KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS AND PICKS

The last five months have all led to one day.

The last five months have all led to one racetrack.

The last five months have all led to the Kentucky Derby.

It can be hard to believe, but the 137th running of the grade I Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands has finally arrived. Already, the complexion of the race has seriously changed. Uncle Mo, the champion two-year-old male of last year and one of the favorites for the Run for the Roses, was scratched this morning. His jockey, John Velazquez, will instead ride Animal Kingdom, whose own rider was injured in a recent spill.

As I did on my Kentucky Oaks analysis, I will be dividing up all of the Derby contenders into three different categories – Unlikely Contenders, Contenders, and Top Contenders – and writing up a short paragraph summarizing my thoughts about each starter.

Let’s begin handicapping:

UNLIKELY CONTENDERS

WATCH ME GO - This son of West Acre is the longshot in the field at 50-1. Winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) in a 44-1 upset, the colt finished a distant sixth as the favorite in the Illinois Derby, his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. Seeing that he has drawn gate twenty and will need a perfectly fast track to fire his best shot, I doubt that the circumstances necessary for him to win will arise.

TWINSPIRED - Although he ran a strong race in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) to finish second beaten a nose, his one performance on dirt yielded an eighth place finish in the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park. His best performances have come on synthetic tracks, so all the son of Harlan's Holiday seems to have the pedigree to win at a mile and a quarter, I suspect that he won't care for the dirt in the Run for the Roses.
CONTENDERS

BRILLIANT SPEED - Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, this son of Dynaformer showed a brilliant late kick in that race which enabled him to close his final three eighths of a mile in less than :35 seconds. He tried dirt twice last year sprinting -- earning Beyer speed figures of 40 and 32 -- but has improved considerably since then. With a pedigree that screams distance, the only question that remains is whether or not he can transfer his synthetic form to dirt -- a big question indeed. But he had a very nice breeze over a sloppy Churchill Downs main track on May 2nd, so if the track is wet this afternoon he could be right in the mix.

COMMA TO THE TOP - Distance is the major question with this son of Bwana Charlie. His pedigree implies that a mile and a quarter is beyond his range, and his recent races seem to agree. He has failed to win in three starts this year, has tired in the stretch of all three, and has been known to drift considerably in the stretch. But his last performance -- a runner-up effort in the Santa Anita Derby -- was strong indeed. Beaten a head by Midnight Interlude, he closed his final eighth in a good :12 3/5. With a blinkers modification being attempted, and with Patrick Valenzuela in the saddle, this colt might just hang on for a piece of the purse if the pace is slower than expected.

DECISIVE MOMENT - This colt actually has a lot going for him. At two, his biggest claim to fame was a runner-up effort in the rich Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III). This year, the son of With Distinction has won the Jean Lafitte Stakes, finished fifth in the Risen Star with a mild injury, and second in the Spiral Stakes despite a tough trip. He has been at Churchill Downs for over a month now, getting a feel for the track, has been breezing nicely, and has drawn a good post position. Don't be surprised if this colt enters the Churchill Downs homestretch with the lead.

PANTS ON FIRE - The winner of the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) doesn't seem to be getting a whole lot of respect. A son of Jump Start, the colt failed while well bet in both the Count Fleet Stakes and LeComte Stakes (gr. III) earlier this year, then ran sixth as a longshot in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). But he trained nicely up to the Louisiana Derby and turned in the race of his life, gamely holding off Nehro and Mucho Macho Man to win by a neck with a final eighth in :12 3/5. A sharp half-mile breeze at Churchill Downs on May 1st signals that he is ready for this race, and he should be able to secure a good stalking trip under Rosie Napravnik. He should be right there as the field turns for home.

DERBY KITTEN - A son of Kitten's Joy, Derby Kitten entered the race for which he is named at the last possible moment. After upsetting the Lexington Stakes at 9-1, it looked like he wouldn't have the graded earnings to make the Derby field. But late defections allowed him to sneak into the field. In his last two races, he has shown the ability to sit five or six lengths off of a moderate pace and finish strongly -- something that could serve him well in the Run for the Roses. With a good trip, I expect to see him flying at the finish.

