KENTUCKY OAKS UNDERCARD ANALYSIS

As promised, here are my thoughts and picks for the major Kentucky Oaks undercard races today at Churchill Downs. So far, five races have been run. Julien Leparoux is having a magnificent day, with three wins and a second from four mounts. Wow. . .

Race 6: La Troienne Stakes (gr. III)

Last year, this race marked the second start of the season for 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, who ended up being beaten a nose by the previously unheralded Unrivaled Belle. As we all know, Unrivaled Belle went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic at the end of the year.

Unrivaled Belle is back again this year to try and win this race for the second consecutive time. Once again, she will be facing an Eclipse champion, for Blind Luck is also in the race.

Here are the entries:

1 Quiet Giant
2 Miss Luan (Scratched)
3 Seeking the Title
4 All Due Respect
5 Stage Magic
6 Ravi’s Song
7 Blind Luck
8 Unrivaled Belle
9 Absinthe Minded

As we all know, Blind Luck won last year’s Kentucky Oaks en route to honors as Champion three-year-old filly of 2010. Although she is the slight morning line favorite over Unrivaled Belle, she is by no means a lock to win. She has finished second in five consecutive races since winning the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) last August, including a loss to Unrivaled Belle in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic. The long homestretch here at Churchill Downs should help her chances today, but she may have lost a step since last year.

Unrivaled Belle may also be vulnerable. She has only raced once since the Breeders’ Cup, finishing a distant third in the grade III Rampart Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It was obvious that she needed the race, and she should be sharper today, but we’ll have to wait and see.

Ravi’s Song looks like a filly who may be peaking at the right time. She’s 2-for-2 this year with strong victories in the Pelleteri Stakes and the New Orleans Ladies Stakes. If she gets a good trip, she may be good enough to pull off an upset.

Calvin Borel will be on the 30-1 shot Stage Magic. Just sayin’. . . :)

My picks are:

1 Ravi’s Song
2 Blind Luck
3 Unrivaled Belle

J.R.’s picks are:

1 Absinthe Minded
2 Unrivaled Belle
3 Blind Luck

Race 7: Edgewood Stakes

The 1 1/16th mile Edgewood Stakes on the turf has drawn a fascinating field of three-year-old fillies, some of which were at one time pointing for the Kentucky Oaks. Here are the entries:

1 Gaya (Scratched)
2 Diva Ash
3 Subpoena
4 Bonita Star
5 My Phil Temper
6 Smart Sting
7 Niji’s Grand Girl
8 Sassy’s Dream
9 My Redbyrd
10 Holidaysatthefarm (Scratched)

The morning line favorite is Smart Sting, who is undefeated in two starts. She broke her maiden on October 23rd last year going a mile on turf at Woodbine, then didn’t race again until March 16th. In a one-mile turf allowance race at Gulfstream Park, she rallied strongly to win by 1 ½ lengths in 1:34.95. She should be sharper in her second start of the year and looks like a legitimate favorite.

Bonita Star is the second choice. Although decisively beaten in her last start, the grade II Providencia Stakes at Santa Anita, she impressively won an allowance race two starts back and should find today’s competition easier.

Niji’s Grand Girl should not be tossed either. Last time out she rallied strongly to finish third in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) behind a pair of Kentucky Oaks in Daisy Devine and St. John’s River. Prior to that, she finished third in the Florida Oaks, a head in front of Kentucky Oaks starter Her Smile. With sufficient pace to chase, she could rally for victory.

The lightly-raced Diva Ash could also contend. After breaking her maiden first time out on February 23rd sprinting five furlongs, she stretched out to a mile and a sixteenth and finished a strong second behind Naples Bay.

My picks are:

1 Smart Sting
2 Niji’s Grand Girl
3 Diva Ash

J.R.’s picks are:

1 Niji’s Grand Girl
2 Bonita Star
3 Smart Sting

Race 8: Eight Belles Stakes (gr. III)

A field of ten fillies has been entered in the seven furlong Eight Belles Stakes, led by graded stakes winner Pomeroys Pistol and Arienza, a daughter of 2002 Horse of the Year Azeri.

Here are the entries:

1 Arienza
2 Home Sweet Aspen
3 Pomeroys Pistol
4 Holiday Flair
5 Mysterious Chimes
6 Formal Plan
7 Honey Chile
8 Victoria’s Wildcat
9 Angelic Zapata
10 Dr. Diamonds Prize

I see this race as a two-horse battle between Pomeroys Pistol and Arienza. The former had a great meet at Gulfstream, winning the Forward Gal Stakes (gr. II) over Dancinginherdreams and R Heat Lightning and placing in both the Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) and Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II). She should be able to work out a perfect trip from gate three.

Arienza has raw talent – no doubt about it. She broke her maiden going six furlongs at Oaklawn, then dominated in a one-mile allowance optional claiming event at the same track. Entered in the grade II Fantasy Stakes against Kentucky Oaks favorite Joyful Victory, she ran well to finish second but was no match for Joyful Victory, who won by 7 lengths. Arienza will likely have to be sent for the early lead to avoid getting trapped along the inside, but she may just have the talent to overcome her poor draw.

Holiday Flair has won two straight races going six furlongs on the dirt at Gulfstream Park and should be right in contention. Honey Chile ran second to the magnificent filly Turbulent Descent in the Beaumont Stakes (gr. III) last time out and could also be in the mix. Home Sweet Aspen broke her maiden last time out at Santa Anita and may be improving fast.

My picks are:

1 Pomeroys Pistol
2 Arienza
3 Home Sweet Aspen

J.R.’s picks are:

1 Home Sweet Aspen
2 Pomeroys Pistol
3 Holiday Flair

More selections to come!

-Keelerman