Could Derby Kitten make the Kentucky Derby field?

The scratch of Anthony's Cross from Derby consideration due to a fever may not seem like a race-changing alteration -- after all, Anthony's Cross wasn't actually in the Derby, he was sitting 21st on the graded earnings list. But his removal from consideration has left the door open for Derby Kitten to sneak into the Kentucky Derby.

A few days ago, I wrote a post entitled "Who will make the earnings cut?," in which I discussed which horses could potentially make their way into the Derby field. In my post, I mentioned that despite the fact that it looked impossible, the winner of the Lexington Stakes -- whoever it would turn out to be -- just might secure enough earnings to make the Derby field. I noted that the winner's purse of $120,000 would put the winner in the 28th spot if he had earned no prior graded stakes earnings; higher if he had already picked up a few thousand somewhere. According to my analysis, it appeared that $120,000 -- with luck -- would be enough to make the earnings cut.

The winner of the Lexington was Derby Kitten, who picked up $120,000 for his victory in the grade III race. He had secured no previous graded stakes earnings, and thus moved into a tie for the 28th spot with Santa Anita Derby third-place finisher Mr. Commons.

However, the defections of The Factor, J P's Gusto, Jaycito, Silver Medallion, Anthony's Cross, Blue Laser, and Flashpoint have left them sitting in a tie for the 21st position -- just out of the Derby field.

I can hardly believe that enough horses have dropped out to put Derby Kitten in this position. After Silver Medallion was upset in the Lexington -- he was the only colt in the race who would move into the top twenty with a win -- I was resigned to the fact that for the second consecutive year, the Lexington Stakes would fail to produce a Derby starter.

Yet, here we are with Derby Kitten right outside of the top twenty. According to the fine print of the Kentucky Derby conditions, if two horses are tied in the 20th spot of graded earnings, then the horse with higher earnings in non-restricted stakes races would get in.

Derby Kitten has more stakes earnings than Mr. Commons. Whereas Mr. Common's only stakes earnings came from his run in the Santa Anita Derby, Derby Kitten had finished second in the Alligator Alley Stakes prior to winning the Lexington. Thus, if one more horse was to be taken out of Derby consideration, Derby Kitten would be able to sneak into the field.

But time is running out. Today is May 1st. Derby entries are drawn on May 4th. One more horse would have to drop out of Derby consideration in the next three days in order for Derby Kitten to get into the race.

It had been announced that Derby Kitten was being pointed to the Preakness, but that was before he was this close to making the Derby. To be honest, this is likely still his plan, for he hasn't breezed since the Lexington and it's getting late for Derby preparation. But the point is, an incredible amount of luck has put Derby Kitten into the Derby picture -- where the Lexington winner belongs.

-Keelerman