Saturday, April 30, 2011

J.R.'S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP TEN ---- April 21st, 2011

1. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
He'll have no workouts at Churchill Downs, but it shouldn't matter. This colt has an unbelievable amount of talent and should get a decent trip in the Derby.

2. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
He'll love the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby, and he seems to be the kind of horse that would like slop too. He's improving with every start and is training nicely.

3. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Sharp workout at Churchill, but was it too fast? You want them training nicely, but not too nicely. I have the feeling that this colt is sitting on a big race, though.

4. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He'll get a good trip, that's for sure. He's got the early speed, and he's rateable. Hopefully he'll be able to draft in behind the early leaders.

5. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
I'm thinking that this colt will offer a decent price, and he may be better than most think. He got a rotten trip in the Spiral, and seems to like Churchill Downs. Hmm. . .

6. Master of Hounds - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
Garrett Gomez has been named to ride this colt. He's scheduled to arrive at Churchill on Tuesday. It will be nearly impossible to gauge how he'll take to the dirt, but he's already proven at 1 3/16th miles.

7. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
He's arrived at Churchill Downs, but I wasn't impressed by his final workout and feel that he will have too much ground to close in the final quarter mile. But then again, Zito knows how to win the Derby.

8. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
Sharp breeze recently at Churchill signals that he's training well, but I won't know what to think of him for sure until after his final breeze.

9. Brilliant Speed - Trained by Tom Albertrani
The big question: can he carry his fine synthetic & turf form over to dirt? That question will remain unanswered until Derby day. But he's got the talent, that's for sure.

10. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His first workout since the Wood was encouraging, but I'd like to see him show a bit more in his final workout tomorrow morning. If he goes, you know, :59 and change then I'll toss his Wood performance and say that he's over his troubles.

-J.R.

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