Here are the entries and post positions for the $750,000 West Virginia Derby (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Mountaineer Casino Racetrack & Resort. The nine-furlong race has drawn a large field of ten, led by last year's Eclipse champion two-year-old Hansen, Louisiana Derby (gr. II) winner Hero of Order, Pegasus Stakes (gr. III) winner Le Bernardin, and the graded stakes-placed Macho Macho.
1 Macho Bull
2 Hero of Order
3 Z Camelot
4 Macho Macho
5 Morgan's Guerrilla
6 Called to Serve
7 Le Bernardin
8 Bourbon Courage
9 Hansen
10 Penn's Grant
-Keelerman
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
The Juveniles at Saratoga -- July 29-30th, 2012
Three more juvenile races were run at Saratoga over the last two days, including the first turf sprint. Surprisingly, trainer Todd Pletcher had only one entrant, but it turned out to be a good one.
July 29th
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight
6 furlongs for New York-bred 2yos
Seven horses went to post, with second-time starter Awesome Weekend the odds-on favorite for trainer Gary Contessa. The colt lived up to expectations, settling into third place early on behind fractions of :22.61 and :46.11 and gamely wearing down Comandante to win the race by two lengths in 1:11.15. Comandante ran very well, setting the pace and putting up a good fight in the stretch before winding up second best by a clear margin. Can't Catch Me Now raced in third for much of the race and couldn't make an impact on the top two, but was 6 1/2 lengths clear of the fourth-place finisher, Thingamajigger.
July 30th
Race 3: Maiden Claiming
5-1/2 furlongs for 2yos
The Roofer was favored off of third- and second-place finishes in his first two starts -- both in maiden special weight company -- and figured to be a major contender for trainer Wesley Ward while dropping in class. But while the colt showed speed from the start, running the opening quarter mile in :22.15, he tired a good deal in the homestretch and wound up finishing fourth, seven lengths behind the victorious Fly Bye Pomeroy. The latter colt encountered just a bit of traffic down the backstretch and around the turn, but found racing room along the rail and burst clear of the field in the homestretch to win in clever fashion. Zaccheus turned in a good rally on the far outside to secure second, making up 2 1/2 lengths on the winner inside the final furlong. Brother Bob received a perfect trip, racing in fourth while tracking a speed duel, but drifted in during the stretch run and flattened out to finish third.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight
5-1/2 furlongs on turf for 2yo fillies
Todd Pletcher's lone juvenile runner during the last two days was Top Tier Lass, who was sent off at about 6-1 but ran like a 3-5 shot. Under John Velazquez, the filly raced close to the pace while four-wide during the first couple furlongs of the race, then accelerated in good fashion around the turn to secure the lead. She then pulled away under a hand ride to win by seven lengths, stopping the clock in the good time of 1:03.34. Smithwithkitten rallied from last after a poor start to finish second, but was no match for the winner. Jane of All Trades encountered traffic in the homestretch but finished up with a good run to secure third. Being a daughter of Rock Hard Ten, I would expect her to improve with time and distance. Mariel N Kathy, Priscilla Marie, and Regal Joanne all vied for the lead through an opening quarter in :22 seconds, but all gave way to finish fifth, sixth, and eighth, respectively.
-Keelerman
July 29th
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight
6 furlongs for New York-bred 2yos
Seven horses went to post, with second-time starter Awesome Weekend the odds-on favorite for trainer Gary Contessa. The colt lived up to expectations, settling into third place early on behind fractions of :22.61 and :46.11 and gamely wearing down Comandante to win the race by two lengths in 1:11.15. Comandante ran very well, setting the pace and putting up a good fight in the stretch before winding up second best by a clear margin. Can't Catch Me Now raced in third for much of the race and couldn't make an impact on the top two, but was 6 1/2 lengths clear of the fourth-place finisher, Thingamajigger.
July 30th
Race 3: Maiden Claiming
5-1/2 furlongs for 2yos
The Roofer was favored off of third- and second-place finishes in his first two starts -- both in maiden special weight company -- and figured to be a major contender for trainer Wesley Ward while dropping in class. But while the colt showed speed from the start, running the opening quarter mile in :22.15, he tired a good deal in the homestretch and wound up finishing fourth, seven lengths behind the victorious Fly Bye Pomeroy. The latter colt encountered just a bit of traffic down the backstretch and around the turn, but found racing room along the rail and burst clear of the field in the homestretch to win in clever fashion. Zaccheus turned in a good rally on the far outside to secure second, making up 2 1/2 lengths on the winner inside the final furlong. Brother Bob received a perfect trip, racing in fourth while tracking a speed duel, but drifted in during the stretch run and flattened out to finish third.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight
5-1/2 furlongs on turf for 2yo fillies
Todd Pletcher's lone juvenile runner during the last two days was Top Tier Lass, who was sent off at about 6-1 but ran like a 3-5 shot. Under John Velazquez, the filly raced close to the pace while four-wide during the first couple furlongs of the race, then accelerated in good fashion around the turn to secure the lead. She then pulled away under a hand ride to win by seven lengths, stopping the clock in the good time of 1:03.34. Smithwithkitten rallied from last after a poor start to finish second, but was no match for the winner. Jane of All Trades encountered traffic in the homestretch but finished up with a good run to secure third. Being a daughter of Rock Hard Ten, I would expect her to improve with time and distance. Mariel N Kathy, Priscilla Marie, and Regal Joanne all vied for the lead through an opening quarter in :22 seconds, but all gave way to finish fifth, sixth, and eighth, respectively.
-Keelerman
Sunday, July 29, 2012
PAYNTER WINS THE HASKELL INVITATIONAL!
Favored Paynter took over the lead from pace-setting Gemologist around the far turn before drawing away to a convincing victory in the $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational (gr. I) at Monmouth Park, giving trainer Bob Baffert his third straight and sixth overall victory in the prestigious race.
Ridden to victory by Rafael Bejarano, Paynter was beaten to the lead in the nine-furlong race by Gemologist, who was making his first start since a sixteenth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). Thus, Gemologist found himself racing in second entering the first turn, about three-quarters of a length behind the leader and about a length clear of Handsome Mike, with Nonios also up close along the rail. Dullahan was also right in contention on the far outside, roughly three lengths from the lead, while Stealcase was the early trailer by a large margin following a poor start.
The pace was actually a moderate one, with Gemologist running the opening half-mile in :48 seconds flat. The positions remained virtually unchanged down the backstretch, the only modification being that Nonios moved up a bit along the rail to secure third position. However, rounding the far turn, Paynter moved up to take over the lead from Gemologist and then burst clear in the homestretch, opening up a decisive lead. Nonios put in a decent run to finish second, but was no match for the winner. Stealcase rallied for third, while Handsome Mike rounded out the superfecta.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Rafael Bejarano, Paynter was beaten to the lead in the nine-furlong race by Gemologist, who was making his first start since a sixteenth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). Thus, Gemologist found himself racing in second entering the first turn, about three-quarters of a length behind the leader and about a length clear of Handsome Mike, with Nonios also up close along the rail. Dullahan was also right in contention on the far outside, roughly three lengths from the lead, while Stealcase was the early trailer by a large margin following a poor start.
The pace was actually a moderate one, with Gemologist running the opening half-mile in :48 seconds flat. The positions remained virtually unchanged down the backstretch, the only modification being that Nonios moved up a bit along the rail to secure third position. However, rounding the far turn, Paynter moved up to take over the lead from Gemologist and then burst clear in the homestretch, opening up a decisive lead. Nonios put in a decent run to finish second, but was no match for the winner. Stealcase rallied for third, while Handsome Mike rounded out the superfecta.
-Keelerman
HASKELL INVITATIONAL ANALYSIS
The Triple Crown season is traditionally the time of year when the top three-year-olds compete in the classics and attempt to stamp themselves as the leader of the division. But the Triple Crown season only last half a year. The second half of the season begins with the running of the $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational (gr. I) at Monmouth Park, which is traditionally the spot where three-year-olds that didn't win a Triple Crown race attempt to stamp their credentials as the best among the sophomores. This year's renewal did not draw a Triple Crown race winner, what with I'll Have Another and Union Rags being out with injuries, but the race did drawn a number of highly-talented three-year-olds that could potentially compile championships credentials by the end of the year. Let's take a look at who's running!
Haskell Invitational (gr. I)
1 1/8th miles on the Monmouth Park dirt track
Entries:
The heavy favorite on the morning line at 3-2 is Bob Baffert's brilliant Paynter, who -- believe it or not -- is still seeking his first stakes victory. The son of Awesome Again began his career with an impressive victory in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight, then stepped up into graded stakes company and ran fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and second in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III). He then dropped into an allowance race at Pimlico and promptly dominated by 5 3/4 lengths before taking a shot at the prestigious Belmont Stakes (gr. I). After going straight to the lead and setting a slow pace, he appeared to be home free, but an opening along the rail allowed Union Rags to sneak through and steal the victory. This will be Paynter's first start since then, and he has been training unbelievably well for his return -- all four of his workouts since the Belmont have been bullets. Baffert's record in the Haskell is also terrific, for he has won the race on five occasions, including the last two years. Thus, Paynter appears to be a deserving favorite with an excellent chance at winning.
Dullahan and Gemologist are expected to be his main rivals. The first-mentioned colt is a two-time grade I winner on Polytrack, and the third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), but has never won a race on dirt. Last time out, he finished a dull seventh in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) without any obvious excuse, but a combination of factors, including pace, may have compromised his chances. Being a deep closer, the faster Paynter runs on the front end, the better Dullahan's chances will be.
As for Gemologist, he has won five of his six starts, including the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) over subsequent Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) winner Alpha, but he has not raced since finishing a distant sixteenth in the Kentucky Derby. A foot bruise, as well as a blazing early pace, were the most logical explanations for his poor showing. Since then, he has trained very well, and breezed a bullet five furlongs in :58 2/5 at Saratoga one week ago, signaling his readiness for a return. One thing he'll have to avoid is getting into a speed duel with Paynter, and potentially setting up the race for Dullahan, but the chances of that happening seem fairly remote, considering that Gemologist seems best as a pace-tracking type.
Nonios also deserves respect, given that he won the Affirmed Handicap (gr. III) in good fashion two starts back before closing a lot of ground against a loose-on-the-lead Baffert-trainee to finish second in the Swaps Stakes (gr. II). He has never raced on dirt, which is obviously a concern, but his sire was a Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) winner, and his broodmare sire won the Belmont Stakes. He does possess a strong late kick, which could certainly prove menacing if the early pace is quick enough. I guess it's just a question of whether or not he can transfer his synthetic form to dirt. If he can, he has the talent to win.
Stealcase has been keeping some pretty good company in recent races, finishing third in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) while just a neck behind Paynter and second in the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) behind subsequent Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Neck 'n Neck. So clearly, he has the talent to compete on the big stage; the only problem is that he hasn't really put it all together and won a major race yet. But with time, I think this colt could turn out to be something special. Maybe he won't contend for the victory today, but a good effort is certainly a strong possibility.
The last colt to discuss is Handsome Mike, racing for the same connections as Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner I'll Have Another. He ran moderately well in a quartet of graded stakes races last winter, including a third-place effort in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), but hasn't raced since finishing fourth in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park. He may be in a bit deep today, but he has certainly been training well and has the speed to contend from the start. Out-dueling Paynter for the early lead won't be easy, but if he were able to do so, he could potentially carry his speed a long way on the front end.
My selections are:
1 Paynter
4 Nonios
2 Gemologist
3 Stealcase
I conceive Paynter settling right off of the early lead, which could be set by Gemologist or Handsome Mike, before taking over around the far turn and drawing off for an impressive victory. Nonios should get a good ground-saving trip from gate one, and so long as he takes to the dirt, I expect him to finish up with a good run.
-Keelerman
Haskell Invitational (gr. I)
1 1/8th miles on the Monmouth Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Weight | Jockey | Trainer | M. L. Odds |
| 1 | Nonios | 118 | Corey Nakatani | Jerry Hollendorfer | 7-2 |
| 2 | Dullahan | 120 | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 3-1 |
| 3 | Paynter | 118 | Rafael Bejarano | Bob Baffert | 3-1 |
| 4 | Gemologist | 120 | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 3-1 |
| 5 | Handsome Mike | 118 | Mario Gutierrez | Doug O'Neill | 15-1 |
| 6 | Stealcase | 118 | Shaun Bridgmohan | Mark Casse | 8-1 |
The heavy favorite on the morning line at 3-2 is Bob Baffert's brilliant Paynter, who -- believe it or not -- is still seeking his first stakes victory. The son of Awesome Again began his career with an impressive victory in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight, then stepped up into graded stakes company and ran fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and second in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III). He then dropped into an allowance race at Pimlico and promptly dominated by 5 3/4 lengths before taking a shot at the prestigious Belmont Stakes (gr. I). After going straight to the lead and setting a slow pace, he appeared to be home free, but an opening along the rail allowed Union Rags to sneak through and steal the victory. This will be Paynter's first start since then, and he has been training unbelievably well for his return -- all four of his workouts since the Belmont have been bullets. Baffert's record in the Haskell is also terrific, for he has won the race on five occasions, including the last two years. Thus, Paynter appears to be a deserving favorite with an excellent chance at winning.
Dullahan and Gemologist are expected to be his main rivals. The first-mentioned colt is a two-time grade I winner on Polytrack, and the third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), but has never won a race on dirt. Last time out, he finished a dull seventh in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) without any obvious excuse, but a combination of factors, including pace, may have compromised his chances. Being a deep closer, the faster Paynter runs on the front end, the better Dullahan's chances will be.
As for Gemologist, he has won five of his six starts, including the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) over subsequent Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) winner Alpha, but he has not raced since finishing a distant sixteenth in the Kentucky Derby. A foot bruise, as well as a blazing early pace, were the most logical explanations for his poor showing. Since then, he has trained very well, and breezed a bullet five furlongs in :58 2/5 at Saratoga one week ago, signaling his readiness for a return. One thing he'll have to avoid is getting into a speed duel with Paynter, and potentially setting up the race for Dullahan, but the chances of that happening seem fairly remote, considering that Gemologist seems best as a pace-tracking type.
Nonios also deserves respect, given that he won the Affirmed Handicap (gr. III) in good fashion two starts back before closing a lot of ground against a loose-on-the-lead Baffert-trainee to finish second in the Swaps Stakes (gr. II). He has never raced on dirt, which is obviously a concern, but his sire was a Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) winner, and his broodmare sire won the Belmont Stakes. He does possess a strong late kick, which could certainly prove menacing if the early pace is quick enough. I guess it's just a question of whether or not he can transfer his synthetic form to dirt. If he can, he has the talent to win.
Stealcase has been keeping some pretty good company in recent races, finishing third in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) while just a neck behind Paynter and second in the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) behind subsequent Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Neck 'n Neck. So clearly, he has the talent to compete on the big stage; the only problem is that he hasn't really put it all together and won a major race yet. But with time, I think this colt could turn out to be something special. Maybe he won't contend for the victory today, but a good effort is certainly a strong possibility.
The last colt to discuss is Handsome Mike, racing for the same connections as Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner I'll Have Another. He ran moderately well in a quartet of graded stakes races last winter, including a third-place effort in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), but hasn't raced since finishing fourth in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park. He may be in a bit deep today, but he has certainly been training well and has the speed to contend from the start. Out-dueling Paynter for the early lead won't be easy, but if he were able to do so, he could potentially carry his speed a long way on the front end.
My selections are:
1 Paynter
4 Nonios
2 Gemologist
3 Stealcase
I conceive Paynter settling right off of the early lead, which could be set by Gemologist or Handsome Mike, before taking over around the far turn and drawing off for an impressive victory. Nonios should get a good ground-saving trip from gate one, and so long as he takes to the dirt, I expect him to finish up with a good run.
