Soldat turned back heavy favorite To Honor and Serve at the top of the stretch to win the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) by 2 1/2 lengths.
Ridden by Alan Garcia, Soldat went straight to the lead, battling with El Grayling through fractions of :24.34 and :47.99. To Honor and Serve was poised on their outside in third, followed by Gourmet Dinner.
To Honor and Serve made a bold run to challenge for the lead on the far turn, but Soldat turned him back easily. Gourmet Dinner was coming on the outside, but Soldat proved too good, crossing the wire in 1:50.23.
Gourmet Dinner finished well clear of To Honor and Serve, who weakened badly in the stretch to finish third. Bowman's Causeway rallied for fourth.
-Keelerman
Saturday, February 26, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 26th, 2011
The Triple Crown Trail takes a sharp turn today. Some horses will negotiate this turn to perfection and continue on their way toward the Kentucky Derby. Others will take the turn a bit wide and lose some ground; possibly setting themselves too far back to get into contention.
The big question is how will To Honor and Serve take that turn? Unraced since November, the brilliant colt makes his three-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon. Last year, he flew to victories in the Nashua and Remsen Stakes (both grade II), defeating Mucho Macho Man both times. Mucho Macho Man has since come back to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and mark himself as a serious contender for the Triple Crown.
Will To Honor and Serve do the same and prove that he is as good as he was at two? Or will he falter on the turn as so many classy two-year-olds before him have? We find out this afternoon.
FEATURE RACE ---- Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)
Gulfstream Park/9 Furlongs/$400,000 Purse/Dirt
Competition will not be lacking when To Honor and Serve enters the starting gate.
Lined up against him are stakes winners Soldat, Gourmet Dinner, and Racing Aptitude. Promising maiden and allowance race winners Casper’s Touch, Shackleford, and Bowman’s Causeway are ready to prove themselves as quality Triple Crown contenders. Throw in the consistent El Grayling and you have one of the finest fields for sophomores so far this year.
Here are the post positions. . .
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Soldat 2-1 120
2 Gourmet Dinner 5-1 120
3 El Grayling 15-1 116
4 Casper’s Touch 6-1 116
5 Bowman’s Causeway 20-1 116
6 Racing Aptitude 30-1 120
7 To Honor and Serve 8-5 122
8 Shackleford 8-1 116
To begin, there is Soldat. The son of War Front was a fine runner on turf last year, winning the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III) and running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). However, he was tried on dirt in his 2011 debut and won by nearly eleven lengths over a sloppy track, which makes one wonder if he is actually better on dirt. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, he will have to prove himself capable of winning over a fast track today, as well as overcome starting from the rail. His workouts have been quite sharp. Alan Garcia will ride.
In gate two we find Gourmet Dinner, by far the richest of the eight three-year-olds in this race. The consistent colt won his first three races at Calder Race Course, including two stakes events, before running second in the In Reality Stakes. However, he rebounded off that loss with a sharp victory in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, which guaranteed him a spot in the Kentucky Derby, should he remain healthy. Two losses followed his Jackpot victory; a fourth in the grade I CashCall Futurity and a third in the Holy Bull Stakes. Neither performance was all that bad, and it can be argued that the Holy Bull was actually his best race. He has been training quite well for this race and should run his best race. Trained by Steve Standridge, the son of Trippi will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
The number three horse is El Grayling. A son of El Prado, he has had a fairly consistent career while competing against some very good horses. He has only won once, but finished fifth in the Sunday Silence Stakes while beaten just a half-length. He also finished second in a Churchill Downs allowance race behind Brethren and third in a Gulfstream allowance behind Shackleford and Casper’s Touch. Trained by Michael Maker, he would have to show some improvement if he is to contend here, but I wouldn’t count him out entirely. Rajiv Maragh has the mount.
This brings us to Casper’s Touch, the unlucky runner-up in a recent allowance race. A son of Touch Gold, the promising youngster finished fourth in his first start before shipping to England to run in Ascot’s Chesham Stakes. He finished third in a field of twelve, a fine performance indeed. He did not start again until November of 2010, when he won a one-mile main track allowance race at Churchill Downs in sharp fashion. This made him the even-money favorite in the above-mentioned allowance race, where he was bumped very hard in the stretch but still managed to re-rally for second. With a little more luck today, I expect him to run quite well. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, he will be ridden by Alex Solis.
Now we come to Bowman’s Causeway, one of the longer shots in this race. The son of Giant’s Causeway began his career in September 2010, running third in a maiden special weight behind Mucho Macho Man. This good effort made him the favorite in his next start, a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Sent straight to the lead, he set a quick pace before tiring late and finishing second behind Nacho Business. Finally, twelve days later and just fifteen days ago, he broke his maiden going nine furlongs by a length. Trained by Patrick Biancone, he will be making his third start in just four weeks, but I think he may surprise a few people and run well this afternoon. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Racing Aptitude drew gate six. The longshot in this race, he has never won a race on dirt and has never earned a Beyer speed figure higher than 78. His highest Beyer on dirt was a 29. He finished fifth and seventh in his last two races, but give him credit: in his last start, the Dania Beach Stakes, he was forced to steady twice and was only beaten 4 ¾ lengths. Trained by Howard Tesher, I doubt that he will be much of a factor today but perhaps he can hang on for a piece of the purse. I expect him to be not too far off the lead. Jose Lezcano has the mount.
This brings us to To Honor and Serve. As I mentioned above, the son of Bernardini won the Nashua and Remsen Stakes last year in sharp fashion, but he hasn’t raced since then. Trained by Bill Mott, the chestnut colt is one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He should run a good race today, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t quite show his best form this afternoon. After all, it’s been three months since his last race and although his workouts have been sharp, he may come up just a bit short in the stretch. However, his class alone should be enough to secure him second, if not first. John Velazquez will ride.
Finally, there is Shackleford. The colt has made three starts, winning four of them. Most recently, he won a nine furlong allowance race in which he defeated Casper’s Touch and El Grayling. The front-running colt will have to use his speed early if he does not want to get caught wide on the first turn. Trained by Dale Romans, I wouldn’t count him out but I can’t see him winning. He will be ridden by J. Castanon.
I have gone back and forth . . . and back and forth . . . and back and forth between my picks. I’ve debated for days whether or not To Honor and Serve will be sharp enough to win. Finally, I decided on these selections:
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Soldat
3 Gourmet Dinner
4 Bowman’s Causeway
5 Casper’s Touch
6 Shackleford
7 Racing Aptitude
8 El Grayling
I’ve finally decided to go with To Honor and Serve and hope that his class sees him through. There’s no doubt that it will be a tough race to win, but I think that he’s up to it.
As for Gourmet Dinner, I really like him but he strikes me as a colt who doesn’t want much further than a mile and a sixteenth. Nine furlongs is probably within his range, but I expect him to tire just a bit in the homestretch.
Of course, J.R. sees it differently.
J.R. had quite a bit of success last week beating favorites – he selected Mucho Macho Man to win the Risen Star and Archarcharch to win the Southwest Stakes. He’s going to try and do it again with Gourmet Dinner. He feels that Gourmet Dinner ran a magnificent race in the Holy Bull and that he will catch To Honor and Serve inside the sixteenth pole to win by a half-length. He feels that Soldat will not run as well on a fast track as he did on a sloppy track last time out and will disappoint while heavily bet.
His picks are thus:
1 Gourmet Dinner
2 To Honor and Serve
3 Soldat
4 Casper’s Touch
5 Bowman’s Causeway
6 Shackleford
7 El Grayling
8 Racing Aptitude
We’ll see what happens!
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
There is a fine set of supporting stakes races on the Fountain of Youth undercard, led by the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II). But before I begin discussing it, allow me to note that Crossbow has scratched. He shall instead await the Gotham Stakes next Saturday and run there.
Of the remaining entries, the morning line favorite is Travelin Man. The colt has made but one start thus far, breaking his maiden impressively going six furlongs over this track on January 6th. He won by 7 ¼ lengths and stopped the clock in 1:09.09. The performance was admirable, and he should run well today.
Other major contenders are Flashpoint, Madman Diaries, Black N Beauty, Manicero, and Royal Currier. Flashpoint broke his maiden sharply first time out, but has not started since. Madman Diaries set the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) before tiring to fourth. Black N Beauty finished fifth in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out, but won a one-mile allowance race impressively before that. Manicero has won four straight, but seven furlongs may be a bit of a stretch. Finally, Royal Hughes ran second to Fort Hughes last time out in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes.
It’s a nearly impossible race to handicap, but I must do so because it is one of this week’s contest races. Therefore, here are my selections. . .
1 Leave of Absence
2 Travelin Man
3 Royal Currier
4 Flashpoint
5 Manicero
6 Black N Beauty
7 Razmataz
8 Madman Diaries
9 Little Drama
It is a bit daring to pick Leave of Absence, but I decided to do so because he is the only colt in this race who has NOT shown early turn of foot. I expect a ridiculous speed duel for the early lead, enabling Leave of Absence to come flying late to win.
J.R., however, will select Razmataz. He feels that the colt will be overlooked in the betting, and will come from a few lengths off the lead to win in a photo finish. He likes the fact that the colt is trained by Todd Pletcher.
His picks are:
1 Razmataz
2 Royal Currier
3 Flashpoint
4 Leave of Absence
5 Little Drama
6 Travelin Man
7 Madman Diaries
8 Manicero
9 Black N Beauty
I feel confident that this race will enable me to catch up to J.R. in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest. However, he is equally confident that this race will enable him to build up an uncatchable lead. We’ll see.
The Borderland Derby at Sunland Park, in which Mine That Bird ran while prepping for his victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby, is the final race which J.R. and I shall handicap today.
The race has drawn a field of ten, with Special Kid the morning line favorite. He broke his maiden going a mile and a sixteenth at Santa Anita Park, winning a maiden special weight race by a nose with a desperate late run. Fusa Code, third in that race, is also running in the Borderland Derby even though he has never won a race.
Another logical contender is Expecting Cash. Most recently, he finished third behind Decisive Moment and Su Casa G Casa in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs. It was a fine performance and should set him up well here.
It’s My Party won a one-mile allowance race last time out and is stakes placed. Orion Xpress broke his maiden going six furlongs in 1:10.52. Either of them could run quite well.
Here are my selections:
1 It’s My Party
2 Special Kid
3 Expecting Cash
4 Orion Xpress
5 Mason’s Pegasus
6 Fusa Code
7 R Skydiver
8 What’s the Toccet
9 Carsoncitygambler
10 Behold de Buy
And here are J.R.’s:
1 Orion Xpress
2 Expecting Cash
3 Special Kid
4 R Skydiver
5 It’s My Party
6 Mason’s Pegasus
7 Fusa Code
8 Behold de Buy
9 What’s the Toccet
10 Carsoncitygambler
Neither of us have a very good feel for the race, but that is what we came up with. We’ll see what happens!
The one-mile Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), run at Gulfstream Park two races prior to the Fountain of Youth Stakes, drew a field of nine. However, Roxy Gap has scratched, leaving the race with eight runners.
The morning line favorite is Dancinginherdreams. The fine filly swept to two easy victories as a juvenile, including a 5 ¼ length triumph in the grade II Pocahontas Stakes. However, she lost her first race as a three-year-old, rallying strongly but failing to catch Pomeroy’s Pistol in the grade II Forward Gal Stakes. She should be sharper today.
Speaking of Pomeroy’s Pistol, she will try to beat Dancinginherdreams yet again today. She has twice proven herself to be stakes caliber; not only did she win the Forward Gal she also ran second in Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) two starts back. She will likely set the pace this afternoon.
R Heat Lightning is the other obvious contender. She won the grade I Spinaway Stakes at two and ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), but in her 2011 debut ran fourth in the Forward Gal. Like Dancinginherdreams, she should run better today.
Then there is the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise. The 5-2 favorite is Indian Winter, who finished third in the grade I Del Mar Futurity as a juvenile and won the San Pedro Stakes last time out. He will have to prove himself in a route race today, but I believe that he will do so impressively.
The third race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday merits attention as well. The race has drawn a pair of very promising colts in Arch Traveler and Nacho Business. Both are entering the race off of sharp maiden victories and I would not be surprised to see them run 1-2. Other notable colts include Washington’s Rules, Private Prize, and Cool Blue Red Hot. This race may turn out a Florida Derby contender or two.
The sixth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday is also quite notable. The 8-5 morning line favorite, San Pablo, enters off of a strong second to Washington’s Rules in a maiden special weight. He may be something special, so I advise you to keep an eye on him!
