There is an unbelievable amount of racing action for three-year-olds this weekend. The Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), Wood Memorial (gr. I), Ashland Stakes (gr. I), Fantasy Stakes (gr. II), and Illinois Derby (gr. III) are among the races which will have a major influence on the Triple Crown and Kentucky Oaks. Picking a feature race is next to impossible, but I finally settled on the Santa Anita Derby.
FEATURE RACE: The Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
Santa Anita Park/Main Track/Nine Furlongs/$1,000,000 Purse
The 74th running of the grade I Santa Anita Derby has lost some luster over the last few days after it was announced that both Premier Pegasus and Jaycito would not be running. Premier Pegasus, one of the leading Kentucky Derby contenders, is off the trail due to a hairline fracture of a cannon bone. Jaycito is suffering from a minor foot bruise which will cause him to miss the race. These scratches have left the field with only nine runners.
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse
1 Offlee Wild Boys
2 Indian Winter
3 Mr. Commons
4 Silver Medallion
5 Comma to the Top
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Quail Hill
8 Premier Pegasus
9 Anthony’s Cross
10 Bench Points
11 Jaycito
All will carry 122 pounds.
Drawing the rail is Offlee Wild Boys. One of the more heavily-raced horses in the field, the son of Offlee Wild has made twelve starts in a career that has spanned five different race tracks, four different surfaces, and distances from 4-1/2 furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth. Trained by Steven Miyadi, the gelding has won four times thus far, and enters the Santa Anita Derby off of two consecutive victories in route races at Golden Gate Fields. He has shown some decent early speed in the past, and is going to have to use it if he doesn’t want to be trapped along the inside. Joseph Talamo has the mount.
In gate two is Indian Winter, a grade I-placed son of Indian Charlie. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the colt broke his maiden going six furlongs at Del Mar last August. He then finished in a dead-heat for third in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) behind J P’s Gusto and Jaycito. Given a bit of a break, he returned to the races in the San Pedro Stakes on January 17th at Santa Anita, where he closed desperately to win the 6-1/2 furlong race by a half-length. However, in the Turf Paradise Derby, his two-turn debut, he finished third beaten four lengths by Beer Meister. However, due to a disqualification of the second-place finisher, Indian Winter was placed second. Interestingly, that second-place finisher was Twice the Appeal, who came back to win the Sunland Derby (gr. III) in impressive fashion. Time will tell if Indian Winter can be successful around two turns, but I think that he is a live longshot here. Patrick Valenzuela will ride.
Mr. Commons is the next horse. A son of Artie Schiller, the promising colt is trained by John Shirreffs and will be ridden by Mike Smith, the same pair that teamed up to win the 2005 Kentucky Derby with Giacamo, the 2007 Santa Anita Derby with Tiago, and sixteen prestigious stakes’ races with the incredible Zenyatta. Mr. Commons finished sixth in his debut over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track. His next start came on the 6-1/2 furlong downhill turf course at Santa Anita, where at 6-1 he drew clear of his rivals to win the race by 5 ½ lengths. His third start proved that he could succeed around two turns, for in a one-mile allowance race over the main track at Santa Anita, the colt defeated Hollywood Heist and Chiloquin in a three-way photo finish. The final time was a sharp 1:34 4/5. Time will tell if he has the talent to defeat a field of this caliber, but I believe that he is capable of doing it.
Silver Medallion is the fourth horse in the field. A son of Badge of Silver, he had been competing with mild success on turf, performing well enough to win the one-mile Eddie Logan Stakes over that surface at Santa Anita by a half-length. However, he ran the best race of his life in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) over Golden Gate’s Tapeta surface, wearing down Comma to the Top and Jakesam to win the mile and an eighth race by 1 ¼ lengths. Although this will be his first start on dirt, he certainly looks capable of succeeding over the surface based on his recent superb workouts at Santa Anita. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the colt will be ridden by Garrett Gomez.
