The final Kentucky Derby prep race was run last weekend -- although in reality it was not a Derby prep at all. The Lexington Stakes (gr. III) has long been a last-chance opportunity for three-year-olds to secure needed graded earnings to make the Derby field. However, the race's purse of $200,000 will likely prove insufficient this year, for it looks as though $200,000+ in earnings will be necessary to make this year's Derby. But it is still worth recapping here, simply because it will probably turn out a Preakness or Belmont Stakes contender or two.
The race, which drew a rather small field of six, was led by Silver Medallion. The promising colt, who won the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields earlier this year before finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, was sent off as the favorite at 1.30-1. The Steve Asmussen-trainee desperately needed to win the race, for he lacked the needed graded earnings to make the Derby field, and only a victory in the Lexington would suffice. Second wouldn't provide enough earnings. A win was required.
Casper's Touch, impressive winner of a Keeneland allowance race, was proven over the track and was the second choice. Prime Cut, who nearly broke a Fair Grounds track record last time out when defeating the highly regarded Bind, was also well bet. One colt who was not well bet at all was Derby Kitten, who despite being 4-1 on the morning line was sent off at a generous 9.20-1.
The race unfolded pretty much as expected, with Casper's Touch sent to the lead by rider Alan Garcia. The colt rattled off moderate fractions of :23.96 and :47.17 while maintaining a one-length lead over Silver Medallion and Prime Cut. Silver Medallion was racing along the inside in a perfect spot, while Prime Cut was on the outside three-wide. In fourth was Taptowne, with Hurricane Lake four-wide in fourth. Derby Kitten? He was last of all, about six lengths off the lead.
Suddenly, things began to change. Taptowne made a bold bid on the far outside under Corey Lanedrie and took the lead with five-sixteenths of a mile to go, running three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.11. Prime Cut had also made a run for the lead and was sitting in second, a half-length clear of Casper's Touch. Silver Medallion was down along the inside in fourth, but going nowhere. Hurricane Lake was in fifth and not responding. Derby Kitten? Still last.
Into the homestretch, Taptowne began to tired rapidly from his four-wide bid and dropped back to last. Casper's Touch battled back in front of Prime Cut, and for a brief moment appeared to be on his way to victory. But then, with a sudden burst of acceleration, Derby Kitten came flying home on the far outside. Under Julien Leparoux, the colt stormed his final five-sixteenths in a blazing :29 1/5 to win the race by a length and a half. The son of Kitten's Joy stopped the clock in a very sharp 1:42.03, just 2/5 of a second off of the track record set by Embur's Song the day before. It was a remarkable performance; one which stamps Derby Kitten as a very fine colt indeed. Horses rarely close that fast unless the early pace of the race was very, very slow -- which the pace of the Lexington was not. It is very unfortunate that Derby Kitten lacks the graded earnings to run in the Derby, for he appears to be a colt of immense talent who would relish a mile and a quarter. But perhaps the Preakness or the Belmont are in his future.
Prime Cut, making his first start over a synthetic track, ran very well to finish second and ran by no means a bad race. Despite being caught wide throughout, he gamely came back at Casper's Touch while closing his final sixteenth in somewhere around :6 1/5 or :6 2/5. Casper's Touch also ran very well, gamely reclaiming the lead in the stretch after being passed on the far turn before tiring a bit late. The only disappointment was Silver Medallion, who probably hadn't recovered enough from his Santa Anita Derby effort two weeks ago to run his best race.
Here is the complete order of finish:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Prime Cut
3 Casper's Touch
4 Silver Medallion
5 Hurricane Lake
6 Taptowne
My selections were:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Silver Medallion
3 Prime Cut
4 Casper's Touch
5 Hurricane Lake
6 Taptowne
J.R.'s picks were:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Casper's Touch
3 Silver Medallion
4 Prime Cut
5 Taptowne
6 Hurricane Lake
We both succeeded in picking the winner -- mostly because we were able to come up with strong reasons why the others would not win. We both felt that Silver Medallion wouldn't be ready to run his best race just two weeks after the Santa Anita Derby, and we both worried that Prime Cut might not take to the surface. We were both impressed by Derby Kitten’s runner-up performance in the Alligator Alley Stakes, so we both ended up adding ten points to our totals in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest.
Hello Charlie!
Derby Kitten wasn't the only mild longshot to pull off an upset last Saturday. Adios Charlie, sent off as the fifth choice in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) for three-year-olds at Aqueduct, said good bye to his rivals in deep stretch while drawing away to win the $150,000 stakes event by 2 1/2 widening lengths.
The one-mile race, contested on a sloppy sealed track, was supposed to be a battle between Cal Nation and Astrology. The former was coming off of a runner-up performance in an allowance race to stable mate Dance City, who returned to finish third in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). Astrology, a stakes-winning two-year-old, was entering off of a second place finish in the rich Sunland Derby (gr. III). A virtually even amount was wagered on the two of them to win, with Cal Nation being sent off as the slightest of favorites at 2.30-1.
Quickest out of the gate was Adios Charlie, but he was content to sit back in second as Cal Nation went to the lead under John Velazquez. Astrology was parked in third up on the outside, a length and a half clear of Justin Phillip. Rattlesnake Bridge, runner-up to champion Uncle Mo in the Timely Writer Stakes, was caught three wide in fifth, with longshot Isn't He Perfect getting a ground-saving trip in sixth. Gallant Dreams and Starship Caesar trailed the field.