The fifth race at Fair Grounds on Saturday is also noteworthy. The favorites at 6-5 are Sour and Left, who will run coupled. Sour and Lumberyard Jack are the colts that I will be watching. Both are coming off of victories in one-mile and seventy yards maiden special weight races, and both could mark themselves as potential Louisiana Derby contenders with a victory.
The Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park has drawn a fine field of seven; however, there have been two scratches. The morning line favorite is J J’s Lucky Train, a very consistent colt who has finished second in both the Count Fleet Stakes and Whirlaway Stakes this year. He should finish in the exacta today without a doubt.
His main competition will likely come from Bandbox. The colt won his first three races, which included a pair of stakes races, before finishing fourth in the Remsen Stakes after a rough trip. This will be his first start since then, but he should be up to running a winning race.
The ultra-consistent Wicked Thunder is the third choice. He has made nine starts, won four of them, and never finished worse than second. In his most recent race, the Dancing Count Stakes at Laurel Park, he won by a nose in a thrilling stretch duel. Seeing that he has experience over this track, he may be good enough to upset the two favorites.
The second race at Oaklawn Park on Sunday should prove interesting as well. A mile and a sixteenth allowance race for three-year-olds and up, the morning line favorite is Commander. The colt ran third behind Alternation and Elite Alex two starts back, but finished a badly beaten sixth in a January 29th allowance race. On the other hand, his sixth place finish came only two weeks after his tough third, so perhaps the extra rest between his January 29th start and tomorrow’s race will help him run better.
Supreme Ruler should also run well. 7-2 on the morning line, he broke his maiden with a tremendous late run first time out on January 15th. This will be his first start since then. Expect to see him flying late.
Finally, we come to the eighth race at Santa Anita Park on Saturday. A one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds, the favorite is Mr. Commons, who broke his maiden second time out at Santa Anita. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on the downhill turf course, he drew off to a 5 ½ length victory in a brilliant 1:12.14. If he can transfer that form to the main track, he will be tough to beat.
Also, keep an eye on Chiloquin, who defeated next-time-out winner Drink at Buster’s in a January 16th allowance race at Santa Anita,
And finally, after three thousand-plus words, that is all I have to say. Now go out and enjoy a fabulous set of races!
-Keelerman
The big question is how will To Honor and Serve take that turn? Unraced since November, the brilliant colt makes his three-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon. Last year, he flew to victories in the Nashua and Remsen Stakes (both grade II), defeating Mucho Macho Man both times. Mucho Macho Man has since come back to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and mark himself as a serious contender for the Triple Crown.
Will To Honor and Serve do the same and prove that he is as good as he was at two? Or will he falter on the turn as so many classy two-year-olds before him have? We find out this afternoon.
FEATURE RACE ---- Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)
Gulfstream Park/9 Furlongs/$400,000 Purse/Dirt
Competition will not be lacking when To Honor and Serve enters the starting gate.
Lined up against him are stakes winners Soldat, Gourmet Dinner, and Racing Aptitude. Promising maiden and allowance race winners Casper’s Touch, Shackleford, and Bowman’s Causeway are ready to prove themselves as quality Triple Crown contenders. Throw in the consistent El Grayling and you have one of the finest fields for sophomores so far this year.
Here are the post positions. . .
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Soldat 2-1 120
2 Gourmet Dinner 5-1 120
3 El Grayling 15-1 116
4 Casper’s Touch 6-1 116
5 Bowman’s Causeway 20-1 116
6 Racing Aptitude 30-1 120
7 To Honor and Serve 8-5 122
8 Shackleford 8-1 116
To begin, there is Soldat. The son of War Front was a fine runner on turf last year, winning the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III) and running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). However, he was tried on dirt in his 2011 debut and won by nearly eleven lengths over a sloppy track, which makes one wonder if he is actually better on dirt. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, he will have to prove himself capable of winning over a fast track today, as well as overcome starting from the rail. His workouts have been quite sharp. Alan Garcia will ride.
In gate two we find Gourmet Dinner, by far the richest of the eight three-year-olds in this race. The consistent colt won his first three races at Calder Race Course, including two stakes events, before running second in the In Reality Stakes. However, he rebounded off that loss with a sharp victory in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, which guaranteed him a spot in the Kentucky Derby, should he remain healthy. Two losses followed his Jackpot victory; a fourth in the grade I CashCall Futurity and a third in the Holy Bull Stakes. Neither performance was all that bad, and it can be argued that the Holy Bull was actually his best race. He has been training quite well for this race and should run his best race. Trained by Steve Standridge, the son of Trippi will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
The number three horse is El Grayling. A son of El Prado, he has had a fairly consistent career while competing against some very good horses. He has only won once, but finished fifth in the Sunday Silence Stakes while beaten just a half-length. He also finished second in a Churchill Downs allowance race behind Brethren and third in a Gulfstream allowance behind Shackleford and Casper’s Touch. Trained by Michael Maker, he would have to show some improvement if he is to contend here, but I wouldn’t count him out entirely. Rajiv Maragh has the mount.
This brings us to Casper’s Touch, the unlucky runner-up in a recent allowance race. A son of Touch Gold, the promising youngster finished fourth in his first start before shipping to England to run in Ascot’s Chesham Stakes. He finished third in a field of twelve, a fine performance indeed. He did not start again until November of 2010, when he won a one-mile main track allowance race at Churchill Downs in sharp fashion. This made him the even-money favorite in the above-mentioned allowance race, where he was bumped very hard in the stretch but still managed to re-rally for second. With a little more luck today, I expect him to run quite well. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, he will be ridden by Alex Solis.
Now we come to Bowman’s Causeway, one of the longer shots in this race. The son of Giant’s Causeway began his career in September 2010, running third in a maiden special weight behind Mucho Macho Man. This good effort made him the favorite in his next start, a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Sent straight to the lead, he set a quick pace before tiring late and finishing second behind Nacho Business. Finally, twelve days later and just fifteen days ago, he broke his maiden going nine furlongs by a length. Trained by Patrick Biancone, he will be making his third start in just four weeks, but I think he may surprise a few people and run well this afternoon. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Racing Aptitude drew gate six. The longshot in this race, he has never won a race on dirt and has never earned a Beyer speed figure higher than 78. His highest Beyer on dirt was a 29. He finished fifth and seventh in his last two races, but give him credit: in his last start, the Dania Beach Stakes, he was forced to steady twice and was only beaten 4 ¾ lengths. Trained by Howard Tesher, I doubt that he will be much of a factor today but perhaps he can hang on for a piece of the purse. I expect him to be not too far off the lead. Jose Lezcano has the mount.
This brings us to To Honor and Serve. As I mentioned above, the son of Bernardini won the Nashua and Remsen Stakes last year in sharp fashion, but he hasn’t raced since then. Trained by Bill Mott, the chestnut colt is one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He should run a good race today, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t quite show his best form this afternoon. After all, it’s been three months since his last race and although his workouts have been sharp, he may come up just a bit short in the stretch. However, his class alone should be enough to secure him second, if not first. John Velazquez will ride.
Finally, there is Shackleford. The colt has made three starts, winning four of them. Most recently, he won a nine furlong allowance race in which he defeated Casper’s Touch and El Grayling. The front-running colt will have to use his speed early if he does not want to get caught wide on the first turn. Trained by Dale Romans, I wouldn’t count him out but I can’t see him winning. He will be ridden by J. Castanon.
I have gone back and forth . . . and back and forth . . . and back and forth between my picks. I’ve debated for days whether or not To Honor and Serve will be sharp enough to win. Finally, I decided on these selections:
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Soldat
3 Gourmet Dinner
4 Bowman’s Causeway
5 Casper’s Touch
6 Shackleford
7 Racing Aptitude
8 El Grayling
I’ve finally decided to go with To Honor and Serve and hope that his class sees him through. There’s no doubt that it will be a tough race to win, but I think that he’s up to it.
As for Gourmet Dinner, I really like him but he strikes me as a colt who doesn’t want much further than a mile and a sixteenth. Nine furlongs is probably within his range, but I expect him to tire just a bit in the homestretch.
Of course, J.R. sees it differently.
J.R. had quite a bit of success last week beating favorites – he selected Mucho Macho Man to win the Risen Star and Archarcharch to win the Southwest Stakes. He’s going to try and do it again with Gourmet Dinner. He feels that Gourmet Dinner ran a magnificent race in the Holy Bull and that he will catch To Honor and Serve inside the sixteenth pole to win by a half-length. He feels that Soldat will not run as well on a fast track as he did on a sloppy track last time out and will disappoint while heavily bet.
His picks are thus:
1 Gourmet Dinner
2 To Honor and Serve
3 Soldat
4 Casper’s Touch
5 Bowman’s Causeway
6 Shackleford
7 El Grayling
8 Racing Aptitude
We’ll see what happens!
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
There is a fine set of supporting stakes races on the Fountain of Youth undercard, led by the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II). But before I begin discussing it, allow me to note that Crossbow has scratched. He shall instead await the Gotham Stakes next Saturday and run there.
Of the remaining entries, the morning line favorite is Travelin Man. The colt has made but one start thus far, breaking his maiden impressively going six furlongs over this track on January 6th. He won by 7 ¼ lengths and stopped the clock in 1:09.09. The performance was admirable, and he should run well today.
Other major contenders are Flashpoint, Madman Diaries, Black N Beauty, Manicero, and Royal Currier. Flashpoint broke his maiden sharply first time out, but has not started since. Madman Diaries set the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) before tiring to fourth. Black N Beauty finished fifth in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out, but won a one-mile allowance race impressively before that. Manicero has won four straight, but seven furlongs may be a bit of a stretch. Finally, Royal Hughes ran second to Fort Hughes last time out in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes.
It’s a nearly impossible race to handicap, but I must do so because it is one of this week’s contest races. Therefore, here are my selections. . .
1 Leave of Absence
2 Travelin Man
3 Royal Currier
4 Flashpoint
5 Manicero
6 Black N Beauty
7 Razmataz
8 Madman Diaries
9 Little Drama
It is a bit daring to pick Leave of Absence, but I decided to do so because he is the only colt in this race who has NOT shown early turn of foot. I expect a ridiculous speed duel for the early lead, enabling Leave of Absence to come flying late to win.
J.R., however, will select Razmataz. He feels that the colt will be overlooked in the betting, and will come from a few lengths off the lead to win in a photo finish. He likes the fact that the colt is trained by Todd Pletcher.
His picks are:
1 Razmataz
2 Royal Currier
3 Flashpoint
4 Leave of Absence
5 Little Drama
6 Travelin Man
7 Madman Diaries
8 Manicero
9 Black N Beauty
I feel confident that this race will enable me to catch up to J.R. in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest. However, he is equally confident that this race will enable him to build up an uncatchable lead. We’ll see.
The Borderland Derby at Sunland Park, in which Mine That Bird ran while prepping for his victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby, is the final race which J.R. and I shall handicap today.
The race has drawn a field of ten, with Special Kid the morning line favorite. He broke his maiden going a mile and a sixteenth at Santa Anita Park, winning a maiden special weight race by a nose with a desperate late run. Fusa Code, third in that race, is also running in the Borderland Derby even though he has never won a race.
Another logical contender is Expecting Cash. Most recently, he finished third behind Decisive Moment and Su Casa G Casa in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs. It was a fine performance and should set him up well here.
It’s My Party won a one-mile allowance race last time out and is stakes placed. Orion Xpress broke his maiden going six furlongs in 1:10.52. Either of them could run quite well.
Here are my selections:
1 It’s My Party
2 Special Kid
3 Expecting Cash
4 Orion Xpress
5 Mason’s Pegasus
6 Fusa Code
7 R Skydiver
8 What’s the Toccet
9 Carsoncitygambler
10 Behold de Buy
And here are J.R.’s:
1 Orion Xpress
2 Expecting Cash
3 Special Kid
4 R Skydiver
5 It’s My Party
6 Mason’s Pegasus
7 Fusa Code
8 Behold de Buy
9 What’s the Toccet
10 Carsoncitygambler
Neither of us have a very good feel for the race, but that is what we came up with. We’ll see what happens!
The one-mile Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), run at Gulfstream Park two races prior to the Fountain of Youth Stakes, drew a field of nine. However, Roxy Gap has scratched, leaving the race with eight runners.
The morning line favorite is Dancinginherdreams. The fine filly swept to two easy victories as a juvenile, including a 5 ¼ length triumph in the grade II Pocahontas Stakes. However, she lost her first race as a three-year-old, rallying strongly but failing to catch Pomeroy’s Pistol in the grade II Forward Gal Stakes. She should be sharper today.
