedigree implies that a mile and a quarter is beyond his range, and his recent races seem to agree. He has failed to win in three starts this year, has tired in the stretch of all three, and has been known to drift considerably in the stretch. But his last performance -- a runner-up effort in the Santa Anita Derby -- was strong indeed. Beaten a head by Midnight Interlude, he closed his final eighth in a good :12 3/5. With a blinkers modification being attempted, and with Patrick Valenzuela in the saddle, this colt might just hang on for a piece of the purse if the pace is slower than expected.
DECISIVE MOMENT - This colt actually has a lot going for him. At two, his biggest claim to fame was a runner-up effort in the rich Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III). This year, the son of With Distinction has won the Jean Lafitte Stakes, finished fifth in the Risen Star with a mild injury, and second in the Spiral Stakes despite a tough trip. He has been at Churchill Downs for over a month now, getting a feel for the track, has been breezing nicely, and has drawn a good post position. Don't be surprised if this colt enters the Churchill Downs homestretch with the lead.
PANTS ON FIRE - The winner of the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) doesn't seem to be getting a whole lot of respect. A son of Jump Start, the colt failed while well bet in both the Count Fleet Stakes and LeComte Stakes (gr. III) earlier this year, then ran sixth as a longshot in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). But he trained nicely up to the Louisiana Derby and turned in the race of his life, gamely holding off Nehro and Mucho Macho Man to win by a neck with a final eighth in :12 3/5. A sharp half-mile breeze at Churchill Downs on May 1st signals that he is ready for this race, and he should be able to secure a good stalking trip under Rosie Napravnik. He should be right there as the field turns for home.
DERBY KITTEN - A son of Kitten's Joy, Derby Kitten entered the race for which he is named at the last possible moment. After upsetting the Lexington Stakes at 9-1, it looked like he wouldn't have the graded earnings to make the Derby field. But late defections allowed him to sneak into the field. In his last two races, he has shown the ability to sit five or six lengths off of a moderate pace and finish strongly -- something that could serve him well in the Run for the Roses. With a good trip, I expect to see him flying at the finish.
SOLDAT - We know he loves slop -- and if the track turns up sloppy this afternoon, he'll be right in the mix. The son of War Front showed great talent on turf last fall, winning the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III) and finishing second in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) and the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. II). This year, he proved himself to be a legitimate Derby contender by winning an allowance race in the slop with a Beyer of 103 and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) by two lengths. Although he finished a distant fifth in the Florida Derby -- the first time in his career that he didn't run 1-2 -- he had plenty of excuses and I wouldn't be surprised to see him rebound today. But he'll have to overcome gate seventeen.
ANIMAL KINGDOM - This lightly-raced son of Leroidesanimaux is bred to succeed on turf, yet here he is in the Kentucky Derby as one of the top contenders. Although this will be his first start on dirt, he has proven himself to be a very fine colt indeed. In his last start, he closed with a rush to win the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) by 2 3/4 lengths in a very sharp effort. He'll have to show the same form on dirt if he is to win the Derby, but I wouldn't count him out. He should be coming late in deep stretch.
SANTIVA - This is a colt that does not get much respect despite good credentials. As a juvenile, he ran second in the grade I Breeders' Futurity and won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill Downs by a half-length. This year, he ran a strong second to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star Stakes and finished a troubled ninth in the Blue Grass Stakes. But his Blue Grass effort wasn't as bad as it appears to be -- he was only beaten 6 1/2 lengths and never had racing room. All this son of Giant's Causeway needs to be in contention this afternoon is some racing luck.
MASTER OF HOUNDS - This colt is one of the big question marks in the Derby. A well-bred son of Kingmambo, he has raced in four different countries -- England, Ireland, the United States, and Dubai. As a juvenile, he finished third in the group I Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) here in the U.S. despite a rough trip. He has only raced once this year, finishing second beaten a nose by the fine filly Khawlah in the group II UAE Derby. He's never raced on turf, arrived at Churchill on Tuesday, and only has one prep race -- a lot to overcome. But don't count him out. This colt has the talent.
