When one is attempting to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby, one considers many factors. Beyer speed figures, tactical speed, and proven form over the Churchill Downs main track are just some of those factors.
With all of the recent talk about Uncle Mo, Dialed In, The Factor, Toby's Corner, and Midnight Interlude, it can be easy to forget some of the lesser Derby contenders. One horse that I feel has not received the credit he deserves is Santiva.
Santiva has many merits that warrant his inclusion in everyone's lists of Derby contenders.
• He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last year on the Churchill Downs main track.
• He has some decent tactical speed, which should enable him to get good position in the Kentucky Derby.
• His pedigree should carry him classic distances, being by Giant’s Causeway out of Slide.
Another factor which makes me think that Santiva is a true Derby contender was the way in which he won the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall. After racing three wide all the way around the far turn, he entered the homestretch with two very good horses—Astrology and Major Gain—challenging him on both sides. Passing the eighth pole, he had his head narrowly in front. But Astrology was on his outside bidding for the lead, and Major Gain was along the rail only a neck behind. It would have been perfectly understandable if he had given way to finish third. But instead, he dug in and refused to be beaten, drawing back off to win by a half-length while closing his final sixteenth of a mile in :6.37.
Santiva has never run a bad race. In five starts, he has never finished worse than third. In his first start, he ran third behind Wine Police and Soldat in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. Behind him was Joe Vann, who won the Illinois Derby (gr. III) last Saturday.
His second start he ran second to J B’s Thunder in a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight on the turf at Saratoga. Never far off the lead, he closed some ground late to finish a strong second.
His next race came in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland. Despite the fact that he had never before won a race, and that he had never raced over a synthetic track before, he was well liked at 6-1. Far off of the early pace, he closed strongly in the stretch but had to settle for second, four lengths behind J B’s Thunder.
His fourth race was the above-mentioned Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which he won. Put away for winter, he returned on February 19th at Fair Grounds for the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). The fourth choice in a field of ten, he raced very wide on both turns but still came home gamely to be beaten just a length and a half by top Derby contender Mucho Macho Man. Many lengths behind Santiva in sixth was Pants On Fire, who returned to win the Louisiana Derby (gr. II).
Next Saturday, Santiva will compete in the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). It will be his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. He has already performed well over Keeneland’s synthetic main track, for the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity was at Keeneland. So we know that he can handle the surface. Even if he wins the Blue Grass, it’s possible that he could enter the Kentucky Derby at odds of 10-1, or perhaps even 15-1. But to be perfectly honest, I believe that he deserves to be one of the favorites.
-Keelerman
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