A Belmont Stakes-Winning Trend

Over the last several years, a trend has developed in the historic Belmont Stakes that may just crop up again this year.

Here it is: the last three winners of the Belmont (and four of the last five) had never won a stakes race prior to the Belmont.

In 2010, Drosselmeyer -- after competing well in a variety of stakes races during the spring -- wore down First Dude and held off Fly Down to secure his first stakes victory in the Belmont Stakes.

In 2009, Summer Bird blew past Mine That Bird and Dunkirk to add a stakes win to his resumé.

In 2008, Da' Tara went straight to the lead and powered home to a five-length victory in the Belmont Stakes -- his first stakes win.

And finally, in 2006, Jazil outstayed Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver to win the Belmont Stakes by a length and a quarter. Yes -- it was his first stakes victory.

The Belmont Stakes has become a race that is won by late-devoloping horses that can stay farther than their more heralded opponents.

Of the four above-mentioned Belmont winners, all were mild to extreme longshots -- but in many cases, the signs of talent were there. Drosselmeyer never showed the tactical speed and instant acceleration that wins shorter races, but time after time in the spring of 2010 he showed the ability to stay on to the finish -- he never tired. This long, slow grind enabled him to win the Belmont Stakes.

Summer Bird's potential was even easier to spot. He had closed furiously to finish third in the Arkansas Derby; then closed well to finish sixth in the Kentucky Derby after entering the homestretch extremely wide. With a patient ride in the Belmont, he was able to finish strongly and blow past Mine That Bird for victory.

Jazil also showed signs of being a nice horse prior to winning the Belmont. In the Kentucky Derby, he dropped back to last early on from post position one before rallying mildly to finish fourth. Sent off at 6-1 in the Belmont Stakes, his staying power enabled him to outgrind his opponents for a workmanlike victory.

Only Da' Tara gave no hints as to the performance he was about to give in the Belmont. He came into the Belmont off of an unimpressive second-place finish in the Barbaro Stakes at Pimlico. He then pulled off his shocking 38-1 upset in the Belmont.

So the recent trend for Belmont winners has been to enter the race with no prior stakes wins and pull an upset.

This year, there are a few major contenders entering the Belmont who will attempt to keep this trend alive. The top chance is Nehro, who has finished second in the Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, and Kentucky Derby -- but has never won a stakes race. The late-running colt will likely be one of the favorites in the Belmont.

Then there is Master of Hounds, the European colt who finished a closing fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Despite being group I placed -- and losing by just a nose in the UAE Derby -- he too has never won a stakes race. A victory in the Belmont would keep the new trend around for another year.

Finally, there is Prime Cut, a promising youngster who could prove to be at his very best traversing the sweeping turns at Belmont Park. After defeating the highly regarded Bind in an allowance race, he finished second in the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland and third in the one-turn Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont. He strike me as a true two-turn colt who should relish the mile and a half distance of the Belmont Stakes.

So there you have it -- a bizarre trend, and three horses who could keep it alive. Any thoughts?

-Keelerman