-Keelerman
SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- July 29th, 2012
The feature of the card is the $200,000 Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II), a 6-1/2 furlong sprint for three-year-olds. A local prep for the prestigious King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I), to be run here at Saratoga next month, the Amsterdam has been won in recent years by such terrific horses as Quality Road (2009), Discreetly Mine (2010), and Caleb's Posse (2011). The last two mentioned colts went on to win the King's Bishop, while Quality Road finished third in the Travers Stakes (gr. I) and went on to win a trio of grade Is during his four-year-old season. So clearly, the Amsterdam Stakes has been a "key race" in recent years, and might actually warrant a promotion to grade I status sometime in the future. But that's beside the point. For the moment, let's take a look at the strong field that has been entered in this year's renewal of the race.
The morning line favorite at 5-2 is Currency Swap, who won the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) here at Saratoga last year, in addition to a maiden special weight. He went to the sidelines with an injury shortly thereafter, returning in March to finish second in an allowance race and eleventh in the Illinois Derby (gr. III). A return to sprinting yielded a sharp victory in the You and I Stakes, followed by a strong second to Trinniberg in the $400,000 Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II). Given his overall record, he deserves consideration as a win contender, but his 2-for-2 record at Saratoga makes his credentials even stronger.
But to win, he'll have to take down Fort Loudon. Picture this: Trinniberg beats Currency Swap in the Woody Stephens. Then Fort Loudon beats Trinniberg in the Carry Back Stakes (gr. III). By this logic, Fort Loudon would appear to be quite a bit superior to Currency Swap. Is he? Well, when Fort Loudon took down Trinniberg, he did it the hard way, pushing the heavy favorite through quick fractions before reeling him in at the finish. It was a truly stunning performance; one that fully showcased Fort Loudon's deadly combination of speed coupled with stamina. A repeat of that effort would bring Fort Loudon the victory here this afternoon. But here's the hitch -- Fort Loudon is 7-for-10 at Calder Race Course, where the Carry Back was held, and 0-for-4 elsewhere. Clearly, we are looking at a perfect example of a home-track specialist. Time will tell if Fort Loudon can successfully transfer his talent to other racetracks, but to date, he has even come close to doing so. Throw in the fact that he has breezed just once since the Carry Back, and you have a horse that may be a bit vulnerable while well-bet. He can will, but he'll have to be great in order to do so.
Another logical win contender is Doctor Chit, a Todd Pletcher-trainee that has won three straight races in impressive fashion. Last time out, he beat a good field in the Western Larla Stakes while running six furlongs in the blazing time of 1:08.90. He's got terrific speed, and can maintain it a long way. The only question is whether or not he will be up to handling the pace pressure that will surely come from Gun Boat. The latter colt is a super-talented Bob Baffert-trainee that shipped in from California to contest this race. Throughout his career, Gun Boat has shown truly brilliant flashes of early speed, but has been rating just off of the early pace as of late. However, the fact that he has drawn gate one may force jockey Joel Rosario to send the colt hard during the first furlong of the race -- setting up a potential speed duel with Doctor Chit.
As for the rest, Unbridled's Note disappointed in a pair of Derby preps at Oaklawn during the spring, but rebounded sharply to win a seven-furlong allowance race last time out; Politicallycorrect finished second in the Ohio Derby (gr. III) in his most recent start, and cuts back to what may a more favorable distance, but the winner of the Ohio Derby returned to fare poorly in yesterday's Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II); last of all, Laurie's Rocket has been a consistent sprinter in lower-level stakes, but was soundly beaten last time out in the Woody Stephens Stakes.
My selection is Currency Swap, given his perfect record at Saratoga, his back class, and his strong effort last time out. Fort Loudon is certainly a formidable opponent, and his Carry Back effort was among the most courageous performances I have ever seen a horse give. But his record away from Calder does leave me leery of his chances.
-Keelerman
The morning line favorite at 5-2 is Currency Swap, who won the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) here at Saratoga last year, in addition to a maiden special weight. He went to the sidelines with an injury shortly thereafter, returning in March to finish second in an allowance race and eleventh in the Illinois Derby (gr. III). A return to sprinting yielded a sharp victory in the You and I Stakes, followed by a strong second to Trinniberg in the $400,000 Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II). Given his overall record, he deserves consideration as a win contender, but his 2-for-2 record at Saratoga makes his credentials even stronger.
But to win, he'll have to take down Fort Loudon. Picture this: Trinniberg beats Currency Swap in the Woody Stephens. Then Fort Loudon beats Trinniberg in the Carry Back Stakes (gr. III). By this logic, Fort Loudon would appear to be quite a bit superior to Currency Swap. Is he? Well, when Fort Loudon took down Trinniberg, he did it the hard way, pushing the heavy favorite through quick fractions before reeling him in at the finish. It was a truly stunning performance; one that fully showcased Fort Loudon's deadly combination of speed coupled with stamina. A repeat of that effort would bring Fort Loudon the victory here this afternoon. But here's the hitch -- Fort Loudon is 7-for-10 at Calder Race Course, where the Carry Back was held, and 0-for-4 elsewhere. Clearly, we are looking at a perfect example of a home-track specialist. Time will tell if Fort Loudon can successfully transfer his talent to other racetracks, but to date, he has even come close to doing so. Throw in the fact that he has breezed just once since the Carry Back, and you have a horse that may be a bit vulnerable while well-bet. He can will, but he'll have to be great in order to do so.
Another logical win contender is Doctor Chit, a Todd Pletcher-trainee that has won three straight races in impressive fashion. Last time out, he beat a good field in the Western Larla Stakes while running six furlongs in the blazing time of 1:08.90. He's got terrific speed, and can maintain it a long way. The only question is whether or not he will be up to handling the pace pressure that will surely come from Gun Boat. The latter colt is a super-talented Bob Baffert-trainee that shipped in from California to contest this race. Throughout his career, Gun Boat has shown truly brilliant flashes of early speed, but has been rating just off of the early pace as of late. However, the fact that he has drawn gate one may force jockey Joel Rosario to send the colt hard during the first furlong of the race -- setting up a potential speed duel with Doctor Chit.
As for the rest, Unbridled's Note disappointed in a pair of Derby preps at Oaklawn during the spring, but rebounded sharply to win a seven-furlong allowance race last time out; Politicallycorrect finished second in the Ohio Derby (gr. III) in his most recent start, and cuts back to what may a more favorable distance, but the winner of the Ohio Derby returned to fare poorly in yesterday's Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II); last of all, Laurie's Rocket has been a consistent sprinter in lower-level stakes, but was soundly beaten last time out in the Woody Stephens Stakes.
My selection is Currency Swap, given his perfect record at Saratoga, his back class, and his strong effort last time out. Fort Loudon is certainly a formidable opponent, and his Carry Back effort was among the most courageous performances I have ever seen a horse give. But his record away from Calder does leave me leery of his chances.
-Keelerman
The Juveniles at Saratoga -- July 28th, 2012
Two more juvenile races, two more promising winners. Saturday's card may have been highlighted by the impressive graded stakes victories scored by Alpha and Winter Memories, but there were a couple of promising juveniles on the undercard that gave the impression of being fine runners themselves.
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight
1 1/16th miles (turf) for 2yos
The favorite was the highly-regarded Todd Pletcher-trainee Charming Kitten, a son of Kitten's Joy that was making his first start. He certainly lived up to expectations, as he tracked a slow pace of :24.87 and :51 flat before bursting clear in the homestretch to win the race by a decisive 1 3/4 lengths. His final sixteenth of a mile in :5.94 was especially impressive. Fire Guard, a first-time starter from the barn of Bill Mott, rallied strongly from ninth to give the impression of being a colt to watch in the future. Newfound Zapper also turned in a good rally from off the pace.
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight
6 furlongs for 2yos
One victory for the day wasn't enough for Pletcher. Roughly half an hour after Charming Kitten found his way to the winner's circle in race two, Pletcher sent out Lawn Man and Tizracer in the third race of the card. As it turned out, he almost went 1-2, as Lawn Man and Tizracer led the way through fractions of :22.66 and :46.26. Turning for home, Lawn Man put away his stablemate and drew off strongly throughout the homestretch, hitting the wire in front by 4 1/2 lengths while stopping the clock in 1:11.25. Pass the Pico and Honorable Dillon both put in decent runs from off the pace to secure second- and third-place, respectively, in a three-way photo over Tizracer.
-Keelerman
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight
1 1/16th miles (turf) for 2yos
The favorite was the highly-regarded Todd Pletcher-trainee Charming Kitten, a son of Kitten's Joy that was making his first start. He certainly lived up to expectations, as he tracked a slow pace of :24.87 and :51 flat before bursting clear in the homestretch to win the race by a decisive 1 3/4 lengths. His final sixteenth of a mile in :5.94 was especially impressive. Fire Guard, a first-time starter from the barn of Bill Mott, rallied strongly from ninth to give the impression of being a colt to watch in the future. Newfound Zapper also turned in a good rally from off the pace.
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight
6 furlongs for 2yos
One victory for the day wasn't enough for Pletcher. Roughly half an hour after Charming Kitten found his way to the winner's circle in race two, Pletcher sent out Lawn Man and Tizracer in the third race of the card. As it turned out, he almost went 1-2, as Lawn Man and Tizracer led the way through fractions of :22.66 and :46.26. Turning for home, Lawn Man put away his stablemate and drew off strongly throughout the homestretch, hitting the wire in front by 4 1/2 lengths while stopping the clock in 1:11.25. Pass the Pico and Honorable Dillon both put in decent runs from off the pace to secure second- and third-place, respectively, in a three-way photo over Tizracer.
-Keelerman
Saturday, July 28, 2012
BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- July 28th, 2012
The final Saturday of July may not be as jam-packed with graded stakes races as some of the other recent Saturdays, but the racing action today is by no means meek. Not only is there a "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile being held at Del Mar, there are also a pair of prestigious $600,000 stakes at Saratoga. We'll begin our analysis of the day's racing with the San Diego Handicap (gr. II) at Del Mar -- the "Win and You're In" for the Dirt Mile.
San Diego Handicap (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the Del Mar All Weather track
Entries:
This race seems to be a match-up of horses returning from injury. Of the seven runners in the race, three of them -- Take Control, John Scott, and Rail Trip -- are in the process of recovering from various ailments suffered over the years. Take Control broke his maiden in 2009, but didn't start again until last month, when he won an allowance race with a terrific late run for trainer Bob Baffert. John Scott broke his maiden, won the I'm Smokin Stakes, and finished fourth in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) as a juvenile in 2009 -- then didn't race again until April 2012. He has since won two allowance races. Rail Trip won the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I), and finished second in that race in 2010, but a prolonged trip to New York beginning toward the end of 2010 yielded no victories and several minor injuries. Given half a year off, he returned to the races in the Los Angelas Handicap (gr. III) at Hollywood Park and finished fourth, then ran second to John Scott in an allowance race.
Determining which of these three comebackers is best -- or even if they can beat their more seasoned rivals -- is not an easy task. Take Control, being from the barn of Bob Baffert, is probably ready for another terrific performance. And John Scott is certainly in good form as well, and could prove tough to beat. Rail Trip has more back class than either of them, but has not won a race since June 2010.
Perhaps none of them will win. After all, their rivals are formidable. Kettle Corn won the Native Diver Handicap (gr. III) last December and has been competing admirable well against the likes of Game On Dude and Richard's Kid. Tres Borrachos won this race last year with an impressive rally from off-the-pace, and his last race was better than it looked. Prayer for Relief won a trio of graded stakes races last year, and while he is winless in five starts this year, he has cracked the trifecta in four of them. And let's not forget about Mobilized, a talented sprinter that is stretching out after a good effort in the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I).
So who will win? Well, if you put the names of every runner in a hat and drew randomly, your chances of having picked the winner would be decent. I'm going to select Take Control, a horse that I have had my eye on ever since that debut victory way back in 2009. Now that Baffert has him sound, I think we could see some great things from this horse.
Other Races of Note
At Saratoga . . .
Two major graded stakes races are scheduled to be run at Saratoga this afternoon, those being the Diana Stakes (gr. I) and the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II). To read my analysis of those races, click here: http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/07/saratoga-stakes-analysis-july-28th-2012.html
At Penn National . . .
Race 5: Turf sprinters are the stars of the card, with the $200,000 Pennsylvania Governor's Cup Handicap the highlight of a ten-race card. Ben's Cat, an eleven-time stakes winner, is the morning line favorite as he bids to become a millionaire. The graded stakes-placed Great Mills and the promising Varsity are expected to give the favorite a run for the money, with the other seven runners all at 10-1 or higher on the morning line.
Race 7: The $175,000 Mountainview Handicap originally drew a field of eight, but three scratches have reduced the field to five. Toby's Corner, winner of the 2011 Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I), will be attempting to win his first race since then. Excelsior Stakes (gr. III) winner Marilyn's Guy and the talented stayer Not Abroad are other logical contenders for the victory.
***
Tomorrow, I shall post my thoughts on Sunday's races, which include the $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational (gr. I), as well as the showdown between The Factor and Amazombie in the Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I). Until then, enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
San Diego Handicap (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the Del Mar All Weather track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Kettle Corn | Garrett Gomez |
| 2 | Mobilized | Corey Nakatani |
| 3 | Tres Borrachos | Mike Smith |
| 4 | John Scott | Victor Espinoza |
| 5 | Take Control | Rafael Bejarano |
| 6 | Prayer for Relief | Joe Talamo |
| 7 | Rail Trip | Jose Valdivia, Jr. |
This race seems to be a match-up of horses returning from injury. Of the seven runners in the race, three of them -- Take Control, John Scott, and Rail Trip -- are in the process of recovering from various ailments suffered over the years. Take Control broke his maiden in 2009, but didn't start again until last month, when he won an allowance race with a terrific late run for trainer Bob Baffert. John Scott broke his maiden, won the I'm Smokin Stakes, and finished fourth in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) as a juvenile in 2009 -- then didn't race again until April 2012. He has since won two allowance races. Rail Trip won the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I), and finished second in that race in 2010, but a prolonged trip to New York beginning toward the end of 2010 yielded no victories and several minor injuries. Given half a year off, he returned to the races in the Los Angelas Handicap (gr. III) at Hollywood Park and finished fourth, then ran second to John Scott in an allowance race.
Determining which of these three comebackers is best -- or even if they can beat their more seasoned rivals -- is not an easy task. Take Control, being from the barn of Bob Baffert, is probably ready for another terrific performance. And John Scott is certainly in good form as well, and could prove tough to beat. Rail Trip has more back class than either of them, but has not won a race since June 2010.
Perhaps none of them will win. After all, their rivals are formidable. Kettle Corn won the Native Diver Handicap (gr. III) last December and has been competing admirable well against the likes of Game On Dude and Richard's Kid. Tres Borrachos won this race last year with an impressive rally from off-the-pace, and his last race was better than it looked. Prayer for Relief won a trio of graded stakes races last year, and while he is winless in five starts this year, he has cracked the trifecta in four of them. And let's not forget about Mobilized, a talented sprinter that is stretching out after a good effort in the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I).
So who will win? Well, if you put the names of every runner in a hat and drew randomly, your chances of having picked the winner would be decent. I'm going to select Take Control, a horse that I have had my eye on ever since that debut victory way back in 2009. Now that Baffert has him sound, I think we could see some great things from this horse.
Other Races of Note
At Saratoga . . .
Two major graded stakes races are scheduled to be run at Saratoga this afternoon, those being the Diana Stakes (gr. I) and the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II). To read my analysis of those races, click here: http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/07/saratoga-stakes-analysis-july-28th-2012.html
At Penn National . . .
Race 5: Turf sprinters are the stars of the card, with the $200,000 Pennsylvania Governor's Cup Handicap the highlight of a ten-race card. Ben's Cat, an eleven-time stakes winner, is the morning line favorite as he bids to become a millionaire. The graded stakes-placed Great Mills and the promising Varsity are expected to give the favorite a run for the money, with the other seven runners all at 10-1 or higher on the morning line.
Race 7: The $175,000 Mountainview Handicap originally drew a field of eight, but three scratches have reduced the field to five. Toby's Corner, winner of the 2011 Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I), will be attempting to win his first race since then. Excelsior Stakes (gr. III) winner Marilyn's Guy and the talented stayer Not Abroad are other logical contenders for the victory.