TWICE THE APPEAL - I imagine that the majority of people would have written off Twice the Appeal as a non-contender if it weren't for the fact that he will be ridden by Calvin Borel. Winner of the Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park in New Mexico, the son of Successful Appeal would have to turn in a career-best effort to win the Kentucky Derby -- but we all remember what Calvin Borel did with Mine That Bird. Seeing that he has drawn gate three, I imagine that Calvin Borel will have no trouble guiding Twice the Appeal to the rail, where the colt will likely receive a perfect trip and win if he is good enough. Can Borel win three Derbies in a row? Twice the Appeal just may enable him to do so.
STAY THIRSTY - He was the lesser half of the Mike Repole/Todd Pletcher Derby team. Now that Uncle Mo has scratched, he is the only half. A son of Bernardini, Stay Thirsty is the only runner for last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile to return for the Kentucky Derby -- an unusual occurrence indeed. He has made two starts this year, winning the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct and running a distant seventh in the Florida Derby. In the Gotham, he decisively defeated Toby's Corner, who went on to win the Wood Memorial. In the Florida Derby, he had plenty of excuses -- perhaps he did like wearing blinkers, or perhaps he didn't care for the extremely hot weather.
SHACKLEFORD - This son of Forestry may have among the best chances of any horse in this race. After breaking his maiden second time out, he won an allowance race over Caper's Touch by 2 1/4 lengths. A fifth place finish -- beaten over 23 lengths -- in the Fountain of Youth Stakes was next, but he apparently had some sort of excuse that day for he rebounded brilliantly in the Florida Derby, missing by a short head to Dialed In after setting a challenging pace. From gate fourteen, the intriguing colt should be able to secure an excellent tracking spot in the early going. He has been training beautifully -- he breezed five furlongs in :58 4/5 on April 30th -- and will be tough to beat if he has the lead in the stretch.
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE - On March 20th, Midnight Interlude won his first race. Slightly less than three weeks later, he won the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). Suddenly, he was in the Derby picture. A son of War Chant, Midnight Interlude showed a lot of determination and talent in the Santa Anita Derby. Despite racing wide throughout, he charged home gamely in the stretch -- while dodging a drifting Comma to the Top -- to win the race by a head. It's obvious that the talent is there, but he has a lot of history to overcome. He did not race at age two -- something every Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 has done. If Midnight Interlude is to win the Derby, he will have to overcome this 128-year-old trend. But he may just have the raw talent to do it. He seems to have some decent tactical speed and should be able to establish a good position in the early going.
TOP CONTENDERS
DIALED IN - The Kentucky Derby burst into the Derby picture back in January, when he rallied furiously to win the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park by a length and a half -- in what was only his second start. Fast-forward to April 3rd, when the son of Mineshaft closed with a rush over a speed-favoring track to nail Shackleford in the shadow of the wire in the Florida Derby. These are the performances that have made Dialed In the deserving favorite for the 137th Run for the Roses. Like any deep closer -- with the exception, of course, of Zenyatta -- he will be at the mercy of the pace and will need a clean, traffic-free trip if he is to win. The colt has had a light training schedule leading up to this race, but trainer Nick Zito is confident that Dialed In is ready. I am too. Interestingly, the colt was beaten in an allowance race against older horses in between the Holy Bull in the Florida Derby -- falling a half-length short of stablemate Equestrio. Equestrio came back to finish a narrowly-beaten third in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) yesterday at huge odds. Intriguing. . .
NEHRO - The other son of Mineshaft in the Derby, Nehro lost his first two races in unimpressive performances. On the morning of February 21st, 2011, he was on nobody's Derby radar. He was just an ordinary three-year-old running in an ordinary maiden special weight race at Oaklawn Park. That is, until he burst past horses with a brilliant late run to win the race by 4 1/2 lengths. Suddenly, he had Derby potential. Entered in the Lousiana Derby, he closed well along a rail that may have been bad to finish second, beaten a neck. A similar late run once again fell short in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), missing by a neck to Archarcharch. But this colt has been improving with every start, is versatile, and packs quite the late kick. He'll be breaking from post nineteen -- which has never produced a Derby winner -- but this colt may be the one to change that. Expect to see him charging furiously in the final eighth of a mile.
