Sunday, April 03, 2011

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- April 2nd, 2011

The first of the final Kentucky Derby prep races were run last weekend. They were the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III), and the Sunland Derby (gr. III)

All were won in upset fashion, launching many new Derby contenders into the picture.

Pants On Fire, Nehro, Twice the Appeal, and Animal Kingdom all turned in marvelous performances that were not expected. Pants On Fire and Nehro completed a monster-sized exacta payoff in the Louisiana Derby. Animal Kingdom was the second choice in the Spiral, but the ease at which he won was not expected. Twice the Appeal wore down Astrology to win the Sunland Derby at the impossible odds of 25-1.

Here are recaps of all the best racing action from last weekend.

LOUISIANA DERBY (gr. II)

As mentioned before, Pants On Fire and Nehro completed a monstrous exacta in the Louisiana Derby, crossing the wire 1-2 while separated by a neck at odds of 6-1 and 36-1. A $2 exacta paid $459.

Pants On Fire turned in a remarkable performance indeed. Running as a coupled entry with his more heralded stablemate Nacho Business, the colt was sent up to run on the outside in second under rider Rosie Napravnik. The pair set a moderate pace, with Nehro racing third along the rail and heavily favored Mucho Macho Man fourth on the outside.

Approaching the homestretch, Pants On Fire took the lead from longshot Liondrive and kicked clear. But Mucho Macho Man and Nehro were closing in. Mucho Macho Man drew even at the eighth pole, but was unable to sustain his bid. Then Nehro started closing rapidly along the inside. But Pants On Fire held on at the finish, closing his final eighth in a sharp :12.68 to win the $1,000,000 race. Nehro finished a half-length clear of Mucho Macho Man, who finished third despite losing a shoe at the start of the race.

Elite Alex, the second choice, closed from far back in last to finish fourth. He ran his last three-eighths of a mile in roughly :35 seconds, which is very impressive. He and Nehro will run in the Arkansas Derby a couple of weeks from now in order to try and secure the necessary graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field.

The complete order of finish was:

1 Pants On Fire
2 Nehro
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Elite Alex
5 Machen
6 Wilkinson
7 Left
8 Nacho Business
9 Majestic Harbor
10 Le Mans
11 Mavericking
12 Liondrive

My picks were:

1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Elite Alex
3 Machen
4 Nacho Business

And J.R.’s picks were:

1 Nehro
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Majestic Harbor
4 Elite Alex

VINERY SPIRAL STAKES (gr. III)

Animal Kingdom and Decisive Moment ran terrific races in the Vinery Spiral Stakes. Unfortunately, heavily favored Positive Response did not.

One must give a great deal of credit to Animal Kingdom, who has never finished worse than second in four starts and has proven to be a very talented runner. But I believe that Decisive Moment ran the best race.

Quickest out of the gate were Decisive Moment and Positive Response, and both colts were sent to the lead. However, they were not alone. Son of Posse and Preachintothedevil were right there with them.

The opening quarter mile was run in :23.57, with Positive Response on the lead by a length. Decisive Moment was sitting in third, pressing the hot pace while four wide. That is not at all an easy thing to do.

Where was Animal Kingdom? Dead last, 6 ¼ lengths off the lead.

The first half-mile was run in an extremely testing :46.56. Positive Response was still on the lead, but Decisive Moment was poised to take the lead at any moment.

Suddenly, things began to change rapidly. Positive Response began to tire. Decisive Moment and Son of Posse took over the lead. Animal Kingdom was gearing up for his late run.

Into the homestretch Decisive Moment kicked clear of Son of Posse and opened up a decisive lead. But Animal Kingdom was bearing down on the outside; his sights set on victory. The two staged a thrilling duel down the homestretch, with Animal Kingdom eventually getting the upper hand and drawing away to a 2 ¾ length triumph. The final time was 1:52.32.

True, Decisive Moment was fairly beaten. But he nearly overcame the impossible – that is, setting a fast pace while wide and winning the race. Finishing second after that kind of a trip is no easy feat!

Interestingly, Decisive Moment is already at Churchill Downs preparing for the Kentucky Derby.

Here are the complete results:

1 Animal Kingdom
2 Decisive Moment
3 Twinspired
4 Beachcombing
5 Taptowne
6 Preachintothedevil
7 Son of Posse
8 Positive Response
9 Thirtyfirststreet
10 Glint
11 Rescind the Trade

My picks were:

1 Positive Response
2 Decisive Moment
3 Animal Kingdom
4 Taptowne

And J.R.’s picks were:

1 Positive Response
2 Rescind the Trade
3 Thirtyfirststreet
4 Animal Kingdom

SUNLAND DERBY (gr. III)

Twice the Appeal had no chance in the Sunland Derby. He was 25-1. Yet, somehow, he managed to wear down Astrology in deep stretch to win the $800,000 event by 1 ½ lengths. In doing so, he stamped himself as a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender.