Speaking of Pomeroy’s Pistol, she will try to beat Dancinginherdreams yet again today. She has twice proven herself to be stakes caliber; not only did she win the Forward Gal she also ran second in Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) two starts back. She will likely set the pace this afternoon.
R Heat Lightning is the other obvious contender. She won the grade I Spinaway Stakes at two and ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), but in her 2011 debut ran fourth in the Forward Gal. Like Dancinginherdreams, she should run better today.
Then there is the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise. The 5-2 favorite is Indian Winter, who finished third in the grade I Del Mar Futurity as a juvenile and won the San Pedro Stakes last time out. He will have to prove himself in a route race today, but I believe that he will do so impressively.
The third race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday merits attention as well. The race has drawn a pair of very promising colts in Arch Traveler and Nacho Business. Both are entering the race off of sharp maiden victories and I would not be surprised to see them run 1-2. Other notable colts include Washington’s Rules, Private Prize, and Cool Blue Red Hot. This race may turn out a Florida Derby contender or two.
The sixth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday is also quite notable. The 8-5 morning line favorite, San Pablo, enters off of a strong second to Washington’s Rules in a maiden special weight. He may be something special, so I advise you to keep an eye on him!
The fifth race at Fair Grounds on Saturday is also noteworthy. The favorites at 6-5 are Sour and Left, who will run coupled. Sour and Lumberyard Jack are the colts that I will be watching. Both are coming off of victories in one-mile and seventy yards maiden special weight races, and both could mark themselves as potential Louisiana Derby contenders with a victory.
The Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park has drawn a fine field of seven; however, there have been two scratches. The morning line favorite is J J’s Lucky Train, a very consistent colt who has finished second in both the Count Fleet Stakes and Whirlaway Stakes this year. He should finish in the exacta today without a doubt.
His main competition will likely come from Bandbox. The colt won his first three races, which included a pair of stakes races, before finishing fourth in the Remsen Stakes after a rough trip. This will be his first start since then, but he should be up to running a winning race.
The ultra-consistent Wicked Thunder is the third choice. He has made nine starts, won four of them, and never finished worse than second. In his most recent race, the Dancing Count Stakes at Laurel Park, he won by a nose in a thrilling stretch duel. Seeing that he has experience over this track, he may be good enough to upset the two favorites.
The second race at Oaklawn Park on Sunday should prove interesting as well. A mile and a sixteenth allowance race for three-year-olds and up, the morning line favorite is Commander. The colt ran third behind Alternation and Elite Alex two starts back, but finished a badly beaten sixth in a January 29th allowance race. On the other hand, his sixth place finish came only two weeks after his tough third, so perhaps the extra rest between his January 29th start and tomorrow’s race will help him run better.
Supreme Ruler should also run well. 7-2 on the morning line, he broke his maiden with a tremendous late run first time out on January 15th. This will be his first start since then. Expect to see him flying late.
Finally, we come to the eighth race at Santa Anita Park on Saturday. A one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds, the favorite is Mr. Commons, who broke his maiden second time out at Santa Anita. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on the downhill turf course, he drew off to a 5 ½ length victory in a brilliant 1:12.14. If he can transfer that form to the main track, he will be tough to beat.
Also, keep an eye on Chiloquin, who defeated next-time-out winner Drink at Buster’s in a January 16th allowance race at Santa Anita,
And finally, after three thousand-plus words, that is all I have to say. Now go out and enjoy a fabulous set of races!
-Keelerman
FLASHPOINT WINS THE HUTCHESON!
Flashpoint dueled for the early lead and drew off to a magnificent victory in the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon at Gulfstream Park.
Ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, Flashpoint sat just off of the early pace set by 3-5 favorite Travelin Man before blowing past that one at the top of the stretch. It was no race from then on, with Flashpoint drawing away to win by at least eight lengths. The final time was 1:22.03.
Travelin Man held second over Little Drama, with Razmataz finishing fourth.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, Flashpoint sat just off of the early pace set by 3-5 favorite Travelin Man before blowing past that one at the top of the stretch. It was no race from then on, with Flashpoint drawing away to win by at least eight lengths. The final time was 1:22.03.
Travelin Man held second over Little Drama, with Razmataz finishing fourth.
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 25th, 2011
All kinds of fabulous Triple Crown prep races were run last weekend; many horses rebounded off of poor performances and proved themselves worthy of attempting to get to the Kentucky Derby. Also, the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest continued with week two of the competition, and J.R. ended up with a fairly decisive lead! Read on to find out what happened!
FEATURE RACE RECAPS
As you know, we had three feature races last weekend: the Risen Star, San Vicente, and Southwest Stakes. I shall recap all of them thoroughly here, listing my picks as well as J.R.’s versus the actual results of the race. Enjoy!
Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
In what was probably the best race of the week, the Risen Star Stakes ended with a bit of a surprise. The five favorites did indeed occupy the top five spots, but not in the order that they were expected to.
As the gates opened, it was Rogue Romance who got away quickest. However, as usual, the colt dropped toward the back of the pack immediately, and was running seventh after the first quarter of a mile.
Therefore, it was Decisive Moment who ended up on the lead. The speedy front runner had proven effective in the past at winning races in wire-to-wire fashion and would attempt to do so here.
Tracking him in second was Mucho Macho Man, who broke quickly and secured a good position in the two-path early. He was followed on the outside by Santiva in third and 121-1 shot Sorgho on the rail in fourth. Next was Pants On Fire, followed by Action Ready, Rogue Romance, Machen, Justin Philip, and Sorgho. Machen broke rather poorly at the start and ended up well off the pace in the early going. About eight lengths separated first from last.
The fractions were moderate, with Decisive Moment rattling off an opening quarter in :24.67 and a half-mile in :49.24. At this point Liondrive split horses and made a run at the leader, coming on equal terms with Decisive Moment following three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.65. But Mucho Macho Man and Santiva were breathing down their necks; and Machen was looming a serious threat on the far outside. In the meantime, Rogue Romance was behind a wall of horses looking for an opening.
Into the homestretch they came and Santiva took a narrow lead. But Mucho Macho Man was battling gamely on the inside and slowly began to draw away. Rogue Romance was extracting himself from traffic on outside, and Machen was beginning to flatten out.
In the final strides, Mucho Macho Man pulled away from Santiva with impressive strides, hitting the wire 1 ¾ lengths in front while stopping the clock in 1:43.98. Santiva finishing a game second, dispelling any worries that he might be too slow to compete against this group. Rogue Romance rallied for third, but didn’t hit his best stride until it was too late. I’m looking forward to his next start. Machen finished fourth, running well but not good enough.
Here are the complete results:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Santiva
3 Rogue Romance
4 Machen
5 Decisive Moment
6 Pants On Fire
7 Action Ready
8 Justin Philip
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
Here were my picks:
1 Machen
2 Decisive Moment
3 Rogue Romance
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Santiva
6 Justin Philip
7 Action Ready
8 Pants On Fire
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
Here were J.R.’s picks:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Justin Philip
3 Rogue Romance
4 Decisive Moment
5 Pants On Fire
6 Santiva
7 Machen
8 Action Ready
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
We actually both did pretty well. J.R. picked the winner, which I didn’t, but my top finishers finished in the top five. However, my pick ran fourth, which helped J.R. to earn the large lead which he currently has in the standings of our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest.
San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)
As expected, the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) ended with The Factor winning in another stunning performance. However, it was considerably closer this time around than it was when he broke his maiden in December.
Sent off as the odds-on favorite in the field of six, The Factor was hustled away to take the early lead. He was followed closely by the speedy City Cool, with Premier Pegasus sitting right behind them in third. Sinai had settled into fourth, with Surrey Star and Sway Away trailing the field.
The opening quarter was run in a moderate :22 1/5. However, Martin Garcia on The Factor had no intentions of setting a slow pace. He asked The Factor for a little bit more and his mount responded with a second quarter in a brilliant :21 2/5, enabling his to pass the three-eighths pole in :43 2/5 with a 1 ½ length advantage. City Cool was beginning to tire, but Premier Pegasus was beginning his challenge, and from the back of the pack Sway Away was beginning to roll.
The Factor entered the homestretch with the lead, and Premier Pegasus wasn’t closing in. It looked like The Factor would win with ease, but Sway Away was really beginning to roll on the outside. Despite having not raced in months, the son of Afleet Alex was closing like a rocket. Despite being five lengths behind at the eighth pole, he managed to get within three-quarters of a length of The Factor. But that was when they crossed the wire. Therefore, The Factor entered the history books as the winner of the 2011 San Vicente Stakes.
The complete results were:
1 The Factor
2 Sway Away
3 Premier Pegasus
4 Surrey Star
5 Sinai
6 City Cool
Here were my picks:
1 The Factor
2 Sway Away
3 Premier Pegasus
4 Sinai
5 Surrey Star
6 City Cool
And here were J.R.’s picks:
1 Sinai
2 The Factor
3 Sway Away
4 Premier Pegasus
5 Surrey Star
6 City Cool
The results of this race enabled me to draw to within a single point of J.R.’s early lead in our handicapping contest, but the results of the Southwest Stakes caused this near-tie to evaporate.
Southwest Stakes (gr. III)
One of the most fascinating races of the weekend, the Southwest Stakes drew a field of eleven sophomores, including grade I winner J P’s Gusto and the promising Elite Alex. They were the two favorites, yet both were beaten.
First out of the gate was Brickyard Fast, who was immediately sent after the lead. However, it was Derivative who would end up with the lead. Those two hooked up in a speed duel early on and ran the first quarter mile in :22 3/5. They were 2 ½ lengths clear of Grant Jack in third, with J P’s Gusto settling into fourth, five lengths from the leaders. He was followed by Archarcharch and Ghost Is Clear, who were racing together in fifth. They were followed by Yankee Passion and Caleb’s Posse; Bonaroo was in ninth. Finally, Elite Alex and Picko’s Pride trailed the field. Picko’s Pride was forced to steady off the heels of Elite Alex in the early going and was twenty lengths off the lead after the first quarter of a mile.
Derivative and Brickyard Fast continued to duel through a quick half-mile in :46 4/5. But Grant Jack and Archarcharch were beginning to inch closer, and J P’s Gusto still wasn’t far behind.
Then everything happened at once.
Grant Jack made his move for the lead. Archarcharch started really coming on the outside. Caleb’s Posse began a sudden move toward the lead. Elite Alex was attempting to circle the entire field. J P’s Gusto was still right there. With just a quarter of a mile to run, the top eight horses were separated by only 2 ½ lengths!
Then the race was blown wide open. During the next eighth of a mile Archarcharch opened up a 2 ½ length lead. J P’s Gusto and Elite Alex were trying to wear him down, but it was no use. Archarcharch stayed on gamely all the way to the wire, finishing the race three-quarters of a length in front of J P’s Gusto, who made a very late run at the winner but was not in time.
Elite Alex finished third, despite taking the final turn six wide. Amazingly, Picko’s Pride rallied for fourth at odds of 79.60-1—despite a bit of a rough trip. With a little more luck, I believe that he could have won.
Here are the complete results:
1 Archarcharch
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Elite Alex
4 Picko’s Pride
5 Yankee Passion
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Grant Jack
8 Derivative
9 Brickyard Fast
10 Ghost Is Clear
11 Bonaroo
Here were my picks:
1 Yankee Passion
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Elite Alex
4 Archarcharch
5 Picko’s Pride
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Ghost is Clear
8 Grant Jack
9 Derivative
10 Brickyard Fast
11 Bonaroo
And here were J.R.’s picks:
1 Archarcharch
2 Elite Alex
3 Derivative
4 Ghost is Clear
5 J P’s Gusto
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Yankee Passion
8 Picko’s Pride
9 Bonaroo
10 Grant Jack
11 Brickyard Fast
J.R. picked the winner, but that was about it. At least MY top five occupied the top five positions at the finish. . .
But congratulations to J.R., who out-handicapped me this weekend to take a 34-23 lead into week three of the contest. Expect to see that lead reversed tomorrow, for I fully intend to redeem myself with some victorious selections in the Fountain of Youth, Hutcheson, and Borderland Derby tomorrow! :)
I shall post our picks tomorrow.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
February 17th
• Congo turned in yet another remarkable performance, surging through another traffic jam to win a one-mile starter allowance race at Aqueduct by 1 ¾ lengths. In his last start, the chestnut colt had to back out of a pocket and charge relentlessly in the stretch to win an allowance optional claiming race. This time, there was no backing out. Therefore, the colt split horses like they were bowling pins and drove through to win impressively under little urging at all. Keep an eye on this one! He’s special!