This brings us to Comma to the Top, the only grade I winner that remains in the field. He is one of the veterans in the field, with twelve starts under his belt already. Trained by Peter Miller, the gelded son of Bwana Charlie got very good late last year, sweeping to five consecutive victories from October to December, culminating with a stunning triumph in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) over J P’s Gusto, Clubhouse Ride, and Gourmet Dinner. However, his two starts in 2011 have yielded a pair of fourth place finishes in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) and the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II). However, in the San Felipe, he helped set a blazing pace of :21 3/5 and :44 2/5. Understandably, he tired in the stretch to finish fourth, but he was beaten only 1 ¾ lengths for second. With less early speed in today’s race, he could get a much better trip and rebound with a sharp win. Corey Nakatani has the mount.
Midnight Interlude is the next horse. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of War Chant has never competed in anything other than maiden special weight races, but will attempt to become Baffert’s sixth Santa Anita Derby winner. The colt ran third in his debut at Santa Anita going six furlongs, then ran second in a one-mile event. He broke his maiden last time out, drawing away under Joel Rosario to win a one-mile event by 8 ½ lengths. Like Mr. Commons, he must still prove that he can compete at this level of competition, but he looks very talented. Victor Espinoza will ride.
Quail Hill has drawn gate seven. One of the longer shots in the field, the son of Candy Ride required four starts to break his maiden, finally doing so while going six furlongs on the turf at Santa Anita. His next start came in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, where he was sent off at 68.60-1. Despite these extremely long odds, he rallied well to finish third, beaten 4 ¼ lengths. I would have thought that this performance would drop his odds in his next start, but in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) he was sent off at 76.10-1. In a ten horse field, he finished a distant fifth but was not too far out of second. I believe that he could potentially hit the board at a huge price.
Skipping over Premier Pegasus, we come to Anthony’s Cross. A son of Indian Charlie, the colt lost his first three races at a variety of distances and surfaces before winning a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 2 ½ lengths. His next start came in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), where he finished a distant third behind Tapizar and Clubhouse Ride. In his next start, the grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes, the addition of blinkers enabled Anthony’s Cross to turn in a vastly superior performance to his previous efforts, holding off Riveting Reason to win the race by a nose in 1:48 3/5. He has been working brilliantly for this race, with his most recent breeze being five furlongs in :59 1/5. If he is not fit and ready to run his best race, I don’t know why not. Trained by Eoin Harty, leading rider of the meet Joel Rosario has the mount.
Finally, we come to Bench Points, a horse that I think is a bit overlooked here. A gelded son of Benchmark, he is trained by the little-known trainer Tim Yakteen. He won his first four starts sprinting, including a pair of state-restricted stakes races at Del Mar last summer. In his 2011 debut, he rallied furiously to defeat heavy favorite Da Ruler in a six furlong allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park. Tried in a route race for the first time, he rallied late in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) to finish third, beaten just 1 ¼ lengths for second. With top rider Rafael Bejarano in the saddle, I believe that this colt is capable of winning impressively.
After a great deal of thought, my picks for this race are:
1 Silver Medallion
2 Bench Points
3 Mr. Commons
4 Comma to the Top
5 Anthony’s Cross
6 Indian Winter
7 Quail Hill
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Offlee Wild Boys
This race is very difficult to handicap indeed, and I really hate to place Anthony’s Cross and Indian Winter as low as I did. But I’m confident that Silver Medallion is capable of winning this race and launching himself to the top of the Kentucky Derby picture.
J.R.’s picks are a bit different. He feels that Comma to the Top will get an easy lead and kick away at the top of the stretch to win the race by several lengths. He does not like Bench Point’s chances, as he considers him to be nothing more than a sprinter.
His picks are:
1 Comma to the Top
2 Anthony’s Cross
3 Silver Medallion
4 Quail Hill
5 Mr. Commons
6 Indian Winter
7 Bench Points
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Offlee Wild Boys
J.R. is going to have to do some serious handicapping this weekend in order to make up some ground in the standings of our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest, in which I have a large lead. We’ll see what happens!
You can watch the Santa Anita Derby at www.drf.com. Here’s the link:
http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-derby-day?utm_source=DRF.com&utm_medium=Special%2BCoverage&utm_campaign=Santa%2BAnita%2BDerby
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Unlike in past posts, I will not be posting my thoughts on the other great races here in this short section of an already lengthy post. They deserve better than that! Instead, I shall be posting my thoughts and picks throughout the day, as well as posting the results of the races as they are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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