Reserved off the pace in the early stages, he made a bold run after a half mile to reach contention with three-eighths of a mile to go. He confronted Astrology at the top of the stretch and the two engaged in a thrilling duel. But it was obvious passing the eighth pole that Twice the Appeal had the upper hand. He drew off in the final strides to win decisively under Christian Santiago Reyes.

The full results were:

1 Twice the Appeal
2 Astrology
3 Ruler On Ice
4 It’s My Party
5 Beer Meister
6 Nacho Saint
7 Fusa Code
8 R Skydiver
9 Supreme Ruler
10 Behold de Buy
11 Sinai

My picks were:

1 Sinai
2 Astrology
3 Beer Meister
4 Nacho Saint

And J.R.’s picks were:

1 Nacho Saint
2 Sinai
3 Astrology
4 Supreme Ruler

HANSEL STAKES

Ghost Is Clear, coming off of a dismal performance in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, rebounded nicely as the favorite in the Hansel Stakes at Turfway Park. Far off of the pace in the early going, he rallied furiously in the final strides to win the six furlong event by a neck in 1:10.78.

The complete results were:

1 Ghost Is Clear
2 Philippe
3 Getaway Guy
4 Banjammer
5 Devil Train
6 Gonna Tell Momma
7 Chasing Moonlight
8 Big Albert
9 Murjan

My picks were:

1 Philippe
2 Chasing Moonlight
3 Getaway Guy
4 Ghost Is Clear

And J.R.’s picks were:

1 Chasing Moonlight
2 Ghost Is Clear
3 Philippe
4 Murjan

OTHER RACE RESULTS

March 26th

• The six furlong Prima Donna at Oaklawn went almost exactly as expected. Odds-on favorite Gran Lioness went straight to the lead and held off all challengers to win the event by 1 ¼ lengths. Second choice Garnet Crystals ran on well for second, finishing seven lengths clear of third choice Lady Giacamo. The final time was 1:11.01. Gran Lioness, who set a fairly quick pace, still managed to close her final eighth in :12.70.

• Turfway Park’s Bourbonette Stakes (gr. III) turned out what looks like a serious Kentucky Oaks candidate. Summer Soiree, the 3-2 favorite, went to the lead and drew off in the stretch to win by 10 ¾ impressive lengths. She was never really challenged, and stopped the clock for the one-mile event in 1:38.75. Harlan’s Ruby ran second.

• Bind, who broke his maiden with a triple-figure Beyer speed figure, made his second career start in a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds. Sent off at 1-10, he was rank in the early going while three to four wide. He took the lead around the far turn and led by 1 ½ lengths passing the eighth pole. Then he lost. Prime Cut, the second choice at 5.60-1, wore him down in deep stretch to win the race by three-quarters of a length. He stopped the clock in 1:41.20, just a fifth of a second off the track record set in 1936. Wow!

• The Rushaway Stakes, a mile and a sixteenth stakes race at Turfway Park on the undercard of the Spiral Stakes, just may turn out a Triple Crown contender or two. Swift Warrior, sent off as the second choice, went straight to the lead and kicked clear in the stretch to win the race in 1:45.73. Crimson China, the favorite, came from far, far back to finish second, beaten two lengths after trailing Swift Warrior by six passing the eighth pole.

March 27th

• Arienza, a daughter of 2002 Horse of the Year Azeri, was the 1-2 favorite in a one-mile allowance optional claiming event at Oaklawn. Sent straight to the lead, she never looked back en route to a decisive 2 ½ length victory. She wo with great ease, and closed her final eighth in a remarkable :12.19. It appears as though stakes victories could be in her future.

March 31st

• A one-mile allowance race at Oaklawn Park yielded interesting results. Commander, third behind Alternation and Elite Alex in an allowance optional claiming race in January, won the event in impressive fashion. Boxed in with nowhere to go on the far turn, he extracted himself from traffic under Calvin Borel to win the race by three-quarters of a length in 1:38.22.

April 2nd

• R Heat Lightning stamped herself as the likely favorite for the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) next month when she drew off under a hand ride to win the Florida Oaks (gr. II) by 8 ¼ lengths. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez, she was caught very wide on the first turn, but it didn’t affect her performance whatsoever! Island Sand finished second, followed by Salary Time. The previously undefeated It’s Tricky finished third.

-Keelerman

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