ARCHARCHARCH - This colt has never gained much respect. As a juvenile, he won the Sugar Bowl Stakes at six furlong before running a distant fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes in his sophomore debut. Sent off at 14-1 in the Southwest Stakes, he burst clear on the outside to take the lead and held off his rivals to the wire, winning by a length. He then finished third in the Rebel Stakes behind The Factor -- despite being kicked in the starting gate by Alternation, who had flipped over in the adjacent stall. Sent off at 25-1 in the Arkansas Derby, the colt took over the lead in deep stretch and held off the late run of Nehro to win the prestigious event by a neck. Although he will be starting from the dreaded gate one -- remember Lookin' at Lucky? -- this colt has been training extremely well and is getting good at the right time. With a pedigree that should carry him the distance, a clean trip is all this son of Arch needs to wear the roses this afternoon.
MUCHO MACHO MAN - This son of Macho Uno showed promising form as a juvenile, finishing second to the highly regarded To Honor and Serve in both the Nashua (gr. II) and the Remsen (gr. II). As a three-year-old, this large colt has made three starts. In his 2011 debut, he finished fourth in the Holy Bull Stakes after pressing a fast pace while four-wide. He rebounded sharply in the Risen Star Stakes, striding away from the field to win by a length and a half. Sent off as the 3-2 favorite in the Louisiana Derby, he lost a shoe at the start of the race but still ran well enough to finish third, beaten just three-quarters of a length. Since then, he has been training brilliantly and appears ready to run the race of his life. From gate thirteen, I expect him to settle into fourth or fifth place in the early going and finish strongly in the homestretch.
There you have it -- my thoughts on the nineteen Derby starters. Now all that remains is to sort these thoughts into some form of selections.
Last year, I made several different kinds of selections. One which I though was interesting was the "Random Picks", where I simply draw names from a hat to see what happened. I shall do that again this year.
Thus the "Random Picks" are:
1 Watch Me Go
2 Shackleford
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Midnight Interlude
5 Decisive Moment
6 Santiva
7 Animal Kingdom
8 Stay Thirsty
9 Dialed In
10 Nehro
11 Master of Hounds
12 Pants On Fire
13 Derby Kitten
14 Mucho Macho Man
15 Soldat
16 Archarcharch
17 Brilliant Speed
18 Comma to the Top
19 Twinspired
Fascinating indeed. As usual, the hat is attempting to hit some sort of incredible superfecta. . . :)
Another interesting set of selections I made last year were the "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" picks, which as the name implies, puts the field in order based on their last Beyer speed figure.
This list looks like this:
1 Archarcharch (Dead-heat with Nehro)
2 Nehro (Dead-heat with Archarcharch)
3 Midnight Interlude (Dead-heat with Comma to the Top)
4 Comma to the Top (Dead-heat with Midnight Interlude)
5 Pants On Fire (Dead-heat with Animal Kingdom)
6 Animal Kingdom (Dead-heat with Pants On Fire)
7 Brilliant Speed (Dead-heat with Dialed In, Twinspired, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
8 Dialed In (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Twinspired, Mucho Macco Man, and Shackleford)
9 Twinspired (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
10 Mucho Macho Man (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Shackleford)
11 Shackleford (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Mucho Macho Man)
12 Derby Kitten
13 Twice the Appeal (Dead-heat with Decisive Moment)
14 Decisive Moment (Dead-heat with Twice the Appeal)
15 Santiva
16 Master of Hounds
17 Soldat
18 Stay Thirsty (Dead-heat with Watch Me Go)
19 Watch Me Go (Dead-heat with Stay Thirsty)
As usual, when you go by "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race", you end up with a lot of dead-heats. I doubt that there will be even one dead-heat, let alone a five-horse dead-heat. . . :)
I suppose now that it's time for my real selections. I've gone back and forth. . . and back and forth. . . and then back and forth some more. . . and then I went back and forth some. . . and then back and forth. . . then back and forth some more. . .
Finally, I came up with these:
1 Dialed In
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Decisive Moment
8 Animal Kingdom
9 Archarcharch
9 Soldat
10 Derby Kitten
11 Santiva
12 Stay Thirsty
13 Pants On Fire
14 Brilliant Speed
15 Comma to the Top
17 Master of Hounds
18 Twinspired
19 Watch Me Go
To be perfectly honest, I could have gone anywhere with these picks. I'm worried that Master of Hounds -- shipping in just a few days before the race and having never raced on dirt -- will fail to fire his best shot. And although Soldat should relish sloppy conditions if this arise, I'm not completely sure that he will get a good trip. The same goes for Archarcharch, a colt that I really think will have every chance at winning if he doesn't get bumped hard in the first furlong -- which is a real possibility in a race like this.
