1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Breezed on April 12th for the first time since the Florida Derby, working a half-mile in :49.90 at Palm Meadows Training Center. He is scheduled to have just one more breeze before the Kentucky Derby.
2. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Amazingly, this colt has inherited my number two spot. I really don't know if I should have him up this high, but he turned in a blazing :58 1/5 five furlong workout on April 9th at Gulfstream Park, so here is where he stays for the time being.
3. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I believe that this colt is going to run a huge race in the Arkansas Derby. His last workout was brilliant, he's got Calvin Borel in the saddle, and with a little luck he might just win. And he's going to need a little luck to secure the graded earnings necassary to make the Kentucky Derby field.
4. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
As the odds-on favorite, he was supposed to win the Wood Memorial by ten lengths. Unfortunately, he grabbed a quarter at the start of the race and wound up third behind Toby's Corner and Arthur's Tale. Now he has a GI infection. But as long as he gets over these setbacks and trains well up to the Derby, he'll remain in my top five.
5. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
This colt ran the race of his life in the Wood Memorial, rallying furiously in deep stretch to catch Uncle Mo and Arthur's Tale. All of a sudden, he is back in the Derby picture. He wore blinkers for the first time in the Wood, which perhaps explains his sudden step up in ability.
6. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
He has drawn gate three in the Arkansas Derby, where he is the 7-5 morning line favorite. He’s proven that he can go two turns, but now he must prove that he can go a mile and an eighth without tiring.
7. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
He is the 3-1 morning line favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes, where he has drawn gate three. But it’s a wide open race, and if he wins I doubt it will be by much. I would just like to see him move forward; to see him staying on to the finish.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Was forced to miss the Santa Anita Derby due to a foot bruise which seems to have cleared up now. The Lexington Stakes (gr. III) two weeks before the Derby is likely to be his next start.
9. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
He was hugely impressive in the Santa Anita Derby, racing wide throughout and altering his course in the stretch before catching Comma to the Top in the shadow of the wire. But he was unraced at age two -- and no horse has won the Derby without racing at two since Apollo in 1882.
10. Pants On Fire - Trained by Kelly Breen
He hasn’t breezed since the Louisiana Derby, but I assume that he will work out soon. The main question is whether or not he is capable of rating farther off of the lead – for I don’t think that he has the speed and stamina to stay with The Factor early.
11. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
To remain a legitimate Derby contender – and to even make the Derby field – he’s going to have to run well in the Arkansas Derby. He has drawn gate four. Hopefully, he will relax better on Saturday than he did in the Tampa Bay Derby.
12. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
He has drawn the rail in the Arkansas Derby, which won’t be the easiest gate to break from. I would just like to see him run well -- not even win, necessarily, just run as well as he did in the Louisiana Derby.
13. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
He's likely going to need additional earnings to get into the Derby field, so a good performance in the Arkansas Derby is imperative.
14. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
He ran like he needed a race in the Santa Anita Derby, chasing the pace before tiring in the stretch to finish fourth. But it wasn't all that bad a performance, and I am still intrigued by him. If he trains well up to the Kentucky Derby, I wouldn't count him out.
15. Caleb's Posse - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel
He's one of six horses in my top twenty that are running in the Arkansas Derby. Whether or not he remains in my top twenty depends on if he can outrun the majority of the other five. He has drawn gate six, so he should be able to get a decent ground-saving trip.
16. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Roman
He's already arrived at Churchill Downs to prepare for the Derby. I'm still wondering what to make of his Florida Derby performance. It was certainly a career-best effort, but how much did the apparant speed bias at Gulfstream that day skew the results?
17. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
I'm still puzzling over his poor Florida Derby performance. I guess he just didn't care for having dirt kicked in his face, which is going to be hard to avoid in the Derby. But I'm keeping him on here based on the fine form that he has shown in the past.
18. Animal Kingdom - Trained by H. Motion
He's proven himself to be capable of succeeding on both polytrack and turf, but dirt is still a big question mark. How well he trains leading up to the Derby will be our only gauge of his potential ability to handle the surface.
19. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Shackleford, he too has already arrived at Churchill Downs. Both of them are certainly going to get a very good feel for the racetrack. But it's hard to like a horse that showed absolutely nothing in his final prep race.
20. Crimson China - Trained by H. Motion
He's one of three horses trained by Motion in my top twenty. The runner-up in the Rushaway Stakes, he has drawn gate eleven in the Blue Grass Stakes. If he runs well, he could very well make the Derby field.
Note: I had orginally placed Arthur's Tale in spot number 14, but after his splint injury I decided to remove him, even though he may still make the Belmont Stakes. I have also removed numerous other horses from the below lists, strictly because it is really too late for them to jump into the Triple Crown picture. Perhaps the Travers is ahead for some of them!
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Just Out of the Top
Alternation - He's drawn gate eight in the Arkansas Derby.
Anthony's Cross - Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby, but probably needed the race.
Astrology - Will likely skip the Derby and instead run in the Preakness.
Decisive Moment - He's at Churchill preparing for the Derby.
Joe Vann - Illinois Derby winner isn't nominated to the Triple Crown.
Joyful Victory - Fantasy Stakes winner will most likely run in the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby.
Mr Commons - Good third in the Santa Anita Derby, but graded earnings are a concern.
R Heat Lightning - Kentucky Oaks favorite would be in my top twenty if she was aiming for the Derby.
Sway Away - Drew gate five in the Arkansas Derby.
Twice the Appeal - Recently recorded his first breeze since the Sunland Derby.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - Beaten a neck when third in the Transylvania Stakes.
Bandbox - Breezed sharply recently; the Preakness isn't out of the question.
Cal Nation - Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Dance City - Drew gate nine in the Arkansas Derby.
J P's Gusto - Drew gate eleven in the Arkansas Derby.
J W Blue - Drew gate twelve in the Arkansas Derby.
Kathmanblu - Actually ran pretty well when third in the Ashland.
Queen'splatekitten - Drew gate twelve in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Wilkinson - Drew gate nine in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Clarke Lane - Wasn't entered in the Blue Grass.
Comma to the Top - Beaten a head in the Santa Anita Derby, it reaffirms that he doesn't want to go a mile and a quarter.
Crimson Knight - Wasn't flattered by Watch Me Go in the Illinois Derby.
Flashpoint - Finished a somewhat disappointing fourth in the Florida Derby.
Indian Winter - Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby.
Machen - He seems to be a cut below two turn stakes caliber.
Monzon - Not sure where he will run next.
Norman Asbjornson - Fourth in the Wood Memorial wasn't great.
Watch Me Go - Disappointing sixth in the Illinois Derby.
-Keelerman
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