(Note: Because it is only a week before the Kentucky Derby, I've decided to shorten my "Top Twenty" into a "Top Ten." This is also my final Top Ten prior to the Kentucky Derby. Enjoy!)
1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Arrived at Churchill Downs this morning, along with fellow Derby contender Soldat. Recorded his final breeze for the Derby on April 28th, working a half-mile in a sharp :48 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center. He'll be ready.
2. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He's been training exceptionally well, and I have the feeling that he is peaking at the right time. As long as draws a good post position in the Derby, he should be able to relax just a few lengths off of a moderate early pace and finish well. If he gets the lead at the top of the stretch, he'll be tough to beat.
3. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
It's difficult to choose between this colt and Nehro for the third spot; but I'm putting Archarcharch here because of his marvelous breeze on April 29th at Churchill Downs. He should be ready to run the race of his life on the first Saturday in May.
4. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
You've got to love the way he was closing furiously in the Arkansas Derby, and his solid five-furlong breeze at Churchill Downs in the slop suggests that an off track will not be an issue. He is scheduled to record his final breeze on Monday.
5. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Breezed for the first time since the Wood Memorial on April 26th, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 4/5. He seems to be recovering nicely from his GI infection, but it will be hard to say just how well he’s improved until he breezes tomorrow morning.
6. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
One week before the Derby – and he hasn’t breezed since the Wood Memorial. He’s scheduled to work tomorrow at Fair Hill, then ship to Churchill on Tuesday. An unorthodox training schedule, yes, but I’m sure it’s best for him.
7. Pants On Fire - Trained by Kelly Breen
He’s arrived at Churchill Downs and is scheduled to record his final breeze tomorrow morning. It should tell us a great deal more about what kind of form he’s in right now; whether or not he’s improving. I’m looking forward to it.
8. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
Breezed six furlongs in a good 1:13 3/5 at Churchill Downs on April 26th. He is expected to record one more workout prior to the Derby, on Monday. He’ll have to overcome a lot of history, but he may just be talented enough to do so.
9. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Roman
He breezed a simply brilliant five furlongs this morning at Churchill Downs, working five furlongs in :58 4/5. Perhaps he did benefit from a speed-favoring track in the Florida Derby – but this colt may just be getting good at the right time.
10. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
I've got the funny feeling that this colt is going to run better than anyone expects -- he's done nothing wrong, and has been training extremely well at Churchill Downs for almost a month now. His runner-up performance in the Spiral wasn't bad at all, and he may just run a winning race on the first Saturday in May.
-Keelerman
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