Now here are J.R.'s picks:
1 Nehro
2 Brilliant Speed
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Dialed In
5 Decisive Moment
6 Master of Hounds
7 Soldat
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Stay Thirsty
10 Animal Kingdom
11 Archarcharch
12 Shackleford
13 Twinspired
14 Twice the Appeal
15 Pants On Fire
16 Derby Kitten
17 Watch Me Go
18 Santiva
19 Comma to the Top
He's liked Nehro since the colt finished second in the Louisiana Derby, and the Arkansas Derby only solidified the colt as his top selection. He does not believe that breaking from gate nineteen will hurt the colt's chances, and is very confident that he will get up for victory this time. He also believes that Brilliant Speed is going to surprise a lot of people by taking to the dirt and running extremely well. As for Dialed In, he believes that the colt just won't get there in time.
And so that's it. The Derby is finally here. It's just a few hours away. I shall be live updating throughout the day, posting the results of the major undercard races at they are run. Now go out and enjoy the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby!
-Keelerman
The last five months have all led to one racetrack.
The last five months have all led to the Kentucky Derby.
It can be hard to believe, but the 137th running of the grade I Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands has finally arrived. Already, the complexion of the race has seriously changed. Uncle Mo, the champion two-year-old male of last year and one of the favorites for the Run for the Roses, was scratched this morning. His jockey, John Velazquez, will instead ride Animal Kingdom, whose own rider was injured in a recent spill.
As I did on my Kentucky Oaks analysis, I will be dividing up all of the Derby contenders into three different categories – Unlikely Contenders, Contenders, and Top Contenders – and writing up a short paragraph summarizing my thoughts about each starter.
Let’s begin handicapping:
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
WATCH ME GO - This son of West Acre is the longshot in the field at 50-1. Winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) in a 44-1 upset, the colt finished a distant sixth as the favorite in the Illinois Derby, his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. Seeing that he has drawn gate twenty and will need a perfectly fast track to fire his best shot, I doubt that the circumstances necessary for him to win will arise.
TWINSPIRED - Although he ran a strong race in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) to finish second beaten a nose, his one performance on dirt yielded an eighth place finish in the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park. His best performances have come on synthetic tracks, so all the son of Harlan's Holiday seems to have the pedigree to win at a mile and a quarter, I suspect that he won't care for the dirt in the Run for the Roses.
CONTENDERS
BRILLIANT SPEED - Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, this son of Dynaformer showed a brilliant late kick in that race which enabled him to close his final three eighths of a mile in less than :35 seconds. He tried dirt twice last year sprinting -- earning Beyer speed figures of 40 and 32 -- but has improved considerably since then. With a pedigree that screams distance, the only question that remains is whether or not he can transfer his synthetic form to dirt -- a big question indeed. But he had a very nice breeze over a sloppy Churchill Downs main track on May 2nd, so if the track is wet this afternoon he could be right in the mix.
COMMA TO THE TOP - Distance is the major question with this son of Bwana Charlie. His pedigree implies that a mile and a quarter is beyond his range, and his recent races seem to agree. He has failed to win in three starts this year, has tired in the stretch of all three, and has been known to drift considerably in the stretch. But his last performance -- a runner-up effort in the Santa Anita Derby -- was strong indeed. Beaten a head by Midnight Interlude, he closed his final eighth in a good :12 3/5. With a blinkers modification being attempted, and with Patrick Valenzuela in the saddle, this colt might just hang on for a piece of the purse if the pace is slower than expected.
DECISIVE MOMENT - This colt actually has a lot going for him. At two, his biggest claim to fame was a runner-up effort in the rich Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III). This year, the son of With Distinction has won the Jean Lafitte Stakes, finished fifth in the Risen Star with a mild injury, and second in the Spiral Stakes despite a tough trip. He has been at Churchill Downs for over a month now, getting a feel for the track, has been breezing nicely, and has drawn a good post position. Don't be surprised if this colt enters the Churchill Downs homestretch with the lead.