***
Tomorrow, I shall post my thoughts on Sunday's races, which include the $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational (gr. I), as well as the showdown between The Factor and Amazombie in the Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I). Until then, enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
ALPHA WINS THE JIM DANDY STAKES!
Making his first start since a dull effort in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), favored Alpha went straight to the lead and never looked back in the $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon at Saratoga,
Ridden to victory by Ramon Dominguez, Alpha got off to a quick start from post position one and went straight to the lead, setting slow fractions of :24.40 and :49.30 over a sloppy track while being tracked by Teeth of the Dog. Neck 'n Neck was right behind them in third, followed on the far outside by Prospective. Fast Falcon was along the rail in fifth, while Atigun, My Adonis, and Liaison, trailed the field.
The positions remained unchanged down the backstretch and around the far turn, with Alpha leading the way through three-quarters of a mile in 1:14.03. Turning for home, he still led the way, but Neck 'n Neck was putting in a good run on the outside and loomed a serious threat for the victory. However, Alpha had plenty left in the tank, and courageously turned back the challenge to win the Jim Dandy by two lengths, stopping the clock for nine furlongs in 1:50.47.
Neck 'n Neck finished much the best of the rest, while Liaison and Teeth of the Dog rounded out the superfecta. The winner is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and owned by Godolphin Racing.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Ramon Dominguez, Alpha got off to a quick start from post position one and went straight to the lead, setting slow fractions of :24.40 and :49.30 over a sloppy track while being tracked by Teeth of the Dog. Neck 'n Neck was right behind them in third, followed on the far outside by Prospective. Fast Falcon was along the rail in fifth, while Atigun, My Adonis, and Liaison, trailed the field.
The positions remained unchanged down the backstretch and around the far turn, with Alpha leading the way through three-quarters of a mile in 1:14.03. Turning for home, he still led the way, but Neck 'n Neck was putting in a good run on the outside and loomed a serious threat for the victory. However, Alpha had plenty left in the tank, and courageously turned back the challenge to win the Jim Dandy by two lengths, stopping the clock for nine furlongs in 1:50.47.
Neck 'n Neck finished much the best of the rest, while Liaison and Teeth of the Dog rounded out the superfecta. The winner is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and owned by Godolphin Racing.
-Keelerman
SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- July 28th, 2012
The Saturday card at Saratoga is a pretty spectacular one, with a pair of very prestigious graded stakes races scheduled to be run later this afternoon. Both carry purses of $600,000, and while one -- the Diana Stakes -- is a grade I race, the more anticipated event is the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) for three-year-olds, where Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) runner-up Alpha and Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) winner Neck 'n Neck set to face off against the up-and-coming Teeth of the Dog in an exciting prep for the Travers Stakes (gr. I) later this summer.
We'll begin our analysis with the Diana Stakes. Winter Memories is the morning line favorites based off of her stellar record of seven wins in eleven starts, including last year's Garden City Stakes (gr. I). But while she did win the Beaugay Stakes (gr. III) in impressive fashion in her first start of 2012, she could only manage a second-place effort last time out in the Just a Game Stakes (gr. I), in which Tapitsfly set a strong pace on the front end en route to a decisive 2 1/4-length victory.
Being a late closer, Winter Memories is always at the mercy of the early pace, and -- unfortunately for her -- there doesn't appear to be much speed in this race. This certainly bodes well for the chances of the above-mentioned Tapitsfly, who is back to try to add another grade I victory to her record. Trained by Dale Romans, the filly won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf way back in 2009, but has gotten better with age and seems to be just now reaching her peak. In her last start, she won the Just a Game Stakes as described above, and a repeat of that effort would make her difficult to beat today. Perhaps the nine-furlong distance of this race will be a bit much for her, but the way she finished at the end of the Just a Game left me with the impression that she could handle the added distance under the right circumstances.
Zagora, winner of this race last year, comes into today's race off of a strong victory in the Gallorette Handicap (gr. III) at Pimlico on May 19th, and has won three of her four starts overall this year. Her lone defeat came in Keeneland's Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I), where an extremely slow pace rendered Zagora's brilliant turn of foot practically useless. With Ramon Dominguez in the saddle, Zagora seems to have a decent shot at pulling off a repeat victory, but like Winter Memories, she will be at the mercy of the pace and may find Tapitsfly hard to run down.
Another filly that deserves respect is Hungry Island, who defeated Tapitsfly two starts back in the Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (gr. II). However, she could only manage a third-place finish last time out in the Just a Game Stakes, her late run compromised by Tapitsfly's brilliant performance. She is certainly eligible to rebound today, and it's worth noting that she won the Lake Placid Stakes (gr. II) here at Saratoga last year -- while defeating Winter Memories -- but she would likely need a career-best performance in order to run down Tapitsfly in this spot.
The last two fillies in the race are Law of the Range and Dream Peace, a pair of European shippers that could certainly make their presence felt. The first-mentioned filly has not been particularly competitive in group races across Europe, but possesses some early speed and could find herself setting a slow pace alongside Tapitsfly. Under those circumstances, she could have something left in the tank for the stretch run, but it's difficult to envision her winning the race. Dream Peace, however, is a group II winner in France and was beaten just a head in the E. P. Taylor Stakes (gr. I) last October at Woodbine. She has failed to crack the trifecta in two starts this year, but one of those was the Singapore Airlines International Cup (Gr-I) against males, in which she was beaten by -- among others -- the 2010 United Nations Stakes (gr. I) winner Chinchon. Dream Pace can turn in quite a late run under the right circumstances, and has proved that she can ship across the Atlantic and contend in a major North American race, but like most of the fillies in this race, she would need a sufficient early pace to set up her late run.
My selection is Tapitsfly, for I feel her speed gives her a tactical advantage in a race lacking front-runners. Winter Memories, Zagora, and Hungry Island all deserve respect based on their overall records, but they may find themselves with two much to do inside the final furlong, should Tapitsfly run back to her Just a Game effort. It's difficult to say for certain how good the European shippers are, but a victory by either would not be overly surprising.
Moving onward, we come to the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II). Alpha is the morning line favorite, thanks to the strong performances he turned in while winning the Withers Stakes (gr. III) and finishing second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) during the spring. He then finished a dull twelfth in the Kentucky Derby, undone by the large cheering crowd, and subsequently came down with a fever that forced him to miss the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). He will be entering this race off of a nearly three-month layoff, but he has been training exceptionally well for his return and will be a contender if he runs anywhere near his best.
Neck 'n Neck and Teeth of the Dog are other obvious contenders, as both are coming off of impressive victories in graded stakes races. The first-mentioned colt won the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) by 7 1/4 lengths last time out, and seems to be only now reaching his peak. Like Alpha, he has been training wonderfully, and a repeat of his last performance would put him right in the mix. His ability to stay within a few lengths of the early lead, coupled with his powerful finishing kick, is a potent combination that should allow him to adapt to any pace scenario.
As for Teeth of the Dog, he showed talent during the spring while finishing third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) and fifth in the Preakness (gr. I), but he has gotten even better as of late, culminating with a terrific victory in the Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) last time out. In that race, he helped set a strong pace of :22, :46 flat, and 1:09 4/5 before gamely turning back a late run from Fast Falcon to win by a neck. Assuming he doesn't get involved in another such speed duel, he has the ability to stalk the pace and finish with a strong burst of speed, and that ability could help him get the jump on the deep closers.
Liaison has had an interesting career. After winning the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Real Quiet Stakes as a juvenile, he disappointed in three consecutive Kentucky Derby prep races at Santa Anita, but hinted that a return to form was coming when he finished a decent sixth in the Derby itself. He then ran well in two graded stakes events at Betfair Hollywood Park, losing the Affirmed Handicap (gr. III) and Swaps Stakes (gr. II) by a combined 1 1/4 lengths. He has the class to suggest that he can contend, and his recent workouts have been exceptional, but the fact remains that all of his best efforts have come over Hollywood's Cushion Track, and he may not be quite as good on dirt.
Atigun is a somewhat surprising 8-1 on the morning line, despite the fact that he finished a strong third in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) last time out. Perhaps many feel that his performance that day was more the result of the long distance rather than his talent, but he did win a 1 1/16th miles allowance race on the Kentucky Derby undercard in strong enough fashion, and while it's true that this colt certainly does like distance, he may simply be an up-and-comer that could contend for the victory in shorter races thanks to his talent alone.
As for the rest, Fast Falcon finished second in both the Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) and Easy Goer Stakes to Teeth of the Dog, but the Nick Zito-trainee is unlikely to get the same terrific pace setup that he did in the Dwyer. Prospective has won a pair of graded stakes races, something none of his rivals have done, but it's difficult to say for sure if he is as good as some of the other runners here. Last of all, My Adonis won the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth Park last time out, but was tiriong badly at the finish despite not setting a particularly fast pace. Going another sixteenth of a mile farther today, while stepping up in class, he may find himself in deep waters when the closers come after him in the homestretch.
My fairly uncreative selection is Neck 'n Neck. With all due respect to Alpha, winning a race of this caliber off of a three-month layoff is not going to be easy. And while Teeth of the Dog is clearly a talented colt, I think Neck 'n Neck may simply be better. Liaison, too, deserves some serious respect, but until he hits the board in a major race on dirt, I will continue to view him as more of a Cushion Track-specialist.
-Keelerman
We'll begin our analysis with the Diana Stakes. Winter Memories is the morning line favorites based off of her stellar record of seven wins in eleven starts, including last year's Garden City Stakes (gr. I). But while she did win the Beaugay Stakes (gr. III) in impressive fashion in her first start of 2012, she could only manage a second-place effort last time out in the Just a Game Stakes (gr. I), in which Tapitsfly set a strong pace on the front end en route to a decisive 2 1/4-length victory.
Being a late closer, Winter Memories is always at the mercy of the early pace, and -- unfortunately for her -- there doesn't appear to be much speed in this race. This certainly bodes well for the chances of the above-mentioned Tapitsfly, who is back to try to add another grade I victory to her record. Trained by Dale Romans, the filly won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf way back in 2009, but has gotten better with age and seems to be just now reaching her peak. In her last start, she won the Just a Game Stakes as described above, and a repeat of that effort would make her difficult to beat today. Perhaps the nine-furlong distance of this race will be a bit much for her, but the way she finished at the end of the Just a Game left me with the impression that she could handle the added distance under the right circumstances.
Zagora, winner of this race last year, comes into today's race off of a strong victory in the Gallorette Handicap (gr. III) at Pimlico on May 19th, and has won three of her four starts overall this year. Her lone defeat came in Keeneland's Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I), where an extremely slow pace rendered Zagora's brilliant turn of foot practically useless. With Ramon Dominguez in the saddle, Zagora seems to have a decent shot at pulling off a repeat victory, but like Winter Memories, she will be at the mercy of the pace and may find Tapitsfly hard to run down.
Another filly that deserves respect is Hungry Island, who defeated Tapitsfly two starts back in the Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (gr. II). However, she could only manage a third-place finish last time out in the Just a Game Stakes, her late run compromised by Tapitsfly's brilliant performance. She is certainly eligible to rebound today, and it's worth noting that she won the Lake Placid Stakes (gr. II) here at Saratoga last year -- while defeating Winter Memories -- but she would likely need a career-best performance in order to run down Tapitsfly in this spot.
The last two fillies in the race are Law of the Range and Dream Peace, a pair of European shippers that could certainly make their presence felt. The first-mentioned filly has not been particularly competitive in group races across Europe, but possesses some early speed and could find herself setting a slow pace alongside Tapitsfly. Under those circumstances, she could have something left in the tank for the stretch run, but it's difficult to envision her winning the race. Dream Peace, however, is a group II winner in France and was beaten just a head in the E. P. Taylor Stakes (gr. I) last October at Woodbine. She has failed to crack the trifecta in two starts this year, but one of those was the Singapore Airlines International Cup (Gr-I) against males, in which she was beaten by -- among others -- the 2010 United Nations Stakes (gr. I) winner Chinchon. Dream Pace can turn in quite a late run under the right circumstances, and has proved that she can ship across the Atlantic and contend in a major North American race, but like most of the fillies in this race, she would need a sufficient early pace to set up her late run.
My selection is Tapitsfly, for I feel her speed gives her a tactical advantage in a race lacking front-runners. Winter Memories, Zagora, and Hungry Island all deserve respect based on their overall records, but they may find themselves with two much to do inside the final furlong, should Tapitsfly run back to her Just a Game effort. It's difficult to say for certain how good the European shippers are, but a victory by either would not be overly surprising.
Moving onward, we come to the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II). Alpha is the morning line favorite, thanks to the strong performances he turned in while winning the Withers Stakes (gr. III) and finishing second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) during the spring. He then finished a dull twelfth in the Kentucky Derby, undone by the large cheering crowd, and subsequently came down with a fever that forced him to miss the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). He will be entering this race off of a nearly three-month layoff, but he has been training exceptionally well for his return and will be a contender if he runs anywhere near his best.
Neck 'n Neck and Teeth of the Dog are other obvious contenders, as both are coming off of impressive victories in graded stakes races. The first-mentioned colt won the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) by 7 1/4 lengths last time out, and seems to be only now reaching his peak. Like Alpha, he has been training wonderfully, and a repeat of his last performance would put him right in the mix. His ability to stay within a few lengths of the early lead, coupled with his powerful finishing kick, is a potent combination that should allow him to adapt to any pace scenario.
As for Teeth of the Dog, he showed talent during the spring while finishing third in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) and fifth in the Preakness (gr. I), but he has gotten even better as of late, culminating with a terrific victory in the Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) last time out. In that race, he helped set a strong pace of :22, :46 flat, and 1:09 4/5 before gamely turning back a late run from Fast Falcon to win by a neck. Assuming he doesn't get involved in another such speed duel, he has the ability to stalk the pace and finish with a strong burst of speed, and that ability could help him get the jump on the deep closers.
Liaison has had an interesting career. After winning the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Real Quiet Stakes as a juvenile, he disappointed in three consecutive Kentucky Derby prep races at Santa Anita, but hinted that a return to form was coming when he finished a decent sixth in the Derby itself. He then ran well in two graded stakes events at Betfair Hollywood Park, losing the Affirmed Handicap (gr. III) and Swaps Stakes (gr. II) by a combined 1 1/4 lengths. He has the class to suggest that he can contend, and his recent workouts have been exceptional, but the fact remains that all of his best efforts have come over Hollywood's Cushion Track, and he may not be quite as good on dirt.
Atigun is a somewhat surprising 8-1 on the morning line, despite the fact that he finished a strong third in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) last time out. Perhaps many feel that his performance that day was more the result of the long distance rather than his talent, but he did win a 1 1/16th miles allowance race on the Kentucky Derby undercard in strong enough fashion, and while it's true that this colt certainly does like distance, he may simply be an up-and-comer that could contend for the victory in shorter races thanks to his talent alone.
As for the rest, Fast Falcon finished second in both the Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) and Easy Goer Stakes to Teeth of the Dog, but the Nick Zito-trainee is unlikely to get the same terrific pace setup that he did in the Dwyer. Prospective has won a pair of graded stakes races, something none of his rivals have done, but it's difficult to say for sure if he is as good as some of the other runners here. Last of all, My Adonis won the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth Park last time out, but was tiriong badly at the finish despite not setting a particularly fast pace. Going another sixteenth of a mile farther today, while stepping up in class, he may find himself in deep waters when the closers come after him in the homestretch.
My fairly uncreative selection is Neck 'n Neck. With all due respect to Alpha, winning a race of this caliber off of a three-month layoff is not going to be easy. And while Teeth of the Dog is clearly a talented colt, I think Neck 'n Neck may simply be better. Liaison, too, deserves some serious respect, but until he hits the board in a major race on dirt, I will continue to view him as more of a Cushion Track-specialist.
