Today is one of the finest days for racing of the year, with the historica Met Mile being run at Belmont Park and six stakes races at Lone Star Park on the schedule. Here are my brief thoughts and selections for these and other races, as well as J.R.'s picks.
Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I)
This race is filled with quality runners, but no real standout. I would not be entirely surprised to see any of the eleven starters cross under the wire first.
The horse I like is Tizway, winner of the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) here last year. His best races have come at this track, so it's obvious that he loves the surface. He finished a strong third in the Charles Town Classic Stakes (gr. III) last time out while running nine furlongs around three turns -- a situation in which he is likely not his best. He returns to his favorite track and distance today, and I feel that he will be able to win despite drawing gate eleven.
The morning line favorite is Haynesfield, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) and Suburban Handicap (gr. II) last year. He loves Belmont Park, but failed to fire as the odds-on favorite last time out in the Westchester Handicap. Chances are he will rebound and run a better performance this time out, but I'm not entirely sure if he can defeat this field.
Tackleberry, who won three stakes races at Gulfstream Park this spring, will be racing on lasix for the first time after bleeding when fourth in the Charles Town Classic. If he can work out a good stalking trip, he should have every chance in the stretch.
Aikenite has won two straight grade II stakes races at seven furlongs, but I have the suspicion that a mile may be just a bit too far for him. Caixa Eletronica was dominating when winning the Westchester, and should be right in the mix this afternoon. Soaring Empire is talented, but must overcome breaking from the rail. Yawanna Twist is a consistent horse, but may just not be good enough to win. Ibboyee was a strong third in the Churchill Downs Stakes last time out, but was taking advantage of a bias and doesn't seem to care for the Belmont main track.
As for Rodman, he ran competitive speed figures back in late 2009, but then didn't race again for fourteen months. Returned to the races earlier this spring, he has made two starts, running second in an allowance race before easily winning the Irish Tower Stakes last time out. Making his third start off the layoff, I wouldn't be surprised if he finished in the top three.
My picks are:
1 Tizway
2 Caixa Eletronica
3 Haynesfield
4 Tackleberry
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Caixa Eletronica
2 Haynesfield
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Tizway
Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III)
Only five horses are scheduled to run in this year's edition of the Lone Star Park Handicap, but it's a quality field. The morning line favorite is Game On Dude, winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) earlier this spring. But he could only manage a second-place finish in the Charles Town Classic Stakes last time out, and at this mile and a sixteenth distance he may be vulnerable.
One of my favorite horses, Awesome Gem, is also in this race. An eight-year-old gelding, his victory in the the 2010 Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I) and third in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) rank among his greatest performances. He has made three starts this year, disappointing in the first two -- but his last race was very good indeed. He finished fourth in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs, beaten just a half-length after encountering serious traffic in the stretch. He finished second in the Lone Star Park Handicap last year, and I believe that he is capable of performing at least that well this year.
Thiskyhasnolimit won the local prep for this race, the Texas Mile Stakes (gr. III) over a nice horse in Gladding. A mile and a sixteenth is likely his best distance, so he should have every chance at winning this race if Game On Dude doesn't run his very best.
But I'm afraid that I have to pick Awesome Gem to win, even though he may be up against it with little pace to run at today.
My picks are:
1 Awesome Gem
2 Game On Dude
3 Thiskyhasnolimit
4 Flat Out
5 Lydia's Last Step
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Thiskyhasnolimit
2 Game On Dude
3 Flat Out
4 Awesome Gem
5 Lydia's Last Step
Lone Star Derby
A fascinating field of nine has turned out for the fifteenth running of the Lone Star Derby, which will be run on grass for the first time this year.
The slight morning line favorite is Uncle Sam, a colt trained by Bob Baffert who finished second in the Alydar Stakes last time out. He has earned the biggest Beyer speed figure in the race, but this will be his first start on turf.
I have gone back and forth trying to decide who to pick, and finally settled on Derby Kitten. The colt won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland two starts back before running thirteenth in the Kentucky Derby. He has run well in the past, and his sire was the Eclipse champion turf male of 2004, so I believe that he will relish the conditions of this race and win impressively.
Dreaminofthewin, who finished third in the Texas Mile Stakes against older horses last time out, is another colt that I feel could perform well. He has been running against some very good horses as of late, including Thiskyhasnolimit, Gladding, Alternation, and Archarcharch, and may be capable of winning this race if he takes to the turf.
My selections are:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Uncle Sam
3 Dreaminofthewin
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Awesome Bet
2 Derby Kitten
3 Uncle Sam
OTHER SELECTIONS
Cinemine Stakes
Keelerman: Grandacious
J.R.: Love Dair
Dallas Turf Cup Stakes
Keelerman: J J's Indy
J.R.: Expansion
Valid Expectations Stakes
Keelerman: Irish Gypsy
J.R.: Gleaming
Ouija Board Distaff Stakes (gr. III)
Keelerman: Wasted Tears
J.R.: Wasted Tears
-Keelerman
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