J.R.'S TOP TEN ---- April 22nd, 2011

1. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion

Inherits the top spot from Elite Alex, who disappointed in the Arkansas Derby. This colt has quite the late kick, and I believe that he has the speed to stay about mid-pack early.

2. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen

He was charging like few horses can in the Arkansas Derby, cutting down Archarcharch with every giant stride. He should be able to adapt to any pace setup in the Derby.

3. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires

Arkansas Derby triumph makes him as serious a contender as any other. I love the way that he kicked clear in the stretch. He may have more acceleration than many of his rivals.

4. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo

He's arrived at Churchill now, and has continued to train well. I'm positive that he can win at a mile and a quarter, and he has the speed to get himself in a good spot early on.

5. Master of Hounds - Trained by Aidan O'Brien

With the American three-year-olds looking pretty unimpressive, he's got as good a chance at any. Whether he can handle dirt, however, remains a big question.

6. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito

Now that The Factor and Uncle Mo have disappointed, his chances of winning the Derby have improved. But I still doubt that he'll be able to rally through traffic in time to win.

7. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert

Doubt that a horse that didn't race at two will win the Derby, but his Santa Anita Derby victory was sharp.

8. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen

Gets another chance at the graded earnings in the Lexington Stakes. May be better on synthetics than dirt, but I give him at chance at winning the Derby.

9. Brilliant Speed - Trained by Tom Albertrani

Closed his final three eighths in about :34 3/5 when winning the Blue Grass. That's incredibly fast. If his form translates to dirt, which it may not, he will be dangerous at Churchill.

10. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias

I'm thinking that this colt will offer a decent price, and he may be better than most think. He got a rotten trip in the Spiral, and seems to like Churchill Downs. Hmm. . .


-J.R.