-Keelerman
The Juveniles at Saratoga -- July 26-27th, 2012
Racing action for two-year-olds has been a little light over the last couple of days, with only two races being run over the course of the Thursday and Friday cards. However, the winner of one -- Park City -- appears to be a pretty nice colt that could be a major runner later this year.
July 26th
Race 4: Maiden Claiming
5.5 furlongs for 2yo fillies
Queen Nine, with Joel Rosario aboard, was favored for trainer Wesley Ward off of a third-place finish in her debut. However, she proved no match for The Party's Here, who opened up a three-length early lead while running the opening quarter mile in a blazing :21.93 seconds en route to a neck victory at odds of 24-1. Understandably, she tired a great deal in the homestretch, but I thought that she ran quite well to hold off a strong late run from Nodebtdanny, who made up 3 1/4 lengths inside the final eighth of a mile while giving the impression of being a filly that would appreciate additional distance. Shrinking Violet and Queen Nine tired to finish third and fourth after tracking the early pace.
July 27th
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight
5 furlongs for 2yos
All but one of the seven starters had racing experience, but it ended up being the lone first-time starter, Park City, who triumphed in strong fashion. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Harlan's Holiday settled into the fourth position early on as Coach A. J., Titletown Five, and Stage Street dueled through quick fractions of :21.85 and :45.70 over a sloppy sealed track. Then Park City began to advance, and closed two lengths inside the final eighth of a mile to secure a good-looking one-length victory, stopping the clock in :58.55 seconds. Stage Street ran well to finish second after helping set the early pace, while Coach A. J. and Titletown Five completed the superfecta. Volastic was well-bet with Ramon Dominguez aboard, but the colt never presented a rally and finished fifth.
-Keelerman
July 26th
Race 4: Maiden Claiming
5.5 furlongs for 2yo fillies
Queen Nine, with Joel Rosario aboard, was favored for trainer Wesley Ward off of a third-place finish in her debut. However, she proved no match for The Party's Here, who opened up a three-length early lead while running the opening quarter mile in a blazing :21.93 seconds en route to a neck victory at odds of 24-1. Understandably, she tired a great deal in the homestretch, but I thought that she ran quite well to hold off a strong late run from Nodebtdanny, who made up 3 1/4 lengths inside the final eighth of a mile while giving the impression of being a filly that would appreciate additional distance. Shrinking Violet and Queen Nine tired to finish third and fourth after tracking the early pace.
July 27th
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight
5 furlongs for 2yos
All but one of the seven starters had racing experience, but it ended up being the lone first-time starter, Park City, who triumphed in strong fashion. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Harlan's Holiday settled into the fourth position early on as Coach A. J., Titletown Five, and Stage Street dueled through quick fractions of :21.85 and :45.70 over a sloppy sealed track. Then Park City began to advance, and closed two lengths inside the final eighth of a mile to secure a good-looking one-length victory, stopping the clock in :58.55 seconds. Stage Street ran well to finish second after helping set the early pace, while Coach A. J. and Titletown Five completed the superfecta. Volastic was well-bet with Ramon Dominguez aboard, but the colt never presented a rally and finished fifth.
-Keelerman
Friday, July 27, 2012
STREET LIFE WINS THE CURLIN STAKES!
Street Life burst into contention around the far turn and wore down Five Sixteen to win the $100,000 Curlin Stakes at Saratoga by about two lengths.
Ridden to victory by Jose Lezcano, Street Life did not get off to the best of starts and found himself in last place during the early stages of the nine-furlong race while Love to Run and Easter Gift set a moderate pace of :23.64 and :47.68. Five Sixteen, Reload, and Ever So Lucky were racing together about two lengths behind the pace-setters, with only Street Life behind them.
Rounding the final turn, Ever So Lucky and Street Life each made powerful bids on the outside to reach contention, and turning for home they were side-by-side with Easter Gift and Love to Run to right behind. Also in contention was Five Sixteen, who had secured a brilliant rail-trip to strike the front at the top of the stretch.
However, his lead was short-lived, as Street Life had plenty left in the tank, and wore down the long shot with ease to win the race in decisive fashion, stopping the clock over a muddy track in 1:50.68 seconds. Five Sixteen held on to second over Ever So Lucky, while Easter Gift completed the superfecta.
The winner is trained by Chad Brown and owned by Magnolia Racing Stable and Hidden Brook Farm.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Jose Lezcano, Street Life did not get off to the best of starts and found himself in last place during the early stages of the nine-furlong race while Love to Run and Easter Gift set a moderate pace of :23.64 and :47.68. Five Sixteen, Reload, and Ever So Lucky were racing together about two lengths behind the pace-setters, with only Street Life behind them.
Rounding the final turn, Ever So Lucky and Street Life each made powerful bids on the outside to reach contention, and turning for home they were side-by-side with Easter Gift and Love to Run to right behind. Also in contention was Five Sixteen, who had secured a brilliant rail-trip to strike the front at the top of the stretch.
However, his lead was short-lived, as Street Life had plenty left in the tank, and wore down the long shot with ease to win the race in decisive fashion, stopping the clock over a muddy track in 1:50.68 seconds. Five Sixteen held on to second over Ever So Lucky, while Easter Gift completed the superfecta.
The winner is trained by Chad Brown and owned by Magnolia Racing Stable and Hidden Brook Farm.
-Keelerman
SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- July 27th, 2012
The feature race of the Friday card may not be a graded stakes, but the $100,000 Curlin Stakes is rapidly becoming a respected prep for the $1,000,000 Travers Stakes (gr. I) and thus drew a quality field eight, although two scratches have reduced the field to six. Despite the small field, it is not an easy race to handicap, and it's even tougher now since overnight rains left the track a sloppy mess.
The morning line favorite is Street Life, who won the $75,000 Broad Brush Stakes back in March and is the lone stakes winner in the field. His recent efforts have been respectable, with a third-place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. III) preceding a fourth-place in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), but the late-running colt is reliant on a strong early pace to set up his late kick and may not get that today, as their is not much speed at all in the race. He certainly deserves respect based on talent alone, but under the circumstances, he would likely need a career-best performance to secure the victory.
Ever So Lucky is an intriguing horse, for while he may be a bit over-matched here in terms of Beyer speed figures, he could potentially find himself as the lone front-runner in the race. He showed great promise as a juvenile, breaking his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths before finishing a strong second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), but disappointing efforts in the Swale Stakes (gr. III) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) caused him to lose a great deal of his reputation. However, a 7 1/2-length victory in an allowance race on July 5th may be a sign that he is about to return to form in a big way, and with John Velazquez in the saddle, Ever So Lucky may go straight to the lead, set a slow pace, and kick away in the homestretch for a convincing victory.
Perhaps the only horse that could possibly beat Ever So Lucky to the lead is Easter Gift, a Nick Zito-trainee that is coming off of a narrow defeat in the Pegasus Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth Park. In that race, a poor start compromised the colt's chances, and he just failed to catch the good colt Le Bernardin in a strong performance. Previously, Easter Gift had won a seven-furlong allowance race in gate-to-wire fashion, running the half-mile in a quick :45 4/5. Given the speed he showed that day, coupled with the fact that he is 2-for-2 over off tracks, makes him a logical contender for the victory.
Reload also deserves respect, as the Shug McGaughey-trainee was beaten just a neck last time out in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race at Belmont Park, a race in which he closed from well off of the pace after a poor start to be beaten for a neck. Owned by the Phipps Stable, Reload is a well-bred son of Hard Spun that still has a lot of room for improvement, and even a small step up in performance would make him a contender.
The two long shots are Five Sixteen and Love to Run. The first-mentioned colt has only won once from seven starts, but didn't run all that badly last time out in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), where he finished fifth. Love to Run has won two straight races, a maiden special weight and an allowance race, but would need to improve his performance in order to contend.
My selection is Easter Gift, due mainly to his connections, his perfect record on off tracks, and his ability to adapt to many pace scenarios. I envision him securing a perfect trip and finishing strongly in the homestretch to secure the victory. Ever So Lucky and Reload should certainly be tough in the stretch, and Street Life should be coming late at the finish, but I am fairly confident that Easter Gift will emerge the victor and stamp himself as a major contender for the Travers Stakes next month.
-Keelerman
The morning line favorite is Street Life, who won the $75,000 Broad Brush Stakes back in March and is the lone stakes winner in the field. His recent efforts have been respectable, with a third-place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. III) preceding a fourth-place in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), but the late-running colt is reliant on a strong early pace to set up his late kick and may not get that today, as their is not much speed at all in the race. He certainly deserves respect based on talent alone, but under the circumstances, he would likely need a career-best performance to secure the victory.
Ever So Lucky is an intriguing horse, for while he may be a bit over-matched here in terms of Beyer speed figures, he could potentially find himself as the lone front-runner in the race. He showed great promise as a juvenile, breaking his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths before finishing a strong second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), but disappointing efforts in the Swale Stakes (gr. III) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) caused him to lose a great deal of his reputation. However, a 7 1/2-length victory in an allowance race on July 5th may be a sign that he is about to return to form in a big way, and with John Velazquez in the saddle, Ever So Lucky may go straight to the lead, set a slow pace, and kick away in the homestretch for a convincing victory.
Perhaps the only horse that could possibly beat Ever So Lucky to the lead is Easter Gift, a Nick Zito-trainee that is coming off of a narrow defeat in the Pegasus Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth Park. In that race, a poor start compromised the colt's chances, and he just failed to catch the good colt Le Bernardin in a strong performance. Previously, Easter Gift had won a seven-furlong allowance race in gate-to-wire fashion, running the half-mile in a quick :45 4/5. Given the speed he showed that day, coupled with the fact that he is 2-for-2 over off tracks, makes him a logical contender for the victory.
Reload also deserves respect, as the Shug McGaughey-trainee was beaten just a neck last time out in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race at Belmont Park, a race in which he closed from well off of the pace after a poor start to be beaten for a neck. Owned by the Phipps Stable, Reload is a well-bred son of Hard Spun that still has a lot of room for improvement, and even a small step up in performance would make him a contender.
The two long shots are Five Sixteen and Love to Run. The first-mentioned colt has only won once from seven starts, but didn't run all that badly last time out in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), where he finished fifth. Love to Run has won two straight races, a maiden special weight and an allowance race, but would need to improve his performance in order to contend.
My selection is Easter Gift, due mainly to his connections, his perfect record on off tracks, and his ability to adapt to many pace scenarios. I envision him securing a perfect trip and finishing strongly in the homestretch to secure the victory. Ever So Lucky and Reload should certainly be tough in the stretch, and Street Life should be coming late at the finish, but I am fairly confident that Easter Gift will emerge the victor and stamp himself as a major contender for the Travers Stakes next month.
-Keelerman
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Molly Pitcher Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 Molly Pitcher Stakes (gr. II), to be run on Sunday at Monmouth Park. The 1 1/16th miles race for fillies and mares has drawn a large and talented field of nine, including grade I-placed Absinthe Minded and the talented Afleeting Lady.
1 Afleeting Lady
2 Derwin's Star
3 Nefertini
4 Catch a Thief
5 Withgreatpleasure
6 R Gypsy Gold
7 Successful Song
8 Brushed by a Star
9 Absinthe Minded
-Keelerman
1 Afleeting Lady
2 Derwin's Star
3 Nefertini
4 Catch a Thief
5 Withgreatpleasure
6 R Gypsy Gold
7 Successful Song
8 Brushed by a Star
9 Absinthe Minded
-Keelerman
Oceanport Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries for the $150,000 Oceanport Stakes (gr. III), to be run on Sunday at Monmouth Park. The 1 1/16th miles turf race has drawn a quality field of eight, led by two-time Oceanport Stakes winner Get Serious.
1 Get Serious
2 Magnifi Cat
3 Tune Me In
4 Roman Tiger
5 Queen'splatekitten
6 Glass Art
7 Admiral Perry
8 Crepuscolo
-Keelerman
1 Get Serious
2 Magnifi Cat
3 Tune Me In
4 Roman Tiger
5 Queen'splatekitten
6 Glass Art
7 Admiral Perry
8 Crepuscolo
-Keelerman
Amsterdam Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II), to be run on Sunday at Saratoga. The 6-1/2 furlong race is a prep for the prestigious King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I), to be run at Saratoga next month, and has thus drawn an excellent field of seven three-year-old colts, led by Carry Back Stakes (gr. III) winner Fort Loudon, Bob Baffert's promising Gun Boat, and 2011 Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) Currency Swap.
1 Gun Boat
2 Fort Loudon
3 Unbridled's Note
4 Currency Swap
5 Laurie's Rocket
6 Politicallycorrect
7 Doctor Chit
-Keelerman
1 Gun Boat
2 Fort Loudon
3 Unbridled's Note
4 Currency Swap
5 Laurie's Rocket
6 Politicallycorrect
7 Doctor Chit
-Keelerman
Bing Crosby Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $300,000 Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I), to be run on Sunday at Del Mar. The prestigious six-furlong sprint has only drawn a field of five, but that includes last year's Eclipse champion male sprinter Amazombie, two-time grade I winner The Factor, and 2010 CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Comma to the Top.
1 Amazombie
2 Comma to the Top
3 Don Tito
4 The Factor
5 Capital Account
-Keelerman
1 Amazombie
2 Comma to the Top
3 Don Tito
4 The Factor
5 Capital Account
-Keelerman
Haskell Invitational Contender Profile: STEALCASE
Owner: John C. Oxley
Trainer: Mark Casse
Breeder: Secret Whispers Partnership
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
RACE RECORD
Age 3
2nd Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
3rd Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III)
5th Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
6th Gotham Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
4th Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 24th: 4f in :51 flat breezing from the gate at Laurel Park
Trainer: Mark Casse
Breeder: Secret Whispers Partnership
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
RACE RECORD
Age 3
2nd Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
3rd Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III)
5th Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
6th Gotham Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
4th Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| Langfuhr | ||
| Lawyer Ron | ||
| Donation | ||
| Stealcase | ||
| Cat Thief | ||
| Steal the Show | ||
| Shoreline |
LAST WORKOUT
July 24th: 4f in :51 flat breezing from the gate at Laurel Park
Haskell Invitational Contender Profile: HANDSOME MIKE
Owner: J. Paul Reddam
Trainer: Doug O'Neill
Breeder: John Liviakis
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
4th Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
3rd El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)
4th Sham Stakes (gr. III)
Age 2
7th CashCall Futurity (gr. I)
2nd Generous Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 21st: 6f in 1:11.80 at Betfair Hollywood Park (bullet work)
Trainer: Doug O'Neill
Breeder: John Liviakis
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
4th Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
3rd El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)
4th Sham Stakes (gr. III)
Age 2
7th CashCall Futurity (gr. I)
2nd Generous Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| Johannesburg | ||
| Scat Daddy | ||
| Love Style | ||
| Handsome Mike | ||
| Smart Strike | ||
| Classic Strike | ||
| Classic Hostess |
LAST WORKOUT
July 21st: 6f in 1:11.80 at Betfair Hollywood Park (bullet work)
Haskell Invitational Contender Profile: GEMOLOGIST
Owner: Let's Go Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: G. Watts Humphrey Jr. & Louise Ireland Humphrey Revocable Trust - 2
Jockey: Javier Castellano
RACE RECORD
Age 3
15th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
1st Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
1st Allowance
Age 2
1st Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
1st Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 22nd: 5f in :58.40 at Saratoga
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: G. Watts Humphrey Jr. & Louise Ireland Humphrey Revocable Trust - 2
Jockey: Javier Castellano
RACE RECORD
Age 3
15th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
1st Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
1st Allowance
Age 2
1st Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
1st Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| Cee's Tizzy | ||
| Tiznow | ||
| Cee's Song | ||
| Gemlogist | ||
| Mr. Prospector | ||
| Crystal Shard | ||
| Sulemeif |
LAST WORKOUT
July 22nd: 5f in :58.40 at Saratoga
Haskell Invitational Contender Profile: PAYNTER
Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breeder: Diamond A. Racing Corp.
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
RACE RECORD
Age 3
2nd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Allowance
2nd The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III)
4th Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
1st Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
Unraced
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 23rd: 6f in 1:11.80 at Del Mar
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breeder: Diamond A. Racing Corp.
