ILLINOIS DERBY AND ASHLAND STAKES ANALYSIS

The Illinois Derby (gr. III) and Ashland Stakes (gr. I) are both coming up shortly. Here are my quick picks and thoughts:

Illinois Derby

To be perfectly honest, this isn't the strongest field in the history of the Illinois Derby. Only one graded stakes winner is in the field, that being Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go.

I have selected Joe Vann to win. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the colt lost his first five races before shipping to Laurel Park for a one-mile maiden special weight, which he won by four. He followed up that performance with a 5 1/2 length victory in an allowance optional claiming race, also at Laurel. He will have to turn in the performance of his life to win this race, but if he gets an easy lead I believe that he can stay on to win.

Watch Me Go is the obvious pick after defeating Crimson Knight and the highly regarded Brethren in the Tampa Bay Derby. However, I believe that he is a vulnerable favorite and can be beaten here.

I am also intrigued by Zoebear, who has yet to win a race from five starts but ran second to the very promising Duca in his last start. In a race which lacks a clear favorite, I believe that he can hit the board.

My picks:

1 Joe Vann
2 Watch Me Go
3 Sour

J.R.'s picks:

1 Zoebear
2 The Fed Eased
3 Watch Me Go

Ashland Stakes (gr. I)

Although Kathmanblu is likely going to be the heavy favorite, I believe that she can be upset. My pick is Wyomia, who ran strongly in the Suncoast Stakes in her 2011 debut and should be even sharper today. She already has a graded stakes win over a synthetic track, too.

Kathmanblu has stakes victories on dirt and turf, but has never tried synthetics. She is versatile, and will probably handle it just fine, but I believe that she can be beaten.

Delightful Mary is could also be a serious contender. She ran third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) and won the OBS Championship Stakes (Filly Division) in her 2011 debut. If she takes to the synthetic track, she can win.

My picks:

1 Wyomia
2 Kathmanblu
3 Delightful Mary

-Keelerman