Who will Calvin Borel ride in the 2011 Kentucky Derby?

Everyone knows who Calvin Borel is. The famous jockey, who was nominated for induction into the Hall of Fame this year, has ridden three of the last four winners of the Kentucky Derby. Famous for his rail-skimming rides, he has guided Street Sense, Mine That Bird, and Super Saver into the history books. He is the second-most winning rider at Churchill Downs only behind Pat Day, and was the regular rider of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra.

Now, as we approach the 2011 Kentucky Derby, one question stands above all:

Who will Calvin Borel ride?

Yes, the jockey who has ridden the last two Kentucky Derby winners actually does not yet have a mount for this year's edition of the Run for the Roses. Now, it would be simply unfathomable if he failed to secure a mount in the race which has made him famous; yet when one looks over the Kentucky Derby contenders, one sees few options for the famous jockey.

Out of curiosity, I compiled a list of all the top Derby contenders and the jockeys that have ridden them during their past few races.

Here is a list of top contenders and their likely Derby riders:

Archarcharch - Jon Court
Brilliant Speed - Joel Rosario
Decisive Moment - Kerwin Clark
Dialed In - Julien Leparoux
Midnight Interlude - Victor Espinoza
Mucho Macho Man - Rajiv Maragh
Pants On Fire - Rosie Napravnik
Shackleford - Jesus Castanon
Soldat - Alan Garcia
Stay Thirsty - Ramon Dominguez
The Factor - Martin Garcia
Toby's Corner - Eddie Castro
Twice the Appeal - Christian Santiago Reyes
Uncle Mo - John Velazquez
Watch Me Go - Luis Garcia

It's safe to say that the above horses will be ridden by their corresponding riders on Derby day, barring something unusual, such as an injury.

Here is where it gets interesting: the following is a list of horses whose Derby riders remain in question.

Animal Kingdom - Alan Garcia/Rajiv Maragh/Robby Albarado
Brethren - Ramon Dominguez
Comma to the Top - Corey Nakatani
J P's Gusto - M. Berry/Ramon Dominguez/Joseph Talamo/Patrick Valenzuela
Jaycito - Martin Garcia/Mike Smith
Nehro - Corey Nakatani/Michael Baze
Santiva - Julien Leparoux/Mike Smith/Shaun Bridgmohan/Javier Castellano/Edgar Prado
Silver Medallion - Garrett Gomez/Russell Baze

We'll start at the top of the list, with Animal Kingdom. This colt was ridden by Alan Garcia when he won the Vinery Spiral Stakes, by Rajiv Maragh when second in an allowance optional claiming race, and by Robby Albarado when he broke his maiden. Now, Alan Garcia is the regular rider of Soldat, winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) earlier this year. I assume that Garcia will stick with Soldat, as he is generally considered to have a better chance at winning the Derby.

What about Rajiv Maragh? He's the regular rider of Mucho Macho Man, and I can't see him abandoning that colt. This leaves us with Robby Albarado, who is actually scheduled to ride the colt during his next breeze. So I will take a guess and say that Robby Albarado ends up on Animal Kingdom in the Derby.

This brings us to Brethren, who ran very poorly in the Arkansas Derby. His regular rider is Ramon Dominguez, but Dominguez is also the regular rider of Stay Thirsty. Seeing that Stay Thirsty has the graded earnings to make the Derby and Brethren does not, I assume that Dominguez will stick with Stay Thirsty. This leaves the mount on Brethren open, but as I mentioned, he doesn't have the earnings to make the Derby.

Comma to the Top also has a regular rider in Corey Nakatani. However, Corey Nakatani rode Nehro to finish a late-closing second in the Arkansas Derby. Which horse Nakatani chooses will leave the other open to someone else.

Let's say for a moment that Nakatani chooses Comma to the Top. Who would ride Nehro in the Derby? Perhaps Michael Baze, who rode the colt when he broke his maiden and when he was second in the Louisiana Derby.

On the other hand, suppose that Nakatani chooses Nehro? Then that leaves Comma to the Top riderless. Who would ride Comma to the Top in the Derby? The mount would be wide open.

J P's Gusto could find himself being ridden by anyone in the Derby. M. Berry rode him in the Arkansas Derby. Ramon Dominguez rode him in the Rebel and the Southwest Stakes. Joseph Talamo was his rider in the CashCall Futurity, and Patrick Valenzuela was aboard in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Norfolk Stakes, Del Mar Futurity, and Best Pal Stakes. Joseph Talamo rode him in the Hollywood Juvenile Champion Stakes and Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes, and Joel Rosario was aboard in his first start.

Confused yet? So am I. Anyone could be aboard J P's Gusto in the Derby.

What about Jaycito? Martin Garcia was aboard for the colt’s first two races -- a pair of seconds in a maiden special weight and the Del Mar Futurity. Then Mike Smith took over and rode the colt to a victory in the Norfolk Stakes and a distant seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Then Martin Garcia reclaimed the mount in the San Felipe Stakes, where Jaycito ran second.

I see it this way -- if The Factor makes it to Churchill Downs, Garcia will ride him and leave Jaycito for Mike Smith. However, if The Factor does not run in the Derby, then Garcia will get the mount on Jaycito.

Then there is Santiva, who has no regular rider whatsoever. In six starts, he has had five different jockeys aboard. Obviously, Julien Leparoux -- who rode the colt in the Blue Grass Stakes -- is already committed to Dialed In. Mike Smith rode the colt in the Risen Star Stakes, and could potentially ride the colt in the Derby if he does not get the mount on Jaycito. If not Mike Smith, than Shaun Bridgmohan is always an option.

Finally, we come to Silver Medallion. Garrett Gomez was aboard the colt in the Santa Anita Derby, where he finished fourth. He was also aboard three starts back when the colt won the Eddie Logan Stakes. In between, Russell Baze rode the colt to a thrilling victory in the El Camino Real Derby. Who gets the mount on Silver Medallion much depends on who rides him in the upcoming Lexington Stakes. I would guess that Garrett Gomez will be aboard.

So whose does this leave Calvin Borel with? The way I see it, he could potentially be aboard Animal Kingdom, Brethren, Comma to the Top, J P's Gusto, Nehro, or Santiva. Of those, I highly doubt that Brethren will make the Derby, and I suspect that Animal Kingdom and Santiva will end up with other riders. This leaves Borel with:

Comma to the Top
J P's Gusto
Nehro

It's a slim group of horses, but it's better than nothing. Although Comma to the Top and J P's Gusto both have apparent distance limitations, Nehro looks like a legitimate Derby contender. Who will Borel ride? That remains to be seen. But I'll take a guess and say that he ends up on Nehro.

Who do you think he will ride?

-Keelerman