Do you believe in the key race theory?
The "key race theory" is not the easiest theory to explain, but it is a very easy concept to grasp. The key race theory is the idea that some races have, say, a very solid field of horses that end up performing well in the future. A perfect example was the 2008 Apple Blossom Handicap, a race that was about as key as you can get. Here are the results of that race:
1st Zenyatta
2nd Brownie Points
3rd Ginger Punch
4th Lemon Drop Kid
5th Clever Strike
6th Kettleoneup
In their next starts. . .
• Zenyatta finished 1st in the Milady Handicap (gr. II).
• Brownie Points finished 1st in the Ouija Board Handicap (gr. III).
• Ginger Punch finished 1st in the Louisville Handicap (gr. II).
• Lemon Drop Mom finished 1st in the Winter Melody Stakes.
• Clever Strike finished 1st in an allowance race.
• Kettleoneup finished 5th in the Louisville Stakes (gr. II).
Notice the trend? Five of the six horses that ran in the Apple Blossom came back to win their next start. Now, most key races aren't quite that stunning -- most key races have three, perhaps four, horses return to win their next races.
My favorite kind of key race is what I call the "Key Maiden Race". As the name implies, it is a race for maidens which ends up turning out several very good horses.
Here are a few examples of "Key Maiden Races" that I have always been amazed by:
9-4-10: The 6th at Saratoga
The race was a seven furlong, main track $50,000 maiden special weight for two-year-olds. Here were the entries:
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Lemon Ghost
3 Voodat
4 Astrology
5 Golden Gulch
6 Data Link
7 Economic Summit
8 Scotus (ended up scratching)
9 Punster
10 King Ting
11 Anthony's Cross
12 Praetereo
13 Philippe
14 Dr. Tom G
Also Eligibles
15 Whistlin' Dixie
1a Gallant Dreams (ended up scratching)
Recognize any of those names? Of course you do! Astrology went on to win the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) and ran second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) and Sunland Derby (gr. III). He is a contender for the Kentucky Derby next month. To Honor and Serve won the Nashua (gr. II) and the Remsen (gr. II) to become one of the leading juveniles of 2010. Anthony's Cross won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and is a contender for the Kentucky Derby.
And those were just the best colts to emerge from the race! Data Link has won three straight races on turf and will run in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) this coming Saturday. Philippe was beaten a neck in the Hansel Stakes just last month. Economic Summit has competed in two graded stakes races. King Ting, Punster, Praetereo, and Dr. Tom G all broke their maidens.
That is a key race if I ever saw one! For the record, Astrology won the race by two lengths over To Honor and Serve, with Anthony’s Cross another two lengths back in third.
7-4-09: The 11th at Churchill Downs
What appeared to be an ordinary six furlong maiden special weight for two-year-olds turned out to be a spectacular key maiden race. The winner was Thiskyhasnolimit, who went on to win the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III). The runner-up was Worldly, a solid colt who has placed in a variety of graded stakes events. Finishing seventh was Paddy O'Prado, who hit the board in seven graded stakes races in 2010, with the Secretariat (gr. I), Virginia Derby (gr. II), and the Colonial Turf Cup Stakes (gr. II) among his victories.
8-1-09: The 6th at Saratoga
The race was a six-furlong main track allowance race for two-year-olds. Finishing first was Dublin, who went on to win the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I). The runner-up was Hockley, who went on to become a solid allowance horse. In third was Eightfiveinafifty, the blazingly fast colt who won the 2010 Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III). Fourth was Discreetly Mine, who won the 2010 King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. I) and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). Even last-place finisher, Krypton, went on to great things. He won the grade III Hill Prince Stakes and finished third in a pair of other graded stakes races.
6-11-09: The 7th at Churchill Downs
An ordinary Thursday at Churchill Downs is not the place where one usually looks for key maiden races, but this was an exception. In a five furlong maiden special weight, the winner was Backtalk, who went on to win the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) and become a solid lower-level stakes sprinter. Finishing second was the above-mentioned Thiskyhasnolimit. In third was Red Rally, who won three Louisiana-bred stakes races in 2009. And in fourth was Dublin, the grade I winner who I also mentioned above.
