The final major Kentucky Derby prep races are being run today – the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I) and the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Among the horses running in those two races are current Derby favorite The Factor, the promising Elite Alex and Nehro, proven contender Santiva, and a host of other budding stars.
Today’s feature race shall be the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, in which The Factor attempts to prove that he can succeed going a mile and an eighth.
FEATURE RACE: Arkansas Derby (gr. I)
$1,000,000 Purse/Nine Furlongs/Oaklawn Park Main Track
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Nehro (5-1)
2 Elite Alex (8-1)
3 The Factor (7-5)
4 Brethren (10-1)
5 Sway Away (6-1)
6 Caleb’s Posse (10-1, coupled with Alternation)
7 Truman’s Commander (30-1)
8 Alternation (10-1, coupled with Caleb’s Posse)
9 Dance City (15-1)
10 Archarcharch (12-1)
11 J P’s Gusto (15-1)
12 J W Blue (30-1)
13 Saratoga Red (30-1)
Drawing the rail is Nehro, a lightly raced son of Mineshaft who has shown a great deal of promise in his first four starts. He ran poorly in his first two starts, finishing fourth and tenth, but turned into a different horse in his third start. Sent off at 15-1 in a one-mile maiden special weight, he rocketed from ten lengths off the pace with a half-mile to go, to win by an impressive 4 ½ lengths. He was then entered in the $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby (gr. II), which was a major step-up in class. A major longshot at 36-1, he ran a huge race to finish second, beaten only a neck by Pants On Fire. If he runs that well again today, he can win. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.
Elite Alex has drawn gate two. A son of Afleet Alex, he has shown a great deal of promise and will likely be among the favorites here. Trained by Tim Ritchey, he broke his maiden by three-quarters of a length going five furlongs last July. But he was put away after that, and did not race or breeze again until late October. He returned to the races in January of this year, and ran an amazing second to Alternation in an allowance optional claiming race despite stumbling badly at the start. In the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), he closed from far back to finish third, beaten about two lengths by Archarcharch. In his most recent start, the Louisiana Derby, he closed from fifteen lengths behind to finish fourth, beaten 4 ¼ lengths. But don’t expect to see him that far back today. He will be wearing blinkers for the first time, and he is expected to be quite a bit closer to the pace this time around. If he gets a good trip, he could very well win. Calvin Borel will ride.
This brings us to the brilliant The Factor, the morning line favorite. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of War Front has unbelievable speed. He broke his maiden at Santa Anita Park second time out in December of last year, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight by 8 ¼ lengths. . . in 1:06 4/5. He displayed equally impressive speed in the San Vicente Stakes, which he won by three-quarters of a length in 1:20 1/5. But he had yet to prove that he could succeed around two turns.
Fast forward to the mile and a sixteenth Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park. The Factor was the mild favorite, but he ran like he was 1-20. He broke quickly and went straight to the lead. No one got within two lengths of him, as he kicked away in the stretch to win by 6 ¼ lengths in a sharp 1:42 flat. He has been breezing well since then for this race, but he still must prove one thing – that he can handle early pressure and still hang on to win. In the Rebel Stakes, he was the lone speed. Today, at least two and perhaps more horses will be challenging him for the early lead. If he can win this afternoon, he will head to Louisville as the heavy Kentucky Derby favorite. Martin Garcia will ride.
Brethren has drawn gate four. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Distorted Humor swept to victories in his first three starts: a maiden special weight, an allowance race, and the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III). In the latter, he drew off powerfully in the stretch to win by 4 ½ lengths. These impressive performances earned him the status as the 1-2 favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II). However, he never really settled in that race, and ended up finishing third behind Watch Me Go and Crimson Knight. But he has been training brilliantly up to this race, and will be wearing blinkers for the first time. I expect a much improved performance from the colt, who is a half-brother to last year’s Derby winner Super Saver. Ramon Dominguez has the mount.
