1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Not much to say about him until he records his final Derby breeze. In the days following the Florida Derby, I wondered from time to time if it was wise to have him above Uncle Mo and The Factor. Now, it seems perfectly logical.
2. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He has been breezing extremely well at Gulfstream Park -- and has arrived at Churchill Downs to prepare for the Derby. As long as he continues to train well at Churchill, he will remain in my top five.
3. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I was really impressed by this colt's late run in the Arkansas Derby. He has now finished second in two $1,000,000 Derby preps. A versatile colt, he has proven himself to be a legitimate contender.
4. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
This colt just keeps getting better. True, Nehro was closing into his lead rapidly in the Arkansas Derby. But Archarcharch seemed to have more acceleration, and that will be very useful in the Kentucky Derby.
5. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
He has arrived at Churchill Downs to prepare for the Kentucky Derby. Of course, we still don't know for sure that he will even run in the race -- according to Todd Pletcher, he must be 100% in order to run in the Kentucky Derby.
6. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
We won't know much more about this colt until he breezes again. His position on this list will be determined from here on out by how well he works out leading up to the biggest race of his life.
7. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
This colt is going to have to overcome a lot of history in order to win the Derby. . . but on the other hand, he overcame great adversity to win the Santa Anita Derby, so maybe it doesn't matter that he didn't race at two and broke his maiden in March. Breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5 at Santa Anita this morning.
8. Pants On Fire - Trained by Kelly Breen
Recorded his first workout since the Louisiana Derby on April 15th, scorching five furlongs in :58.70 at Fair Grounds. This colt seems to be getting good at the right time.
9. Master of Hounds - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
Runner-up in this year's UEA Derby (Group II) in Dubai, this colt will likely ship to Churchill Downs to compete in the Kentucky Derby. He's been here before -- he ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year -- but has never raced on dirt before. On the other hand, he has raced farther than any of the other colts on this list ever have.
10. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
The Lexington Stakes (gr. III) this Saturday at Keeneland is likely for this colt, who lacks the sufficient graded earnings to make the Derby field. He likely wouldn't have to win the race to get into the Derby -- just second or perhaps even third. But I would like to see him turn in a strong performance in order to remain a legitimate contender.
11. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Roman
The Florida Derby runner-up is on the graded earnings bubble, but has already arrived at Churchill Downs to begin training. He hasn't worked out since the Florida Derby, which worries me just a bit, but I'm sure that he'll breeze soon.
12. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
A troubled trip cost him any chance at winning the Blue Grass Stakes, and he ended up finishing ninth. It's hard to say how well it will set him up for the Derby, but I wouldn't count him out.
13. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Like Shackleford, Soldat has not recorded a workout since the Florida Derby. He is currently still at Palm Meadows and won't be shipping to Churchill Downs for a while. I expect him to breeze within the next few days.
14. Animal Kingdom - Trained by H. Motion
Breezed a sharp five furlongs in :59 1/5 on April 16th at Keeneland, but whether or not he competes in the Derby will depend a great deal on his next workout, which will come over the Churchill Downs main track. If it's a good breeze, he will likely run. If not, he's nominated to the American Turf Stakes (gr. II) on Kentucky Oaks day.
15. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
His loss as the heavy favorite in the Arkansas Derby could be explained by a number of things. Perhaps he needs the lead in order to win, something he did not get in Arkansas. Perhaps he can't handle the distance, which doesn't seem likely seeing how he powered away in the stretch of the Rebel Stakes. I've read that a displaced palete was the cause of his poor performance. If that is the case, than I can see him rebounding in the Derby. Whether or not he runs in the big race is another question entirely.
16. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
He had a really nice breeze on April 17th at Churchill Downs, working a half-mile in :47 2/5. He will be a longshot in the Derby, but he may be getting good at the right time.
17. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Decisive Moment, he recorded a workout at Churchill Downs, breezing a half-mile in :48 flat on April 17th. Hard to see him rebounding off of his sub-par Florida Derby performance to win the Kentucky Derby, but if he trains well I wouldn't count him out.
18. Brilliant Speed - Trained by Thomas Albertrani
I must admit, he lived up to his name in the Blue Grass Stakes. He closed his final three-eighths in less than 35 seconds and was simply flying at the finish. But that was over Keeneland's Polytrack. Can he show the same late burst of speed on dirt? We won't know until the Derby.
19. Twice the Appeal - Trained by Jeff Bonde
The Sunland Derby winner has plenty of graded stakes earnings, but whether or not he is good enough to win a race like the Derby remains in question.
20. Anthony's Cross - Trained by Eoin Harty
With disappointing peformances by the two Derby favorites, his fifth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby doesn't look so bad. He probably wasn't at his best, having not raced in nearly two months, and should be sharper for the Derby if he gets in.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Note: I have removed Crimson China and Brethren from these lists due to the fact that both are being given breaks and most likely won't run in any Triple Crown races. I have also removed Jaycito from my Top Twenty because he may not run in the Lexington Stakes, which would leave him without a good prep for the Kentucky Derby. Finally, I removed Joe Vann because he is not nominated to the Triple Crown and is being pointed to the Ohio Derby.
Just Out of the Top
Astrology - The Jerome Handicap will be his next start.
Caleb's Posse - Was bumped hard at the start of the Arkansas Derby and never had a chance.
Dance City - Very game third in the Arkansas Derby should set him up well for the Preakness.
Elite Alex - Disappointing ninth in the Arkansas Derby cost him any chance at making the Derby field.
Jaycito - If he misses the Lexington, then there's no way that he could make the Derby.
Joyful Victory - Fantasy Stakes winner will most likely run in the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby.
Mr Commons - Good third in the Santa Anita Derby, but graded earnings are a concern.
R Heat Lightning - Kentucky Oaks favorite would be in my top twenty if she was aiming for the Derby.
Sway Away - Made a bold four-wide run in the Arkansas Derby, but flattened out to finish fourth.
Twinspired - Runner-up in the Blue Grass Stakes lacks sufficient earnings to make the Derby field.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - Beaten a neck when third in the Transylvania Stakes.
Alternation - Closed mildly in the Arkansas Derby, but needed to show more.
Bandbox - Breezed sharply recently; the Preakness isn't out of the question.
Cal Nation - Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Comma to the Top - In retrospect, he closed his final eighth in the Santa Anita Derby in :12 3/5. That is not tiring.
Kathmanblu - Will attempt to rebound in the Kentucky Oaks.
King Congie - Was beaten only a head while third in the Blue Grass, but drifted out quite a bit in the stretch.
Queen'splatekitten - Tired late in the Blue Grass after racing wide and close to the pace.
Wilkinson - Disappointing in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Clarke Lane - Wasn't entered in the Blue Grass.
Crimson Knight - Hasn't raced since the Tampa Bay Derby.
Flashpoint - Wondering where he will race next.
Indian Winter - Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby.
J P's Gusto - Tired in the Arkansas Derby after setting a quick pace.
J W Blue - Never really threatened in the Arkansas Derby.
Machen - He seems to be a cut below two turn stakes caliber.
Monzon - Not sure where he will run next.
Norman Asbjornson - Fourth in the Wood Memorial wasn't great.
Watch Me Go - Disappointing sixth in the Illinois Derby, but will run in the Kentucky Derby if he has the graded earnings.
-Keelerman
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