February 18th
• The one-mile and seventy yards Undaunted Mettle Stakes at Aqueduct ended almost exactly as everyone expected it to. Slight favorite Eminent Tale opened up a large lead in the stretch and held off second-choice Sky Music to win the $60,000 event. The winner was ridden by Ramon Dominguez and is trained by Richard Dutrow. However, Sky Music looked very promising as well. He rallied from last (and four lengths back at the eighth pole) to be beaten just a length. The final time was 1:43.01.
February 19th
• Kathmanblu is the current favorite for the Kentucky Oaks. There is little doubt about that after the bay filly added a fourth stakes victory to her resume in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds. Never far back, she rallied gamely in the stretch to win the 1 1/16 miles event by 1 ¼ lengths in 1:45.13. Inglorious rallied well for second, while pacesetter Gran Lioness finished third.
• Going Away Baby pulled off a 23-1 shocker in the Two Altazano Stakes at Sam Houston Race Park, battling for the lead early before drawing off to a three length victory in the one-mile event, stopping the clock in 1:41.68. Odds-on favorite Patty’s Pride finished last, beaten 43 lengths.
• The Jim’s Orbit Stakes at Sam Houston came down to three horses; separated by just a length at the wire. 3.90-1 shot Hidden Recipe got home first, with 9-1 Maverick Prince in second and odds-on favorite Tamtastic finishing third. The final time was 1:40.66.
February 20th
• The second race at Oaklawn Park resulted in a bit of an upset, as the second longest shot in the field of six came under the wire first. That horse was Keep On Giving, who at odds of 6.30-1 battled for the lead before drawing off to win by 4 ¼ lengths. The final time in the six furlong event was 1:10.78. Mastman finished second, while favored Casperzapper finished fifth.
• Kathmanblu wasn’t the only serious Kentucky Oaks contender to race last weekend. At Aqueduct in the Busher Stakes, It’s Tricky made it clear that she is to be reckoned with by drawing off in the stretch to win the race by eight easy lengths. The final time for the one-mile and seventy yards event was 1:43.21. By Mineshaft, the bay filly looks very promising indeed!
February 21st
• Although Archarcharch was very impressive in the Southwest Stakes, Alternation may have turned in the best performance by a three-year-old at Oaklawn that day. Sent off as the favorite in the seventh race—a mile and a sixteenth allowance race against older horses—he rallied from well off the pace to score by 3 ¼ lengths. Fellow sophomores Dreaminofthewin and Bluegrass Bull finished second and third, while the older horses trailed the field. The final time was 1:45.24.
• The grade III La Habra Stakes marked the return of Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I) winner Riboletta, who was injured last year before she could compete in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was not expected to win this race, for it was only 6-1/2 furlongs and on the downhill turf course, (she is a main track distance runner) but it would prove if she had come back well. She ended up running a respectable fifth, beaten only five lengths by winner Cambina. Quiet Oasis finished second. The final time was 1:13.75.
And so that concludes this rather lengthy blog post! Tomorrow, a grand set of stakes races for three-year-olds are on the agenda and we will see if To Honor and Serve can run as well as he did last year. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
FEATURE RACE RECAPS
As you know, we had three feature races last weekend: the Risen Star, San Vicente, and Southwest Stakes. I shall recap all of them thoroughly here, listing my picks as well as J.R.’s versus the actual results of the race. Enjoy!
Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
In what was probably the best race of the week, the Risen Star Stakes ended with a bit of a surprise. The five favorites did indeed occupy the top five spots, but not in the order that they were expected to.
As the gates opened, it was Rogue Romance who got away quickest. However, as usual, the colt dropped toward the back of the pack immediately, and was running seventh after the first quarter of a mile.
Therefore, it was Decisive Moment who ended up on the lead. The speedy front runner had proven effective in the past at winning races in wire-to-wire fashion and would attempt to do so here.
Tracking him in second was Mucho Macho Man, who broke quickly and secured a good position in the two-path early. He was followed on the outside by Santiva in third and 121-1 shot Sorgho on the rail in fourth. Next was Pants On Fire, followed by Action Ready, Rogue Romance, Machen, Justin Philip, and Sorgho. Machen broke rather poorly at the start and ended up well off the pace in the early going. About eight lengths separated first from last.
The fractions were moderate, with Decisive Moment rattling off an opening quarter in :24.67 and a half-mile in :49.24. At this point Liondrive split horses and made a run at the leader, coming on equal terms with Decisive Moment following three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.65. But Mucho Macho Man and Santiva were breathing down their necks; and Machen was looming a serious threat on the far outside. In the meantime, Rogue Romance was behind a wall of horses looking for an opening.
Into the homestretch they came and Santiva took a narrow lead. But Mucho Macho Man was battling gamely on the inside and slowly began to draw away. Rogue Romance was extracting himself from traffic on outside, and Machen was beginning to flatten out.
In the final strides, Mucho Macho Man pulled away from Santiva with impressive strides, hitting the wire 1 ¾ lengths in front while stopping the clock in 1:43.98. Santiva finishing a game second, dispelling any worries that he might be too slow to compete against this group. Rogue Romance rallied for third, but didn’t hit his best stride until it was too late. I’m looking forward to his next start. Machen finished fourth, running well but not good enough.
Here are the complete results:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Santiva
3 Rogue Romance
4 Machen
5 Decisive Moment
6 Pants On Fire
7 Action Ready
8 Justin Philip
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
Here were my picks:
1 Machen
2 Decisive Moment
3 Rogue Romance
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Santiva
6 Justin Philip
7 Action Ready
8 Pants On Fire
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
Here were J.R.’s picks:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Justin Philip
3 Rogue Romance
4 Decisive Moment
5 Pants On Fire
6 Santiva
7 Machen
8 Action Ready
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
We actually both did pretty well. J.R. picked the winner, which I didn’t, but my top finishers finished in the top five. However, my pick ran fourth, which helped J.R. to earn the large lead which he currently has in the standings of our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest.
San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)
As expected, the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) ended with The Factor winning in another stunning performance. However, it was considerably closer this time around than it was when he broke his maiden in December.
Sent off as the odds-on favorite in the field of six, The Factor was hustled away to take the early lead. He was followed closely by the speedy City Cool, with Premier Pegasus sitting right behind them in third. Sinai had settled into fourth, with Surrey Star and Sway Away trailing the field.
The opening quarter was run in a moderate :22 1/5. However, Martin Garcia on The Factor had no intentions of setting a slow pace. He asked The Factor for a little bit more and his mount responded with a second quarter in a brilliant :21 2/5, enabling his to pass the three-eighths pole in :43 2/5 with a 1 ½ length advantage. City Cool was beginning to tire, but Premier Pegasus was beginning his challenge, and from the back of the pack Sway Away was beginning to roll.
The Factor entered the homestretch with the lead, and Premier Pegasus wasn’t closing in. It looked like The Factor would win with ease, but Sway Away was really beginning to roll on the outside. Despite having not raced in months, the son of Afleet Alex was closing like a rocket. Despite being five lengths behind at the eighth pole, he managed to get within three-quarters of a length of The Factor. But that was when they crossed the wire. Therefore, The Factor entered the history books as the winner of the 2011 San Vicente Stakes.
The complete results were:
1 The Factor
2 Sway Away
3 Premier Pegasus
4 Surrey Star
5 Sinai
6 City Cool
Here were my picks:
1 The Factor
2 Sway Away
3 Premier Pegasus
4 Sinai
5 Surrey Star
6 City Cool
And here were J.R.’s picks:
1 Sinai
2 The Factor
3 Sway Away
4 Premier Pegasus
5 Surrey Star
6 City Cool
The results of this race enabled me to draw to within a single point of J.R.’s early lead in our handicapping contest, but the results of the Southwest Stakes caused this near-tie to evaporate.
Southwest Stakes (gr. III)
One of the most fascinating races of the weekend, the Southwest Stakes drew a field of eleven sophomores, including grade I winner J P’s Gusto and the promising Elite Alex. They were the two favorites, yet both were beaten.
First out of the gate was Brickyard Fast, who was immediately sent after the lead. However, it was Derivative who would end up with the lead. Those two hooked up in a speed duel early on and ran the first quarter mile in :22 3/5. They were 2 ½ lengths clear of Grant Jack in third, with J P’s Gusto settling into fourth, five lengths from the leaders. He was followed by Archarcharch and Ghost Is Clear, who were racing together in fifth. They were followed by Yankee Passion and Caleb’s Posse; Bonaroo was in ninth. Finally, Elite Alex and Picko’s Pride trailed the field. Picko’s Pride was forced to steady off the heels of Elite Alex in the early going and was twenty lengths off the lead after the first quarter of a mile.
Derivative and Brickyard Fast continued to duel through a quick half-mile in :46 4/5. But Grant Jack and Archarcharch were beginning to inch closer, and J P’s Gusto still wasn’t far behind.
Then everything happened at once.
Grant Jack made his move for the lead. Archarcharch started really coming on the outside. Caleb’s Posse began a sudden move toward the lead. Elite Alex was attempting to circle the entire field. J P’s Gusto was still right there. With just a quarter of a mile to run, the top eight horses were separated by only 2 ½ lengths!
Then the race was blown wide open. During the next eighth of a mile Archarcharch opened up a 2 ½ length lead. J P’s Gusto and Elite Alex were trying to wear him down, but it was no use. Archarcharch stayed on gamely all the way to the wire, finishing the race three-quarters of a length in front of J P’s Gusto, who made a very late run at the winner but was not in time.
Elite Alex finished third, despite taking the final turn six wide. Amazingly, Picko’s Pride rallied for fourth at odds of 79.60-1—despite a bit of a rough trip. With a little more luck, I believe that he could have won.
Here are the complete results:
1 Archarcharch
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Elite Alex
4 Picko’s Pride
5 Yankee Passion
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Grant Jack
8 Derivative
9 Brickyard Fast
10 Ghost Is Clear
11 Bonaroo
Here were my picks:
1 Yankee Passion
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Elite Alex
4 Archarcharch
5 Picko’s Pride
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Ghost is Clear
8 Grant Jack
9 Derivative
10 Brickyard Fast
11 Bonaroo
And here were J.R.’s picks:
1 Archarcharch
2 Elite Alex
3 Derivative
4 Ghost is Clear
5 J P’s Gusto
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Yankee Passion
8 Picko’s Pride
9 Bonaroo
10 Grant Jack
11 Brickyard Fast
J.R. picked the winner, but that was about it. At least MY top five occupied the top five positions at the finish. . .
But congratulations to J.R., who out-handicapped me this weekend to take a 34-23 lead into week three of the contest. Expect to see that lead reversed tomorrow, for I fully intend to redeem myself with some victorious selections in the Fountain of Youth, Hutcheson, and Borderland Derby tomorrow! :)
I shall post our picks tomorrow.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
February 17th
• Congo turned in yet another remarkable performance, surging through another traffic jam to win a one-mile starter allowance race at Aqueduct by 1 ¾ lengths. In his last start, the chestnut colt had to back out of a pocket and charge relentlessly in the stretch to win an allowance optional claiming race. This time, there was no backing out. Therefore, the colt split horses like they were bowling pins and drove through to win impressively under little urging at all. Keep an eye on this one! He’s special!
February 18th
• The one-mile and seventy yards Undaunted Mettle Stakes at Aqueduct ended almost exactly as everyone expected it to. Slight favorite Eminent Tale opened up a large lead in the stretch and held off second-choice Sky Music to win the $60,000 event. The winner was ridden by Ramon Dominguez and is trained by Richard Dutrow. However, Sky Music looked very promising as well. He rallied from last (and four lengths back at the eighth pole) to be beaten just a length. The final time was 1:43.01.
February 19th
• Kathmanblu is the current favorite for the Kentucky Oaks. There is little doubt about that after the bay filly added a fourth stakes victory to her resume in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds. Never far back, she rallied gamely in the stretch to win the 1 1/16 miles event by 1 ¼ lengths in 1:45.13. Inglorious rallied well for second, while pacesetter Gran Lioness finished third.
• Going Away Baby pulled off a 23-1 shocker in the Two Altazano Stakes at Sam Houston Race Park, battling for the lead early before drawing off to a three length victory in the one-mile event, stopping the clock in 1:41.68. Odds-on favorite Patty’s Pride finished last, beaten 43 lengths.
• The Jim’s Orbit Stakes at Sam Houston came down to three horses; separated by just a length at the wire. 3.90-1 shot Hidden Recipe got home first, with 9-1 Maverick Prince in second and odds-on favorite Tamtastic finishing third. The final time was 1:40.66.
February 20th
• The second race at Oaklawn Park resulted in a bit of an upset, as the second longest shot in the field of six came under the wire first. That horse was Keep On Giving, who at odds of 6.30-1 battled for the lead before drawing off to win by 4 ¼ lengths. The final time in the six furlong event was 1:10.78. Mastman finished second, while favored Casperzapper finished fifth.