The next horse in the field is Sway Away, who will probably be the third or fourth choice in the field. A son of Afleet Alex, the colt showed great promise in two starts as a juvenile, breaking his maiden impressively and finishing second in the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II). But a setback apparently occurred after that, for he did not race again until the February of this year when he ran in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II). Far off of a quick early pace, he closed furiously in deep stretch but fell three-quarters of a length short of catching The Factor. That performance earned him the status as second choice in the Rebel Stakes, where he would meet The Factor again. However, the colt ran a disappointing sixth of nine and never reached contention. But it was discovered after the race that he had lost a tooth at some point during the running, so it may be best to just forget about the performance altogether. Trained by Jeff Bonde, the colt will be wearing blinkers for the first time. Patrick Valenzuela will ride
Caleb’s Posse has drawn gate six. A son of Posse, he is one of the more heavily-raced horses in the field with nine starts. A stakes winner at two, the bay colt impressively won the Smarty Jones Stakes over this track in January. But in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), a horrible trip ensued and he finished a non-threatening sixth. Sent off at nearly 25-1 in the Rebel, he managed to run a strong second despite a less-than-ideal trip. Trained by Donnie Von Hemel, if he gets a decent trip today he could pull off the upset. E Razo Jr. has the mount.
Truman’s Commander is an intriguing longshot. He made three starts as a juvenile, running fourth twice and third once. The son of Friends Lake was then put away for the year, returning on March 6th to compete in a one-mile maiden special weight. He ran huge, powering away in the stretch to win by six lengths. He has a lot going for him here – he is trained by Nick Zito, he has a couple of recent sharp workouts, he’s making his second start off of a layoff, etc. etc. I wouldn’t count him out. Israel Ocampa has the mount.
This brings us to Alternation. A son of Distorted Humor, he has won three of his four starts, and brings a three-race winning streak into this race. He defeated Elite Alex in an allowance optional claiming race earlier this year, and then defeated older horses in his most recent start. Although he was entered in the Rebel Stakes, he pitched a fit in the gate and was scratched by the track veterinarian. But it apparently wasn’t a big deal, for he’s back to try and stamp his ticket to the Derby this afternoon. He will likely have to win in order to secure the necessary graded earnings, however. Trained by Donnie Vom Hemel, he will be ridden by L. Quinonez.
Next up is the promising Dance City. A son of City Zip, the speedy colt broke his maiden in an impressive performance second time out, winning a nine-furlong sloppy-track maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Sent off as a mile longshot in his most recent race, a one-mile allowance race, he set the pace before losing the lead at the eighth pole. However, he did not finish second. He did not finish third. Instead, he came back on to defeat heavy favorite Cal Nation by a nose. It’s hard to say if he is capable of defeating a quality field such as this one, but expect him to be right there turning for home. He has been training sharply for this race, and you never know what trainer Todd Pletcher has up his sleeve. Javier Castellano has the mount.
Archarcharch has drawn gate ten. A son of (who else!) Arch, the colt showed a great deal of promise when he broke his maiden in a stakes race, the six-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes. However, when sent off as the even-money favorite in the Smarty Jones Stakes, he finished a dismal fourth behind Caleb’s Posse. But he rebounded sharply at 14-1 on the Southwest Stakes, kicking away at the top of the stretch and holding off J P’s Gusto to win the race by a length. He ran just as well in the Rebel Stakes, finishing third while beaten only a neck for second after being rank in the early going. If he can relax and get to the rail today, he may just have the talent to win. Trained by William Fires, Jon Court will ride.
J P’s Gusto has drawn gate eleven. He is the veteran of the field, with ten starts and numerous graded stakes wins under his belt. He won the Del Mar Futurity last year (gr. I) and ran second in both the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). In his 2011 debut, he ran a strong second to Archarcharch in the Southwest. However, despite being well-bet in the Rebel Stakes, he ran a dull seventh. It’s difficult to say why he ran so poorly, but it’s probably best to just ignore the performance and judge him off of his previous performances. Trained by Joe Petalino, the son of Successful Appeal will be wearing blinkers for the first time and may press the pace in the early going. M. Berry has the mount.