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
RACE RECORD
Age 3
2nd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Allowance
2nd The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III)
4th Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
1st Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
Unraced
PEDIGREE
| Deputy Minister | ||
| Awesome Again | ||
| Private Force | ||
| Paynter | ||
| Cee's Tizzy | ||
| Tizso | ||
| Cee's Song |
LAST WORKOUT
July 23rd: 6f in 1:11.80 at Del Mar
Haskell Invitational Contender Profile: DULLAHAN
Owner: Donegal Racing
Trainer: Dale Romans
Breeder: Phil Needham, Judy Needham, & Bena Halecky
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
RACE RECORD
Age 3
7th Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
3rd Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
1st Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III)
Age 2
4th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
1st Breeders' Futurity (gr. I)
3rd With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Maiden Special Weight
5th Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 1st: 5f in :59.80 at Churchill Downs
Trainer: Dale Romans
Breeder: Phil Needham, Judy Needham, & Bena Halecky
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux
RACE RECORD
Age 3
7th Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
3rd Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
1st Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III)
Age 2
4th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
1st Breeders' Futurity (gr. I)
3rd With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Maiden Special Weight
5th Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| Unbridled's Song | ||
| Even the Score | ||
| Ashtabula | ||
| Dullahan | ||
| Smart Strike | ||
| Mining My Own | ||
| Aspenelle |
LAST WORKOUT
July 1st: 5f in :59.80 at Churchill Downs
Haskell Invitational Contender Profile: NONIOS
Owner: Green B. Smith, Jr.
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Breeder: Hermitage Farm LLC
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
RACE RECORD
Age 3
2nd Swaps Stakes (gr. II)
1st Affirmed Stakes (gr. III)
3rd Allowance Optional Claiming
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
1st Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
Unraced
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 23rd: 6f in 1:15 flat at Del Mar
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Breeder: Hermitage Farm LLC
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
RACE RECORD
Age 3
2nd Swaps Stakes (gr. II)
1st Affirmed Stakes (gr. III)
3rd Allowance Optional Claiming
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
1st Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
Unraced
PEDIGREE
| Pleasant Colony | ||
| Pleasantly Perfect | ||
| Regal State | ||
| Nonios | ||
| Touch Gold | ||
| Stylish Manner | ||
| Devil's Nell |
LAST WORKOUT
July 23rd: 6f in 1:15 flat at Del Mar
The Juveniles at Saratoga -- July 25th, 2012
There may have been only one two-year-old race on the Wednesday card -- an $80,000 maiden special weight for fillies -- but it was a good one, and the winner certainly has the potential to become a graded stakes winner before the year is over.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight
5 furlongs for 2yo fillies
The favorite was Lucky Friend, a Todd Pletcher-trainee with John Velazquez aboard. Coming off of a fourth-place effort in her debut, she figured to improve in her second start and was thus sent off at nearly 3-2. However, she could only manage another fourth-place finish behind runaway winner Teen Pauline, a daughter of Tapit out of the Carson City mare Effectual. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Teen Pauline showed speed from the start under jockey Julien Leparoux, setting a blazing pace of :21.82 and :44.73 before drawing off hand urging to win the race by 4 3/4 lengths. The final time was :56.53, breaking the track record of :56.54 set last year by J C's Pride. Teen Pauline is owned by Stonestreet Stables, and could potentially make her next start in the Adirondack Stakes (gr. II) on August 12th. My Happy Face proved no match for the winner, but did finish 10 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field while turning in a promising debut performance. Gadget Girl set the pace along with Teen Pauline before tiring badly in the final eighth of a mile.
-Keelerman
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight
5 furlongs for 2yo fillies
The favorite was Lucky Friend, a Todd Pletcher-trainee with John Velazquez aboard. Coming off of a fourth-place effort in her debut, she figured to improve in her second start and was thus sent off at nearly 3-2. However, she could only manage another fourth-place finish behind runaway winner Teen Pauline, a daughter of Tapit out of the Carson City mare Effectual. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Teen Pauline showed speed from the start under jockey Julien Leparoux, setting a blazing pace of :21.82 and :44.73 before drawing off hand urging to win the race by 4 3/4 lengths. The final time was :56.53, breaking the track record of :56.54 set last year by J C's Pride. Teen Pauline is owned by Stonestreet Stables, and could potentially make her next start in the Adirondack Stakes (gr. II) on August 12th. My Happy Face proved no match for the winner, but did finish 10 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field while turning in a promising debut performance. Gadget Girl set the pace along with Teen Pauline before tiring badly in the final eighth of a mile.
-Keelerman
Haskell Invitational Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational Stakes (gr. I), to be run on Sunday at Monmouth Park. The nine-furlong race is among the most prestigious in the country for three-year-olds, and has thus drawn a small but high-quality field of six, led by Belmont Stakes (gr. I) runner-up Paynter, Kentucky Derby (gr. I) third-place finisher Dullahan, and Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) winner Gemologist.
-Keelerman
| PP | Horse | Weight | Jockey | Trainer | M. L. Odds |
| 1 | Nonios | 118 | Corey Nakatani | Jerry Hollendorfer | 7-2 |
| 2 | Dullahan | 120 | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 3-1 |
| 3 | Paynter | 118 | Rafael Bejarano | Bob Baffert | 3-1 |
| 4 | Gemologist | 120 | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 3-1 |
| 5 | Handsome Mike | 118 | Mario Gutierrez | Doug O'Neill | 15-1 |
| 6 | Stealcase | 118 | Shaun Bridgmohan | Mark Casse | 8-1 |
-Keelerman
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Jim Dandy Stakes Contender Profile: PROSPECTIVE
Owner: John C. Oxley
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Breeder: Spendthrift Farm
Jockey: John Velazquez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
1st Ohio Derby (gr. III)
1st Victoria Park Stakes
18th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
6th Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)
1st Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II)
2nd Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Pasco Stakes
Age 2
13th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
1st Grey Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 20th: 5f in 1:02.80 at Woodbine
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Breeder: Spendthrift Farm
Jockey: John Velazquez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
1st Ohio Derby (gr. III)
1st Victoria Park Stakes
18th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
6th Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)
1st Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II)
2nd Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Pasco Stakes
Age 2
13th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
1st Grey Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| A.P. Indy | ||
| Malibu Moon | ||
| Macoumba | ||
| Prospective | ||
| Awesome Again | ||
| Spirited Away | ||
| Cape North |
LAST WORKOUT
July 20th: 5f in 1:02.80 at Woodbine
Jim Dandy Stakes Contender Profile: LIAISON
Owner: Arnold Zetcher
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breeder: William A. Carl Estate
Jockey: Martin Garcia
RACE RECORD
Age 3
3rd Swaps Stakes (gr. II)
2nd Affirmed Handicap (gr. III)
6th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
6th Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
4th San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)
8th Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)
Age 2
1st CashCall Futurity (gr. I)
1st Real Quiet Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 23rd: 6f in 1:12.40 at Saratoga
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breeder: William A. Carl Estate
Jockey: Martin Garcia
RACE RECORD
Age 3
3rd Swaps Stakes (gr. II)
2nd Affirmed Handicap (gr. III)
6th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
6th Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
4th San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)
8th Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)
Age 2
1st CashCall Futurity (gr. I)
1st Real Quiet Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| In Excess | ||
| Indian Charlie | ||
| Soviet Sojourn | ||
| Liaison | ||
| Victory Gallop | ||
| Galloping Gal | ||
| Indy Flash |
LAST WORKOUT
July 23rd: 6f in 1:12.40 at Saratoga
Jim Dandy Stakes Contender Profile: TEETH OF THE DOG
Owner: J.W. Singer LLC Trainer: Michael Matz
Breeder: Royal Pegasus
Jockey: Joel Rosario
RACE RECORD
Age 3
1st Dwyer Stakes (gr. II)
1st Easy Goer Stakes
5th Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
3rd Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
3rd Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 1st: 5f in 1:01.60 at Fair Hill
Breeder: Royal Pegasus
Jockey: Joel Rosario
RACE RECORD
Age 3
1st Dwyer Stakes (gr. II)
1st Easy Goer Stakes
5th Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
3rd Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
3rd Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| Storm Cat | ||
| Bluegrass Cat | ||
| She's a Winner | ||
| Teeth of the Dog | ||
| Deputy Minister | ||
| Deputy Reality | ||
| Halo Reality |
LAST WORKOUT
July 1st: 5f in 1:01.60 at Fair Hill
Jim Dandy Stakes Contender Profile: NECK 'N NECK
Owner: A. Stevens Miles, Jr.
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Breeder: A. Stevens Miles, Jr.
Jockey: Leandro Goncalves
RACE RECORD
Age 3
1st Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III)
1st Allowance
5th Florida Derby (gr. I)
4th Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)
5th Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Allowance Optional Claiming
Age 2
1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
8th Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 23rd: 5f in :59.76 at Saratoga
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Breeder: A. Stevens Miles, Jr.
Jockey: Leandro Goncalves
RACE RECORD
Age 3
1st Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III)
1st Allowance
5th Florida Derby (gr. I)
4th Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)
5th Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Allowance Optional Claiming
Age 2
1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
8th Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| Distorted Humor | ||
| Flower Alley | ||
| Princess Olivia | ||
| Neck 'n Neck | ||
| Storm Boot | ||
| Bootery | ||
| Magic Way |
LAST WORKOUT
July 23rd: 5f in :59.76 at Saratoga
Jim Dandy Stakes Contender Profile: ATIGUN
Owner: Shortleaf Stable, Inc.
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
Breeder: Brereton C. Jones
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
RACE RECORD
Age 3
3rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
5th Arkansas Derby (gr. I)
11th Rebel Stakes (gr. II)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
Age 2
5th Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
9th Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 21st: 5f in 1:00.81 at Saratoga
Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
Breeder: Brereton C. Jones
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
RACE RECORD
Age 3
3rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
5th Arkansas Derby (gr. I)
11th Rebel Stakes (gr. II)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
Age 2
5th Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
9th Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| Gone West | ||
| Istan | ||
| Ronda | ||
| Alpha | ||
| Dynaformer | ||
| Rimini Road | ||
| Evangelical |
LAST WORKOUT
July 21st: 5f in 1:00.81 at Saratoga
Jim Dandy Stakes Contender Profile: FAST FALCON
Owner: Richard C. Pell
Trainer: Nick Zito
Breeder: B. P. Walden Jr. & H. G. King III
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
RACE RECORD
Age 3
2nd Dwyer Stakes (gr. II)
2nd Easy Goer Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight
6th Maiden Special Weight
7th Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
Unraced
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 20th: 4f in :49.35 at Saratoga
Trainer: Nick Zito
Breeder: B. P. Walden Jr. & H. G. King III
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
RACE RECORD
Age 3
2nd Dwyer Stakes (gr. II)
2nd Easy Goer Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight
6th Maiden Special Weight
7th Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
Unraced
PEDIGREE
| Deputy Minister | ||
| Awesome Again | ||
| Primal Force | ||
| Fast Falcon | ||
| Pleasant Tap | ||
| My Chickadee | ||
| Slew City Slicker |
LAST WORKOUT
July 20th: 4f in :49.35 at Saratoga
Jim Dandy Stakes Contender Profile: ALPHA
Owner: Goldolphin Racing Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Breeder: Darley
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
12th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
2nd Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
1st Withers Stakes (gr. III)
1st Count Fleet Stakes
Age 2
11th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
2nd Champagne Stakes (gr. I)
1st Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
July 21st: 4f in :49.58 at Saratoga
Breeder: Darley
Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
12th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
2nd Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
1st Withers Stakes (gr. III)
1st Count Fleet Stakes
Age 2
11th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
2nd Champagne Stakes (gr. I)
1st Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| A.P. Indy | ||
| Bernardini | ||
| Cara Rafaela | ||
| Alpha | ||
| Nijinsky II | ||
| Munnaya | ||
| Hiaam |
LAST WORKOUT
July 21st: 4f in :49.58 at Saratoga
SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- July 25th, 2012
The fifth graded stakes of the Saratoga meet is the $200,000 Lake George Stakes (gr. II), a 1 1/16th miles turf race for three-year-old fillies. There are a number of fascinating entrants, including a European classic winner making her American debut.
The morning line favorite at 5-2 is Stephanie's Kitten, who won the Alcibiadies Stakes (gr. I) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) as a two-year-old. Trained by Wayne Catalano, she began her 2012 campaign with a third-place finish in the Ashland Stakes (gr. I) over the Keeneland Polytrack, then switched back to turf and won the Edgewood Stakes in impressive fashion on May 4th. A slight illness kept her from a potential start in the Coronation Stakes (Eng-I) at Royal Ascot, but she has been training sharply for her return and should be a major factor, even if she is a bit short in her first start back.
Her main competition may end up coming from Samitar, a European-based filly that was recently acquired by owner Martin Schwartz. She was a top-class filly in Europe, where she won the Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas (Ire-I) with an impressive finish. Her only subsequent start, a fourth-place effort in the Coronation Stakes (Eng-I), may have been partly due to soft ground -- something she will not encounter today. Obviously, there are some major questions regarding how she will handle the transatlantic voyage, but anything remotely resembling her Irish Guineas form would put her in contention for the victory.
Centre Court is also likely to receive some wagering support, thanks to her strong victory in the Regret Stakes (gr. III) last time out. While it is true that several of the horses she beat that day did not run well in their next starts, that does not detract from the fact that Centre Court is a very high-quality filly with a strong turf pedigree, and with Julien Leparoux in the saddle, she should be able to work out just the kind of trip she needs to secure the victory.
As for the rest of the contenders, Better Lucky won the Sands Point Stakes (gr. II) in fine fashion last time out, but is facing much better today; Dancing Solo has won two straight stakes for trainer Todd Pletcher, but she too is stepping up in class; Somali Lemonade was a top-class juvenile, but has failed while well-bet in all three of her 2012 performances; Medolina is undefeated in three starts, including a stakes, but is facing much tougher today; and Elusive Rumour has won two of six starts, but is making her first start against open company after spending her career running against New York-breds.
My selection is Centre Court. While I certainly respect the chances of Stephanie's Kitten and Samitar, I do believe they will both be a bit short today, and would expect to see their best sometime in the future. I like Centre Court for many reasons, including the impressive turn-of-foot she displayed last time out, and Leparoux is a master at riding turf races. Better Lucky certainly merits respect as well, as she also displayed brilliant acceleration in the Sands Point Stakes, but I feel that Centre Court may be just a bit better.
-Keelerman
The morning line favorite at 5-2 is Stephanie's Kitten, who won the Alcibiadies Stakes (gr. I) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) as a two-year-old. Trained by Wayne Catalano, she began her 2012 campaign with a third-place finish in the Ashland Stakes (gr. I) over the Keeneland Polytrack, then switched back to turf and won the Edgewood Stakes in impressive fashion on May 4th. A slight illness kept her from a potential start in the Coronation Stakes (Eng-I) at Royal Ascot, but she has been training sharply for her return and should be a major factor, even if she is a bit short in her first start back.
Her main competition may end up coming from Samitar, a European-based filly that was recently acquired by owner Martin Schwartz. She was a top-class filly in Europe, where she won the Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas (Ire-I) with an impressive finish. Her only subsequent start, a fourth-place effort in the Coronation Stakes (Eng-I), may have been partly due to soft ground -- something she will not encounter today. Obviously, there are some major questions regarding how she will handle the transatlantic voyage, but anything remotely resembling her Irish Guineas form would put her in contention for the victory.
Centre Court is also likely to receive some wagering support, thanks to her strong victory in the Regret Stakes (gr. III) last time out. While it is true that several of the horses she beat that day did not run well in their next starts, that does not detract from the fact that Centre Court is a very high-quality filly with a strong turf pedigree, and with Julien Leparoux in the saddle, she should be able to work out just the kind of trip she needs to secure the victory.
As for the rest of the contenders, Better Lucky won the Sands Point Stakes (gr. II) in fine fashion last time out, but is facing much better today; Dancing Solo has won two straight stakes for trainer Todd Pletcher, but she too is stepping up in class; Somali Lemonade was a top-class juvenile, but has failed while well-bet in all three of her 2012 performances; Medolina is undefeated in three starts, including a stakes, but is facing much tougher today; and Elusive Rumour has won two of six starts, but is making her first start against open company after spending her career running against New York-breds.