• Kathmanblu wasn’t the only serious Kentucky Oaks contender to race last weekend. At Aqueduct in the Busher Stakes, It’s Tricky made it clear that she is to be reckoned with by drawing off in the stretch to win the race by eight easy lengths. The final time for the one-mile and seventy yards event was 1:43.21. By Mineshaft, the bay filly looks very promising indeed!
February 21st
• Although Archarcharch was very impressive in the Southwest Stakes, Alternation may have turned in the best performance by a three-year-old at Oaklawn that day. Sent off as the favorite in the seventh race—a mile and a sixteenth allowance race against older horses—he rallied from well off the pace to score by 3 ¼ lengths. Fellow sophomores Dreaminofthewin and Bluegrass Bull finished second and third, while the older horses trailed the field. The final time was 1:45.24.
• The grade III La Habra Stakes marked the return of Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I) winner Riboletta, who was injured last year before she could compete in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was not expected to win this race, for it was only 6-1/2 furlongs and on the downhill turf course, (she is a main track distance runner) but it would prove if she had come back well. She ended up running a respectable fifth, beaten only five lengths by winner Cambina. Quiet Oasis finished second. The final time was 1:13.75.
And so that concludes this rather lengthy blog post! Tomorrow, a grand set of stakes races for three-year-olds are on the agenda and we will see if To Honor and Serve can run as well as he did last year. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- February 23rd, 2011
(Please note the debut of my "Just Out of the Top" group below the Top Twenty. I've decided to further subdivide my "Other Notable Horses" sections, feeling that there are enough horses to warrant it. Enjoy!)
1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
He wasn't entered in the Fountain of Youth, with Nick Zito opting to find a similar race on a later date. I can't wait to see how he runs in what will be only his third start.
2. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
He drew gate seven in the Fountain of Youth, where he will likely be the huge favorite. It's a difficult race in which to debut as a three-year-old, but if he's anything like he was last year, he should win.
3. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's up to five furlongs in his workouts, breezing that distance in 1:01 2/5 on February 20th. Although the Tampa Bay Derby had been announced as his next start, the one-mile Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park has become his new goal.
4. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Without Uncle Mo running in the Tampa Bay Derby, I would not be surprised to see Brethren turn up there. Half-brother to Super Saver may not be bred to go as far as his Derby winning brother, but his obvious talent earns him respect.
5. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Ended up not running in the San Vicente after all. I assume this means that the San Felipe Stakes in March is his new goal.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Fine victory in the Risen Star proved that this colt is better than he showed in the Holy Bull. I liked the way he looked in the stretch.
7. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Strong second in the Risen Star was a very good comeback performance. He earned his best Beyer Speed Figure to date in that race, and should run even better in his next start.
8. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He drew the rail in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Impressive allowance winner who placed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf will likely have to prove himself on a fast dirt track. If he wins, he will move way up on my list.
9. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
He ran a very good race in the Southwest despite racing very wide all the way around the track. I like the way that he kept running all the way to the finish -- he reminds me of Dublin last year.
10. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
A rough trip in the Risen Star compromised his chances, but he still rallied strongly enough to finish third. His next start should tell us more.
11. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Rebounded strongly off of his dismal Smarty Jones effort with a strong upset victory in the Southwest. Like Elite Alex, he was forced to race very wide. I'm looking forward to his next start.
12. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Breezed five furlongs in 1:00.65 on February 20th. The Gotham Stakes in March is still his current goal. Until then, we won't know much more about him.
13. Casper's Touch - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
He will start from gate number four in the Fountain of Youth. Was very rank in his last start, something he will have to overcome this time around.
14. Sway Away - Trained by Jeff Bonde
Closed like a rocket in the San Vicente Stakes, making up slightly more than four lengths on the winner in the final furlong. Considering it was his first start off of a lengthy layoff, his future looks very bright.
15. Alternation - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel
An allowance victory on February 21st against older horses proves just how good this colt is. He overcame a poor break to come from nine lengths back and win by 3 1/4. Looks like a good one.
16. Anthony’s Cross – Trained by Eoin Harty
Probably won't race again until the Santa Anita Derby in April. Thus he has not recorded a workout since his Robert B. Lewis victory. Not sure what to think of this one.
17. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Already back on the worktab, as he breezed a half-mile in :50 4/5 on February 20th. The UAE Derby in Dubai in March has been mentioned as possibly his next start. A fascinating idea indeed.
18. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
Won the Whirlaway Stakes on a sloppy track with an impressive late-running performance. He looks like a colt who could improve dramatically over the next few months.
19. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
Breezed for the first time since the Las Virgenes on February 21st, going five furlongs in :58 4/5 at Hollywood Park. If it's any indication of how she will run in her next start, she should turn in a monster performance in the Santa Anita Oaks.
20. Congo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
I somehow overlooked that he was running on February 17th in a starter allowance race. Despite being stuck behind horses, he gamely split them and drew off to win by 1 3/4 lengths. He looks like a good one.
20. Machen - Trained by Neil Howard
Couldn't decide whether to include him or Congo in the twentieth spot and so decided to include them both. Really didn't run all that badly in the Risen Star Stakes and should improve next time out.
Note: Tapizar and Clubhouse Ride are both off the Triple Crown Trail due to unfortunate injuries. They have both been removed from this list.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Just Out of the Top
Astrology - San Vicente Stakes will likely be next.
Beamer - Actually didn't run too badly in the Sam F. Davis. Next start will tell us more.
Bowman's Causeway - Drew gate five in the Fountain of Youth.
J P's Gusto - Was charging hard at the finish of the Southwest Stakes.
Kathmanblu - Solid win in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes was impressive.
Premier Pegasus - Strong third in the San Vicente should set him up well for his two-turn debut.
Runflatout - San Vicente Stakes will likely be next.
Shackleford - Will break from the outside in the Fountain of Youth.
Sweet Ducky - Will train up to the Florida Derby.
Wilkinson - Not sure where the LeComte winner will turn up next.
Top Notables:
Adirondack Summer - Three furlong breeze in :39 flat this morning relieves me. I was concerned after his long break following the Dania Beach that a serious setback might have occurred.
Awesome Patriot - Expect him to show up in the entries soon.
Caleb's Posse - Didn't run all that well in the Southwest Stakes but significant traffic issues hindered his chances.
Cal Nation - Has a lot of catching up to do but raw talent warrants his inclusion here.
Chasing Moonlight - A pair of slow half-mile breezes suggest that his next start won't be for a while.
Comma to the Top - Hasn't breezed since the El Camino Real Derby.
Cool Blue Red Hot - Entered in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Crossbow – Drew the rail in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Decisive Moment - Came out of the Risen Star with a minor injury. However, it shouldn't stop him from continuing onward to the Kentucky Derby.
Flashpoint - Drew gate five in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Gourmet Dinner - Will start from gate two in the Fountain of Youth.
Indian Winter - Scratched from the San Vicente and will run in Saturday's Turf Paradise Derby instead.
J J's Lucky Train - Entered in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park on Saturday.
J W Blue - The Rebel Stakes may be his next start.
Nacho Business - Entered in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Positive Response - The San Felipe Stakes in March could potentially be his next race.
Queen'splatekitten - The Blue Grass Stakes has been mentioned as a possible goal.
The Factor - Brilliant win in the San Vicente Stakes sets him up for a try at the Sunland Derby in late March.
Travelin Man - Drew gate three in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Secondary Notables:
Bandbox - Entered in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel.
Bert B Don - Dropping this colt out of the "Top Notable" section because he hasn't breezed since January 29th.
Black N Beauty - Will break from gate eight in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Buffum - Finished fifth in UAE 2,000 Guineas.
Commander - Not sure what to think of him.
Dance City - Hasn't breezed since February 6th.
Determinato - Hasn't breezed since February 5th.
Eminent Tale - Winner of the Undaunted Mettle Stakes could prove an interesting contender.
Manicero - Drew gate nine in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Monzon - Very disappointing in the Sam F. Davis.
R Heat Lightning - Will start from gate five in the Davona Dale Stakes.
Sky Music - Runner-up in the Undaunted Mettle Stakes may prove to have been the best horse in the race.
Striding Ahead - Breezed three furlongs in :37 flat on February 15th.
Uncle Sam - Breezed a half-mile in :48 3/5 this morning.
Wine Police - Hasn't breezed since February 7th.
-Keelerman
1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
He wasn't entered in the Fountain of Youth, with Nick Zito opting to find a similar race on a later date. I can't wait to see how he runs in what will be only his third start.
2. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
He drew gate seven in the Fountain of Youth, where he will likely be the huge favorite. It's a difficult race in which to debut as a three-year-old, but if he's anything like he was last year, he should win.
3. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's up to five furlongs in his workouts, breezing that distance in 1:01 2/5 on February 20th. Although the Tampa Bay Derby had been announced as his next start, the one-mile Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park has become his new goal.
4. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Without Uncle Mo running in the Tampa Bay Derby, I would not be surprised to see Brethren turn up there. Half-brother to Super Saver may not be bred to go as far as his Derby winning brother, but his obvious talent earns him respect.
5. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Ended up not running in the San Vicente after all. I assume this means that the San Felipe Stakes in March is his new goal.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Fine victory in the Risen Star proved that this colt is better than he showed in the Holy Bull. I liked the way he looked in the stretch.
7. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Strong second in the Risen Star was a very good comeback performance. He earned his best Beyer Speed Figure to date in that race, and should run even better in his next start.
8. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He drew the rail in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Impressive allowance winner who placed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf will likely have to prove himself on a fast dirt track. If he wins, he will move way up on my list.
9. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
He ran a very good race in the Southwest despite racing very wide all the way around the track. I like the way that he kept running all the way to the finish -- he reminds me of Dublin last year.
10. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
A rough trip in the Risen Star compromised his chances, but he still rallied strongly enough to finish third. His next start should tell us more.
11. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Rebounded strongly off of his dismal Smarty Jones effort with a strong upset victory in the Southwest. Like Elite Alex, he was forced to race very wide. I'm looking forward to his next start.
12. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Breezed five furlongs in 1:00.65 on February 20th. The Gotham Stakes in March is still his current goal. Until then, we won't know much more about him.
13. Casper's Touch - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
He will start from gate number four in the Fountain of Youth. Was very rank in his last start, something he will have to overcome this time around.
14. Sway Away - Trained by Jeff Bonde
Closed like a rocket in the San Vicente Stakes, making up slightly more than four lengths on the winner in the final furlong. Considering it was his first start off of a lengthy layoff, his future looks very bright.
15. Alternation - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel
An allowance victory on February 21st against older horses proves just how good this colt is. He overcame a poor break to come from nine lengths back and win by 3 1/4. Looks like a good one.
16. Anthony’s Cross – Trained by Eoin Harty
Probably won't race again until the Santa Anita Derby in April. Thus he has not recorded a workout since his Robert B. Lewis victory. Not sure what to think of this one.
17. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Already back on the worktab, as he breezed a half-mile in :50 4/5 on February 20th. The UAE Derby in Dubai in March has been mentioned as possibly his next start. A fascinating idea indeed.
18. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
Won the Whirlaway Stakes on a sloppy track with an impressive late-running performance. He looks like a colt who could improve dramatically over the next few months.
19. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
Breezed for the first time since the Las Virgenes on February 21st, going five furlongs in :58 4/5 at Hollywood Park. If it's any indication of how she will run in her next start, she should turn in a monster performance in the Santa Anita Oaks.
20. Congo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
I somehow overlooked that he was running on February 17th in a starter allowance race. Despite being stuck behind horses, he gamely split them and drew off to win by 1 3/4 lengths. He looks like a good one.
20. Machen - Trained by Neil Howard
Couldn't decide whether to include him or Congo in the twentieth spot and so decided to include them both. Really didn't run all that badly in the Risen Star Stakes and should improve next time out.
Note: Tapizar and Clubhouse Ride are both off the Triple Crown Trail due to unfortunate injuries. They have both been removed from this list.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Just Out of the Top
Astrology - San Vicente Stakes will likely be next.
Beamer - Actually didn't run too badly in the Sam F. Davis. Next start will tell us more.
Bowman's Causeway - Drew gate five in the Fountain of Youth.
J P's Gusto - Was charging hard at the finish of the Southwest Stakes.
Kathmanblu - Solid win in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes was impressive.
Premier Pegasus - Strong third in the San Vicente should set him up well for his two-turn debut.
Runflatout - San Vicente Stakes will likely be next.