The early fractions were very quick, especially so when one considers the track conditions. The opening quarter mile was run in :23.31 and the half in :47.12. The positions remained unchanged during this time. However, Cal Nation was beginning to show signs of stopping. Suddenly, on the outside, Justin Phillip flew into contention under Ramon Dominguez. In the blink of an eye, his four-wide bid had carried him into first place after three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.87. With only a quarter of a mile to go, he appeared to be home free. Adios Charlie was back to second along the inside and seemingly beaten. Cal Nation was tiring in third. Astrology was being asked for acceleration but just didn't have it. Rattlesnake Bridge was not responding, and the three longshots were well out of contention.
Passing the eighth pole, Justin Phillip was maintaining a one length lead over Adios Charlie. But suddenly, without warning, Adios Charlie turned on the afterburners. Under Rajiv Maragh, the colt found another gear in deep stretch, charging back along the inside to reclaim the lead. Justin Phillip, perhaps tiring from his four-wide sweeping bid to take the lead, tired late to finish third, a neck behind Astrology. Rattlesnake Bridge put in a mild rally for fourth, but never threatened the winner. Cal Nation faded badly to finish last, some thirteen lengths behind Adios Charlie.
In analyzing this race, several things struck me. First off, Adios Charlie proved very game to come back at Justin Phillip to win the race. But he didn't just come back -- he totally re-accelerated, drawing away to a decisive victory. He obviously relished the sloppy conditions, and being a lightly-raced colt, there should be some more improvement in the future.
Astrology, although he finished second, never really got into contention to win. He strikes me as a colt with a long grind, who can keep on running for a long, long time -- but without any instant acceleration. I noticed this last year when he was second to Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) -- he had every opportunity to blow past the winner, but just couldn't do it. In the Sunland Derby earlier this year, he hung around close to the lead but just didn't finish with a burst of speed like some horses can. I think that in order for this colt to win, he has to be on or very close to the lead turning for home.
As for Justin Phillip, he ran a very good race but just tired late. Perhaps a mile is a bit too far for him -- seven furlongs may be his ideal distance. But he's definitely a quality colt and I'm confident that he'll win a stakes race someday.
I'm not sure what happened to Cal Nation, but it would probably be wise to just toss this race out when handicapping his next start. Perhaps he didn't care for the sloppy track. But this was not the same Cal Nation that we saw at Gulfstream earlier this year, and I wouldn't jump off his bandwagon yet.
So here is the complete order of finish:
1 Adios Charlie
2 Astrology
3 Justin Phillip
4 Rattlesnake Bridge
5 Isn't He Perfect
6 Starship Caesar
7 Gallant Dreams
8 Cal Nation
Here were my picks:
1 Cal Nation
2 Astrology
3 Adios Charlie
4 Justin Phillip
5 Rattlesnake Bridge
6 Isn't He Perfect
7 Starship Caesar
8 Gallant Dreams
And here were J.R.'s picks:
1 Justin Phillip
2 Adios Charlie
3 Astrology
4 Rattlesnake Bridge
5 Cal Nation
6 Starship Caesar
7 Gallant Dreams
8 Isn't He Perfect
Other Race Results
The Golden Circle Stakes at Prairie Meadows on Saturday marked the return of Sherriff Cogburn, one of the most promising two-year-olds in the country last summer. In his first start – a five furlong maiden special weight at Arlington Park – he drew off impressively in the stretch to win by seven lengths. Behind him was Caleb’s Posse, who won the Smarty Jones Stakes earlier this year and finished second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II). One month later at Prairie Meadows, the bay colt dominated his rivals in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile Stakes, drawing away to a 9 ¼ length triumph.
However, setbacks kept the colt away for many, many months. The Golden Circle Stakes was the colt’s first start since the Prairie Meadows Juvenile. He would not be facing much – a mere three rivals turned out to face him – and he was sent off as the favorite at even-money. However, a win was not on the horizon.
In the six furlong event, Sherriff Cogburn broke cleanly and settled into third place early, just a length off of the lead. The pace was set by Arcadian, a stakes-winning juvenile who had won half of his six starts.
The opening quarter mile was run in a quick :21.98, during which Arcadian maintained his early advantage. But turning for home after a half-mile in :44.79, he was confronted by Sheriff Cogburn, Moonbie, and Sharp Dude. The four runners were separated by only about a neck as they turned for home. But Arcadian had a lot left in the tank, and quickly began pulling away. Passing the eighth pole he led by two lengths and extended that lead to 3 ¾ lengths at the wire. He completed the race in 1;09.77.
Sherriff Cogburn just edged out Moonbie for second, with Sharp Dude finishing a distant last.
The other race of note run last Saturday was the Snow Chief Stakes at Hollywood Park. A nine furlong event for California-bred three-year-olds, the slight favorite was Chiloquin. A solid allowance horse, he entered the race off of a pair of close thirds in allowance races – behind the likes of Mr. Common and Uncle Sam, among others. Drink at Busters and Thirtyfirststreet were also well bet.
However, it was the second longest shot in the field, Nahem, who got to the wire first. Ridden by Victor Espinoza, the colt rallied furiously in the final eighth of a mile to win the $150,000 event by a desperate head. The longest shot in the race, Woodmans Luck, closed even faster to finish second, completing a $1 exacta that paid a monstrous $124.80. The final time was 1:52.20.
It was another half-length back to Thirtyfirststreet, who edged out Chiloquin for fourth. The favorite led the way through moderate fractions of :24.34 and :49.01 but tired late to be beaten only a length. However, his rider lost the whip at the eighth pole, which may have cost him a better finishing position.
Burns, Offlee Wild Boys, and Drink at Busters completed the order of finish. The latter was eased late in the race and was vanned off.
Only about ten days to go until the Kentucky Derby. . . it’s getting closer and closer!
-Keelerman
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