Before we all get into handicapping the Preakness Stakes – for which the post positions were drawn yesterday – let us first briefly recap the racing action from the last two Saturdays.
Kentucky Derby
A few days ago, I wrote up a recap of the Kentucky Derby (link to post), but I did not compare to see how my picks stacked up against the final results. So here are the variety of selections which J.R. and I made and the complete results of the race:
OFFICIAL ORDER OF FINISH
1 Animal Kingdom
2 Nehro
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Shackleford
5 Master of Hounds
6 Santiva
7 Brilliant Speed
8 Dialed In
9 Pants On Fire
10 Twice the Appeal
11 Soldat
12 Stay Thirsty
13 Derby Kitten
14 Decisive Moment
15 Archarcharch
16 Midnight Interlude
17 Twinspired
18 Watch Me Go
19 Comma to the Top
Now let us compare it to my selections:
1 Dialed In
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Decisive Moment
8 Animal Kingdom
9 Archarcharch
10 Soldat
11 Derby Kitten
12 Santiva
13 Stay Thirsty
14 Pants On Fire
15 Brilliant Speed
16 Comma to the Top
17 Master of Hounds
18 Twinspired
19 Watch Me Go
In an interesting scenario, my pick ran eighth, while I picked the winner to finish eighth. I actually failed to place any horse in the correct position, although I was certainly close on Mucho Macho Man, Nehro, and Shackleford.
J.R. did a bit better than I did. His picks were:
1 Nehro
2 Brilliant Speed
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Dialed In
5 Decisive Moment
6 Master of Hounds
7 Soldat
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Stay Thirsty
10 Animal Kingdom
11 Archarcharch
12 Shackleford
13 Twinspired
14 Twice the Appeal
15 Pants On Fire
16 Derby Kitten
17 Watch Me Go
18 Santiva
19 Comma to the Top
He believed strongly that Nehro would perform admirably in the Derby – and he did, finishing second. He also correctly picked Mucho Macho Man for third, and had the right idea on Master of Hounds. Because his top pick ran second, he picked up twenty-five points in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest, which enabled him to move considerably closer to me in the standings.
Another list of selections which I compiled was the “Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race” picks, which – as their name implies – made it’s selections based off of the Beyer speed figure that each starter earned in their final prep race.
It’s selections were:
1 Archarcharch (Dead-heat with Nehro)
1 Nehro (Dead-heat with Archarcharch)
3 Midnight Interlude (Dead-heat with Comma to the Top)
3 Comma to the Top (Dead-heat with Midnight Interlude)
5 Pants On Fire (Dead-heat with Animal Kingdom)
5 Animal Kingdom (Dead-heat with Pants On Fire)
7 Brilliant Speed (Dead-heat with Dialed In, Twinspired, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
7 Dialed In (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Twinspired, Mucho Macco Man, and Shackleford)
7 Twinspired (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford)
7 Mucho Macho Man (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Shackleford)
7 Shackleford (Dead-heat with Brilliant Speed, Dialed In, Twinspired, and Mucho Macho Man)
12 Derby Kitten
13 Twice the Appeal (Dead-heat with Decisive Moment)
13 Decisive Moment (Dead-heat with Twice the Appeal)
15 Santiva
16 Master of Hounds
17 Soldat
18 Stay Thirsty (Dead-heat with Watch Me Go)
18 Watch Me Go (Dead-heat with Stay Thirsty)
It predicted that there would be a five-horse dead-heat for seventh place – as well as numerous other dead-heats. But it correctly selected Nehro to perform well, and it also respected Animal Kingdom. It was fairly close on Dialed In, too.
Finally, there were my “Random Selections”. They were:
1 Watch Me Go
2 Shackleford
3 Twice the Appeal
4 Midnight Interlude
5 Decisive Moment
6 Santiva
7 Animal Kingdom
8 Stay Thirsty
9 Dialed In
10 Nehro
11 Master of Hounds
12 Pants On Fire
13 Derby Kitten
14 Mucho Macho Man
15 Soldat
16 Archarcharch
17 Brilliant Speed
18 Comma to the Top
19 Twinspired
Well – it put Santiva in the right place. . . :)
Kentucky Oaks
Plum Pretty proved on the Friday before the Derby that her twenty-five length victory in the Sunland Parks Oaks was not due to an easy trip. Ridden by Martin Garcia, the filly opened up a decisive lead in the Churchill Downs homestretch and held off longshot St. John’s River to win the 137th running of the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks by a neck.