My selection is Centre Court. While I certainly respect the chances of Stephanie's Kitten and Samitar, I do believe they will both be a bit short today, and would expect to see their best sometime in the future. I like Centre Court for many reasons, including the impressive turn-of-foot she displayed last time out, and Leparoux is a master at riding turf races. Better Lucky certainly merits respect as well, as she also displayed brilliant acceleration in the Sands Point Stakes, but I feel that Centre Court may be just a bit better.
-Keelerman
San Diego Handicap Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 San Diego Handicap (gr. II), a "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I). The 1 1/16th miles race, which will be run on Saturday at Del Mar, has drawn a strong field of seven, including 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I) winner Rail Trip, the undefeated up-and-comer Take Control, as well as the three-time graded stakes winner Prayer for Relief.
1 Kettle Corn
2 Mobilized
3 Tres Borrachos
4 John Scott
5 Take Control
6 Prayer for Relief
7 Rail Trip
-Keelerman
1 Kettle Corn
2 Mobilized
3 Tres Borrachos
4 John Scott
5 Take Control
6 Prayer for Relief
7 Rail Trip
-Keelerman
Diana Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $600,000 Diana Stakes (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Saratoga. The prestigious nine-furlong turf race for fillies and mares has drawn an exceptional field of six, led by grade I winners Winter Memories, Tapitsfly, and Zagora, in addition to two-time grade II winner Hungry Island.
1 Tapitsfly
2 Law of the Range
3 Zagora
4 Dream Peace
5 Winter Memories
6 Hungry Island
-Keelerman
1 Tapitsfly
2 Law of the Range
3 Zagora
4 Dream Peace
5 Winter Memories
6 Hungry Island
-Keelerman
Jim Dandy Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Saratoga. The nine-furlong race for three-year-olds is a major prep for the $1,000,000 Travers Stakes (gr. I), and has thus drawn a terrific field of eight, led by Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) runner-up Alpha, Belmont Stakes (gr. I) third-place finisher Atigun, CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Liaison, Ohio Derby (gr. II) winner Prospective, and Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) winner Teeth of the Dog.
-Keelerman
| PP | Horse | Weight | Jockey | Trainer |
| 1 | Alpha | 119 | Ramon Dominguez | Kiaran McLaughlin |
| 2 | Fast Falcon | 117 | Rosie Napravnik | Nick Zito |
| 3 | Atigun | 117 | Julien Leparoux | Kenny McPeek |
| 4 | Neck 'n Neck | 119 | Leandro Goncalves | Ian Wilkes |
| 5 | My Adonis | 117 | Javier Castellano | Kelly Breen |
| 6 | Teeth of the Dog | 121 | Joel Rosario | Michael Matz |
| 7 | Liaison | 119 | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert |
| 8 | Prospective | 121 | John Velazquez | Mark Casse |
-Keelerman
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
THE JUVENILES AT SARATOGA -- July 22-23rd, 2012
Three juvenile races were run during the Sunday and Monday cards at Saratoga, by far the most prestigious being the $200,000 Sanford Stakes (gr. II). However, the other two races were both intriguing in their own right, and the winners look like a nice pair.
July 22nd
Race 9: Sanford Stakes (gr. II)
6 furlongs for 2yos
Bern Identity was the favorite based off of a 13 3/4 length maiden victory, and he lived up to his billing with another strong performance. Under a perfect ride from Rosie Napravik, the colt broke slowly but recovered to race in fourth along the rail. He then shifted to the outside in the homestretch and wore down pace-setting Handsome Jack to win by 1 1/4 lengths. The latter colt set a quick pace of :21.60 and :44.70 before tiring in the homestretch. Onetwentyeight rallied mildly for third, but gave the impression of being a colt that would appreciate additional distance. Rose Junction was in the perfect position going down the backstretch, but faded in the stretch and finished last.
July 23rd
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight
8.5 furlongs on turf for 2yo fillies
Todd Pletcher had a pair of runners, including heavily favored Citizen Emma, but the winner proved to be trainer Christophe Clement's Da Mi Basia Mille, who rallied powerfully from off the pace to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Her performance was especially impressive due to the fact that she made up six lengths inside the final five-sixteenths of a mile, despite the fact that those final five-sixteenths were run in :30.1 seconds. Citizen Emma ran well from off-the-pace to finish second, while Emotional Kitten held on to third after setting quick fractions of :22.55 and :46.99. Zadina, who finished fourth, and Pletcher's other runner Aventurine, who finished sixth, made late runs from well behind and could be ones to watch in the future.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight
5.5 furlongs for 2yo New York-breds
Pletcher's first-timer starter Polan was favored, and ran well in the early stages of the race while running the opening quarter mile in :22.03 seconds. However, he tired inside the final five-sixteenths of a mile to finish fifth, allowing Soul House, with Joel Rosario aboard, to rally for a convincing victory. The winner's performance was an eye-catching one, as he found himself some 8 1/2 lengths off of the pace after a poor start. Despite this, he was able to rally on the far outside in the homestretch to give trainer Larry Rivelli his first winner of the meet. Weekend Hideaway tracked Polan through the early stages of the race before opening up a two-length lead in the homestretch before tiring late. Dark Roast raced in the third position for much of the race and wound up in that position at the finish.
-Keelerman
July 22nd
Race 9: Sanford Stakes (gr. II)
6 furlongs for 2yos
Bern Identity was the favorite based off of a 13 3/4 length maiden victory, and he lived up to his billing with another strong performance. Under a perfect ride from Rosie Napravik, the colt broke slowly but recovered to race in fourth along the rail. He then shifted to the outside in the homestretch and wore down pace-setting Handsome Jack to win by 1 1/4 lengths. The latter colt set a quick pace of :21.60 and :44.70 before tiring in the homestretch. Onetwentyeight rallied mildly for third, but gave the impression of being a colt that would appreciate additional distance. Rose Junction was in the perfect position going down the backstretch, but faded in the stretch and finished last.
July 23rd
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight
8.5 furlongs on turf for 2yo fillies
Todd Pletcher had a pair of runners, including heavily favored Citizen Emma, but the winner proved to be trainer Christophe Clement's Da Mi Basia Mille, who rallied powerfully from off the pace to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Her performance was especially impressive due to the fact that she made up six lengths inside the final five-sixteenths of a mile, despite the fact that those final five-sixteenths were run in :30.1 seconds. Citizen Emma ran well from off-the-pace to finish second, while Emotional Kitten held on to third after setting quick fractions of :22.55 and :46.99. Zadina, who finished fourth, and Pletcher's other runner Aventurine, who finished sixth, made late runs from well behind and could be ones to watch in the future.
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight
5.5 furlongs for 2yo New York-breds
Pletcher's first-timer starter Polan was favored, and ran well in the early stages of the race while running the opening quarter mile in :22.03 seconds. However, he tired inside the final five-sixteenths of a mile to finish fifth, allowing Soul House, with Joel Rosario aboard, to rally for a convincing victory. The winner's performance was an eye-catching one, as he found himself some 8 1/2 lengths off of the pace after a poor start. Despite this, he was able to rally on the far outside in the homestretch to give trainer Larry Rivelli his first winner of the meet. Weekend Hideaway tracked Polan through the early stages of the race before opening up a two-length lead in the homestretch before tiring late. Dark Roast raced in the third position for much of the race and wound up in that position at the finish.
-Keelerman
Monday, July 23, 2012
Curlin Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $100,000 Curlin Stakes, to be run on Friday at Saratoga. The nine-furlong race is a minor prep for the $1,000,000 Travers Stakes (gr. I) later in the meet, and has thus drawn a quality field of eight three-year-old colts, including Belmont Stakes (gr. I) runners Street Life (who finished 4th) and Five Sixteen (5th). Other prominent entrants are Pegasus Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Easter Gift, Ohio Derby (gr. III) runner-up Politicallycorrect, and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Ever So Lucky.
1 Politicallycorrect
2 Ever So Lucky
3 Street Life
4 Reload
5 Easter Gift
6 Five Sixteen
7 Love to Run
8 Morgan's Guerrilla
-Keelerman
1 Politicallycorrect
2 Ever So Lucky
3 Street Life
4 Reload
5 Easter Gift
6 Five Sixteen
7 Love to Run
8 Morgan's Guerrilla
-Keelerman
Cougar II Handicap Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $100,000 Cougar II Handicap (gr. III), to be run on Friday at Del Mar. The twelve-furlong marathon has drawn an exceptional field of six, led by three-time grade I winner Richard's Kid, Tokyo City Cup Stakes (gr. III) winner Dynamic Host, and two-time Peruvian classic winner Fly Lexis Fly.
1 Richard's Kid
2 Romp
3 Worth Repeating
4 Dynamic Host
5 Balladry
6 Fly Lexis Fly
-Keelerman
1 Richard's Kid
2 Romp
3 Worth Repeating
4 Dynamic Host
5 Balladry
6 Fly Lexis Fly
-Keelerman
Sunday, July 22, 2012
BERN IDENTITY WINS THE SANFORD STAKES!
Bern Identity turned a ground-saving trip into a strong victory in the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon at Saratoga, rallying past a stubborn Handsome Jack to win the historic juvenile race by 1 1/4 lengths.
Ridden to victory by Rosie Napravnik, Bern Identity broke a bit slowly, but quickly recovered to settle into the fourth position as Handsome Jack set a quick pace of :21.70 and :44.70. Brave Dave was right behind him in second, 2 1/2 lengths clear of Rose Junction, Bern Identity, and Special Jo, all of whom were racing together. Hightail, Onetwentyeight, and John Gordon were the early trailers.
Turning for home, Bern Identity shifted off the rail and came after Handsome Jack, wearing him down inside the eighth pole to secure the victory. Onetwentyeight rallied well for third, while Brave Dave, John Gordon, Special Jo, Hightail, and Rose Junction completed the order of finish.
The final time for six furlongs was 1:11.13. The winner is trained by Kelly Breen and owned by George and Lori Hall. In addition to the winner's share of the $200,000 purse, Bern Identity also earned a $100,000 bonus for winning a Saratoga graded stakes race following a victory in a maiden special weight at Belmont Park.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Rosie Napravnik, Bern Identity broke a bit slowly, but quickly recovered to settle into the fourth position as Handsome Jack set a quick pace of :21.70 and :44.70. Brave Dave was right behind him in second, 2 1/2 lengths clear of Rose Junction, Bern Identity, and Special Jo, all of whom were racing together. Hightail, Onetwentyeight, and John Gordon were the early trailers.
Turning for home, Bern Identity shifted off the rail and came after Handsome Jack, wearing him down inside the eighth pole to secure the victory. Onetwentyeight rallied well for third, while Brave Dave, John Gordon, Special Jo, Hightail, and Rose Junction completed the order of finish.
The final time for six furlongs was 1:11.13. The winner is trained by Kelly Breen and owned by George and Lori Hall. In addition to the winner's share of the $200,000 purse, Bern Identity also earned a $100,000 bonus for winning a Saratoga graded stakes race following a victory in a maiden special weight at Belmont Park.
-Keelerman
SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- July 22nd, 2012
Today's graded stakes race at Saratoga is the $200,000 Sanford Stakes (gr. II), a very old stakes best known as the only race that the immortal Man o' War ever lost. This year's renewal is unlikely to be as dramatic, but the eight two-year-old colts currently scheduled to head to post should put on a good show, and the possibility always exists that the winner could turn out to be a very nice horse.
Saratoga Stakes (gr. II)
Six furlongs on the Saratoga main track
Entries:
The clear favorite is Todd Pletcher's Rose Junction, a super-promising son of Dixie Union that won a five-furlong maiden special weight at Belmont Park by three lengths. Most intriguing is that the runner-up, a filly by the name of Lignite, returned to win a maiden special weight here at Saratoga on opening day. These facts make Rose Junction clearly the colt to beat, and with Javier Castellano aboard, you know he's going to get a great ride.
However, Bern Identity may prove to be just as talented, and a mild upset is definitely a possibility. The Kelly Breen-trainee broke his maiden second time out at Belmont Park by an incredible 13 3/4 lengths. If he can repeat that performance -- or even improve upon it -- there may be no beating the son of Berstein.
Handsome Jack, from the barn of Wesley Ward, is coming off of a strong effort in the 5-1/2 furlong Track Barron Stakes at Belmont Park, in which he rallied from just off the pace to be beaten just a half-length by Todd Pletcher's promising colt Shanghai Bobby, who missed the track record that day by just 0.61 seconds. Considering that Handsome Jack finished 12 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finish, it would appear as though both colts are of the very special kind. Today, I would expect Handsome Jack to once again settle a few lengths off of the early lead before pouncing in the homestretch. A fast pace would greatly help his chances.
Another intriguing runner is Onetwentyeight, the second of the two Pletcher-trainees entered in the Sanford. This colt looked like a nice one when he broke his maiden by five lengths going 5-1/2 furlongs at Belmont Park, and while his final time and fractions were not all that impressive, he did give the impression of being a nice colt, and could eventually prove to be better than his stablemate Rose Junction. However, if he is to win the Sanford, he'll have to avoid getting into a destructive speed duel with Bern Identity -- as well as Rose Junction.
As for the remaining colts, Special Jo broke his maiden first time out by six lengths, but could only manage a tiring third next time out in the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III). Brave Dave won his debut at Calder by 1 1/4 lengths, but his final time was not very quick. John Gordon proved game in breaking his maiden third time out at Churchill Downs by a length, while Hightail finished fourth in the Bashford Manor, but is still a maiden after three starts.
My selection is Bern Identity. While you can never count out Todd Pletcher from these juvenile stakes races, and while Rose Junction is certainly a deserving favorite, I think that Bern Identity had something left in the tank at the finish of his debut victory, and he has trained exceptionally well since then. I'm fairly confident that he will break on top, go straight to the lead, and turn back every challenge en route to another impressive victory.
-Keelerman
Saratoga Stakes (gr. II)
Six furlongs on the Saratoga main track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Handsome Jack | Joel Rosario |
| 2 | Brave Dave | Paco Lopez |
| 3 | Bern Identity | Rosie Napravnik |
| 4 | Hightail | Edgar Prado |
| 5 | Rose Junction | Javier Castellano |
| 6 | Special Jo | Julien Leparoux |
| 7 | Good Tickled | (Scratched) |
| 8 | Onetwentyeight | Rajiv Maragh |
| 9 | John Gordon | Alan Garcia |
The clear favorite is Todd Pletcher's Rose Junction, a super-promising son of Dixie Union that won a five-furlong maiden special weight at Belmont Park by three lengths. Most intriguing is that the runner-up, a filly by the name of Lignite, returned to win a maiden special weight here at Saratoga on opening day. These facts make Rose Junction clearly the colt to beat, and with Javier Castellano aboard, you know he's going to get a great ride.
However, Bern Identity may prove to be just as talented, and a mild upset is definitely a possibility. The Kelly Breen-trainee broke his maiden second time out at Belmont Park by an incredible 13 3/4 lengths. If he can repeat that performance -- or even improve upon it -- there may be no beating the son of Berstein.
Handsome Jack, from the barn of Wesley Ward, is coming off of a strong effort in the 5-1/2 furlong Track Barron Stakes at Belmont Park, in which he rallied from just off the pace to be beaten just a half-length by Todd Pletcher's promising colt Shanghai Bobby, who missed the track record that day by just 0.61 seconds. Considering that Handsome Jack finished 12 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place finish, it would appear as though both colts are of the very special kind. Today, I would expect Handsome Jack to once again settle a few lengths off of the early lead before pouncing in the homestretch. A fast pace would greatly help his chances.
Another intriguing runner is Onetwentyeight, the second of the two Pletcher-trainees entered in the Sanford. This colt looked like a nice one when he broke his maiden by five lengths going 5-1/2 furlongs at Belmont Park, and while his final time and fractions were not all that impressive, he did give the impression of being a nice colt, and could eventually prove to be better than his stablemate Rose Junction. However, if he is to win the Sanford, he'll have to avoid getting into a destructive speed duel with Bern Identity -- as well as Rose Junction.
