KENTUCKY OAKS UNDERCARD ANALYSIS -- Part II

As promised, here is the second part of my Kentucky Oaks undercard analysis:

Race 9: Alysheba Stakes (gr. III)

As usual, the Alysheba Stakes has drawn a fascinating field of older males, including Awesome Gem, First Dude, Giant Oak, Caracortado, Mission Impazible, Wise Dan, and Regal Ransom. The complete entries are:

1 Wise Dan
2 Caracortado
3 Icabad Crane (Scratched)
4 Equestrio
5 Giant Oak
6 Mission Impazible
7 First Dude
8 Jardim
9 Awesome Gem
10 Demarcation
11 Regal Ransom

Although I’m very fond of Awesome Gem and will be cheering him on, I doubt that he’s up to winning a race like this at this time. His best races have come at longer distances, and he may not be at his very sharpest today.

First Dude -- who placed in the Preakness Stake, Belmont Stakes, Haskell Invitational, and Travers Stakes last year – will likely be among the favorites, but despite his impressive credentials he has yet to win a stakes race of any kind. Although he won an allowance race one month ago at Santa Anita in impressive fashion, he doesn’t seem to be quite as good as he was last year. With quite a bit of early pace here, I doubt that he’ll get any kind of easy lead. Under the circumstances, I can’t pick him to win.

I finally settled on Giant Oak. The five-year-old horse has been a fine stakes competitor since 2008, but is having his best season ever this year. He won the Donn Handicap (gr. I) in February at Gulfstream Park, and most recently ran a strong third to Mission Impazible in the New Orleans Handicap, where he closed his final eighth in about twelve seconds. With a rapid pace a possibility today, I see him grinding his way through the long Churchill Downs homestretch to secure a narrow victory.

Mission Impazible is a logical contender, but would likely need an easy lead to run his best race. With Regal Ransom, First Dude, and even Wise Dan likely to be up on the lead as well, I doubt that he’ll get the slow pace he needs.

Equestrio is an intriguing contender at 20-1 on the morning line. Last time out, he defeated Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In in an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park. He drifted badly in that race, and is taking a step up in class, but don’t count him out of hitting the board.

Demarcation ran a disappointing seventh in the New Orleans Handicap last time out, but before that impressively won the Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III) over Mission Impazible. A quick pace could enable him to hit the board at impressive odds.

My picks:

1 Giant Oak
2 Mission Impazible
3 Awesome Gem

J.R.’s picks:

1 Regal Ransom
2 Giant Oak
3 Mission Impazible

Race 10: American Turf Stakes (gr. II)

This mile and a sixteenth turf event for three-year-old has drawn a very large field, led by Banned, Great Mills, and Air Support.

The entries are:

1 Close Ally
2 Great Mills
3 Banned
4 Memen
5 Kippers n’ Eggs
6 Smarter Than Ever (Scratched)
7 Man of Strife
8 Jakesam
9 Cozy Kitten
10 Swagger Jack
11 Tag V Eye (Scratched)
12 Private Prize
13 Air Support
14 Surrey Star

Banned is the morning line favorite, based largely on his fine juvenile form. At two, he broke his maiden second time out and impressively won an allowance race before finishing a good fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). Interestingly, he finished a neck behind Kentucky Derby contender Master of Hounds in that race.

Given a break after that, he made his 2011 debut on April 17th, finishing a very close third in an allowance race at Keeneland. He’ll have to step up to win today’s race, but he very well may be good enough.

One horse I really like is Air Support, who rallied furiously to win the Transylvania Stakes (gr. III) last month over Great Mills and Adirondack Summer in his first start off of a five month layoff. At two, he decisively defeated Soldat in the grade III Pilgrim Stakes. If the early pace is quick, I expect him to be flying late.

Surrey Star won the nine furlong La Puente Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita Park in an impressive effort, and he too would benefit from a quick pace.

Great Mills is another logical contender. He didn’t do much at two, but has turned into a top-class turf three-year-old this year. He won the Grindstone Stakes at Fair Grounds over a nice colt in Willcox Inn and was most recently second, beaten a nose, in the Transylvania Stakes. If he can get away with an easy lead, he could prove very difficult to catch.

Don’t count out Private Prize either. When he gets to the lead, he can get very game and stay on well in the stretch.

My picks:

1 Air Support
2 Banned
3 Surrey Star

J.R.’s picks:

1 Banned
2 Great Mills
3 Private Prize

And so that concludes our analysis of the day’s great stakes races! Now go out and enjoy these a fabulous day of racing!

-Keelerman