Trained by Bob Baffert, the filly – who was sent off as the fourth choice at 6-1 – secured good position early, tracking the pace set by Summer Soiree in the two-path. The fractions were challenging, with Summer Soiree carving out a :23.65 opening quarter and a :46.99 half-mile while leading by 3 ½ lengths. But after running three-quarters in 1:11.25, she was through. Plum Pretty drew up alongside and powered into the lead as the field entered the homestretch. She passed the eighth pole leading by three lengths, and appeared to be on her way to an easy victory. But St. John’s River was rallying furiously along the rail under Rosie Napravnik, and at 16-1 looked as though she might pull a major upset. But Plum Pretty held on gamely in the final yards, scoring the first grade I win of her career in 1:49.50.
Zazu rallied late for third, while favored Joyful Victory finished fourth without any apparent excuse.
The complete order of finish was:
1 Plum Pretty
2 St. John’s River
3 Zazu
4 Joyful Victory
5 Bouquet Booth
6 Kathmanblu
7 Daisy Devine
8 Street Storm
9 Suave Voir Faire
10 Summer Soiree
11 Her Smile
12 Lilacs and Lace
13 Holy Heavens
My selections were:
1 Joyful Victory
2 Kathmanblu
3 Daisy Devine
4 Zazu
5 Holy Heavens
6 Plum Pretty
7 St. John's River
8 Her Smile
9 Summer Soiree
10 Lilacs and Lace
11 Bouquet Booth
12 Street Storm
13 Suave Voir Faire
J.R.’s picked were:
1 St. John's River
2 Her Smile
3 Joyful Victory
4 Plum Pretty
5 Kathmablu
6 Daisy Devine
7 Summer Soiree
8 Lilacs and Lace
9 Zazu
10 Holy Heavens
11 Bouquet Booth
12 Street Storm
13 Suave Voir Faire
J.R. did considerably better than I, as his 16-1 shot nearly got up to win. He also liked Plum Pretty better than I did. All in all, it was an excellent race, from which I expect numerous fine stakes winners to emerge.
Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II)
This nine furlong prep race for the June 11th Belmont Stakes drew a fascinating field that included Jerome Stakes winner Adios Charlie, Illinois Derby winner Joe Vann, the solid allowance runner Alternation, and Count Fleet Stakes winner Monzon. The favorite, at 3-1, was Alternation.
Held at Belmont Park – where nine furlong races are around one turn – the Peter Pan Stakes turned in very reasonable results. Longshot Bold Deed broke quickest of all, going to the lead while setting a quick pace of :23.78 and :47.14. Adios Charlie and Joe Vann were just off the pace in second and third, while Prime Cut was sitting fourth along the inside.
But Prime Cut was not content to sit back in fourth, and between the seventh-eighths and five-eighth poles made a bold run along the inside to grab second position, 2 ½ lengths behind Bold Deed. Adios Charlie and Joe Vann were still patiently tracking the pace, while Uncle Brent had moved into contention on the rail at odds of 3.90-1.
Alternation? He was rating in seventh, six lengths off the lead.
Around the far turn, Bold Deed was beginning to show signs of stopping. Adios Charlie and Joe Vann were moving up on the outside, while Prime Cut was back to fourth and searching for racing room. Uncle Brent was beginning to tire, and Alternation still had several lengths to make up.
All of a sudden, Adios Charlie burst clear. Under Rajiv Maragh, he exploded past Bold Deed and left Joe Vann in his dust as the field turned for home. He powered down the homestretch, drawing well clear of the field. Passing the eighth pole, he led by two lengths and was home-free.
Or was he?
All of a sudden, Alternation appeared on the scene. With tremendous strides he cut into Adios Charlie’s lead. It appeared as though his late run would fall short – but it didn’t. In the shadow of the wire, Alternation stuck his nose in front of Adios Charlie to win the Peter Pan Stakes in 1:49.53.
Adios Charlie was game to the finish, ending up 4 ½ lengths clear of the third-place finisher, Prime Cut. Joe Vann finished fourth after racing wide throughout.
The complete order of finish was:
1 Alternation
2 Adios Charlie
3 Prime Cut
4 Joe Vann
5 Bold Deed
6 Monzon
7 Beer Meister
8 Newsdad
9 Uncle Brent
10 Tap Attack
My selections were:
1 Monzon
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation
J.R.’s picks were:
1 Prime Cut
2 Adios Charlie
3 Alternation
The three points earned by J.R. for Prime Cut’s third-place finish enabled him to draw within a point of me in our Handicapping Contest, with just four weekends of racing to go. The Preakness Stakes and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes are this week’s contest races. We shall post our picks shortly.
Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
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