As for the remaining colts, Special Jo broke his maiden first time out by six lengths, but could only manage a tiring third next time out in the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III). Brave Dave won his debut at Calder by 1 1/4 lengths, but his final time was not very quick. John Gordon proved game in breaking his maiden third time out at Churchill Downs by a length, while Hightail finished fourth in the Bashford Manor, but is still a maiden after three starts.
My selection is Bern Identity. While you can never count out Todd Pletcher from these juvenile stakes races, and while Rose Junction is certainly a deserving favorite, I think that Bern Identity had something left in the tank at the finish of his debut victory, and he has trained exceptionally well since then. I'm fairly confident that he will break on top, go straight to the lead, and turn back every challenge en route to another impressive victory.
-Keelerman
Preliminary Invitees for Whitney Invitational Announced
The preliminary list of invitees for the upcoming $750,000 Whitney Invitational Handicap (gr. I) have been announced, and from the looks of things, the prestigious nine-furlong "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) is going to be one terrific race.
The complete list of fourteen invitees is as follows:
Caixa Eletronica
Endorsement
Flat Out
Fort Larned
Hunters Bay
Hymn Book
Mucho Macho Man
Ron the Greek
Rule
Stay Thirsty
Successful Dan
To Honor and Serve
Wise Dan
Of this group, Stay Thirsty, Wise Dan, Mucho Macho Man, and possibly Caixa Eletronica are expected to skip the race in favor of other races. However, the remaining eleven horses all have the Whitney on their schedules, and barring unforeseen circumstances, all are tentatively pointing toward the race.
The Whitney Invitational is to be run on August 4th at Saratoga. Should any of the original fourteen invitees choose to skip the race, alternate invitees could be entered. Any alternate invitees, as well as weight assignments, will be announced on July 29th.
-Keelerman
The complete list of fourteen invitees is as follows:
Caixa Eletronica
Endorsement
Flat Out
Fort Larned
Hunters Bay
Hymn Book
Mucho Macho Man
Ron the Greek
Rule
Stay Thirsty
Successful Dan
To Honor and Serve
Wise Dan
Of this group, Stay Thirsty, Wise Dan, Mucho Macho Man, and possibly Caixa Eletronica are expected to skip the race in favor of other races. However, the remaining eleven horses all have the Whitney on their schedules, and barring unforeseen circumstances, all are tentatively pointing toward the race.
The Whitney Invitational is to be run on August 4th at Saratoga. Should any of the original fourteen invitees choose to skip the race, alternate invitees could be entered. Any alternate invitees, as well as weight assignments, will be announced on July 29th.
-Keelerman
My Miss Aurelia breezes five furlongs; nearing return to races
Last year's Eclipse champion 2yo filly My Miss Aurelia turned in another strong workout in preparation for her return to racing, breezing five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 on July 22nd at Saratoga.
Trained by Steven Asmussen, the daughter of Smart Strike out of the Sea of Secrets mare My Miss Storm Cat earned her championship last year following impressive victories in the Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), Frizette Stakes (gr. I), and Adirondack Stakes (gr. II). Shortly thereafter, she went to the sidelines with a minor injury, but has been back in training for several months now and seems to be nearing a return to the races. Today's workout was her ninth since returning to training.
Owned by Stonestreet Stables and George Bolton, My Miss Aurelia could quite possibly run sometime during the Saratoga meet, and might even be ready for one of the major stakes races if all goes well.
-Keelerman
Trained by Steven Asmussen, the daughter of Smart Strike out of the Sea of Secrets mare My Miss Storm Cat earned her championship last year following impressive victories in the Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), Frizette Stakes (gr. I), and Adirondack Stakes (gr. II). Shortly thereafter, she went to the sidelines with a minor injury, but has been back in training for several months now and seems to be nearing a return to the races. Today's workout was her ninth since returning to training.
Owned by Stonestreet Stables and George Bolton, My Miss Aurelia could quite possibly run sometime during the Saratoga meet, and might even be ready for one of the major stakes races if all goes well.
-Keelerman
Saturday, July 21, 2012
THE JUVENILES AT SARATOGA -- July 21st, 2012
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight
5-1/2 furlongs for 2yos
This was the first race for juvenile colts held during the 2012 meet. There was only one horse with racing experience among the eight starters, that being Steve Asmussen's Show Some Magic, who was sent off as the favorite at just over 2-1. However, he stumbled a bit at the start, and while he recovered nicely to finish second, he was never a serious threat to the runaway victor Spurious Precision. The eventual winner got off to an alert start and settled just off of the early pace set by Exploring before pulling away in the stretch for a convincing 3 1/2-length victory. The final time of 1:03.49 was less than a second off of the track record, and the colt gave the impression that he wanted to go even further. Well Lawyered, a Todd Pletcher-trainee, ran evenly to finish third.
-Keelerman
5-1/2 furlongs for 2yos
This was the first race for juvenile colts held during the 2012 meet. There was only one horse with racing experience among the eight starters, that being Steve Asmussen's Show Some Magic, who was sent off as the favorite at just over 2-1. However, he stumbled a bit at the start, and while he recovered nicely to finish second, he was never a serious threat to the runaway victor Spurious Precision. The eventual winner got off to an alert start and settled just off of the early pace set by Exploring before pulling away in the stretch for a convincing 3 1/2-length victory. The final time of 1:03.49 was less than a second off of the track record, and the colt gave the impression that he wanted to go even further. Well Lawyered, a Todd Pletcher-trainee, ran evenly to finish third.
-Keelerman
ACCLAMATION WINS THE EDDIE READ STAKES!
Last year's Eclipse champion older male Acclamation brought his winning streak to seven consecutive races when he held off a late bid from Interaction to win the $300,000 Eddie Read Stakes (gr. I) at Del Mar for the second straight year.
Ridden to victory by Patrick Valenzuela, Acclamation broke well and quickly assumed his customary spot on the front end, leading the field of four through slow fractions of :24.97 and :49 flat. Slim Shadey was content to track him in second, followed closely Hog's Hollow and Interaction. Casino Host was the early trailer by a large margin.
Rounding the far turn, Acclamation began to inch away from a tiring Slim Shadey, entering the homestretch he turned in a tremendous burst of acceleration that sewed up the victory. Interaction closed mildly to finish second, but Acclamation proved much the best in the end, stopping the clock in 1:46.86 to earn his sixth grade I victory.
Casino Host secured third in a photo finish over Hog's Hollow, with Slim Shadey completing the order of finish. The winner is trained by Donald Warren.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Patrick Valenzuela, Acclamation broke well and quickly assumed his customary spot on the front end, leading the field of four through slow fractions of :24.97 and :49 flat. Slim Shadey was content to track him in second, followed closely Hog's Hollow and Interaction. Casino Host was the early trailer by a large margin.
Rounding the far turn, Acclamation began to inch away from a tiring Slim Shadey, entering the homestretch he turned in a tremendous burst of acceleration that sewed up the victory. Interaction closed mildly to finish second, but Acclamation proved much the best in the end, stopping the clock in 1:46.86 to earn his sixth grade I victory.
Casino Host secured third in a photo finish over Hog's Hollow, with Slim Shadey completing the order of finish. The winner is trained by Donald Warren.
-Keelerman
ROYAL DELTA WINS THE DELAWARE HANDICAP!
In an epic stretch duel that was nearly as thrilling as the Blind Luck/Havre de Grace match of 2011, heavily favored Royal Delta held off a determined bid from Tiz Miz Sue to win the $750,000 Delaware Handicap (gr. II) by a neck.
Ridden to victory by Mike Smith, Royal Delta got off to a clean start along the rail and settled into the second position early on, about five lengths off of a blazing early pace set by Love and Pride. Cash for Clunkers, Awesome Maria, and Tiz Miz Sue were within a few lengths of Royal Delta, while Daring Reality and Pachattack were racing another ten lengths behind that group.
The opening fractions were stellar, with Love and Pride showing the way through an opening quarter in :22 4/5, a half-mile in :45 3/5, and three-quarters in 1:09 4/5. During this time, Royal Delta, Tiz Miz Sue, and Awesome Maria had been slowly inching up into contention, and as the field made their way around the far turn, they all rallied past the leader with bold runs. However, Awesome Maria soon found nothing left in the tank, leaving Royal Delta and Tiz Miz Sue to settle the race between them. Throughout the length of the stretch, little more than a half-length separated the two fillies, and while it appeared as though Tiz Miz Sue was moving strongest, Royal Delta dug in gamely along the inside to secure a narrow victory.
The final time for ten furlongs was 2:03 2/5. Awesome Maria finished third, while Love and Pride, Daring Reality, Pachattack, and Cash for Clunkers completed the order of finish.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Mike Smith, Royal Delta got off to a clean start along the rail and settled into the second position early on, about five lengths off of a blazing early pace set by Love and Pride. Cash for Clunkers, Awesome Maria, and Tiz Miz Sue were within a few lengths of Royal Delta, while Daring Reality and Pachattack were racing another ten lengths behind that group.
The opening fractions were stellar, with Love and Pride showing the way through an opening quarter in :22 4/5, a half-mile in :45 3/5, and three-quarters in 1:09 4/5. During this time, Royal Delta, Tiz Miz Sue, and Awesome Maria had been slowly inching up into contention, and as the field made their way around the far turn, they all rallied past the leader with bold runs. However, Awesome Maria soon found nothing left in the tank, leaving Royal Delta and Tiz Miz Sue to settle the race between them. Throughout the length of the stretch, little more than a half-length separated the two fillies, and while it appeared as though Tiz Miz Sue was moving strongest, Royal Delta dug in gamely along the inside to secure a narrow victory.
The final time for ten furlongs was 2:03 2/5. Awesome Maria finished third, while Love and Pride, Daring Reality, Pachattack, and Cash for Clunkers completed the order of finish.
-Keelerman
QUESTING WINS THE COACHING CLUB AMERICAN OAKS!
Questing took over the lead from pace-setting Yara around the far turn and pulled away from there to dominate her five rivals in Saratoga's $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I), winning by four lengths despite drifting out in the final sixteenth of a mile.
Ridden to victory by Irad Ortiz Jr., Questing got off to an alert start from post position one, but was quickly beaten to the lead by longshot Yara, who sprinted away early to grab a three-length lead. Questing was racing in second, another four lengths ahead of Funny Proposition, Disposablepleasure, and Zo Impressive, who were all within a length or so of each other. In Lingerie was the early trailer after a slow start.
Following an opening quarter mile in :23.21 seconds, Questing made an early bid to engage Yara for the lead, and the two raced through the first half-mile in :47.65 seconds. Then, as the field made their way around the far turn, In Lingerie, Zo Impressive, and Disposablepleasure made simultaneous bids for the lead. However, they were all turned back by Questing, who burst clear under strong urging in the homestretch to seize command of the race. From there, no one was able to challenge, and Questing coasted home a fairly easy winner while stopping the clock for nine-furlongs in 1:50.30.
Zo Impressive defeated In Lingerie for second, while Disposablepleasure, Funny Proposition, and Yara completed the order of finish. The winner is owned by Godolphin Racing and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Irad Ortiz Jr., Questing got off to an alert start from post position one, but was quickly beaten to the lead by longshot Yara, who sprinted away early to grab a three-length lead. Questing was racing in second, another four lengths ahead of Funny Proposition, Disposablepleasure, and Zo Impressive, who were all within a length or so of each other. In Lingerie was the early trailer after a slow start.
Following an opening quarter mile in :23.21 seconds, Questing made an early bid to engage Yara for the lead, and the two raced through the first half-mile in :47.65 seconds. Then, as the field made their way around the far turn, In Lingerie, Zo Impressive, and Disposablepleasure made simultaneous bids for the lead. However, they were all turned back by Questing, who burst clear under strong urging in the homestretch to seize command of the race. From there, no one was able to challenge, and Questing coasted home a fairly easy winner while stopping the clock for nine-furlongs in 1:50.30.
Zo Impressive defeated In Lingerie for second, while Disposablepleasure, Funny Proposition, and Yara completed the order of finish. The winner is owned by Godolphin Racing and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin.
-Keelerman
Lake George Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 Lake George Stakes (gr. II), to be run on July 25th at Saratoga. The 1 1/16th turf race for three-year-old fillies has drawn a large and competitive field of nine, led by Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) winner Stephanie's Kitten, Regret Stakes (gr. III) winner Centre Court, and Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) winner Dancing Solo.
1 Elusive Rumour
2 Stephanie's Kitten
3 Centre Court
4 Better Lucky
5 Dancing Solo
6 Samitar
7 Somali Lemonade
8 Medolina
9 Harbor Mist
-Keelerman
1 Elusive Rumour
2 Stephanie's Kitten
3 Centre Court
4 Better Lucky
5 Dancing Solo
6 Samitar
7 Somali Lemonade
8 Medolina
9 Harbor Mist
-Keelerman
BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- July 21st, 2012
With Saratoga and Del Mar having finally begun their much-anticipated summer meets, the yearly "lull period" in horse racing -- that 1 1/2 months between the Belmont Stakes and the Saratoga/Del Mar season -- is finally over. As a result, the quality of horse racing across the country will rise dramatically during the ensuing weeks, beginning this weekend. All told, there are two grade Is, two grade IIs, and two grade IIIs to be run this Saturday, including the prestigious Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I), Eddie Read Stakes (gr. I), and Delaware Handicap (gr. II). We'll begin our analysis of this incredible racing day by looking over the $300,000 Eddie Read at Del Mar, where last year's Eclipse champion older male Acclamation is scheduled to make his second start of the season.
Eddie Read Stakes (gr. I)
9 furlongs on the Del Mar turf course
Entries:
The heavy favorite on the morning line is, of course, Acclamation, who brings a six-race winning streak into the Eddie Read. Trained by Donald Warren, the terrific six-year-old son of Unusual Heat began his streak last May when he won the Jim Murray Handicap (gr. II) at Hollywood Park. He then proceeded to rattle off victories in the Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap (gr. I), Eddie Read Stakes (gr. I), TVG Pacific Classic Stakes (gr. I), and Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship Stakes (gr. II) before going to the sidelines with a minor injury. He returned on June 9th to win the Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap for a third consecutive year, and appears to be on track to win his second straight Eddie Read. Being the lone front-runner in this race, he should be able to get to the front without difficulty, set a slow pace, and hold off the closers with a brilliant burst of acceleration.
Slim Shadey, runner-up to Acclamation in the 2012 Charles Whittingham, will likely be the second choice despite the fact that he is entering the Eddie Read off of a fifth-place finish in the United Nations Stakes (gr. I) just two weeks ago. In that race, he found himself too far off of a slow pace, and when the leader closed his final eighth in a practically unheard of :11.27 seconds to win the race, there was no way that Slim Shadey could have made up any great amount of ground. So given the circumstances, I would expect Slim Shadey to perform much better today, although the distance of this race probably favors Acclamation slightly more than this colt.
Interaction will probably receive some wagering support as well, for the Ronald McAnally-trainee was a three-time group I winner in his native Argentina. He has only made three starts in the United States thus far, disappointing in a pair of graded stakes events last summer before returning from a long layoff to win a nine-furlong turf allowance race at Hollywood Park last month. He clearly possesses a remarkable turn of foot, but his late-running style may be compromised by the expected pace scenario of today's race. Nevertheless, he looks like a promising runner, and he could be a good one further down the road, regardless of how he performs today.
The longshots are Casino Host and Hog's Hollow. The latter colt required fifteen starts to break his maiden, but has been a decent competitor since then. However, he has been beaten by both Interaction and Slim Shadey this year, and may not be quite as good as some of the other runners in this race. As for Casino Host, he won the Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Handicap (gr. II) back in April at Fair Grounds -- defeating several quality horses in the process -- but was soundly beaten in his last two starts and may not be in his best form right now.