This brings us to J W Blue, who will probably be one of, if not the, longest shot in the field. Trained by Anthony Dutrow, the son of Sky Mesa has developed a pattern in his racing performances – lose one by a huge margin, win one, lose one by a huge margin, etc. etc. He was beaten by over eleven lengths in his first start, a one-mile maiden special weight, but rebounded to win a similar event by a length. In his third start, he ran fourth beaten about ten lengths in an allowance optional claiming race. He then won an allowance race by 1 ½ lengths. Last time out, he ran fifth beaten eight lengths in the Rebel Stakes. However, it can be argued that the Rebel was actually his best performance to date, for he was only beaten 1 ¾ lengths for second. I believe that he may outrun his odds this afternoon. He will be ridden by J. Rocco Jr.
Finally, we come to Saratoga Red. A son of Eddington, the colt has only made two starts thus far. But they have been impressive. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the colt broke his maiden by a neck over Zoebear, who recently ran second in the Illinois Derby. He then ran in the Rebel Stakes, where at odds of 34.70-1 he ran fourth, beaten 7 ¾ lengths. But it was actually a very good performance. He chased the quick early pace set by The Factor and held on well to be beaten only 1 ½ lengths for second. Although he is facing a very difficult task, I wouldn’t count him out of hitting the board.
Now, this is a very difficult race to handicap. For the win, I have considered Nehro, Elite Alex, The Factor, Brethren, Caleb’s Posse, Truman’s Commander, Alternation, and Archarcharch. This is just an extremely evenly matched field! Obviously, if The Factor runs like he did in the Rebel, he will be very tough to beat. But I see him receiving more early pressure today, and I believe that he will tire in the final sixteenth to lose the race.
As for the others:
Nehro – May bounce off of his Louisiana Derby effort.
Elite Alex – Will the blinkers soften his late kick?
Brethren – Needs to show a great deal more than he has in the past.
Caleb’s Posse – Does he have the talent?
Truman’s Commander – I have a gut feeling that he may run well.
Alternation – Hasn’t raced in about two months.
Archarcharch – Does he have the talent?
Many questions will be answered today, and many of these quality horses will be shut out of the Kentucky Derby if they don’t finish in the top two. This is a pick-a-number-and-hope-for-the-best race.
Thus, my picks:
1 Caleb’s Posse
2 Elite Alex
3 The Factor
4 Truman’s Commander
5 Nehro
6 J W Blue
7 Brethren
8 Archarcharch
9 J P’s Gusto
10 Alternation
11 Sway Away
12 Saratoga Red
13 Dance City
To be perfectly honest, I have absolutely no idea how this race will unfold. Chances are, one of the top contenders will run poorly. And chances are, a longshot will rally for a major piece of the purse. But I’m confident that Caleb’s Posse will run a great race if he gets a good trip. But he must defeat The Factor – and that’s easier said than done.
J.R. is also quite puzzled by this race. So he decided to toss the favorites altogether and go with a longshot – that longshot being Truman’s Commander. We both really like this colt, but he is a bit bolder than I am when handicapping races, and is willing to take a chance with a 30-1 shot.
His complete selections are:
1 Truman’s Commander
2 Nehro
3 Archarcharch
4 Elite Alex
5 Brethren
6 The Factor
7 J W Blue
8 Caleb’s Posse
9 J P’s Gusto
10 Alternation
11 Sway Away
12 Dance City
13 Saratoga Red
Now, as much as J.R. likes Elite Alex for the Kentucky Derby, he doesn’t believe that the colt will run better than fourth here. If Elite Alex does not finish in the top two, then he will likely miss the Kentucky Derby due to insufficient earnings. So although J.R. likes Elite Alex, he doesn’t think that he will make the Derby.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Unfortunately, this post is already extremely lengthy (2500+ words). Although I originally intended to make this post rather short, I got so into writing it that it ended up a bit long. Therefore, rather than discuss all of the fabulous racing action going on today right here, I shall post my thoughts and picks throughout the day in a variety of shorter posts. I will also be posting the results of the races as they are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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