PANTS ON FIRE - The winner of the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) doesn't seem to be getting a whole lot of respect. A son of Jump Start, the colt failed while well bet in both the Count Fleet Stakes and LeComte Stakes (gr. III) earlier this year, then ran sixth as a longshot in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). But he trained nicely up to the Louisiana Derby and turned in the race of his life, gamely holding off Nehro and Mucho Macho Man to win by a neck with a final eighth in :12 3/5. A sharp half-mile breeze at Churchill Downs on May 1st signals that he is ready for this race, and he should be able to secure a good stalking trip under Rosie Napravnik. He should be right there as the field turns for home.
DERBY KITTEN - A son of Kitten's Joy, Derby Kitten entered the race for which he is named at the last possible moment. After upsetting the Lexington Stakes at 9-1, it looked like he wouldn't have the graded earnings to make the Derby field. But late defections allowed him to sneak into the field. In his last two races, he has shown the ability to sit five or six lengths off of a moderate pace and finish strongly -- something that could serve him well in the Run for the Roses. With a good trip, I expect to see him flying at the finish.
SOLDAT - We know he loves slop -- and if the track turns up sloppy this afternoon, he'll be right in the mix. The son of War Front showed great talent on turf last fall, winning the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III) and finishing second in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) and the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. II). This year, he proved himself to be a legitimate Derby contender by winning an allowance race in the slop with a Beyer of 103 and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) by two lengths. Although he finished a distant fifth in the Florida Derby -- the first time in his career that he didn't run 1-2 -- he had plenty of excuses and I wouldn't be surprised to see him rebound today. But he'll have to overcome gate seventeen.
ANIMAL KINGDOM - This lightly-raced son of Leroidesanimaux is bred to succeed on turf, yet here he is in the Kentucky Derby as one of the top contenders. Although this will be his first start on dirt, he has proven himself to be a very fine colt indeed. In his last start, he closed with a rush to win the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) by 2 3/4 lengths in a very sharp effort. He'll have to show the same form on dirt if he is to win the Derby, but I wouldn't count him out. He should be coming late in deep stretch.
SANTIVA - This is a colt that does not get much respect despite good credentials. As a juvenile, he ran second in the grade I Breeders' Futurity and won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill Downs by a half-length. This year, he ran a strong second to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star Stakes and finished a troubled ninth in the Blue Grass Stakes. But his Blue Grass effort wasn't as bad as it appears to be -- he was only beaten 6 1/2 lengths and never had racing room. All this son of Giant's Causeway needs to be in contention this afternoon is some racing luck.
MASTER OF HOUNDS - This colt is one of the big question marks in the Derby. A well-bred son of Kingmambo, he has raced in four different countries -- England, Ireland, the United States, and Dubai. As a juvenile, he finished third in the group I Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) here in the U.S. despite a rough trip. He has only raced once this year, finishing second beaten a nose by the fine filly Khawlah in the group II UAE Derby. He's never raced on turf, arrived at Churchill on Tuesday, and only has one prep race -- a lot to overcome. But don't count him out. This colt has the talent.
TWICE THE APPEAL - I imagine that the majority of people would have written off Twice the Appeal as a non-contender if it weren't for the fact that he will be ridden by Calvin Borel. Winner of the Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park in New Mexico, the son of Successful Appeal would have to turn in a career-best effort to win the Kentucky Derby -- but we all remember what Calvin Borel did with Mine That Bird. Seeing that he has drawn gate three, I imagine that Calvin Borel will have no trouble guiding Twice the Appeal to the rail, where the colt will likely receive a perfect trip and win if he is good enough. Can Borel win three Derbies in a row? Twice the Appeal just may enable him to do so.
STAY THIRSTY - He was the lesser half of the Mike Repole/Todd Pletcher Derby team. Now that Uncle Mo has scratched, he is the only half. A son of Bernardini, Stay Thirsty is the only runner for last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile to return for the Kentucky Derby -- an unusual occurrence indeed. He has made two starts this year, winning the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct and running a distant seventh in the Florida Derby. In the Gotham, he decisively defeated Toby's Corner, who went on to win the Wood Memorial. In the Florida Derby, he had plenty of excuses -- perhaps he did like wearing blinkers, or perhaps he didn't care for the extremely hot weather.