My selections are:
1 Acclamation
2 Interaction
3 Slim Shadey
4 Casino Host
5 Hog's Hollow
Other Races of Note
At Delaware Park . . .
Race 10: The $750,000 Delaware Handicap (gr. II) has drawn an impressive field of runners, and the race is shaping up to be almost as good as last year's epic Blind Luck/Havre de Grace battle. Royal Delta is the morning line favorite this year off of a dominating victory in the Fleur de Lis Handicap (gr. II), and last year's Eclipse champion three-year-old filly should relish the distance of today's race. Her main competition is likely to come from Awesome Maria, a super-talented Todd Pletcher-trainee that won six straight graded stakes races before finishing third last time out in the Odgen Phipps Handicap (gr. I). Seeing that she defeated Royal Delta by eight lengths in the Sabin Stakes (gr. II) this February -- their mutual 2012 debut -- it's clear that Awesome Maria has at least a decent chance at upsetting the favorite, although the distance is almost certainly in Royal Delta's favor. Other contenders are Pachattack, third in last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I); Cash for Clunkers, who finished second in the above-mentioned Odgen Phipps Handicap; and Love and Pride, the impressive winner of the Obeah Stakes (gr. III), a local prep for this race.
At Colonial Downs . . .
Race 8: The $150,000 Virginia Oaks (gr. III) may not have drawn a field of proven stakes winners -- actually, none of the seven entrants have won so much as a restricted stakes -- but it should nevertheless be an interesting race to watch, and the possibility exists that a nice filly or two could emerge from this spot. The favorite will likely be Zultanite, who is coming off of a second-place effort in the Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) and a third in the Sands Point Stakes (gr. II), to very good fillies on both occasions. Although she has only won a single race from eight starts, she strikes me as a talented runner that should pick up a fair number of stakes races during the coming months. Volcat, gate-to-wire winner of a nine-furlong turf allowance race last month at Churchill Downs, probably has the best chance at pulling off an upset.
Race 9: Will Silver Max bring his winning streak to six? That is the biggest question regarding the $600,000 Virginia Derby (gr. II), which has drawn a simply terrific field of three-year-old turf stars. Silver Max is 4-5 on the morning line thanks to his impressive winning streak, and his terrific natural speed gives him a large tactical edge over his rivals. Perhaps the only thing that can get him beat today is the ten-furlong distance, which is a substantial three-sixteenths of a mile farther than he has ever run before. If he does find the distance a bit too long, then there are plenty of other talented horses that could pick up the pieces, including the talented Team Valor-owned colt Lucky Chappy, the consistent Easy Crossing, the tough-as-nails Optimizer, and Silver Max's own stablemate, Finnegans Wake.
At Saratoga . . .
Race 10: Three-year-old fillies are the stars of the Saturday card, with six of them scheduled to head to post for the 96th running of the $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I). My detailed analysis of the race can be read here: http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/07/saratoga-stakes-analysis-july-21st-2012.html
-Keelerman
Eddie Read Stakes (gr. I)
9 furlongs on the Del Mar turf course
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Hog's Hollow | Rafael Bejarano |
| 2 | Interaction | Brice Blanc |
| 3 | Acclamation | Patrick Valenzuela |
| 4 | Casino Host | Joseph Talamo |
| 5 | Slim Shadey | Garrett Gomez |
The heavy favorite on the morning line is, of course, Acclamation, who brings a six-race winning streak into the Eddie Read. Trained by Donald Warren, the terrific six-year-old son of Unusual Heat began his streak last May when he won the Jim Murray Handicap (gr. II) at Hollywood Park. He then proceeded to rattle off victories in the Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap (gr. I), Eddie Read Stakes (gr. I), TVG Pacific Classic Stakes (gr. I), and Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship Stakes (gr. II) before going to the sidelines with a minor injury. He returned on June 9th to win the Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap for a third consecutive year, and appears to be on track to win his second straight Eddie Read. Being the lone front-runner in this race, he should be able to get to the front without difficulty, set a slow pace, and hold off the closers with a brilliant burst of acceleration.
Slim Shadey, runner-up to Acclamation in the 2012 Charles Whittingham, will likely be the second choice despite the fact that he is entering the Eddie Read off of a fifth-place finish in the United Nations Stakes (gr. I) just two weeks ago. In that race, he found himself too far off of a slow pace, and when the leader closed his final eighth in a practically unheard of :11.27 seconds to win the race, there was no way that Slim Shadey could have made up any great amount of ground. So given the circumstances, I would expect Slim Shadey to perform much better today, although the distance of this race probably favors Acclamation slightly more than this colt.
Interaction will probably receive some wagering support as well, for the Ronald McAnally-trainee was a three-time group I winner in his native Argentina. He has only made three starts in the United States thus far, disappointing in a pair of graded stakes events last summer before returning from a long layoff to win a nine-furlong turf allowance race at Hollywood Park last month. He clearly possesses a remarkable turn of foot, but his late-running style may be compromised by the expected pace scenario of today's race. Nevertheless, he looks like a promising runner, and he could be a good one further down the road, regardless of how he performs today.
The longshots are Casino Host and Hog's Hollow. The latter colt required fifteen starts to break his maiden, but has been a decent competitor since then. However, he has been beaten by both Interaction and Slim Shadey this year, and may not be quite as good as some of the other runners in this race. As for Casino Host, he won the Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Handicap (gr. II) back in April at Fair Grounds -- defeating several quality horses in the process -- but was soundly beaten in his last two starts and may not be in his best form right now.
My selections are:
1 Acclamation
2 Interaction
3 Slim Shadey
4 Casino Host
5 Hog's Hollow
Other Races of Note
At Delaware Park . . .
Race 10: The $750,000 Delaware Handicap (gr. II) has drawn an impressive field of runners, and the race is shaping up to be almost as good as last year's epic Blind Luck/Havre de Grace battle. Royal Delta is the morning line favorite this year off of a dominating victory in the Fleur de Lis Handicap (gr. II), and last year's Eclipse champion three-year-old filly should relish the distance of today's race. Her main competition is likely to come from Awesome Maria, a super-talented Todd Pletcher-trainee that won six straight graded stakes races before finishing third last time out in the Odgen Phipps Handicap (gr. I). Seeing that she defeated Royal Delta by eight lengths in the Sabin Stakes (gr. II) this February -- their mutual 2012 debut -- it's clear that Awesome Maria has at least a decent chance at upsetting the favorite, although the distance is almost certainly in Royal Delta's favor. Other contenders are Pachattack, third in last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I); Cash for Clunkers, who finished second in the above-mentioned Odgen Phipps Handicap; and Love and Pride, the impressive winner of the Obeah Stakes (gr. III), a local prep for this race.
At Colonial Downs . . .
Race 8: The $150,000 Virginia Oaks (gr. III) may not have drawn a field of proven stakes winners -- actually, none of the seven entrants have won so much as a restricted stakes -- but it should nevertheless be an interesting race to watch, and the possibility exists that a nice filly or two could emerge from this spot. The favorite will likely be Zultanite, who is coming off of a second-place effort in the Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) and a third in the Sands Point Stakes (gr. II), to very good fillies on both occasions. Although she has only won a single race from eight starts, she strikes me as a talented runner that should pick up a fair number of stakes races during the coming months. Volcat, gate-to-wire winner of a nine-furlong turf allowance race last month at Churchill Downs, probably has the best chance at pulling off an upset.
Race 9: Will Silver Max bring his winning streak to six? That is the biggest question regarding the $600,000 Virginia Derby (gr. II), which has drawn a simply terrific field of three-year-old turf stars. Silver Max is 4-5 on the morning line thanks to his impressive winning streak, and his terrific natural speed gives him a large tactical edge over his rivals. Perhaps the only thing that can get him beat today is the ten-furlong distance, which is a substantial three-sixteenths of a mile farther than he has ever run before. If he does find the distance a bit too long, then there are plenty of other talented horses that could pick up the pieces, including the talented Team Valor-owned colt Lucky Chappy, the consistent Easy Crossing, the tough-as-nails Optimizer, and Silver Max's own stablemate, Finnegans Wake.
At Saratoga . . .
Race 10: Three-year-old fillies are the stars of the Saturday card, with six of them scheduled to head to post for the 96th running of the $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I). My detailed analysis of the race can be read here: http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/07/saratoga-stakes-analysis-july-21st-2012.html
-Keelerman
SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- July 21st, 2012
There may be only one graded stakes race on Saratoga's Saturday card, but it's a big one -- the $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I) for three-year-old fillies. And while the field may be somewhat lacking in terms of numbers -- only six have entered -- it is certainly not lacking in talent, as four graded stakes runners are entered.
The distance of this race is nine furlongs, a typical distance for sophomore fillies to traverse. As a matter of fact, the morning line favorite, Zo Impressive, is coming off of a victory in the nine-furlong Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park. But there are a couple of things to remember when analyzing the form of horses coming out of the Mother Goose. First off, that race is held at Belmont Park -- and believe it or not, nine furlong races at Belmont are one-turn events. At Saratoga, and just about every other major racetrack in the country, they are two-turn races. To date, Zo Impressive has run in just one two-turn race, finishing second behind Grace Hall in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (gr. II) back in March. That's not to say that she can't win a two-turn race, for she certainly looks capable of handling the added distance, but there's one other thing to remember when examining her Mother Goose performance. The rail was bad that day at Belmont, and the two favorites -- grade I winners Contested and Believe You Can -- both ended up running over the deepest part of the track, while Zo Impressive stayed on the outside throughout the race.
The same thing goes for Disposablepleasure, who also rallied on the outside in the Mother Goose to be beaten just three-quarters of a length. The fact that today's race is a two-turn affair shouldn't hurt her chances at all, for she has proven herself in such races on several occasions, but her Mother Goose effort may have been slightly flattered by the bad rail. On the other hand, one can't deny that she has been improving with every start, and couldn't really be training any better.
In Lingerie is one of the more intriguing horses in the race, as she has won three of her four starts and enters the Coaching Club off of a strong victory in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) at Pimlico, where she defeated Disposablepleasure despite stumbling badly at the start. However, she missed some training as the result of minor injuries suffered during the race, and while she has turned in five solid workouts since then, she is nevertheless entering this race off a two-month layoff and may not be at her very best. On the other hand, being a daughter of Empire Maker, I would expect In Lingerie to continue to improve as the year progresses, and it's possible that she is sitting on another strong move forward. Interestingly, she was beaten soundly by Zo Impressive in an allowance race back in February, back before either were proven in stakes company.
One horse that could potentially pull off an upset is Questing, a daughter of Hard Spun owned by Goldolphin Racing. She began her career in Europe, where she won a maiden race and placed in a pair of group III events while being trained by John Gosden. She then shipped to the United States for a start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), where she finished fifth behind runaway winner My Miss Aurelia, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths for third. She was then transferred to the barn of Kiaran McLaughlin, for whom she performed rather poorly in a pair of turf allowance races. A switch to dirt proved the key to success, as her next start yielded a 3 3/4-length victory in a one-mile allowance race at Belmont Park. Her impressive effort earned her a Beyer speed figure of 105, which towers over anything that the other Coaching Club contenders have earned. Whether she can repeat that performance while stretching out around two turns is a legitimate question, but she seems to have plenty of raw talent, and a strong performance would not surprise me.
The longshots in this race are Funny Proposition and Yara. The first-mentioned filly won a two-turn dirt allowance race at Churchill Downs on May 4th, then finished a dull eighth in the Regret Stakes (gr. III) over the Churchill turf after hopping at the start. She is certainly eligible to improve while returning to dirt, but she is unproven at this level and would have to improve in order to contend. Nevertheless, she should secure a decent trip just behind the early leaders, and she could get first run in the homestretch.
As for Yara, she defeated the highly-talented Grace Hall in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) on February 25th, but has been extremely disappointing in three starts since then, which includes a dismal thirteenth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I). If she were to run back to her Davona Dale effort, she should contend for a major piece of the purse, but it's hard to label her a contender off of her last few efforts.
My selection is Questing. I view her as the lone speed in the race, which should enable her to grab the early lead without any difficulties and play a nice little game of "Catch me if you can!" with her five rivals. Zo Impressive, Disposablepleasure, and In Lingerie should all make decent runs at her, but I feel that Questing's tactical advantage, coupled with her obvious talent, will enable her to pull off the upset.
-Keelerman
The distance of this race is nine furlongs, a typical distance for sophomore fillies to traverse. As a matter of fact, the morning line favorite, Zo Impressive, is coming off of a victory in the nine-furlong Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park. But there are a couple of things to remember when analyzing the form of horses coming out of the Mother Goose. First off, that race is held at Belmont Park -- and believe it or not, nine furlong races at Belmont are one-turn events. At Saratoga, and just about every other major racetrack in the country, they are two-turn races. To date, Zo Impressive has run in just one two-turn race, finishing second behind Grace Hall in the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (gr. II) back in March. That's not to say that she can't win a two-turn race, for she certainly looks capable of handling the added distance, but there's one other thing to remember when examining her Mother Goose performance. The rail was bad that day at Belmont, and the two favorites -- grade I winners Contested and Believe You Can -- both ended up running over the deepest part of the track, while Zo Impressive stayed on the outside throughout the race.
The same thing goes for Disposablepleasure, who also rallied on the outside in the Mother Goose to be beaten just three-quarters of a length. The fact that today's race is a two-turn affair shouldn't hurt her chances at all, for she has proven herself in such races on several occasions, but her Mother Goose effort may have been slightly flattered by the bad rail. On the other hand, one can't deny that she has been improving with every start, and couldn't really be training any better.
In Lingerie is one of the more intriguing horses in the race, as she has won three of her four starts and enters the Coaching Club off of a strong victory in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) at Pimlico, where she defeated Disposablepleasure despite stumbling badly at the start. However, she missed some training as the result of minor injuries suffered during the race, and while she has turned in five solid workouts since then, she is nevertheless entering this race off a two-month layoff and may not be at her very best. On the other hand, being a daughter of Empire Maker, I would expect In Lingerie to continue to improve as the year progresses, and it's possible that she is sitting on another strong move forward. Interestingly, she was beaten soundly by Zo Impressive in an allowance race back in February, back before either were proven in stakes company.
One horse that could potentially pull off an upset is Questing, a daughter of Hard Spun owned by Goldolphin Racing. She began her career in Europe, where she won a maiden race and placed in a pair of group III events while being trained by John Gosden. She then shipped to the United States for a start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), where she finished fifth behind runaway winner My Miss Aurelia, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths for third. She was then transferred to the barn of Kiaran McLaughlin, for whom she performed rather poorly in a pair of turf allowance races. A switch to dirt proved the key to success, as her next start yielded a 3 3/4-length victory in a one-mile allowance race at Belmont Park. Her impressive effort earned her a Beyer speed figure of 105, which towers over anything that the other Coaching Club contenders have earned. Whether she can repeat that performance while stretching out around two turns is a legitimate question, but she seems to have plenty of raw talent, and a strong performance would not surprise me.
The longshots in this race are Funny Proposition and Yara. The first-mentioned filly won a two-turn dirt allowance race at Churchill Downs on May 4th, then finished a dull eighth in the Regret Stakes (gr. III) over the Churchill turf after hopping at the start. She is certainly eligible to improve while returning to dirt, but she is unproven at this level and would have to improve in order to contend. Nevertheless, she should secure a decent trip just behind the early leaders, and she could get first run in the homestretch.
As for Yara, she defeated the highly-talented Grace Hall in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) on February 25th, but has been extremely disappointing in three starts since then, which includes a dismal thirteenth-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I). If she were to run back to her Davona Dale effort, she should contend for a major piece of the purse, but it's hard to label her a contender off of her last few efforts.
My selection is Questing. I view her as the lone speed in the race, which should enable her to grab the early lead without any difficulties and play a nice little game of "Catch me if you can!" with her five rivals. Zo Impressive, Disposablepleasure, and In Lingerie should all make decent runs at her, but I feel that Questing's tactical advantage, coupled with her obvious talent, will enable her to pull off the upset.
-Keelerman
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