Saturday, May 14, 2011

PETER PANS STAKES ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS

It is currently twelve minutes until post time for the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park, a nine furlong prep race for the June 11th Belmont Stakes (gr. I). Eleven were entered, but the scratch of Isn't He Perfect has reduced the field to ten runners.

Currently, the betting favorite is Alternation at 3-1. The colt impressed in a pair of allowance events at Oaklawn earlier in this year, and was on the Derby Trail, but a fifth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby left him with insufficient earnings to make the Derby field. Uncle Brent, winner of the Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn, is 7-2. The morning line favorite Adios Charlie -- who turned in a huge performance to defeat Astrology in the Jerome Stakes two weeks ago -- is 9-2, which surprises me a bit because I thought he would be the heavy favorite. Newsdad, who finished a close fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes, is also 9-2. Joe Vann, winner of the Illinois Derby, is a surprising 8-1 right now.

The horse I really like is Monzon. He impressively won the Count Fleet Stakes on January 1st of this year, leaving eventual Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire and Wood Memorial runner-up Arthur's Tale behind him. Although he could only manage a distant fifth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes -- his lone start since then -- I feel that he will rebound to his Count Fleet form today and will be very much in the mix.

Prime Cut could also be a contender, based off of his good second to Derby Kitten in the Lexington Stakes.

My picks are:

1 Monzon
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation

J.R. sees the race differently. He is confident that Prime Cut is the best horse in the race and will prove it today.

His picks are:

1 Prime Cut
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation

I shall post the results in a moment!

-Keelerman

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