SHACKLEFORD - This son of Forestry may have among the best chances of any horse in this race. After breaking his maiden second time out, he won an allowance race over Caper's Touch by 2 1/4 lengths. A fifth place finish -- beaten over 23 lengths -- in the Fountain of Youth Stakes was next, but he apparently had some sort of excuse that day for he rebounded brilliantly in the Florida Derby, missing by a short head to Dialed In after setting a challenging pace. From gate fourteen, the intriguing colt should be able to secure an excellent tracking spot in the early going. He has been training beautifully -- he breezed five furlongs in :58 4/5 on April 30th -- and will be tough to beat if he has the lead in the stretch.
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE - On March 20th, Midnight Interlude won his first race. Slightly less than three weeks later, he won the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). Suddenly, he was in the Derby picture. A son of War Chant, Midnight Interlude showed a lot of determination and talent in the Santa Anita Derby. Despite racing wide throughout, he charged home gamely in the stretch -- while dodging a drifting Comma to the Top -- to win the race by a head. It's obvious that the talent is there, but he has a lot of history to overcome. He did not race at age two -- something every Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 has done. If Midnight Interlude is to win the Derby, he will have to overcome this 128-year-old trend. But he may just have the raw talent to do it. He seems to have some decent tactical speed and should be able to establish a good position in the early going.
TOP CONTENDERS
DIALED IN - The Kentucky Derby burst into the Derby picture back in January, when he rallied furiously to win the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park by a length and a half -- in what was only his second start. Fast-forward to April 3rd, when the son of Mineshaft closed with a rush over a speed-favoring track to nail Shackleford in the shadow of the wire in the Florida Derby. These are the performances that have made Dialed In the deserving favorite for the 137th Run for the Roses. Like any deep closer -- with the exception, of course, of Zenyatta -- he will be at the mercy of the pace and will need a clean, traffic-free trip if he is to win. The colt has had a light training schedule leading up to this race, but trainer Nick Zito is confident that Dialed In is ready. I am too. Interestingly, the colt was beaten in an allowance race against older horses in between the Holy Bull in the Florida Derby -- falling a half-length short of stablemate Equestrio. Equestrio came back to finish a narrowly-beaten third in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) yesterday at huge odds. Intriguing. . .
NEHRO - The other son of Mineshaft in the Derby, Nehro lost his first two races in unimpressive performances. On the morning of February 21st, 2011, he was on nobody's Derby radar. He was just an ordinary three-year-old running in an ordinary maiden special weight race at Oaklawn Park. That is, until he burst past horses with a brilliant late run to win the race by 4 1/2 lengths. Suddenly, he had Derby potential. Entered in the Lousiana Derby, he closed well along a rail that may have been bad to finish second, beaten a neck. A similar late run once again fell short in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), missing by a neck to Archarcharch. But this colt has been improving with every start, is versatile, and packs quite the late kick. He'll be breaking from post nineteen -- which has never produced a Derby winner -- but this colt may be the one to change that. Expect to see him charging furiously in the final eighth of a mile.
ARCHARCHARCH - This colt has never gained much respect. As a juvenile, he won the Sugar Bowl Stakes at six furlong before running a distant fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes in his sophomore debut. Sent off at 14-1 in the Southwest Stakes, he burst clear on the outside to take the lead and held off his rivals to the wire, winning by a length. He then finished third in the Rebel Stakes behind The Factor -- despite being kicked in the starting gate by Alternation, who had flipped over in the adjacent stall. Sent off at 25-1 in the Arkansas Derby, the colt took over the lead in deep stretch and held off the late run of Nehro to win the prestigious event by a neck. Although he will be starting from the dreaded gate one -- remember Lookin' at Lucky? -- this colt has been training extremely well and is getting good at the right time. With a pedigree that should carry him the distance, a clean trip is all this son of Arch needs to wear the roses this afternoon.
MUCHO MACHO MAN - This son of Macho Uno showed promising form as a juvenile, finishing second to the highly regarded To Honor and Serve in both the Nashua (gr. II) and the Remsen (gr. II). As a three-year-old, this large colt has made three starts. In his 2011 debut, he finished fourth in the Holy Bull Stakes after pressing a fast pace while four-wide. He rebounded sharply in the Risen Star Stakes, striding away from the field to win by a length and a half. Sent off as the 3-2 favorite in the Louisiana Derby, he lost a shoe at the start of the race but still ran well enough to finish third, beaten just three-quarters of a length. Since then, he has been training brilliantly and appears ready to run the race of his life. From gate thirteen, I expect him to settle into fourth or fifth place in the early going and finish strongly in the homestretch.
