Tomorrow, the historic second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes (gr. I), will be run at Pimlico Race Course in Maryland. A full field of twelve has turned out for the 1 3/16th mile event, which is frequently more of a champion-defining race than the more heralded Kentucky Derby. The last ten winners of the Preakness, beginning with Point Given in 2001, have gone on to be voted Eclipse champion three-year-old.
As I did when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, I shall divide all of the starters into three categories, based on how well I like their chances. From there, I shall make my picks.
Here we go!
Unlikely Contenders
NORMAN ASBJORNSON – Finished fourth in the Wood Memorial without any real excuse. He seems to run his best races when he is on or near the lead, but doesn’t seem to have the speed to be up front in a race like this. Perhaps if he gets a perfect trip, he could rally to crack the superfecta, but I don’t really think it will happen. He is game, though.
KING CONGIE – Although he’s proven to be a very good horse on turf and synthetics – he was beaten a head in the grade I Blue Grass Stakes – his two performances on dirt yielded fourth- and eighth-place finishes by a combined total of 31 ½ lengths. He has also shown a tendency to drift outward in the stretch. A fine colt, but I doubt that he’ll take to the dirt.
ISN’T HE PERFECT – His three attempts at stakes company have yielded a pair of fifths and a sixth-place finish. He does seem to be improving, and has been pointed toward this race, but I have the suspicion that he just isn’t fast enough to contend in a race of this caliber. He does have experience, though – he’s made twelve starts so far, including six just this year.
FLASHPOINT – One of only three horses in this race to have earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure – the other two being Animal Kingdom and Sway Away – Flashpoint earned his big figure in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II). Although obviously extremely talented, his one try in a route race yielded a fourth-place finish behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby. If he can get to the lead and set a moderate pace, he could be around at the finish, but with his pedigree I can’t see him succeeding at a mile and three-sixteenths.
Contenders
ASTROLOGY – In seven starts, this fine colt has never finished worse than third. Winner of the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) last fall, Astrology had minor surgery during the winter to correct an entrapped epiglottis, which probably explains why he didn’t make his 2011 debut until March 27th, when he ran second in the rich Sunland Derby (gr. III). Last time out, he finished a late-running second to Adios Charlie in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II), a strong performance that become stronger when Adios Charlie came back to be beaten a head in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) last Saturday. Under Mike Smith, Astrology should be able to secure a decent, ground-saving trip from the rail and may very well be around at the finish.
CONCEALED IDENTITY - Concealed Identity may offer some value with morning line odds of 30-1. A Maryland-bred, all eight of his starts have come in Maryland, the last two being at Pimlico. Last time out, he defeated some fine horses in Ruler On Ice and J W Blue in the Federico Tesio Stakes. Trained by Edmund Gaudet -- who won the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes in 1971 -- I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see Concealed Identity finish in the superfecta. Interestingly, he only has one eye.
SHACKLEFORD - Shackleford turned in the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby, setting the pace and leading by a length passing the eighth pole before tiring late to finish fourth. He is unlikely to secure as easy a lead this time around, not with the likes of Flashpoint and Dance City also in the race. But he has continued to train well since the Derby and should be able to work out an excellent trip from gate five, perhaps stalking Flashpoint early on.
SWAY AWAY - As mentioned above, this colt has earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure, that being the 101 he recorded when finishing a close second to The Factor in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park. But two attempts in route races since then have proven unsuccessful, as he had finished sixth in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). Although he had excuses in both races, I feel that he is most effective as a late-running sprinter, despite his pedigree. But if a quick pace sets up in front of him, expect to see him charging home strongly in the homestretch.
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE - Winner of the Santa Anita Derby, Midnight Interlude showed absolutely nothing in the Kentucky Derby while finishing sixteenth. But a rider switch to Martin Garcia and a sharp workout signal that he may be ready to run an improved race. I would not be surprised if he is much closer to the lead tomorrow than usual -- perhaps even on the lead if he breaks well. Time will tell if he can stay the distance, but don't count him out entirely. After all, trainer Bob Baffert has won this race five times.
