Tomorrow, thirteen fillies will parade to post for the 137th running of the historic Kentucky Oaks (gr. I), also known as the "Run for the Lillies". It is the fillies' equivilant of the Kentucky Derby; and is a race that holds considerable weight in the Eclipse award voting. The last four winners of the Kentucky Oaks have gone on to be voted Champion three-year-old filly, including Rachel Alexandra and Rags to Riches.
Rather than do my usual extremely-thorough analysis of every horse's last few races -- which can get very lengthy -- I shall instead write up shorter thoughts on each filly as I divide them up into three categories based on how well I like their chances: Unlikely-Contenders, Contenders, and Top Picks.
Here we go!
UNLIKELY-CONTENDERS
SUAVE VOIR FAIRE - The daughter of Suave is 50-1 on the morning line. Although she did run third in the Bourbonette Stakes (gr. III), she was still beaten twelve lengths there and doesn't quite appear to be up to this level of competition at this time. She could improve while wearing blinkers for the first time, and has been training well, but I can't really see her cracking the superfecta.
STREET STORM - Defeated a nice filly in Aide last time out when winning the $60,000 Mardi Gras Stakes at Fair Grounds, but that was two months ago. This daughter of Stormy Atlantic will be entering this race off of a lengthy layoff, and while she should be in contention on the far turn, I doubt that she can defeat the likes of Joyful Victory and Zazu at this time.
BOUQUET BOOTH - While obviously talented, this daughter of Flower Alley has finished fourth in her last two races and likely won't be much more than a pace factor. Although she did win the Silverbulletday Stakes earlier this year, I'm afraid that I don't think she can go a mile and an eighth against this group. But I'm fond of this filly, and I would love to see her get a piece of the purse.
LILACS AND LACE - Winner of the Ashland Stakes (gr. I) defeated a fine field which included Kathmanblu that day, but did so under perfect conditions. On a track that was favoring speed, this daughter of Flower Alley set a moderate pace and succeeded in holding off her rivals. This will be her first start on dirt since finishing seventh in her first start, and while she could very well run a winning race, I just can't see her winning under these conditions.
CONTENDERS
DAISY DEVINE - Winner of the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II), the daughter of Kafwain has won three of her last four races and was beaten by a neck in her lone loss. She had been training well at Churchill Downs, and has the ability to sit close to the pace and finish strongly. From gate nine, she should be able to work out a good stalking trip and pounce on the leaders turning for home. She'll have every chance in the homestretch.
SUMMER SOIREE - While her win in the Bourbonette Stakes (gr. III) was extremely impressive, the daughter of War Front had things pretty much her own way there, with a lonely lead and a slow pace. On the other hand, she has been unchallenged this year while going 2-for-2 and will likely have the lead at the top of the stretch. If the early pace is moderate, she will be tough to catch.
HER SMILE - This daughter of Include will be making her first start for new owner Bobby Flay and trainer Todd Pletcher. A winner of three of her four starts as a juvenile, she has not won a race this year but has turned in some promising performances. Last time out in the Comely Stakes, she traveled four wide into the homestretch and ended up finishing second behind a filly who received a perfect rail trip. At 20-1 on the morning line, she could offer excellent value in the exotics. I would not be surprised to see her finish in the top three.
HOLY HEAVENS - I find it hard to believe that this filly is 50-1 on the morning line. A daughter of Holy Bull, she won the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park earlier this year and ran a distant second to Joyful Victory in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III). Last time out, she was a late-running third -- albeit far behind Joyful Victory again -- in the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II). Under Kent Desormeaux, I expect her to run a sharp race.
PLUM PRETTY - This daughter of Medaglia d'Oro is definitely one of the more intriguing horses in the race. Trained by Bob Baffert, she won the Sunland Park Oaks by 25 lengths in an astonishing performance. However, she got a perfect trip in that race and was not facing much. She has also finished behind top contender Zazu twice this year in races where she didn't get an easy trip. While she could win this race under the right conditions, I doubt that those conditions will arise.
ST. JOHN'S RIVER - This lightly-raced daughter of Include seems to be improving at the right time. 30-1 on the morning line, she closed furiously in the Fair Grounds Oaks to just miss catching Daisy Devine by a half-length. She'll have to overcome starting from the far outside, but she has been training well and should relish the additional distance in the Kentucky Oaks.
TOP CONTENDERS
JOYFUL VICTORY - Joyful Victory showed promise as a juvenile, finishing third in the grade I Frizette Stakes and fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. But she has turned into a different filly this year, powering her way to breathtaking victories in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) and the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II). Trained by Larry Jones and ridden by Mike Smith, the daughter of Tapit will have to have a bit of luck to avoid getting trapped along the inside, but she has been training sharply and I believe that she is the best filly in the race.
KATHMANBLU - Must be considered solely off of her 8 1/2 length victory in the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs last year. Winner of the Sweetest Chant Stakes and Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) earlier this spring, she failed as the favorite in the grade I Ashland Stakes but was caught wide throughout while attempting to close on a speed-favoring track. With more favorable conditions looming tomorrow, I expect her to make a good account of herself under Julien Leparoux.
ZAZU - As a juvenile racing on synthetic surfaces, this daughter of Tapit appeared to be best as a late-running sprinter. But her last two starts have proven otherwise. In the one-mile Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita, she closed well to wear down heavily-favored Turbulent Descent in the stretch to win by 1 1/4 lengths. In the Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I) at a mile and a sixteenth, she closed well again but fell a neck short of Turbulent Descent. Although she hasn't raced in two months, she should be closing furiously if the pace is quick enough, and may prove good enough to win.
SELECTIONS
This running of the Kentucky Oaks will not be as easy to handicap as it was in 2009, when Rachel Alexandra was the overwhelming favorite in a field of six. But I'm confident that we have not seen the best of Joyful Victory and that she will give Larry Jones his second win in this race tomorrow afternoon.
My complete selections are:
1 Joyful Victory
2 Kathmanblu
3 Daisy Devine
4 Zazu
5 Holy Heavens
6 Plum Pretty
7 St. John's River
8 Her Smile
9 Summer Soiree
10 Lilacs and Lace
11 Bouquet Booth
12 Street Storm
13 Suave Voir Faire
I believe that Kathmanblu will rebound off of her Ashland defeat with a strong performance. Daisy Devine looks like an improving filly who can hit the board, but I'm not sure that Zazu will get sufficient early pace. It should be an intriguing race.
J.R.'s complete picks are different:
1 St. John's River
2 Her Smile
3 Joyful Victory
4 Plum Pretty
5 Kathmablu
6 Daisy Devine
7 Summer Soiree
8 Lilacs and Lace
9 Zazu
10 Holy Heavens
11 Bouquet Booth
12 Street Storm
13 Suave Voir Faire
He believes that Joyful Victory, Kathmanblu, and Zazu are all vulnerable favorites who will be beaten. He feels that this race has upset written all over it, and has thus come up with St. John's River and Her Smile as his picks. He believes that Joyful Victory's Beyer speed figures aren't high enough; that Kathmanblu is past her prime; and that Zazu is indeed best as a late-running sprinter and would need an unbelievably fast pace in order to succeed here.
This race, which is part of our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest, shall be worth more points than usual because it is the Kentucky Oaks. If our pick wins, we shall receive 30 points. If she runs second, 15 points. Third will garner 10 points, fourth 5 points, fifth 3 points, sixth 1 point, and seventh or worse none.
I shall post my thoughts and picks for the Kentucky Oaks undercard races sometime tomorrow. Until then, enjoy the races, everyone!
-Keelerman
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