Thursday, April 14, 2011

J.R.'S DERBY TOP TEN ---- April 12th, 2011

With slightly less than four weeks until the Kentucky Derby, here are J.R.'s thoughts on his top choices:
1. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey

I don't care if he wins or loses the Arkansas Derby. As long as he finishes first or second, it will put him right on track for Louisville.

2. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion

Time to recognize that this isn't a second tier colt. He won the Wood Memorial despite a traffic-filled trip. This colt is the real deal.

3. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert

I really don't like the fact that he missed the Santa Anita Derby, but I still think that his pedigree can pull him through. The Lexington will tell us more.

4. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert

I doubt that he'll lose the Arkansas Derby. He'll probably win by a couple of lengths. But I still don't know if he can run a mile and a quarter.

5. Caleb's Posse - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel

This colt is seriously overlooked. A 1-2 finish in the Arkansas Derby will move him up my list.

6. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires

The Arkansas Derby will tell us if this colt is a serious Derby contender. With his pedigree, I'd say that if he doesn't win the Derby he could win the Belmont Stakes.

7. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen

Overcame a bad rail at Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby to be beaten a neck. We'll see if he can handle 'Alex and 'Factor.

8. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo

The lost shoe probably cost him the Louisiana Derby, but we'll never know for sure. He had a nice breeze recently, and as long as he trains well up to the Derby he'll remain a serious contender.

9. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito

I don't like the fact that he barely caught a 68-1 shot in the Florida Derby. He's going to have to close better if he is to win the Derby.

10. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert

Santa Anita Derby victory was visually impressive, but he broke his maiden in March and has the dreaded Apollo curse hanging over his head.

-J.R.

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