MR. COMMONS - Like Dance City, Mr. Commons has a lot to overcome. Trained by John Shirreffs of Zenyatta fame, the colt turned in two promising efforts under vastly different circumstances earlier this year -- breaking his maiden sprinting on turf and winning an allowance race going a mile on dirt. Last time out, he finished a decent third in the Santa Anita Derby behind Midnight Interlude. He doesn't have to improve a whole lot to be a contender here, but he has drawn gate fourteen. Seeing that his running style is to sit within a length or two of the early lead, I can't see him not getting caught wide on the first turn. Under the circumstances, I can't see him winning, although he has been training very well.
Top Contenders
DANCE CITY - This lightly raced colt has shown a great deal of talent and courage in his four starts. After finishing second to eventual Wood Memorial runner-up Arthur's Tale in a maiden special weight, Dance City broke his maiden by a length over a sloppy track at Gulfstream. He then defeated his highly-regarded stable mate Cal Nation in an allowance race by a desperate nose, then went on to finish a good third to Archarcharch and Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro in the Arkansas Derby after chasing a fast pace. Several questions still remain to be answered -- can his pedigree carry him a mile and three-sixteenths? Can he avoid getting sucked into an intense speed duel with Flashpoint and Shackleford? He'll have to run the race of his life to hit the board here, but he may just be capable of doing just that.
MUCHO MACHO MAN - Mucho Macho Man has been the epitome of consistency during his lengthy nine-race career. He has never finished worse than fourth, and has finished in the top three eight times. As a juvenile, he finished second twice to To Honor and Serve in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and the Remsen Stakes (gr. II). This year, he has won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and finished third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). In the Kentucky Derby. he had no real excuse, finishing a late-running third after a trouble-free trip. But in my opinion, he is still improving and will run his best race tomorrow. A June foal, he doesn't actually turn three-years-old until after the Belmont Stakes, and has taken some time to grow into his enormous 17-hand frame. But if I am correct, and he is only now reaching his best, he can win the Preakness tomorrow.
DIALED IN - The beaten Kentucky Derby favorite never had a chance in Louisville. Chasing one of the slowest paces in many, many years, his late run was severely compromised. But he was closing -- he closed his final half-mile in about :47 seconds, a brilliant time indeed. With a much faster pace likely tomorrow, I expect to see him flying down the homestretch with ground-devouring strides. Interestingly, he is racing for much more money than any of the other starters in this race. Because he won the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby earlier this year, he has a chance at winning the Preakness 5.5 bonus, the $5,500,000 bonus that is to be awarded to any horse that can win either the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, El Camino Real Derby and Santa Anita Derby, or the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby -- as well as the Preakness.
ANIMAL KINGDOM - Upset winner of the Kentucky Derby when making his first start on dirt, Animal Kingdom powered away from his rival in the Derby when winning by 2 3/4 lengths. It was the best race of his life, and a repeat of that performance would give him every chance at winning this race. But will he repeat the performance? That is one of the main questions that is being asked when handicapping the Preakness. He has been training well since his Derby victory, and I would not be surprised to see him run a great race, but I'm worried that he will catch a wide trip from gate eleven. He really got a near-perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby.
Now, before I post my picks, allow me to offer a disclaimer. No matter who I select to win the Preakness, I always cheer for the Kentucky Derby winner. No matter what. Even in 2009, when I was a huge fan of Rachel Alexandra and wanted her to become the first filly since 1924 to win the Preakness, I was still cheering for Mine That Bird to catch her in deep stretch, simply because I would love to see a Triple Crown winner. And if the Derby winner doesn't win the Preakness, then there's no shot, right?
So basically, what I'm saying is that although I'm not going to pick Animal Kingdom to win the Preakness, I will be cheering him on.
Okay. . . that said, let's get on to my selections!
First off, I shall make my traditional "Random Picks", where I randomly select names from a hat to see how good a handicapper my hat is.
