THE TWISTING TRAIL TO THE TRIPLE CROWN – Part II

Way back in February – practically ancient history in horse racing – I wrote a post entitled “The Twisting Trail to the Triple Crown”. In it, I discussed the numerous routes that three-year-olds can take to the Triple Crown, such as the Florida route, the Arkansas route, and the Florida/New York route.

If you’ll recall, I made up a “morning line odds” on which routes had the best chance at producing the Derby winner.

Here it is:

Florida/New York - 4/1
Florida - 6/1
Arkansas - 8/1
California - 10/1
Florida/Arkansas - 12/1
New York - 15/1
Florida/Kentucky - 15/1
Florida/Louisiana - 15/1
California/Arkansas - 20/1
Louisiana - 20/1
Louisiana/Florida - 20/1
California/Kentucky - 25/1
California/New Mexico - 30-1
New Mexico - 40/1
Louisiana/Kentucky - 50/1

Now let us take a look at the twenty Derby contenders as of May 3rd and see where they came from:

Uncle Mo – Florida/New York
Dialed In – Florida
Archarcharch – Arkansas
Comma to the Top – California
Pants On Fire – New York/Louisiana
Midnight Interlude – California
Soldat – Florida
Brilliant Speed – Florida/Kentucky
Master of Hounds – Dubai
Nehro – Louisiana/Arkansas
Twice the Appeal – California/Arizona/New Mexico
Mucho Macho Man – Florida/Louisiana
Decisive Moment – Louisiana/Kentucky
Animal Kingdom – Florida/Kentucky
Stay Thirsty – New York/Florida
Santiva – Louisiana/Kentucky
Watch Me Go – Florida/Illinois
Shackleford – Florida
Twinspired – Florida/Kentucky
Derby Kitten – Florida/Kentucky

Thus, my morning line favorite path – the Florida/New York route – has produced only one Derby contender. But that contender is Uncle Mo.

Here’s a breakdown of all the paths which I assigned odds and the horses that have followed that route to Louisville:

Florida/New York - 4/1
Uncle Mo
Florida - 6/1
Dialed In
Shackleford
Soldat
Arkansas - 8/1
Archarcharch
California - 10/1
Midnight Interlude
Comma to the Top
Florida/Arkansas - 12/1
None
New York - 15/1
None
Florida/Kentucky - 15/1
Brilliant Speed
Animal Kingdom
Twinspired
Derby Kitten
Florida/Louisiana - 15/1
Mucho Macho Man
California/Arkansas - 20/1
None
Louisiana - 20/1
None
Louisiana/Florida - 20/1
None
California/Kentucky - 25/1
None
California/New Mexico - 30-1
None
New Mexico - 40/1
None
Louisiana/Kentucky - 50/1
Decisive Moment
Santiva

Other routes for which I did not assign odds were:

New York/Louisiana
Pants On Fire
Dubai
Master of Hounds
Louisiana/Arkansas
Nehro
California/Arizona/New Mexico
Twice the Appeal
New York/Florida
Stay Thirsty
Florida/Illinois
Watch Me Go

At the time that I wrote the post, I guessed that the Florida/New York route would produce the Derby winner and thus made it the morning line favorite at 4-1.

On raw numbers alone, the Florida/Kentucky route should produce the Derby winner, simply because it has turned out more starters than any other state. Florida has an excellent shot as well, with Derby favorite Dialed In, as well as Shackleford and Soldat, prepping only in the Sunshine State this year.

The Florida Arkansas route, which produced Derby winner Super Saver last year, failed to turn out any Derby contenders this time around, which surprises me a bit.

So here’s an updated set of morning line odds for the routes that did produce starters this year:

Florida - 3/1
Florida/New York - 5/1
Louisiana/Arkansas – 6/1
Arkansas - 8/1
Florida/Louisiana - 8/1
Florida/Kentucky - 12/1
California - 12/1
New York/Louisiana – 15-1
California/Arizona/New Mexico – 20/1
Louisiana/Kentucky - 30/1
Dubai – 30/1
New York/Florida – 30/1
Florida/Illinois – 50/1

What odds would you assign?

-Keelerman