Shackleford - Will break from the outside in the Fountain of Youth.
Sweet Ducky - Will train up to the Florida Derby.
Wilkinson - Not sure where the LeComte winner will turn up next.
Top Notables:
Adirondack Summer - Three furlong breeze in :39 flat this morning relieves me. I was concerned after his long break following the Dania Beach that a serious setback might have occurred.
Awesome Patriot - Expect him to show up in the entries soon.
Caleb's Posse - Didn't run all that well in the Southwest Stakes but significant traffic issues hindered his chances.
Cal Nation - Has a lot of catching up to do but raw talent warrants his inclusion here.
Chasing Moonlight - A pair of slow half-mile breezes suggest that his next start won't be for a while.
Comma to the Top - Hasn't breezed since the El Camino Real Derby.
Cool Blue Red Hot - Entered in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Crossbow – Drew the rail in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Decisive Moment - Came out of the Risen Star with a minor injury. However, it shouldn't stop him from continuing onward to the Kentucky Derby.
Flashpoint - Drew gate five in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Gourmet Dinner - Will start from gate two in the Fountain of Youth.
Indian Winter - Scratched from the San Vicente and will run in Saturday's Turf Paradise Derby instead.
J J's Lucky Train - Entered in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park on Saturday.
J W Blue - The Rebel Stakes may be his next start.
Nacho Business - Entered in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Positive Response - The San Felipe Stakes in March could potentially be his next race.
Queen'splatekitten - The Blue Grass Stakes has been mentioned as a possible goal.
The Factor - Brilliant win in the San Vicente Stakes sets him up for a try at the Sunland Derby in late March.
Travelin Man - Drew gate three in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Secondary Notables:
Bandbox - Entered in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel.
Bert B Don - Dropping this colt out of the "Top Notable" section because he hasn't breezed since January 29th.
Black N Beauty - Will break from gate eight in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Buffum - Finished fifth in UAE 2,000 Guineas.
Commander - Not sure what to think of him.
Dance City - Hasn't breezed since February 6th.
Determinato - Hasn't breezed since February 5th.
Eminent Tale - Winner of the Undaunted Mettle Stakes could prove an interesting contender.
Manicero - Drew gate nine in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Monzon - Very disappointing in the Sam F. Davis.
R Heat Lightning - Will start from gate five in the Davona Dale Stakes.
Sky Music - Runner-up in the Undaunted Mettle Stakes may prove to have been the best horse in the race.
Striding Ahead - Breezed three furlongs in :37 flat on February 15th.
Uncle Sam - Breezed a half-mile in :48 3/5 this morning.
Wine Police - Hasn't breezed since February 7th.
-Keelerman
Monday, February 21, 2011
ARCHARCHARCH WINS THE SOUTHWEST STAKES!
Archarcharch made a bold run to take the lead in the stretch and held off all challengers to win the $250,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) by three-quarters of a length.
Ridden by J. Court, Archarcharch sat well off of the early pace set by Derivative and Brickyard Fast. Grant Jack was right behind them, followed by Ghost is Clear and J P's Gusto.
Following quick fractions of :22 3/5 and :46 4/5, Archarcharch began to advance on the outside. With a four-wide move he swept closer to the lead. Caleb's Posse was right behind him, and Elite Alex was making a strong move on the outside too. J P's Gusto was along the inside trying to find an opening.
Turning for home, Archarcharch burst clear to a two length lead. Elite Alex, who took the far turn six wide, was closing gamely. J P's Gusto has also found a seam and was charging fast too. But neither could catch Archarcharch, who held off J P's Gusto to win.
70-1 shot Picko's Pride finished fourth, followed by Yankee Passion, Caleb's Posse, Grant Jack, Derivative, Brickyard Fast, Ghost is Clear, and Bonaroo.
The winner returned $31.
-Keelerman
Ridden by J. Court, Archarcharch sat well off of the early pace set by Derivative and Brickyard Fast. Grant Jack was right behind them, followed by Ghost is Clear and J P's Gusto.
Following quick fractions of :22 3/5 and :46 4/5, Archarcharch began to advance on the outside. With a four-wide move he swept closer to the lead. Caleb's Posse was right behind him, and Elite Alex was making a strong move on the outside too. J P's Gusto was along the inside trying to find an opening.
Turning for home, Archarcharch burst clear to a two length lead. Elite Alex, who took the far turn six wide, was closing gamely. J P's Gusto has also found a seam and was charging fast too. But neither could catch Archarcharch, who held off J P's Gusto to win.
70-1 shot Picko's Pride finished fourth, followed by Yankee Passion, Caleb's Posse, Grant Jack, Derivative, Brickyard Fast, Ghost is Clear, and Bonaroo.
The winner returned $31.
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 21st, 2011
As promised, here are my thoughts and analysis of the grade III Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Enjoy!
FEATURE RACE ---- Southwest Stakes (gr. III)
Oaklawn Park/One Mile/$250,000 Purse
The 2011 edition of the Southwest Stakes has drawn a large field of eleven sophomore colts, all with their sights set on the Kentucky Derby in May. The second in a series of four major Triple Crown prep races at Oaklawn, I expect some future stakes winners to emerge from this quality field.
Here are the entries. . .
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Caleb’s Posse 9-2 122
2 Derivative 8-1 115
3 Ghost is Clear 8-1 115
4 Grant Jack 15-1 119
5 J P’s Gusto 9-5 117
6 Archarcharch 10-1 117
7 Bonaroo 30-1 115
8 Yankee Passion 8-1 115
9 Elite Alex 4-1 115
10 Brickyard Fast 30-1 115
11 Picko’s Pride 30-1 115
Drawing the rail is Caleb’s Posse, winner of the local prep for this race, the Smarty Jones Stakes last month. The son of Posse also won the Clever Trevor Stakes last fall, but turned in a dismal seventh-place performance as the favorite in the Springboard Mile Stakes at the end of 2010. Although he is certainly a fine colt, he has not been coming home very fast at all in his races and will be carrying more weight than any of his rivals. Under these conditions, I’m afraid that I can’t see him winning. A wet track would increase his chances. Trained by Hemel Von, he will be ridden by E. Razo.
The next horse is Derivative. The colt has made six starts, all of them in maiden races. He has been improving with every start though and finally broke through with a win in his last start, a one-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn just nine days ago. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, this front-running colt will likely help set the pace this afternoon, but I’m not sure that he is capable of holding off the numerous talented late runners in this race. T. Thompson will ride.
This brings us to Ghost is Clear. The son of Ghostzapper turned in a very strong performance at Fair Grounds on January 27th. In a six furlong maiden special weight, (his fourth start) the colt went straight to the lead, raced three wide around the turn, and drew off to win by 7 ¼ lengths in 1:10.47. He has to prove that he is capable of racing around two turns today, but I feel that he will not embarrass himself. Trained by Michael Maker, C. Lanerie has the mount.
Then there is Grant Jack, winner of the Springboard Mile Stakes in December of 2010. In that race, he defeated Brickyard Fast and Caleb’s Posse, both of whom are running in this race. However, he finished seventh in his most recent start, beaten 22 ½ lengths in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Perhaps he didn’t care for the off track that afternoon, or perhaps he set a pace that was too fast, but I don’t believe that he is quite talented enough to win this race. Trained by Bret Calhoun, he will be ridden by M. Berry.
J P’s Gusto, the morning line favorite, drew gate five. The immensely talented ridgling was the king of the California juveniles last summer, as he swept to victory in four stakes races which included the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II) and Del Mar Futurity (gr. I). However, the colt has not won since stretching out to two turns, failing in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I), the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I), and the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). On the other hand, he finished second in the Norfolk and CashCall Futurity and didn’t run all that badly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing five lengths out of third despite a very rough trip. He will have to prove that he can win on dirt, but he is the class of this race and should be right in contention. This will be his first start for his new trainer, Joe Petalino, and will be ridden by Eclipse award-winning rider Ramon Dominguez.
One of the more intriguing runners in this race is Archarcharch. Trained by William Fires, the son of Arch (who else!) finished second in a maiden special weight to begin his career. He then broke his maiden in the Sugar Bowl Stakes, turning in a very sharp performance indeed. He looked like a serious Triple Crown contender after that race, but a disappointing fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes has shattered that image. However, it is possible that he merely didn’t care for the wet track that day, and I am willing to give him a second chance here today. J. Court has the mount.
This brings us to Bonaroo. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the gelding has yet to win a race from four starts, but this has not stopped him from competing in stakes races. Entered in the Smarty Jones Stakes off of a second in a Keeneland maiden special weight in October, the colt was a distant fifth at 8.50-1. If you like his chances here, you will probably get more like 50-1 or 60-1. I believe that he is capable of hitting the board, but I can’t see him defeating this fine field of runners. The son of Dynaformer will be ridden by J. Johnson.
Yankee Passion is the next colt. Trained by Larry Jones, the son of Yankee Gentleman has won two of his three starts and finished second in the other. The speedy colt won an allowance optional claiming race last time out going six furlongs at Fair Grounds, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:10.88. However, this will be his first start beyond six furlongs and one must wonder if he can succeed at longer distances. A sharp five furlong workout February 16th signals his readiness. G. Saez will ride.
This brings us to Elite Alex, a very promising young colt with a bright future. The son of Afleet Alex broke his maiden in July of last year; then was given a lengthy break. His second start came in an allowance optional claiming race last month. In an incredible performance, the colt stumbled badly at the start, dropped well off the pace, circled the field with a tremendous run on the far turn, and missed the win in a stretch by a neck. He still has to prove that he is capable of winning a stakes race, but I believe that he has the talent. Trained by Tim Ritchey, he will be ridden by Calvin Borel.
Brickyard Fast drew gate ten. The son of Sharp Humor will be making his three-year-old debut. He proved to be a stakes-caliber colt in his final start as a juvenile, running second at 54-1 behind Grant Jack in the Springboard Mile Stakes. The front-running sophomore will probably help set the pace this afternoon; a difficult thing to do from the far outside. Time will tell if that effort is the standard or the exception for this colt, but he must at the very least be considered here. Trained by Joe Petalino, B. McNeil has the mount.
Finally, we come to Picko’s Pride. The son of Cactus Ridge broke his maiden first time out, but finished second, fourth, and second in his three starts since then, all in optional claiming company. Although a very nice colt, he just hasn’t shown the talent to win a race of this caliber. On the other hand, he closed well against Yankee Passion last time out and may improve in his second start off of a lengthy layoff. Trained by McLean Robertson, he will be ridden by I. Ocampo.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Yankee Passion
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Elite Alex
4 Archarcharch
5 Picko’s Pride
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Ghost is Clear
8 Grant Jack
9 Derivative
10 Brickyard Fast
11 Bonaroo
It was a very difficult race to handicap. As much as I like Elite Alex, I don’t think that this race is quite right for him. He should be running well in the stretch, but I like Yankee Passion to win. Yes, the colt has to prove himself at a mile, but I think that he has the raw talent to succeed in this race. As for J P’s Gusto, I believe that his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile run was deceptively good and that he will prove himself to be capable of running well on dirt today.
As for J.R., he’s sees things a bit differently from I, as usual. He sees Archarcharch rebounding off of his dismal effort in the Smarty Jones and grinding his way to an impressive win this afternoon. His complete picks are below. . .
1 Archarcharch
2 Elite Alex
3 Derivative
4 Ghost is Clear
5 J P’s Gusto
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Yankee Passion
8 Picko’s Pride
9 Bonaroo
10 Grant Jack
11 Brickyard Fast
It will be a fascinating race! J.R. and I are nearly tied in the standings of the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest, and this will be the deciding race of the weekend. Who will come away with the lead after week two?
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The seventh race at Oaklawn Park today merits attention. Alternation, who defeated Elite Alex last time out, is the 9-5 favorite in the mile and a sixteenth allowance race. Dreaminofthewin has the ability to upset him though. Last time out, he finished a late-running second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. This race should give us a preview as to who will win the Southwest Stakes later in the afternoon.
At Santa Anita, grade I winner Rigoletta will make her first start since winning the grade I Oak Leaf Stakes last fall in the grade III La Habla Stakes going 6-1/2 furlongs on the downhill turf course. However, she is 8-1 on the morning line and not expected to win. Still, the race merits watching to see how well she has recovered from her injury which kept her out of the Breeders’ Cup.
That’s all for now! Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
FEATURE RACE ---- Southwest Stakes (gr. III)
Oaklawn Park/One Mile/$250,000 Purse
The 2011 edition of the Southwest Stakes has drawn a large field of eleven sophomore colts, all with their sights set on the Kentucky Derby in May. The second in a series of four major Triple Crown prep races at Oaklawn, I expect some future stakes winners to emerge from this quality field.