My hat has selected:
1 Isn't He Perfect
2 Animal Kingdom
3 King Congie
4 Concealed Identity
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Dialed In
8 Mucho Macho Man
9 Sway Away
10 Dance City
11 Flashpoint
12 Astrology
13 Mr. Commons
14 Norman Asbjornson
As usual, the hat apparently knows something that I don't. :)
Here also are the usual "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" selections:
1 Animal Kingdom
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Shackleford
4 Dance City
5 Astrology (Dead-heat with King Congie, Sway Away, and Mr. Commons)
5 King Congie (Dead-heat with Astrology, Sway Away, and Mr. Commons)
5 Sway Away (Dead-heat with Astrology, King Congie, and Mr. Commons)
5 Mr. Commons (Dead-heat with Astrology, King Congie, and Sway Away)
9 Dialed In
10 Norman Asbjornson
11 Concealed Identity
12 Isn't He Perfect (Dead-heat with Flashpoint)
13 Flashpoint (Dead-heat with Isn't He Perfect)
14 Midnight Interlude
As usual, there are numerous dead-heats on this list -- a dead-heat occurring whenever two horses earned equal Beyer speed figures in their previous starts.
Okay, now it's time for my true picks. I have given this matter a lot of thought, and finally settled on these selections:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Dance City
4 Dialed In
5 Shackleford
6 Mr. Commons
7 Midnight Interlude
8 Astrology
9 Concealed Identity
10 King Congie
11 Sway Away
12 Norman Asbjornson
13 Flashpoint
14 Isn't He Perfect
I have this feeling that we have not seen the best of Mucho Macho Man, and that tomorrow is the day that he steps up and becomes the leader of the three-year-old division with a decisive victory in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Despite the fact that Dance City, Flashpoint, and Shackleford have all shown a great deal of speed in the past, I don't think that the pace will be all that fast. As a matter of fact, I don't see any of those three on the lead tomorrow. I believe that Martin Garcia will ask Midnight Interlude to go as soon as the gates open, and Midnight Interlude will find himself on the front end clear by a length through moderate fractions -- perhaps a :47 flat half-mile. From gate nine, Mucho Macho Man should be able to work out a good stalking position in fourth or fifth, not too far off of the early lead. From there, I think he will pounce on the far turn and hold off a charging Animal Kingdom for the victory.
Dialed In should be much closer in the stretch tomorrow than he was in the Derby, but since I don't see the early pace as being all that fast, I also can't see him getting past my top three. Dance City may indeed have distance limitations, but of the front runners I like him best. The Arkansas Derby was a very solid race -- with runner-up Nehro coming back to run second in the Derby and fifth-place finish Alternation winning the Peter Pan Stakes last Saturday -- and I feel that he may be very tough to pass in the homestretch.
As for Shackleford, despite the fact that he has been training well, I believe that his Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby performances were due more to perfect trips and pace scenarios more than anything else. Perhaps I'm wrong -- I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he took the lead and held off everyone to win this race -- but I believe that the pace won't set up for him today.
J.R., as usual, sees everything differently.
He sees Dance City, Shackleford, Flashpoint, and Midnight Interlude all getting involved him a tremendous speed duel for the early lead, where they run a :45-and-change half mile fraction. He predicts a complete and total pace meltdown, where the above-mentioned front runners tire badly in the homestretch and the horses sitting in mid-pack flatten out late.
He sees Astrology grinding past everyone to win.
Yes, J.R. is confident that Astrology -- making his third start off of a lengthy layoff -- will receive a perfect, ground-saving trip under Mike Smith that will enable the colt to run the race of his life and pull off a shocking upset. For second, he likes Dialed In. Norman Asbjornson and Concealed Identity are his "Longshots to Crack the Superfecta."
His complete selections are:
1 Astrology
2 Dialed In
3 Animal Kingdom
4 Norman Asbjorson
5 Concealed Identity
6 Mucho Macho Man
7 King Congie
8 Shackleford
9 Sway Away
10 Midnight Interlude
11 Dance City
12 Mr. Commons
13 Isn't He Perfect
14 Flashpoint
One final note before I conclude this post -- I am very fond of Mr. Commons, and would love to see John Shirreffs win a Preakness. Mr. Commons may actually be talented enough to win this race. But I'm afraid that from gate fourteen, I can't see the colt getting a good enough trip.
I shall post live updates here on my blog as the major undercard races at Pimlico are run tomorrow afternoon. In the meantime, enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
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