With slightly less than four weeks until the Kentucky Derby, here are J.R.'s thoughts on his top choices:
1. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I don't care if he wins or loses the Arkansas Derby. As long as he finishes first or second, it will put him right on track for Louisville.
2. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
Time to recognize that this isn't a second tier colt. He won the Wood Memorial despite a traffic-filled trip. This colt is the real deal.
3. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
I really don't like the fact that he missed the Santa Anita Derby, but I still think that his pedigree can pull him through. The Lexington will tell us more.
4. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
I doubt that he'll lose the Arkansas Derby. He'll probably win by a couple of lengths. But I still don't know if he can run a mile and a quarter.
5. Caleb's Posse - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel
This colt is seriously overlooked. A 1-2 finish in the Arkansas Derby will move him up my list.
6. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
The Arkansas Derby will tell us if this colt is a serious Derby contender. With his pedigree, I'd say that if he doesn't win the Derby he could win the Belmont Stakes.
7. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
Overcame a bad rail at Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby to be beaten a neck. We'll see if he can handle 'Alex and 'Factor.
8. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
The lost shoe probably cost him the Louisiana Derby, but we'll never know for sure. He had a nice breeze recently, and as long as he trains well up to the Derby he'll remain a serious contender.
9. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
I don't like the fact that he barely caught a 68-1 shot in the Florida Derby. He's going to have to close better if he is to win the Derby.
10. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
Santa Anita Derby victory was visually impressive, but he broke his maiden in March and has the dreaded Apollo curse hanging over his head.
-J.R.
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