There you have it -- my thoughts on the nineteen Derby starters. Now all that remains is to sort these thoughts into some form of selections.
Last year, I made several different kinds of selections. One which I though was interesting was the "Random Picks", where I simply draw names from a hat to see what happened. I shall do that again this year.
Thus the "Random Picks" are:
1 Watch Me Go
2 Shackleford
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Midnight Interlude
5 Decisive Moment
6 Santiva
7 Animal Kingdom
8 Stay Thirsty
9 Dialed In
10 Nehro
11 Master of Hounds
12 Pants On Fire
13 Derby Kitten
14 Mucho Macho Man
15 Soldat
16 Archarcharch
17 Brilliant Speed
18 Comma to the Top
19 Twinspired
Fascinating indeed. As usual, the hat is attempting to hit some sort of incredible superfecta. . . :)
Another interesting set of selections I made last year were the "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" picks, which as the name implies, puts the field in order based on their last Beyer speed figure.
This list looks like this:
1 Archarcharch (Dead-heat with Nehro)
2 Nehro (Dead-heat with Archarcharch)
3 Midnight Interlude (Dead-heat with Comma to the Top)
4 Comma to the Top (Dead-heat with Midnight Interlude)
5 Pants On Fire (Dead-heat with Animal Kingdom)
6 Animal Kingdom (Dead-heat with Pants On Fire)
7 Brilliant Speed (Dead-heat with Dialed In, Twinspired, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
8 Dialed In (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Twinspired, Mucho Macco Man, and Shackleford)
9 Twinspired (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
10 Mucho Macho Man (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Shackleford)
11 Shackleford (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Mucho Macho Man)
12 Derby Kitten
13 Twice the Appeal (Dead-heat with Decisive Moment)
14 Decisive Moment (Dead-heat with Twice the Appeal)
15 Santiva
16 Master of Hounds
17 Soldat
18 Stay Thirsty (Dead-heat with Watch Me Go)
19 Watch Me Go (Dead-heat with Stay Thirsty)
As usual, when you go by "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race", you end up with a lot of dead-heats. I doubt that there will be even one dead-heat, let alone a five-horse dead-heat. . . :)
I suppose now that it's time for my real selections. I've gone back and forth. . . and back and forth. . . and then back and forth some more. . . and then I went back and forth some. . . and then back and forth. . . then back and forth some more. . .
Finally, I came up with these:
1 Dialed In
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Decisive Moment
8 Animal Kingdom
9 Archarcharch
9 Soldat
10 Derby Kitten
11 Santiva
12 Stay Thirsty
13 Pants On Fire
14 Brilliant Speed
15 Comma to the Top
17 Master of Hounds
18 Twinspired
19 Watch Me Go
To be perfectly honest, I could have gone anywhere with these picks. I'm worried that Master of Hounds -- shipping in just a few days before the race and having never raced on dirt -- will fail to fire his best shot. And although Soldat should relish sloppy conditions if this arise, I'm not completely sure that he will get a good trip. The same goes for Archarcharch, a colt that I really think will have every chance at winning if he doesn't get bumped hard in the first furlong -- which is a real possibility in a race like this.
Now here are J.R.'s picks:
1 Nehro
2 Brilliant Speed
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Dialed In
5 Decisive Moment
6 Master of Hounds
7 Soldat
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Stay Thirsty
10 Animal Kingdom
11 Archarcharch
12 Shackleford
13 Twinspired
14 Twice the Appeal
15 Pants On Fire
16 Derby Kitten
17 Watch Me Go
18 Santiva
19 Comma to the Top
He's liked Nehro since the colt finished second in the Louisiana Derby, and the Arkansas Derby only solidified the colt as his top selection. He does not believe that breaking from gate nineteen will hurt the colt's chances, and is very confident that he will get up for victory this time. He also believes that Brilliant Speed is going to surprise a lot of people by taking to the dirt and running extremely well. As for Dialed In, he believes that the colt just won't get there in time.
And so that's it. The Derby is finally here. It's just a few hours away. I shall be live updating throughout the day, posting the results of the major undercard races at they are run. Now go out and enjoy the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby!
-Keelerman
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)