Here are the entries. . .
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Caleb’s Posse 9-2 122
2 Derivative 8-1 115
3 Ghost is Clear 8-1 115
4 Grant Jack 15-1 119
5 J P’s Gusto 9-5 117
6 Archarcharch 10-1 117
7 Bonaroo 30-1 115
8 Yankee Passion 8-1 115
9 Elite Alex 4-1 115
10 Brickyard Fast 30-1 115
11 Picko’s Pride 30-1 115
Drawing the rail is Caleb’s Posse, winner of the local prep for this race, the Smarty Jones Stakes last month. The son of Posse also won the Clever Trevor Stakes last fall, but turned in a dismal seventh-place performance as the favorite in the Springboard Mile Stakes at the end of 2010. Although he is certainly a fine colt, he has not been coming home very fast at all in his races and will be carrying more weight than any of his rivals. Under these conditions, I’m afraid that I can’t see him winning. A wet track would increase his chances. Trained by Hemel Von, he will be ridden by E. Razo.
The next horse is Derivative. The colt has made six starts, all of them in maiden races. He has been improving with every start though and finally broke through with a win in his last start, a one-mile maiden special weight at Oaklawn just nine days ago. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, this front-running colt will likely help set the pace this afternoon, but I’m not sure that he is capable of holding off the numerous talented late runners in this race. T. Thompson will ride.
This brings us to Ghost is Clear. The son of Ghostzapper turned in a very strong performance at Fair Grounds on January 27th. In a six furlong maiden special weight, (his fourth start) the colt went straight to the lead, raced three wide around the turn, and drew off to win by 7 ¼ lengths in 1:10.47. He has to prove that he is capable of racing around two turns today, but I feel that he will not embarrass himself. Trained by Michael Maker, C. Lanerie has the mount.
Then there is Grant Jack, winner of the Springboard Mile Stakes in December of 2010. In that race, he defeated Brickyard Fast and Caleb’s Posse, both of whom are running in this race. However, he finished seventh in his most recent start, beaten 22 ½ lengths in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Perhaps he didn’t care for the off track that afternoon, or perhaps he set a pace that was too fast, but I don’t believe that he is quite talented enough to win this race. Trained by Bret Calhoun, he will be ridden by M. Berry.
J P’s Gusto, the morning line favorite, drew gate five. The immensely talented ridgling was the king of the California juveniles last summer, as he swept to victory in four stakes races which included the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II) and Del Mar Futurity (gr. I). However, the colt has not won since stretching out to two turns, failing in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I), the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I), and the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). On the other hand, he finished second in the Norfolk and CashCall Futurity and didn’t run all that badly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing five lengths out of third despite a very rough trip. He will have to prove that he can win on dirt, but he is the class of this race and should be right in contention. This will be his first start for his new trainer, Joe Petalino, and will be ridden by Eclipse award-winning rider Ramon Dominguez.
One of the more intriguing runners in this race is Archarcharch. Trained by William Fires, the son of Arch (who else!) finished second in a maiden special weight to begin his career. He then broke his maiden in the Sugar Bowl Stakes, turning in a very sharp performance indeed. He looked like a serious Triple Crown contender after that race, but a disappointing fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes has shattered that image. However, it is possible that he merely didn’t care for the wet track that day, and I am willing to give him a second chance here today. J. Court has the mount.
This brings us to Bonaroo. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the gelding has yet to win a race from four starts, but this has not stopped him from competing in stakes races. Entered in the Smarty Jones Stakes off of a second in a Keeneland maiden special weight in October, the colt was a distant fifth at 8.50-1. If you like his chances here, you will probably get more like 50-1 or 60-1. I believe that he is capable of hitting the board, but I can’t see him defeating this fine field of runners. The son of Dynaformer will be ridden by J. Johnson.
Yankee Passion is the next colt. Trained by Larry Jones, the son of Yankee Gentleman has won two of his three starts and finished second in the other. The speedy colt won an allowance optional claiming race last time out going six furlongs at Fair Grounds, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:10.88. However, this will be his first start beyond six furlongs and one must wonder if he can succeed at longer distances. A sharp five furlong workout February 16th signals his readiness. G. Saez will ride.
This brings us to Elite Alex, a very promising young colt with a bright future. The son of Afleet Alex broke his maiden in July of last year; then was given a lengthy break. His second start came in an allowance optional claiming race last month. In an incredible performance, the colt stumbled badly at the start, dropped well off the pace, circled the field with a tremendous run on the far turn, and missed the win in a stretch by a neck. He still has to prove that he is capable of winning a stakes race, but I believe that he has the talent. Trained by Tim Ritchey, he will be ridden by Calvin Borel.
Brickyard Fast drew gate ten. The son of Sharp Humor will be making his three-year-old debut. He proved to be a stakes-caliber colt in his final start as a juvenile, running second at 54-1 behind Grant Jack in the Springboard Mile Stakes. The front-running sophomore will probably help set the pace this afternoon; a difficult thing to do from the far outside. Time will tell if that effort is the standard or the exception for this colt, but he must at the very least be considered here. Trained by Joe Petalino, B. McNeil has the mount.
Finally, we come to Picko’s Pride. The son of Cactus Ridge broke his maiden first time out, but finished second, fourth, and second in his three starts since then, all in optional claiming company. Although a very nice colt, he just hasn’t shown the talent to win a race of this caliber. On the other hand, he closed well against Yankee Passion last time out and may improve in his second start off of a lengthy layoff. Trained by McLean Robertson, he will be ridden by I. Ocampo.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Yankee Passion
2 J P’s Gusto
3 Elite Alex
4 Archarcharch
5 Picko’s Pride
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Ghost is Clear
8 Grant Jack
9 Derivative
10 Brickyard Fast
11 Bonaroo
It was a very difficult race to handicap. As much as I like Elite Alex, I don’t think that this race is quite right for him. He should be running well in the stretch, but I like Yankee Passion to win. Yes, the colt has to prove himself at a mile, but I think that he has the raw talent to succeed in this race. As for J P’s Gusto, I believe that his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile run was deceptively good and that he will prove himself to be capable of running well on dirt today.
As for J.R., he’s sees things a bit differently from I, as usual. He sees Archarcharch rebounding off of his dismal effort in the Smarty Jones and grinding his way to an impressive win this afternoon. His complete picks are below. . .
1 Archarcharch
2 Elite Alex
3 Derivative
4 Ghost is Clear
5 J P’s Gusto
6 Caleb’s Posse
7 Yankee Passion
8 Picko’s Pride
9 Bonaroo
10 Grant Jack
11 Brickyard Fast
It will be a fascinating race! J.R. and I are nearly tied in the standings of the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest, and this will be the deciding race of the weekend. Who will come away with the lead after week two?
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The seventh race at Oaklawn Park today merits attention. Alternation, who defeated Elite Alex last time out, is the 9-5 favorite in the mile and a sixteenth allowance race. Dreaminofthewin has the ability to upset him though. Last time out, he finished a late-running second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. This race should give us a preview as to who will win the Southwest Stakes later in the afternoon.
At Santa Anita, grade I winner Rigoletta will make her first start since winning the grade I Oak Leaf Stakes last fall in the grade III La Habla Stakes going 6-1/2 furlongs on the downhill turf course. However, she is 8-1 on the morning line and not expected to win. Still, the race merits watching to see how well she has recovered from her injury which kept her out of the Breeders’ Cup.
That’s all for now! Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Sunday, February 20, 2011
SANTA ANITA UPDATE #6
In the final race of the day at Santa Anita Park, a $30,000 maiden claiming race, Sparrow rallied strongly in the stretch to give Joel Rosario his fourth win on the card.
Rated in third for much of the race, Sparrow tracked a fast early pace and began her move turning for home. 11-1 shot Cha Da Boom looked like a winner in midstretch, but just Sparrow closed too fast. She hit the wire three-quarters of a length in front, stopping the clock in :58.38.
Rolling Tide finished third, followed by Swiss Buddy. The winner paid $4.80.
That is the final update of the afternoon! As I suspected, Joel Rosario did indeed have a very good day today. From seven mounts, he had four wins and two seconds. Congratulation to Joel Rosario!
-Keelerman
Rated in third for much of the race, Sparrow tracked a fast early pace and began her move turning for home. 11-1 shot Cha Da Boom looked like a winner in midstretch, but just Sparrow closed too fast. She hit the wire three-quarters of a length in front, stopping the clock in :58.38.
Rolling Tide finished third, followed by Swiss Buddy. The winner paid $4.80.
That is the final update of the afternoon! As I suspected, Joel Rosario did indeed have a very good day today. From seven mounts, he had four wins and two seconds. Congratulation to Joel Rosario!
-Keelerman
THE FACTOR WINS THE SAN VICENTE!
4-5 favorite The Factor proved just how brilliant he is tonight at Santa Anita, holding off every one of his rivals to win the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) by a length.
The Factor had to work hard for the win. First, he had to duel the speedy City Cool into submission. To accomplish this feat he had to run the opening half-mile in :43.41. Then he had to hold off Sway Away, who turned in a tremendous rally in the final eighth of a mile. The Factor accomplished this too, hitting the wire a length in front of Sway Away while completing the seven furlong race in 1:20.34.
One must give credit to Sway Away, who rallied furiously in the stretch. Had the race been much longer, he would have been the winner. He looks like a serious Triple Crown contender who will relish additional distance.
Premier Pegasus ran a game race too, finishing third after tracking the early pace. Surrey Star finished fourth.
The winner is trained by Bob Baffert and was ridden by Martin Garcia. A $2 bet on the winner returned $3.80.
-Keelerman
The Factor had to work hard for the win. First, he had to duel the speedy City Cool into submission. To accomplish this feat he had to run the opening half-mile in :43.41. Then he had to hold off Sway Away, who turned in a tremendous rally in the final eighth of a mile. The Factor accomplished this too, hitting the wire a length in front of Sway Away while completing the seven furlong race in 1:20.34.
One must give credit to Sway Away, who rallied furiously in the stretch. Had the race been much longer, he would have been the winner. He looks like a serious Triple Crown contender who will relish additional distance.
Premier Pegasus ran a game race too, finishing third after tracking the early pace. Surrey Star finished fourth.
The winner is trained by Bob Baffert and was ridden by Martin Garcia. A $2 bet on the winner returned $3.80.
-Keelerman
SAN VICENTE STAKES UPDATE
It is currently three minutes until post time for the grade II San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Here are an update on the odds. . .
Surrey Star - 14-1
Sway Away - 3-1
Sinai - 5-1
City Cool - 15-1
The Factor - 4-5
Premier Pegasus - 6-1
Metropolitan Man, Indian Winter, and Oakcrest Drive have scratched.
Will The Factor take another step toward the Kentucky Derby with a stunning victory in a few moments? Or will he bounce off of his incredible maiden win and be upset? Is Twirling Candy's track record in danger? We'll find out soon!
-Keelerman
Surrey Star - 14-1
Sway Away - 3-1
Sinai - 5-1
City Cool - 15-1
The Factor - 4-5
Premier Pegasus - 6-1
Metropolitan Man, Indian Winter, and Oakcrest Drive have scratched.
Will The Factor take another step toward the Kentucky Derby with a stunning victory in a few moments? Or will he bounce off of his incredible maiden win and be upset? Is Twirling Candy's track record in danger? We'll find out soon!
-Keelerman
SANTA ANITA UPDATE #5
Maggie McGowan proved victorious in the seventh race at Santa Anita today, pulling away in the stretch under Martin Pedroza to win the 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by about 2 1/2 lengths.
Maggie McGowan sat just off of the early pace set by Warren's Lady, who ran the opening quarter mile in :21.50. She took over in the stretch and held off Alala, who closed strongly under Joel Rosario to finish second. The final time was 1:03.25.
-Keelerman
Maggie McGowan sat just off of the early pace set by Warren's Lady, who ran the opening quarter mile in :21.50. She took over in the stretch and held off Alala, who closed strongly under Joel Rosario to finish second. The final time was 1:03.25.
-Keelerman
SANTA ANITA UPDATE #4
The sixth race at Santa Anita went as expected, with favored Lost Prophet kicking clear from second choice Girlwiththegoldhoof in the stretch to win the $10,000 claiming race by three lengths.
Ridden by Joel Rosario, Lost Prophet did not break all that quickly but was sent straight to the lead. After setting a quick pace, it looked as though Girlwiththegoldhoof was going to win at the top of the stretch, but Lost Prophet drew off under urging to win the six furlong event in 1:09.56.
