Today is arguably the biggest day for three-year-olds so far this year, for today is the day of the Florida Derby -- in which Soldat, To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty, and Dialed In battle it out over a mile and an eighth for the winner's share of a $1,000,000 purse. Not only that, the winner will likely head to Louisville as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Maybe even THE favorite, if Uncle Mo and The Factor were to fail in their final prep races.
That's why this week's feature race is the Florida Derby.
FEATURE RACE: Florida Derby (gr. I)
$1,000,000 Purse, Nine Furlongs, Gulfstream Park Main Track
Five weeks until the Kentucky Derby -- just five. It's hard to believe that it's nearly here. It seems like just yesterday we were analyzing the Count Fleet Stakes, and the Sham Stakes. . . yet that was months ago.
The Florida Derby has been doing very well in producing Derby contenders in recent years. Last year, Florida Derby winner Ice Box ran second in the Kentucky Derby. In 2008, Big Brown won the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro did the same in 2006.
Based on these facts alone, whoever wins this year's Florida Derby should have an excellent shot at performing admirably in the Kentucky Derby. And then when you consider the quality of this year's field, I would not be surprised at all if one of them went on to win the Run for the Roses.
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Soldat 9-5
2 To Honor and Serve 4-1
3 Arch Traveler 20-1
4 Bowman's Causeway 20-1
5 Shackleford 20-1
6 Stay Thirsty 8-1
7 Dialed In 2-1
8 Flashpoint 6-1
All will carry 122 pounds.
Soldat, the morning line favorite, has drawn the rail. The son of War Front has proven to be extremely versatile throughout his career. He has graded stakes victories on dirt and turf. He run well on the lead and coming from off the pace. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the marvelous colt is coming off of two consecutive victories. The first was a nine furlong allowance race over a sloppy, sealed Gulfstream Park main track. He won by 10 3/4 lengths and earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure. His next race was the Fountain of Youth (gr. II), where he kicked clear of the highly regarded To Honor and Serve on the far turn to win by two lengths. To be ridden by Alan Garcia, I would not be surprised to see the colt just off the pace today, perhaps racing along in second or third in the early going.
To Honor and Serve has drawn gate two. The colt was a brilliant juvenile, sweeping to easy victories in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last fall at Aqueduct. However, he was very disappointing in his 2011 debut, tiring on the far turn to finish a distant third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Trained by Bill Mott, he should be considerably sharper this time around and the son of Bernardini should be right in contention in the homestretch. He has some good tactical speed and should be able to get himself into a very good position early on. Garrett Gomez will ride the chestnut colt for the first time.
Arch Traveler is an intriguing contender. He broke his maiden third time out going seven furlongs in 1:22 1/5. His next start was his first two-turn race. Although he did win -- by three-quarters of a length over Nacho Business -- he ran the race in 1:52 1/5 and was drifting in the stretch. I have the suspicion that he may be more effective sprinting, but he definitely deserves a chance to prove himself under these circumstances. Trained by James Jerkens, the son of Sky Mesa will be ridden by Jose Lezcano.
In gate four we find Bowman's Causeway, a very promising son of Giant's Causeway who looks to have a bright future. In his first start, he finished third in a maiden special weight behind Mucho Macho Man and Bellamy's Boss. In his second start he was narrowly beaten by Nacho Business. Finally, he broke his maiden on February 11th, winning a nine furlong maiden special weight by a length. Fifteen days later he ran in the Fountain of Youth, where he finished fourth after a rough trip. In his most recent start, a March 19th one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream, he ran a close third behind a very promising pair in Dance City and Cal Nation. I feel that Bowman's Causeway is a true two-turn colt, and that he wants to go long -- a mile and a quarter, maybe even a mile and a half. The Fountain of Youth may be too short for him. But I doubt that he will be tiring at the finish. Trained by Patrick Biancone, Paco Lopez has the mount.
Shackleford is another longshot who may be a bit overlooked. He broke his maiden impressively second time out, winning a seven furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by a very game performance. In his 2011 debut, he pulled away from Casper's Touch and El Grayling in deep stretch to win a nine furlong allowance race by 2 1/4 lengths. Entered in the Fountain of Youth, he was caught wide and finished a disappointing fifth. With a better trip, I expect him to run considerably better today. The son of Forestry is trained by Dale Romans and will be ridden by J. Castanon.
This brings us to Stay Thirsty, who has drawn gate six. The son of Bernardini has proven to be very consistent throughout his five-race career. In his first start, he was beaten two lengths going 5-1/2 furlongs by a nice colt in Sovereign Default. He then won a six furlong maiden special weight by 5 1/2 lengths. Entered in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) against the magnificent Boys at Tosconova, he fought well to finish second, beaten just 1 3/4 lengths. An attempt at winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile yielded less: a distant fifth place finish, but he was only beaten by four lengths for third. He was then put away for the year, returning on March 5th to make his 2011 debut in the Gotham Stakes. In that race, he was caught wide on both turns but still drew off strongly to win by 3 1/4 lengths. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the well-bred colt should be able to stay all day. But he has been known to drift in the stretch, so I would like to see him stay a bit straighter today. Ramon Dominguez will ride.
