1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
To win the Florida Derby over a speed-favoring track like he did is quite simply mind boggling. This colt is legitimate -- and thus, he returns to the top of my list.
2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Has drawn gate five in the Wood Memorial. To be perfectly honest, I can't see him losing. But hopefully, he will have to at least work a bit for the victory. At the very least, I would like to see him have to negotiate his way through traffic.
3. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Kwon Cho
Breezed a sharp five furlongs in :59 1/5 in preparation for the upcoming Santa Anita Derby, in which he has drawn gate eight. If he can come anywhere near repeating his brilliant San Felipe victory, it should secure him the victory.
4. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
The waiting game has begun with this colt. No more races prior to the Kentucky Derby -- just waiting and breezing. Not much to say about him until his next workout.
5. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
In his first workout since the Rebel, he went six furlongs in a quick 1:11 2/5 on April 4th at Santa Anita Park. The Arkansas Derby will tell us a great deal more about his ability. I would like to see him pushed through a very fast pace -- to see if he can win going nine furlongs after setting a :45 and change half mile. If he can, then Uncle Mo had better be ready in Louisville.
6. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
Worked a brilliant six furlongs in 1:11 3/5 from the gate this morning at Oaklawn Park. He wore blinkers during the workout, equipment that he has never raced in. I really hope that he picks up enough graded earnings in the Arkansas Derby to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby, for I truly feel that he is capable of winning the Derby.
7. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Unfortunately, he has drawn the extreme outside in the Santa Anita Derby. Perhaps he can overcome it, for he should be sharper this time around than he was in the San Felipe. But it's not going to help his chances at all.
8. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
I really have no idea what to think of this colt. He was a very good juvenile, and ran arguably his best race ever in the Risen Star. He should only keep improving. The Blue Grass should tell us a great deal more.
9. Pants On Fire – Trained by Kelly Breen
Like Mucho Macho Man, there won't be much to say about this colt until he makes his next start. Rosie Napravnik will retain the mount in the Kentucky Derby.
10. Silver Medallion – Trained by Steve Asmussen
He has been working well at Santa Anita in preparation for the Santa Anita Derby. He has drawn gate four, which should be just fine. We'll see how he compares to Premier Pegasus and Jaycito.
11. Brethren – Trained by Todd Pletcher
Breezed a sharp five furlongs in :59.90 on April 4th at Palm Meadows. Hopefully, he will perform better in the Arkansas Derby than he did in the Tampa Bay Derby. I haven't given up on him yet.
12. Anthony’s Cross - Trained by Eoin Harty
Drew gate nine in the Santa Anita Derby. It's going to be a tough race to win, and he will probably have to run even better on Saturday then he did when winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. If he runs 1-2, I will likely move him up a few spots.
13. Nehro – Trained by Steven Asmussen
To go from winning a maiden special weight to being beaten a neck in the Louisiana Derby is a huge accomplishment. It will be interesting to see how well he performs in the Arkansas Derby against The Factor. It could potentially enable us to gauge how the Louisiana colts stack up against the Arkansas colts.
14. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
Although he did manage to run third in the Florida Derby, once again, he just couldn't offer a response turning for home. I'm beginning to think that he has quite simply regressed off of his brilliant two-year-old form. But then again, the Kentucky Derby will be his third start off a layoff, which usually signals a good performance.
15. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Breezed six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 on April 5th at Oaklawn Park. A lot is riding on his performance in the Arkansas Derby. He probably has the graded earnings to make the Derby field. But whether or not he is a legitimate contender will depend on how he performs in his final prep race.
16. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Finished an extremely disappointing fifth in the Florida Derby as the mild favorite. Why did he run so poorly? It could have been a number of things. He was several lengths off of the pace over a speed-favoring track for one thing. And maybe he didn't like having dirt kicked back in his face. But it's never good to see a horse run that poorly in their final Derby prep race.
17. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Roman
One must give him credit -- he ran a tremendous race at 68-1 in the Florida Derby. Being beaten only a nose is nothing to sneeze at. But he did it over a speed-favoring track, which perhaps skewed the results a bit.
17. Animal Kingdom – Trained by H. Motion
This colt is bred to be a turf horse. He has been training on turf courses. He had been racing on turf courses up until the Spiral. Hopefully, he will prove as good on dirt as he is on turf and synthetics.
18. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Maybe he had a bad day. Maybe the blinkers were a mistake. But whatever the reason, he ran badly in the Florida Derby, finishing seventh. It's probably wise to judge him by his previous performances and hope that he rebounds in the Kentucky Derby.
19. Bench Points - Trained by Tim Yakteen
I have the suspicion that this colt is going to run huge in the Santa Anita Derby. Despite the fact that he ran a good third in the San Felipe, he seems to be a bit overlooked. He has been working sharply and could potentially pull off an astonishing upset if he gets a good trip.
20. Decisive Moment – Trained by Juan Arias
Interestingly, he is already at Churchill Downs preparing for the Kentucky Derby. I see this as a great thing. He is going to be very familiar with the track come Derby day, and -- just perhaps -- it could enable him to pull off something shocking on the first Saturday in May.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Just Out of the Top
Alternation - Arkansas Derby isn't out of the question.
Astrology - Second place finish in the Sunland Derby was a fairly good performance.
Clarke Lane - Blue Grass Stakes may be next.
Crimson China - Blue Grass Stakes may be next.
Indian Winter - Drew gate two in the Santa Anita Derby.
Kathmanblu - Drew gate six in the Ashland Stakes.
Mr Commons - Drew gate three in the Santa Anita Derby.
R Heat Lightning – Ran huge in the Gulfstream Oaks.
Sway Away - Arkansas Derby is next.
Toby's Corner - Drew gate two in the Wood Memorial.
Twice the Appeal - Shocking upset in the Sunland Derby launches him into the picture.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - Drew gate six in the Transylvania.
Bandbox - Private Terms victory was accomplished with great ease.
Beamer - Wondering where he will race next.
Caleb's Posse – Very impressed by his strong second in the Rebel.
Cal Nation – Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Congo - Hasn't done anything in a while.
Crimson Knight - Fought hard in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Dance City – Victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream over Cal Nation and Bowman’s Causeway was quite impressive.
J J's Lucky Train – Drew gate three in the Bay Shore.
J W Blue - Wondering where he will race next.
Norman Asbjornson – Drew gate eight in the Wood Memorial.
Positive Response - Hugely disappointing in the Spiral.
Queen'splatekitten - Blue Grass Stakes may be next.
Watch Me Go - Drew gate four in the Illinois Derby.
Wilkinson - Very disappointing in the Louisiana Derby.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Adirondack Express - Broke his maiden on March 12th at Tampa Bay Downs.
Arch Traveler - Very disappointing in the Florida Derby.
Awesome Patriot – Wondering where he will race next.
Beer Meister – Wondering where he will race next.
Casper's Touch – Drew the rail in a Keeneland allowance race.
Comma to the Top - Drew gate five in the Santa Anita Derby.
Eminent Tale - Quite impressed by his Sweet Envoy Stakes victory.
Flashpoint - Finished a somewhat disappointing fourth in the Florida Derby.
J P's Gusto – Arkansas Derby is next.
Machen - Disappointing in the Louisiana Derby.
Monzon - Hasn't breezed in a while now.
Runflatout - Wondering where he will race next.
San Pablo - Broke his maiden on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth.
-Keelerman
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