On the morning of April 16th, trainer Bob Baffert must have been feeling pretty good about his chances in the 2011 Kentucky Derby. The white-haired master trainer, famous throughout the world thanks to the accomplishments of his numerous talented horses, had on three occasions won the Derby. In 1997, it was Silver Charm who brought home the roses. In 1998, Real Quiet pulled off the feat. 2002 also went Baffert's way, as War Emblem stormed to a wire-to-wire victory in the Run for the Roses. Now, nine years after his last victory, Baffert was sitting with three serious Derby contenders; his fourth Derby very much on the horizon.
The Factor was the head of the troops; a decorated brigadier. Three times he had earned those elusive triple-digit Beyer speed figures that stamp Derby contenders with potential greatness. With blinding speed, he had run his rivals off their feet in both the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) and the Rebel Stakes (gr. II). He was not only the favorite for Arkansas Derby (gr. I) later in the afternoon, but the favorite for the Kentucky Derby itself. Only disaster could keep the brilliant bay from his fulfilling his mission.
In comparison, Jaycito was a toughened veteran. He had won the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) despite a wide trip and having never before won a race. In his 2011 debut, he wasn't quite up to handling Premier Pegasus in his first start in four months, but still rallied strongly to finish second. A foot bruise had kept him from competing in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), but he was expected to compete in the Lexington Stakes and continue on to Kentucky as planned. The well-bred colt was obviously a true stayer, and would relish the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby.
Midnight Interlude was the newest addition to the group; the least experienced, as well. Unraced at two, the colt lost his first two races before breaking his maiden on March 20th. He was on no one’s Derby radar -- expect perhaps the radar of Baffert himself -- until he rallied furiously in the stretch to defeat Comma to the Top by a head in the Santa Anita Derby. Suddenly, the young, untested, inexperienced colt found himself in the spotlight; scrutinized by handicappers who were impressed by the adversity he had overcome in the Santa Anita Derby. His talent was clear to everyone, but a serious question remained -- no horse since Apollo in 1882 had won the Derby without racing at two. Midnight Interlude was taking an unorthodox path to Louisville, but it had worked so far.
Those were Baffert's contenders on the morning of April 16th. Now, nine days later, the Baffert Brigade has been quite possibly been reduced to just one horse.
First, The Factor failed as the heavy favorite in the Arkansas Derby. Taken just off the pace by Martin Garcia, the colt encountered a bit of a rough trip and could offer no challenge entering the homestretch. He faded to finish seventh. It was soon discovered that the colt had displaced his palate during the race, and suddenly his Derby status rose into question.
The troubles continued a few days later, when Bob Baffert did not enter Jaycito in the Lexington Stakes as planned. The foot bruise that had kept the colt out of the Santa Anita Derby had caused the colt to miss more training, but Baffert still believed that the colt would make the Derby.
However, on April 24th he broke the news that Jaycito would be forced to skip the Kentucky Derby due to the missed training. The colt simply could not be readied to run his best race in Louisville in a mere two weeks. Instead, Jaycito would await the Belmont Stakes in June, which would allow the colt much more time to train and recover from his foot problem.
But this was not the end. On the morning of April 25th, it was announced that The Factor had undergone surgery to correct the breathing issue that had occurred during the Arkansas Derby. The colt galloped at Churchill Downs this morning, but Baffert stated that he was not thinking about the Kentucky Derby and that The Factor would have to train exceptionally well in order for him to be entered in the Run for the Roses.
In a matter of two days, the Baffert Brigade had lost its two biggest stars, leaving only Midnight Interlude to carry the hopes of Derby glory for Baffert in Louisville. Midnight Interlude has suddenly become the star of the stable; the lone hopeful to add a fourth victory in America's biggest race to Baffert's résumé. Should he succeed in capturing the Run for the Roses, it would be a feat of unequaled magnitude. For a horse to win the Kentucky Derby off of zero starts at two and having broken his maiden in mid-March, he must have the rare blend of speed, stamina, talent, and heart that only appears in the greatest of champions. Midnight Interlude has the talent. He's shown that the speed and stamina exists. But the heart -- oh, the heart. Without it, no horse can achieve true greatness. To enter the quarter-mile homestretch at Churchill Downs, already tired and leg-weary, and put every last ounce toward reaching the wire ahead of nineteen other horses requires the heart of a champion.
Should Midnight Interlude reach the wire victorious on the first Saturday in May, then he will have stamped his legend into the history books with indelible ink. Not even time itself will wither or diminish the incredible exploit. Should Midnight Interlude reach the wire victorious on the first Saturday in May, he will have achieved true greatness; something that Jaycito and The Factor could not have achieved with a Derby victory. They had followed the beaten paths to Churchill Downs; the same paths that many other Derby winners before them had cleared. Midnight Interlude has cleared his own path; a shortcut through the deep swamps and rocky mountains which have caused other horses to turn away. He has overcome every obstacle set before him thus far, but now he must hurdle the biggest challenge yet -- 129 years of history. But if he can do it, he will become a Derby legend.
The Factor and Jaycito both could have won the Derby, but not the legend. Only Midnight Interlude can do that. Bob Baffert may have lost his two biggest Derby contenders -- but he still has a legend in the making.
-Keelerman
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