It's a big day today at Aqueduct racetrack in New York, for today is the day of the $1,000,000 Wood Memorial (gr. I). It's a fabulous card, with four graded stakes races including the Carter Handicap (gr. I) for older horses. Here are my thoughts on the four races:
Comely Stakes (gr. III)
3yo Fillies, One Mile on the Main Track.
This race has drawn a fascinating field of seven sophomore fillies, led by the morning line favorite Ava K. The daughter of Dixie Union has won all three of her starts, the last being the one-mile and seventy yards Proud Puppy Stakes, which she won by three lengths. However, all of her victories have come in state-restricted races, and this is a major step up in class.
If Ava K. should falter, then expect Her Smile to be right there at the finish. The filly has made six start, winning three while placing twice. Last time out, she ran a close third in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs behind Wyomia and Devilish Lady. It was a very strong performance, and I believe that she is more than capable of winning this race.
R Holiday Mood is another logical contender based off of two consecutive victories. She is a stakes winner, having won the Out Ruled Stakes last time out, and has proven to be very gutsy indeed. Both of her wins have come by a neck. If she can secure a fairly easy lead, expect her to be tough to catch in the stretch.
My picks:
1 Her Smile
2 Ava K.
3 R Holiday Mood
Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III)
3yo, 7 Furlongs on the Main Track
I believe that this is J J's Lucky Train's race. The colt has proven to be very consistent, for he has finished worse than second only once. After finishing second in both the Count Fleet and Whirlaway Stakes, he defeated Bandbox by a neck in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. Bandbox came back to impressively win the Private Terms Stakes, and finishing third in the Count Fleet Stakes was Pants On Fire, who won the Louisiana Derby two starts later. So J J's Lucky Train has certainly been competing against some very good company!
Vengeful Wildcat and Buffum are two other obvious contenders. Vengeful Wildcat won the Tyro Stakes last year and finished second in the grade III Sapling Stakes on September 4th. He was given a lengthy break after that, returning to the races on March 5th to run a decent third in the Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes going six furlongs at Aqueduct.
Buffum broke his maiden in a sharp performance at Belmont Park in October last year, but has disappointed in two subsequent stakes tries. Seven furlongs may be his best distance, and I expect to see him perform better today.
Smoke It Right is undefeated in four starts, but all have come against lesser competition. Last time out, he won the six furlong Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He has a lot of talent, but I'm not sure if he's ready to compete at this level.
My picks:
1 J J's Lucky Train
2 Vengeful Wildcat
3 Smoke It Right
Carter Handicap (gr. I)
3yo+, 7 Furlongs on the Main Track
Four scratches, including the withdrawal of favored Calibrachoa, have left the field for the prestigious grade I sprint race with only eight runners. Apriority will likely be sent off as the favorite. Although he has never competed in a graded stakes race, he easily won a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race last time out at Gulfstream Park, missing the track record by just .03 seconds. Although this is a major step up in class, I believe that he will be a factor in the stretch.
Morning Line is another strong contender. Winner of the Hal's Hope Stakes earlier this year, he ran second in the grade I Donn Handicap (gr. I) last time out and may appreciate the shorter distance of today's race.
I also really like Yawanna Twist's chances. The colt finished second in the Illinois Derby last year before running a huge fourth in the Preakness Stakes. An extremely length break followed, as he did not race again in February of this year, when he ran in a seven furlong allowance optional claiming race at Aqueduct. He won impressively by 1 1/2 lengths in a sharp 1:21.92. A strong second in the nine furlong Kings Point Stakes sets him up for today's race. I believe that he will rally late for a top three finish.
My picks:
1 Apriority
2 Morning Line
3 Yawanna Twist
Wood Memorial (gr. I)
3yo, Nine Furlongs on the Main Track
This is Uncle Mo's race to lose. The heavy favorite for the Kentucky Derby next month, he is undefeated in four starts. He's got tactical speed. He's the two-year-old champion. He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. If he loses, it would be a simply tremendous upset.
None of the others contenders can match his raw talent. None of them have ever earned a Beyer speed figure as good as Uncle Mo's lowest figure. The morning line second choice is coming off of a third-place finish in a grade III stakes race. There are some quality horses lined up to face the champion, but to be perfectly honest, I would be surprised if Uncle Mo doesn't win in a hand ride by ten lengths.
For second? I like Toby's Corner, winner of the Whirlaway Stakes and third in the Gotham (gr. III). He will be wearing blinkers today and should be coming strongly late. Norman Asbjornson put up a game fight at huge odds in the Gotham, finishing second behind Stay Thirsty, but time will tell if he can repeat that performance.
Starship Caesar finished last in the Gotham, but his previous performances merit at least a brief glance by handicappers playing the superfecta. If he rebounds, he could earn a sizable piece of the purse.
My picks:
1 Uncle Mo
2 Toby's Corner
3 Norman Asbjornson
4 Starship Caesar
5 Arthur's Tale
6 Duca
7 Isn't He Perfect
8 Preachintothedevil
9 Son of Posse
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Uncle Mo
2 Starship Caesar
3 Toby's Corner
4 Arthur's Tale
5 Norman Asbjornson
6 Duca
7 Preachintothedevil
8 Isn't He Perfect
9 Son of Posse
J.R. picked Starship Caesar to win the Gotham Stakes last month, and isn't about to drop him after one poor performance. He is confident that the gelding will come on late to be "best of the rest", but feels that Uncle Mo is simply unbeatable here.
I will be posting the results of these race as they are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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