SOLDAT - We know he loves slop -- and if the track turns up sloppy this afternoon, he'll be right in the mix. The son of War Front showed great talent on turf last fall, winning the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III) and finishing second in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) and the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. II). This year, he proved himself to be a legitimate Derby contender by winning an allowance race in the slop with a Beyer of 103 and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) by two lengths. Although he finished a distant fifth in the Florida Derby -- the first time in his career that he didn't run 1-2 -- he had plenty of excuses and I wouldn't be surprised to see him rebound today. But he'll have to overcome gate seventeen.

ANIMAL KINGDOM - This lightly-raced son of Leroidesanimaux is bred to succeed on turf, yet here he is in the Kentucky Derby as one of the top contenders. Although this will be his first start on dirt, he has proven himself to be a very fine colt indeed. In his last start, he closed with a rush to win the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) by 2 3/4 lengths in a very sharp effort. He'll have to show the same form on dirt if he is to win the Derby, but I wouldn't count him out. He should be coming late in deep stretch.

SANTIVA - This is a colt that does not get much respect despite good credentials. As a juvenile, he ran second in the grade I Breeders' Futurity and won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill Downs by a half-length. This year, he ran a strong second to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star Stakes and finished a troubled ninth in the Blue Grass Stakes. But his Blue Grass effort wasn't as bad as it appears to be -- he was only beaten 6 1/2 lengths and never had racing room. All this son of Giant's Causeway needs to be in contention this afternoon is some racing luck.

MASTER OF HOUNDS - This colt is one of the big question marks in the Derby. A well-bred son of Kingmambo, he has raced in four different countries -- England, Ireland, the United States, and Dubai. As a juvenile, he finished third in the group I Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) here in the U.S. despite a rough trip. He has only raced once this year, finishing second beaten a nose by the fine filly Khawlah in the group II UAE Derby. He's never raced on turf, arrived at Churchill on Tuesday, and only has one prep race -- a lot to overcome. But don't count him out. This colt has the talent.

TWICE THE APPEAL - I imagine that the majority of people would have written off Twice the Appeal as a non-contender if it weren't for the fact that he will be ridden by Calvin Borel. Winner of the Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park in New Mexico, the son of Successful Appeal would have to turn in a career-best effort to win the Kentucky Derby -- but we all remember what Calvin Borel did with Mine That Bird. Seeing that he has drawn gate three, I imagine that Calvin Borel will have no trouble guiding Twice the Appeal to the rail, where the colt will likely receive a perfect trip and win if he is good enough. Can Borel win three Derbies in a row? Twice the Appeal just may enable him to do so.

STAY THIRSTY - He was the lesser half of the Mike Repole/Todd Pletcher Derby team. Now that Uncle Mo has scratched, he is the only half. A son of Bernardini, Stay Thirsty is the only runner for last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile to return for the Kentucky Derby -- an unusual occurrence indeed. He has made two starts this year, winning the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct and running a distant seventh in the Florida Derby. In the Gotham, he decisively defeated Toby's Corner, who went on to win the Wood Memorial. In the Florida Derby, he had plenty of excuses -- perhaps he did like wearing blinkers, or perhaps he didn't care for the extremely hot weather.

SHACKLEFORD - This son of Forestry may have among the best chances of any horse in this race. After breaking his maiden second time out, he won an allowance race over Caper's Touch by 2 1/4 lengths. A fifth place finish -- beaten over 23 lengths -- in the Fountain of Youth Stakes was next, but he apparently had some sort of excuse that day for he rebounded brilliantly in the Florida Derby, missing by a short head to Dialed In after setting a challenging pace. From gate fourteen, the intriguing colt should be able to secure an excellent tracking spot in the early going. He has been training beautifully -- he breezed five furlongs in :58 4/5 on April 30th -- and will be tough to beat if he has the lead in the stretch.

MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE - On March 20th, Midnight Interlude won his first race. Slightly less than three weeks later, he won the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). Suddenly, he was in the Derby picture. A son of War Chant, Midnight Interlude showed a lot of determination and talent in the Santa Anita Derby. Despite racing wide throughout, he charged home gamely in the stretch -- while dodging a drifting Comma to the Top -- to win the race by a head. It's obvious that the talent is there, but he has a lot of history to overcome. He did not race at age two -- something every Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 has done. If Midnight Interlude is to win the Derby, he will have to overcome this 128-year-old trend. But he may just have the raw talent to do it. He seems to have some decent tactical speed and should be able to establish a good position in the early going.

TOP CONTENDERS

DIALED IN - The Kentucky Derby burst into the Derby picture back in January, when he rallied furiously to win the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park by a length and a half -- in what was only his second start. Fast-forward to April 3rd, when the son of Mineshaft closed with a rush over a speed-favoring track to nail Shackleford in the shadow of the wire in the Florida Derby. These are the performances that have made Dialed In the deserving favorite for the 137th Run for the Roses. Like any deep closer -- with the exception, of course, of Zenyatta -- he will be at the mercy of the pace and will need a clean, traffic-free trip if he is to win. The colt has had a light training schedule leading up to this race, but trainer Nick Zito is confident that Dialed In is ready. I am too. Interestingly, the colt was beaten in an allowance race against older horses in between the Holy Bull in the Florida Derby -- falling a half-length short of stablemate Equestrio. Equestrio came back to finish a narrowly-beaten third in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) yesterday at huge odds. Intriguing. . .

NEHRO - The other son of Mineshaft in the Derby, Nehro lost his first two races in unimpressive performances. On the morning of February 21st, 2011, he was on nobody's Derby radar. He was just an ordinary three-year-old running in an ordinary maiden special weight race at Oaklawn Park. That is, until he burst past horses with a brilliant late run to win the race by 4 1/2 lengths. Suddenly, he had Derby potential. Entered in the Lousiana Derby, he closed well along a rail that may have been bad to finish second, beaten a neck. A similar late run once again fell short in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), missing by a neck to Archarcharch. But this colt has been improving with every start, is versatile, and packs quite the late kick. He'll be breaking from post nineteen -- which has never produced a Derby winner -- but this colt may be the one to change that. Expect to see him charging furiously in the final eighth of a mile.

ARCHARCHARCH - This colt has never gained much respect. As a juvenile, he won the Sugar Bowl Stakes at six furlong before running a distant fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes in his sophomore debut. Sent off at 14-1 in the Southwest Stakes, he burst clear on the outside to take the lead and held off his rivals to the wire, winning by a length. He then finished third in the Rebel Stakes behind The Factor -- despite being kicked in the starting gate by Alternation, who had flipped over in the adjacent stall. Sent off at 25-1 in the Arkansas Derby, the colt took over the lead in deep stretch and held off the late run of Nehro to win the prestigious event by a neck. Although he will be starting from the dreaded gate one -- remember Lookin' at Lucky? -- this colt has been training extremely well and is getting good at the right time. With a pedigree that should carry him the distance, a clean trip is all this son of Arch needs to wear the roses this afternoon.

MUCHO MACHO MAN - This son of Macho Uno showed promising form as a juvenile, finishing second to the highly regarded To Honor and Serve in both the Nashua (gr. II) and the Remsen (gr. II). As a three-year-old, this large colt has made three starts. In his 2011 debut, he finished fourth in the Holy Bull Stakes after pressing a fast pace while four-wide. He rebounded sharply in the Risen Star Stakes, striding away from the field to win by a length and a half. Sent off as the 3-2 favorite in the Louisiana Derby, he lost a shoe at the start of the race but still ran well enough to finish third, beaten just three-quarters of a length. Since then, he has been training brilliantly and appears ready to run the race of his life. From gate thirteen, I expect him to settle into fourth or fifth place in the early going and finish strongly in the homestretch.

There you have it -- my thoughts on the nineteen Derby starters. Now all that remains is to sort these thoughts into some form of selections.