In gate seven is Dialed In, one of the most promising three-year-olds in the country. He broke his maiden first time out going 6-1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, rallying through traffic from far back to win the race by a half-length. His second start came in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) against the likes of Sweet Ducky, Gourmet Dinner, and Mucho Macho Man. He won in impressive fashion, charging from way back to win by 1 1/2 lengths. His third and most recent start came in a nine furlong allowance race against older horses, where his late run was compromised by a very slow pace. He still managed to rally well to be beaten only a 1/2 length by a good four-year-old in Equestrio. Trained by Nick Zito, the son of Mineshaft needs only a quick pace to be able to win this race. Julien Leparoux will ride the dark bay colt.
Finally, we come to the undefeated and brilliant Flashpoint. A son of Pomeroy, he broke his maiden first time out at Aqueduct, running six furlongs in 1:09 3/5 en route to a 6 1/4 length triumph. His second start came in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth. In that race, he dueled early with heavily favored Travelin Man before putting that one away and drawing off to a breathtaking 7 1/4 length victory. He stopped the clock in 1:22 flat and earned a Beyer speed figure of 102. Now, this will be his first start beyond seven furlongs, and he must overcome the far outside post position. It will not be easy at all. But if he wins, expect him to shoot to near the top of everyone's lists of Kentucky Derby contenders. The colt is trained by Rick Dutrow, who won the 2008 Florida Derby with Big Brown, and will be ridden by C. Velasquez.
I must admit that this is an extremely difficult race to handicap. There is no standout contender. Every horse has a shot at hitting the board. But I feel that Dialed In, To Honor and Serve, and Soldat are the main contenders. I expect To Honor and Serve to be considerably sharper today than he was in the Fountain of Youth, and the pace should be quick enough to set up Dialed In's late rally. As for Soldat, he's a very good horse indeed and has an excellent chance at winning this race. But I am concerned that he won't be able to get a good trip.
So my picks are:
1 Dialed In
2 To Honor and Serve
3 Stay Thirsty
4 Soldat
5 Bowman’s Causeway
6 Flashpoint
7 Shackleford
8 Arch Traveler
This is such a magnificent field; I really don’t want to place any horse in that eighth spot! But I feel that Soldat and Flashpoint will not get good trips due to their respective post positions. With such a short run to the first turn, Flashpoint will have to be sent hard to the lead if he doesn’t want to get caught wide. And with so many horses attempting to get closer to the rail, I wouldn’t be surprised if Soldat was to get bumped around a bit. So I’ve picked Dialed In, hoping that the pace will be quick enough for him to rally for victory in deep stretch.
J.R. has a slightly different idea. He feels that Stay Thirsty is the best horse in the race, and that the colt will pounce impressively at the top of the stretch before drawing away to win by a length or two. He’s not very impressed with Dialed In.
His picks are:
1 Stay Thirsty
2 Bowman’s Causeway
3 Soldat
4 To Honor and Serve
5 Dialed In
6 Arch Traveler
7 Flashpoint
8 Shackleford
This is a race that you simply must see! You can watch a live streaming of the race at DRF.com.
Here’s the link:
http://www.drf.com/news/florida-derby-day-gulfstream-park
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The third race at Aqueduct definitely merits attention. A one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds and up, the race has drawn a five horse field. The 4-5 morning line favorite is Break Up The Game, a three-year-old colt who has shown a potent late kick in the past. Rigby, a four-year-old colt, is the 9- second choice. If Break Up The Game can defeat this field of older horses, than he is certainly one to watch for some of the best races later this year.
The seventh race at Santa Anita is even more exciting. The one-mile main track allowance optional claiming race has drawn an eight horse field, led by the very promising Wilburn. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the colt broke his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs last month in a brilliant 1:13.95. He earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure that day, and if he can match that performance today he should win easily. Chiloquin, a close third behind the promising Mr. Commons going a mile last time out, will be right there in the stretch if Wilburn falters. Uncle Sam, fourth in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) back in January, has been breezing sharply and will probably be the second choice. Special Kid, third in the Borderland Derby last time out, is also a logical contender.
Another intriguing contender is 20-1 shot Clarke Lane, who will be making his first start in the United States. He has been racing in Europe. Leading rider of the meet Joel Rosario has the mount.
The Swale Stakes (gr. II) on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth is also an intriguing race. The 4-5 morning line favorite is Travelin Man, who was second to Flashpoint in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) last time out. Against only five rivals, three of which he finished ahead of in the Hutcheson, I can’t see him losing.
My picks are:
1 Travelin’ Man
2 Little Drama
3 Indiano
4 Razmataz
5 Black N Beauty
6 Megalith
J.R.’s picks are:
1 Little Drama
2 Travelin’ Man
3 Razmataz
4 Black N Beauty
5 Indiano
6 Megalith
That’s all for the moment! Now go enjoy a fabulous day of racing! I will be posting live updates on my blog throughout the day as the best races are run!
-Keelerman
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