6-10-10: The 2nd at Belmont Park
This race is without a doubt one of the most fascinating I've ever seen. The winner was Bail Out the Cat, who finished second in the Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) later that year. But it was the horses he beat who ended up doing the best running. 2 1/4 lengths behind him was Soldat, who as we all know went on to win the Fountain of Youth (gr. II), With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III), and run second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) and the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III). And finishing third was Pluck, whose thrilling late runs earned him victories in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) and Summer Stakes (gr. III).
****
Now, about the Count Fleet Stakes, run on January 1st 2011. Although the horses emerging from the race on the whole didn’t do anything spectacular in their next starts, it's looking more and more like a key race with every passing week.
Here were the entries:
#/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Pants On Fire (5-2)
2 J J's Lucky Train (7-2)
3 Tap Star (10-1)
4 Rush Now (3-1)
5 Arthur's Tale (4-1)
6 Isn't He Perfect (Scratched)
7 Monzon (10-1)
And here are a few lines that I wrote about the race when handicapping it on this blog at the time:
"As today is Saturday, there are several good races carded across the country, including several stakes races for the new three-year-olds. Although none of them are graded, they could potentially impact the Triple Crown Trail in major ways. This week's feature race shall be the Count Fleet Stakes, a $65,000 stakes races run over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct at a distance of one mile and seventy yards."
"The morning line favorite is Pants On Fire, who drew the rail. A son of Jump Start out of Cabo de Noche, he lost two maiden special weight races before coming through with a dominating performance going a mile at Delaware Park. Sent off as the favorite in the maiden special weight event, he quickly took the lead and drew off easily to win by seven lengths. His next-and most recent-start came in an allowance optional claiming event going a mile and seventy yards over the Aqueduct inner track. Sent off as the third choice, he took the lead from the outset despite stumbling at the start and led all the way into the stretch before grudgingly giving way to Rescind the Trade. He ended up second, beaten a neck; 5 1/4 lengths in front of the third place finisher. The performance was excellent; one which definitely earns him the status as favorite today."
"This brings us to J J's Lucky Train, the third choice. Trained by William Anderson, the son of Silver Train out of the Thunder Gulch mare Delta Sensation broke his maiden in sharp fashion first time out. Sent off at nearly 8-1 in a maiden claiming event at Monmouth Park, he rated just off the pace before making a bold bid to win the 5-1/2 furlong event by 2 1/2 lengths. This strong victory warranted a start in the grade III Sapling Stakes, also at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 37-1, he ended up sixth, beaten six lengths after failing to menace. This performance, lackluster as it was, raised his odds in his next start, a six-furlong starter allowance race at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 2-1, he made his odds seem like a bargain as he powered past the leader turning for home to draw off and win by nearly six lengths, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:10 3/5. Amazingly, this impressive run was not enough to earn him the status of favorite in his most recent start, a one mile and seventy yards allowance race at Parx Racing. Sent off as the third choice, he went straight to the lead and held off all challengers en route to a 2 1/4 length victory. He seems to be the kind of colt who just keeps improving, and he looks like a legitimate contender here today. . ."
"Arthur's Tale is the fourth choice on the morning line, and he drew gate five. The son of Bernardini out of Owsley has made four starts thus far, all of them in maiden special weights at a variety of tracks. In the most recent of these races, a one-mile event on the inner track at Aqueduct, he secured his first victory by out gaming Dance City inside the eighth pole to win by two lengths despite being carried wide on the first turn."
What have these horses done since then? Pants On Fire won the Lousiana Derby (gr. II) and finished second in the LeComte (gr. III). J J's Lucky Train won the Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III), the Miracle Wood Stakes, and ran second in the Whirlaway. Arthur's Tale finished second in the Wood Memorial (gr. I).
I find this nearly unbelievable. Who would have guessed that three runners from this race would end up competing so well just a few months later? At the time, the race didn't strike me as a particularly strong field. The order of finish was:
1 Monzon
2 J J's Lucky Train
3 Pants On Fire
4 Arthur's Tale
5 Tap Star
6 Rush Now
Now, if only it were easy to find these key races before all of the runners come back and upset big races at impressive odds. . . :)
So was the Count Fleet Stakes a true key race? Will Monzon run huge and big odds in his next start? On the day of the Count Fleet, he was better than the Louisiana Derby winner and the Wood Memorial runner-up.
Your thoughts?
-Keelerman
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