JOYFUL VICTORY: Kentucky Oaks Favorite?

Should Joyful Victory be the Kentucky Oaks favorite?

Yes.

I hope that you were able to watch the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon at Oaklawn Park, for I have the suspicion that the winner is on her way to numerous grade I victories. The winner was Joyful Victory, a gray or roan filly by Tapit out of the Wild Again mare Wild Lucy Black.

Only four horses were in the race, but it was a solid field. Joyful Victory was the favorite at 0.60-1, based off of her stunning victory in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) last month. The second choice was the undefeated Arienza, a daughter of 2002 Horse of the Year Azeri. She had impressively won her first two races and was expected to provide Joyful Victory with a stiff challenge.

However, Joyful Victory had other ideas.

With Mike Smith aboard, Joyful Victory broke well and settled into third position rounding the first turn. Up front was Explosive Disco, who was hugging the rail well under Jon Court. Arienza was sitting in second, perhaps three or four paths off the rail. Holy Heavens, runner-up in the Honeybee, was last of all.

A fast pace ensued, during which Arienza moved closer to Explosive Disco and Joyful Victory closer to Arienza. Joyful Victory was a bit rank down the backstretch, begging to be let loose. But Mike Smith got her to settle, and she remained content to track the leaders approaching the far turn.

With three furlongs to go, Arienza made a sudden bid to take the lead. But Joyful Victory was surging up three wide, and as the field turned for home the two favorites were stride for stride on the front end.

For a few brief moments, it appeared as though the two fillies would battle to the wire. But then Joyful Victory put Arienza away, powering away under a hand ride in the stretch to win by seven lengths. Arienza narrowly held second over Holy Heavens.

Several things in this race struck me as fascinating. First off, Joyful Victory stuck very close to the rail on the first turn. Secondly, the ease at which she blew past Arienza was astonishing. She seems to have a very quick turn of foot, which could prove very useful in the Kentucky Oaks. Secondly, she ran straight and true in the homestretch, drifting very little if at all. Although the final time (1:44.74) and her final sixteenth (:7.11) were nothing remarkable, it must be noted that Oaklawn's racing surface rarely turns in blazing fast times.

In conclusion, it appears as though R Heat Lightning, the heavy favorite for the Kentucky Oaks, will at least have someone to reckon with in Louisville.

-Keelerman