Every year, the Kentucky Derby proves to be one of the hardest races in the country to handicap. Twenty lightly-raced three-year-olds going a mile and a quarter for the first time – and during the last couple years, in the slop – are not easy circumstances to handicap.
Every year, the variables are different. Last year, the big question was whether or not Lookin at Lucky could overcome drawing the rail. This year, the big question is whether or not Uncle Mo can rebound off of his sub-par performance in the Wood Memorial.
Because of this, it is impossible to develop any given “system” for handicapping the Run for the Roses. The wisest approach is to read everything you can, analyze some charts – and get out the dart board.
However, there are a few statistics which can help eliminate potential Derby starters from considerations. Before I describe them, here’s a list of all the potential Derby starters as of May 2nd:
Uncle Mo
Dialed In
Archarcharch
Comma to the Top
Toby’s Corner
Pants On Fire
Midnight Interlude
Soldat
Brilliant Speed
Master of Hounds
Nehro
Twice the Appeal
Mucho Macho Man
Decisive Moment
Animal Kingdom
Stay Thirsty
Santiva
Watch Me Go
Shackleford
Twinspired
Now feast your eyes on these stats:
• No horse has won the Kentucky Derby off of zero starts at age two since Apollo in 1882. If this stat holds true again, it would eliminate Midnight Interlude from consideration.
• No horse has won the Kentucky Derby after finishing fifth or worse in the final prep race since Iron Liege in 1957. This would eliminate Soldat, Stay Thirsty, Santiva, and Watch me Go from consideration.
• No Wood Memorial winner since Pleasant Colony in 1981 has returned to win the Kentucky Derby. This would eliminate Toby’s Corner.
• No Blue Grass winner has returned to win the Derby since Strike the Gold in 1991, and since the race has been run on Polytrack, no Blue Grass winner has even threatened in the Derby. This would eliminate Brilliant Speed.
• Only two Louisiana Derby winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby – Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924. That does not bode well for Pants On Fire’s chances in the Derby.
This leaves us with a much more reasonable list of twelve horses:
Uncle Mo
Dialed In
Archarcharch
Comma to the Top
Master of Hounds
Nehro
Twice the Appeal
Mucho Macho Man
Decisive Moment
Animal Kingdom
Shackleford
Twinspired
Then of course there is the more recent “two prep races” statistic. The last four Derby winners – Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird, and Super Saver – all raced in two preps in the spring before the Derby. If this trend holds true this year, than you can eliminate Twinspired, Shackleford, Decisive Moment, Dialed In, Archarcharch, Comma to the Top, Master of Hounds, Nehro, Twice the Appeal, and Mucho Macho Man.
This leaves us with only Uncle Mo and Animal Kingdom.
Period.
If all of these bizarre trends hold true yet again, then only Uncle Mo or Animal Kingdom can win the Kentucky Derby. Of course, it is very likely that one or more of these trends will be broken this year. No Derby winner had started from gate twenty since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 until Big Brown broke that rule in 2008. And the “two prep race” trend is brand new and really can’t be considered a “trend” unless it continues for several more years.
But the no-starts-at-two and worse-than-fourth trends have been proven time after time; year after year. If you are a daring Derby handicapper, you might want to just eliminate Midnight Interlude, Soldat, Stay Thirsty, Santiva, and Watch Me Go from consideration. But as mentioned before, there are no rules to handicapping the Derby – each one is different, and what works one year won’t work the next.
But if Uncle Mo or Animal Kingdom wins the Derby – then the trends continue.
-Keelerman
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