Last year, I made several different kinds of selections. One which I though was interesting was the "Random Picks", where I simply draw names from a hat to see what happened. I shall do that again this year.

Thus the "Random Picks" are:

1 Watch Me Go
2 Shackleford
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Midnight Interlude
5 Decisive Moment
6 Santiva
7 Animal Kingdom
8 Stay Thirsty
9 Dialed In
10 Nehro
11 Master of Hounds
12 Pants On Fire
13 Derby Kitten
14 Mucho Macho Man
15 Soldat
16 Archarcharch
17 Brilliant Speed
18 Comma to the Top
19 Twinspired

Fascinating indeed. As usual, the hat is attempting to hit some sort of incredible superfecta. . . :)

Another interesting set of selections I made last year were the "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" picks, which as the name implies, puts the field in order based on their last Beyer speed figure.

This list looks like this:

1 Archarcharch (Dead-heat with Nehro)
2 Nehro (Dead-heat with Archarcharch)
3 Midnight Interlude (Dead-heat with Comma to the Top)
4 Comma to the Top (Dead-heat with Midnight Interlude)
5 Pants On Fire (Dead-heat with Animal Kingdom)
6 Animal Kingdom (Dead-heat with Pants On Fire)
7 Brilliant Speed (Dead-heat with Dialed In, Twinspired, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
8 Dialed In (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Twinspired, Mucho Macco Man, and Shackleford)
9 Twinspired (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
10 Mucho Macho Man (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Shackleford)
11 Shackleford (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Mucho Macho Man)
12 Derby Kitten
13 Twice the Appeal (Dead-heat with Decisive Moment)
14 Decisive Moment (Dead-heat with Twice the Appeal)
15 Santiva
16 Master of Hounds
17 Soldat
18 Stay Thirsty (Dead-heat with Watch Me Go)
19 Watch Me Go (Dead-heat with Stay Thirsty)

As usual, when you go by "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race", you end up with a lot of dead-heats. I doubt that there will be even one dead-heat, let alone a five-horse dead-heat. . . :)

I suppose now that it's time for my real selections. I've gone back and forth. . . and back and forth. . . and then back and forth some more. . . and then I went back and forth some. . . and then back and forth. . . then back and forth some more. . .

Finally, I came up with these:

1 Dialed In
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Decisive Moment
8 Animal Kingdom
9 Archarcharch
9 Soldat
10 Derby Kitten
11 Santiva
12 Stay Thirsty
13 Pants On Fire
14 Brilliant Speed
15 Comma to the Top
17 Master of Hounds
18 Twinspired
19 Watch Me Go

To be perfectly honest, I could have gone anywhere with these picks. I'm worried that Master of Hounds -- shipping in just a few days before the race and having never raced on dirt -- will fail to fire his best shot. And although Soldat should relish sloppy conditions if this arise, I'm not completely sure that he will get a good trip. The same goes for Archarcharch, a colt that I really think will have every chance at winning if he doesn't get bumped hard in the first furlong -- which is a real possibility in a race like this.

Now here are J.R.'s picks:

1 Nehro
2 Brilliant Speed
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Dialed In
5 Decisive Moment
6 Master of Hounds
7 Soldat
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Stay Thirsty
10 Animal Kingdom
11 Archarcharch
12 Shackleford
13 Twinspired
14 Twice the Appeal
15 Pants On Fire
16 Derby Kitten
17 Watch Me Go
18 Santiva
19 Comma to the Top

He's liked Nehro since the colt finished second in the Louisiana Derby, and the Arkansas Derby only solidified the colt as his top selection. He does not believe that breaking from gate nineteen will hurt the colt's chances, and is very confident that he will get up for victory this time. He also believes that Brilliant Speed is going to surprise a lot of people by taking to the dirt and running extremely well. As for Dialed In, he believes that the colt just won't get there in time.

And so that's it. The Derby is finally here. It's just a few hours away. I shall be live updating throughout the day, posting the results of the major undercard races at they are run. Now go out and enjoy the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby!

-Keelerman