HANDICAPPING THE DERBY BY RAW STATISTICS – Part II

Yesterday, I wrote a post entitled “Handicapping the Derby by Raw Statistics.” In it, I pointed out several trends that have shown up over the last 20 to 120 years of Kentucky Derby history; trends such as the Apollo Curse and the finishing-worse-than-fourth-in-final prep curse.

However, there was one trend that I forgot to mention – and that is this: no horse has won the Derby off of a six-week layoff since Needles in 1956. It is one of the longest trends in Derby history, and one which has refused to be broken year after year. Ice Box nearly did it last year – finishing second in the Derby off of a six week layoff – but second wasn’t good enough.

This trend, should it hold true yet again, would eliminate several Derby starters from consideration: Pants On Fire, Mucho Macho Man, Animal Kingdom, Decisive Moment, and Master of Hounds, all of whom last started on Saturday, March 26th, 2011 – six weeks prior to this year’s Derby.

This drastically changes the list of “trend-following contenders” which I listed on my previous post. The list is thus shortened from this:

Uncle Mo
Dialed In
Archarcharch
Comma to the Top
Master of Hounds
Nehro
Twice the Appeal
Mucho Macho Man
Decisive Moment
Animal Kingdom
Shackleford
Twinspired

To this:

Uncle Mo
Dialed In
Archarcharch
Comma to the Top
Nehro
Twice the Appeal
Shackleford
Twinspired

And when further shortened by the recent trend “Two Starts in Spring Prior to Derby”, it leaves us with only Uncle Mo.

Just Uncle Mo.

If all of the trends, both new and old, hold true in the 2011 Kentucky Derby, then only Uncle Mo can win.

Could handicapping the Derby be that simple?

-Keelerman