WHO WILL MAKE THE EARNINGS CUT?

Two weeks left until the Kentucky Derby – and not a lot of time to secure graded earnings.

The field for the 2011 Kentucky Derby is pretty much set now. Only three graded stakes races for three-year-olds remain prior to the Run for the Roses, the three races being the Lexington Stakes (gr. III), Jerome Handicap (gr. II), and the Derby Trial (gr. III). Of the trio, only the Lexington is expected to turn out a Derby contender.

So who will make the earnings cut and who won’t?

The Kentucky Derby field is limited to twenty starters. If more than twenty enter, than the horses with the highest earnings in graded stakes races get into the race. Big, rich graded stakes races – like the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) or the Florida Derby (gr. I) – all but guarantee their winners a berth in the Derby thanks to their rich purses.

Here’s an up-to-date list of the top Derby contenders by graded stakes earnings:

http://www.drf.com/news/2011-kentucky-derby-contenders-ranked-graded-earnings

If all of the top twenty horses were to run in the Derby, than Watch Me Go, Shackleford, Twinspired would all be kept from the Derby field. They are all worthy of running on the first Saturday in May – Watch Me Go is the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) winner, Shackleford was beaten a nose while second in the Florida Derby (gr. I), and Twinspired was second by a head in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I).

But the question is, will they actually be excluded?

That is the mystery of the Derby that keeps everyone guessing all the way up until the day the entries are drawn – who will be excluded. Because time after time, year after year, horses who had the earnings to run in the Derby dropped out in the final days before the race.

Last year was a perfect example. In the final week prior to the Derby, Eskendereya, Rule, Interactif, and Endorsement all dropped out due to a variety of reasons. This enabled Homeboykris, Jackson Bend, Backtalk, and Make Music for Me to sneak into the race. Make Music for Me actually ended up finishing fourth as a huge longshot, charging from over twenty lengths behind to nab the spot.

We all know that horses will drop out of consideration during the next two weeks, even if it’s not due to injury. So who will make the earnings cut and who will not?

Let’s take a look:

1 Uncle Mo – Overcoming a GI infection; questionable
2 Dialed In – Will run if healthy
3 Archarcharch - Will run if healthy
4 Comma to the Top – Likely to run
5 Toby’s Corner - Will run if healthy
6 Pants On Fire - Will run if healthy
7 Midnight Interlude - Will run if healthy
8 J P’s Gusto - Questionable
9 Soldat - Will run if healthy
10 Brilliant Speed - Will run if healthy
11 Master of Hounds – Likely to run
12 Nehro - Will run if healthy
13 Twice the Appeal - Will run if healthy
14 Mucho Macho Man - Will run if healthy
15 Decisive Moment - Will run if healthy
16 Animal Kingdom – Will run if he breezes well over dirt
17 The Factor - Questionable
18 Stay Thirsty – Likely to run
19 Jaycito – Overcoming a foot bruise; will run if healthy
20 Santiva - Will run if healthy
21 Watch Me Go - Will run if healthy
22 Shackleford - Will run if healthy
23 Twinspired - May run if he makes earnings cut
24 Silver Medallion – Will run if he wins the Lexington
25 Anthony’s Cross – Questionable
26 Blue Laser – Hasn’t breezed in two weeks; questionable
27 Flashpoint – Questionable
28 Mr. Commons – Questionable
29 Sway Away – Questionable
30 Norman Asbjornson - Questionable

Let’s say for just a moment that Silver Medallion wins the Lexington. And let’s also say that all of the horses whose status remain in question were to withdraw from the race.

All of a sudden, the earnings list looks like this:

1 Dialed In – Will run if healthy
2 Archarcharch - Will run if healthy
3 Comma to the Top - Questionable
4 Toby’s Corner - Will run if healthy
5 Pants On Fire - Will run if healthy
6 Midnight Interlude - Will run if healthy
7 Soldat - Will run if healthy
8 Brilliant Speed - Will run if healthy
9 Master of Hounds – Likely to run
10 Nehro - Will run if healthy
11 Twice the Appeal - Will run if healthy
12 Mucho Macho Man - Will run if healthy
13 Silver Medallion – Will run if he wins the Lexington
14 Decisive Moment - Will run if healthy
15 Stay Thirsty – Likely to run
16 Santiva - Will run if healthy
17 Watch Me Go - Will run if healthy
18 Shackleford - Will run if healthy
19 Twinspired – May run if he makes earnings cut
20 Anthony’s Cross – Will likely run if he makes earnings cut

Under these circumstances, not only would Watch Me Go, Shackleford, and Twinspired get into the field, but Anthony’s Cross would too.

Now let’s say that two other horses were to withdraw from the Derby for some reason. We don’t want to see that happen, but suppose for a moment that it did. This would allow Blue Laser and Flashpoint into the field.

But neither are likely to run – Blue Laser hasn’t breezed in a while, and Flashpoint is being considered for the Preakness.

Now we are presented with an interesting situation. This would allow Santa Anita Derby third place finisher Mr. Commons into the race. But he isn’t really under consideration for the Derby. This would allow Sway Away to get into the race.

But suppose for a moment that Silver Medallion is upset in the Lexington, and some other horse without any graded – such as Prime Cut – was to win. This would put Prime Cut’s graded earnings at $120,000 – equal to Mr. Commons’.

Would Prime Cut run in the Derby if he had the opportunity? It’s hard to say, for he is actually being considered more for the Preakness. But the point is he could potentially make the field. That is how much the graded earnings list can change in those last two weeks.

-Keelerman