It was the third win of the day for Joel Rosario, who won the first two races on the card. A $2 bet on the winner returned $6.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Joel Rosario, Lost Prophet did not break all that quickly but was sent straight to the lead. After setting a quick pace, it looked as though Girlwiththegoldhoof was going to win at the top of the stretch, but Lost Prophet drew off under urging to win the six furlong event in 1:09.56.
It was the third win of the day for Joel Rosario, who won the first two races on the card. A $2 bet on the winner returned $6.
-Keelerman
SANTA ANITA UPDATE #3
Piney River, the 1-5 favorite under Martin Garcia, rallied from just off the pace to win the fifth race at Santa Anita, a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies. A daughter of In Excess, a $2 win bet returned $2.60. The final time was 1:03.94.
Swiss Charm rallied for second under Joel Rosario. Tribal Charm ran third.
-Keelerman
Swiss Charm rallied for second under Joel Rosario. Tribal Charm ran third.
-Keelerman
SANTA ANITA UPDATE #2
Sterling Outlook, the 8-5 favorite, went straight to the lead under jockey Garrett Gomez and never looked back en route to a 3 1/2 length triumph in Santa Anita's fourth race, a $56,000 allowance race.
Royal F J finished second, followed by Scofield Barracks and Atticus Jack. The final time was 1:34.98. Joel Rosario did not have a mount.
-Keelerman
Royal F J finished second, followed by Scofield Barracks and Atticus Jack. The final time was 1:34.98. Joel Rosario did not have a mount.
-Keelerman
SANTA ANITA UPDATE #1
Joel Rosario's mount, 4-5 favorite Syllabus, ran off the board in the third race at Santa Anita Park, an $8,000 claiming race. The winner was Flashmans Papers by a nose over Seth the Candeyman.
Rosario does not have a mount in the next race.
More updates as the races are run!
-Keelerman
Rosario does not have a mount in the next race.
More updates as the races are run!
-Keelerman
JOEL ROSARIO AT SANTA ANITA PARK
Joel Rosario is one of my favorite riders. He is immensely talented and is rapidly becoming one of the best riders in the country.
Joel Rosario is also sitting on a very big day today at Santa Anita Park.
Two races have been run at Santa Anita so far this afternoon, and Rosario has won both of them. First, he rode even-money favorite Dextera to victory in race #1, a $12,500 claiming race. He then won the second race, a $30,000 maiden claiming event, on 1-2 favorite Wholelotacongrats. His remaining mounts are these:
Race 3: Syllabus (6-5 favorite)
Race 4: No Mount
Race 5: Swiss Charm (4-1 second choice)
Race 6: Lost Prophet (5-2 favorite)
Race 7: Alala (9-2 third choice)
Race 8: No Mount
Race 9: Sparrow (2-1 favorite)
Therefore, Joel Rosario will be riding three of the favorites in the remainder of the race. His other two mounts have excellent chances as well. It's possible that Rosario could win four, five, or even six races today! I will be posting the results of each race at Santa Anita today beginning with race three, and you can follow Rosario's progress along with me. Enjoy!
Joel Rosario is also sitting on a very big day today at Santa Anita Park.
Two races have been run at Santa Anita so far this afternoon, and Rosario has won both of them. First, he rode even-money favorite Dextera to victory in race #1, a $12,500 claiming race. He then won the second race, a $30,000 maiden claiming event, on 1-2 favorite Wholelotacongrats. His remaining mounts are these:
Race 3: Syllabus (6-5 favorite)
Race 4: No Mount
Race 5: Swiss Charm (4-1 second choice)
Race 6: Lost Prophet (5-2 favorite)
Race 7: Alala (9-2 third choice)
Race 8: No Mount
Race 9: Sparrow (2-1 favorite)
Therefore, Joel Rosario will be riding three of the favorites in the remainder of the race. His other two mounts have excellent chances as well. It's possible that Rosario could win four, five, or even six races today! I will be posting the results of each race at Santa Anita today beginning with race three, and you can follow Rosario's progress along with me. Enjoy!
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 20th, 2011
Today is the day of the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park. A seven furlong event for three-year-old colts, nine horses have entered. However, it is highly possible that only one colt will matter in the end: The Factor.
FEATURE RACE ---- San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)
Santa Anita, 7 furlongs, $150,000 purse
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Surrey Star 8-1 118
2 Metropolitan Man 12-1 118
3 Sway Away 4-1 118
4 Sinai 8-1 118
5 Indian Winter 9-2 118
6 City Cool 8-1 118
7 The Factor 8-5 118
8 Premier Pegasus 8-1 120
9 Oakcrest Drive 15-1 118
No matter who you pick to win this race, I can guarantee that your eyes will be on The Factor. The brilliant son of War Front broke his maiden on December 6th, 2010 at Santa Anita.
He started well and raced away to take the lead.
He never looked back.
He won eased up.
He won in 1:06.98.
Track record time.
Despite running his first quarter mile that day in :21.62, he still managed to come home in :11.56. That is the performance of a potential superstar. The colt is trained by Bob Baffert, and will be ridden by Martin Garcia. This colt is so good that he can bounce off of his maiden victory; run a less than stellar race by his own standards and still win. However, it’s worth noting that this colt suffered from a foot bruise a few weeks ago and has only recorded two workouts for this race. It shouldn’t stop him from winning, but it is worth noting.
A variety of fine colts have turned out to try and defeat The Factor, but none of them appear good enough on paper to pull the upset. The second choice is Sway Away, a son of Afleet Alex who has not raced since finishing second to J P’s Gusto in the Best Pal Stakes over Del Mar’s synthetic surface. However, he broke his maiden on dirt in his first start, so he does have some experience over the surface. He has been working sharply for this race, with his most recent workout being six furlongs in 1:11 4/5 at Santa Anita. Trained by Jeff Bonde, Garrett Gomez will ride. He may have the best chance at upsetting The Factor.
Another interesting colt is Indian Winter. The son of Indian Charlie won the San Pedro Stakes by a half-length on January 11th, signaling his affinity for the surface. If the pace is hot today, expect him to be rallying fast at the finish. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the colt had previously finished third in the grade I Del Mar Futurity. Martin Pedroza has the mount.
Sinai is eligible to step up and run a good race here. The colt broke his maiden impressively on December 18th at Hollywood Park. However, a rough trip in the San Pedro Stakes saw him finish third, beaten 1 ¾ lengths by Indian Winter. A cleaner trip could enable him to run better today. Trained by Bob Baffert, the colt will be racing without blinkers today and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.
Premier Pegasus is a bit of a longshot at 8-1 on the morning line, despite the fact that he is an undefeated multiple stakes winner. Trained by Myung Cho, the son of Fusaichi Pegasus colt broke his maiden in July at Del Mar. He did not return to the races until October 23rd, when he won the Jack Goodman Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion during the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park. He then won the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) at Hollywood Park in similar fashion, winning the race by 1 ½ lengths over Industry Leader. However, Premier Pegasus will be making his first start on dirt today, and although he will probably love it, one must wonder. I have the suspicion that he isn’t quite quick enough to get to the lead today. A. Quinonez will ride.
One colt who has shown the speed to get to the lead here is City Cool. The blazingly-fast son of City Zip most recently finished second in the San Pedro Stakes, beaten just a half-length by Indian Winter. He accomplished this despite setting fractions of :21.22 and :43.69. Trained by Steve Asmussen, I can’t see this colt holding on going seven furlongs unless he sets a much more moderate pace. This is easier said than done with The Factor, Premier Pegasus, and Metropolitan Man in the race. He will be ridden by Joe Talamo.
Speaking of Metropolitan Man, he is one of the more intriguing runners in this race. Trained by Vladimir Cerin, the gelding broke his maiden on April 22, 2010 at Keeneland going 4-1/2 furlongs. A trip to England to run in the June 15th Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot yielded disappointing results, as the colt finished ninth of fourteen. He did not return to the races until January 13th, 2011, when he finished second in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race on the downhill turf at Santa Anita Park. The son of Hook and Ladder will have to prove himself on dirt today, and run farther than he has ever run before. I can’t see him winning under these conditions. He will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela.
Surry Star is also a very interesting colt. He made his first eight starts as a juvenile in England, winning only one race but placing in a pair of group III stakes races. Shipped to United States for his final start of 2010, he ran a fairly strong third in the grade III Generous Stakes behind Comma to the Top. If he can transfer his turf form to the main track, he could rally late to hit the board. Trained by James Cassidy, the son of Dubawi will be ridden by Mike Smith.
Finally, we come to Oakcrest Drive. A son of Arch, the gelding broke his maiden second time out going 6-1/2 furlongs on the main track Hollywood Park. Tried on turf in the Eddie Logan Stakes, a less than ideal trip caused the colt to end up fifth, beaten 5 ½ lengths by Silver Medallion. Trained by James Cassidy, the colt would really have to step up today to hit the board. Victor Espinoza has the mount.
Here are my picks. . .
1 The Factor
2 Indian Winter
3 Sway Away
4 Premier Pegasus
5 Sinai
6 Surrey Star
7 Oakcrest Drive
8 City Cool
9 Metropolitan Man
I would be shocked if The Factor loses this race. He maiden win was just above and beyond anything his opponents have done to date. Perhaps the foot bruise and lack of training will defeat him, but I think that he can overcome them.
However, J.R. has other ideas. As usual, he will try to beat the favorite. Today, he has come up with Sinai to win. He believes that the colt could have run better in the San Pedro with a cleaner trip and will rebound with a shocking victory over The Factor. He feels that The Factor has not been adequately prepared for a race of this caliber due to the foot bruise.
Here are his complete picks. . .
1 Sinai
2 The Factor
3 Sway Away
4 Indian Winter
5 Oakcrest Drive
6 Premier Pegasus
7 Surrey Star
8 Metropolitan Man
9 City Cool
Seeing that I am well behind J.R. in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest (he leads me 23 to 12 at the moment!) I am hoping that, at the very least, The Factor finishes ahead of Sinai regardless of whether he wins or not. :)
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Busher Stakes at Aqueduct has drawn a small but talented field of five fillies. The morning line favorite at 4-5 is It’s Tricky, who is undefeated in two starts. She broke her maiden going six furlongs at Aqueduct before winning a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race, also at Aqueduct. She looks like a very promising young filly with a bright future!
Her main competition will likely come from Dance Quietly, who won the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct on January 8th. She has been getting better and better and may prove to be more than It’s Tricky can handle.
At Oaklawn Park, the second race on Sunday warrants attention. A six furlong allowance race for three-year-olds that have never won two races, it has drawn a field of six. The morning line favorite is Casperzapper, who has only won once from five starts. Most recently, he finished a very distant fourth behind Alternation, Elite Alex, and Commander in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race. Considering that Elite Alex is one of the favorites for Monday’s Southwest Stakes, I believe that Casperzapper will run quite well today.
That’s everything for now! I’ll be back tomorrow with my picks for the Southwest Stakes, as well as a few other races. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
FEATURE RACE ---- San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)
Santa Anita, 7 furlongs, $150,000 purse
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Surrey Star 8-1 118
2 Metropolitan Man 12-1 118
3 Sway Away 4-1 118
4 Sinai 8-1 118
5 Indian Winter 9-2 118
6 City Cool 8-1 118
7 The Factor 8-5 118
8 Premier Pegasus 8-1 120
9 Oakcrest Drive 15-1 118
No matter who you pick to win this race, I can guarantee that your eyes will be on The Factor. The brilliant son of War Front broke his maiden on December 6th, 2010 at Santa Anita.
He started well and raced away to take the lead.
He never looked back.
He won eased up.
He won in 1:06.98.
Track record time.
Despite running his first quarter mile that day in :21.62, he still managed to come home in :11.56. That is the performance of a potential superstar. The colt is trained by Bob Baffert, and will be ridden by Martin Garcia. This colt is so good that he can bounce off of his maiden victory; run a less than stellar race by his own standards and still win. However, it’s worth noting that this colt suffered from a foot bruise a few weeks ago and has only recorded two workouts for this race. It shouldn’t stop him from winning, but it is worth noting.
A variety of fine colts have turned out to try and defeat The Factor, but none of them appear good enough on paper to pull the upset. The second choice is Sway Away, a son of Afleet Alex who has not raced since finishing second to J P’s Gusto in the Best Pal Stakes over Del Mar’s synthetic surface. However, he broke his maiden on dirt in his first start, so he does have some experience over the surface. He has been working sharply for this race, with his most recent workout being six furlongs in 1:11 4/5 at Santa Anita. Trained by Jeff Bonde, Garrett Gomez will ride. He may have the best chance at upsetting The Factor.
Another interesting colt is Indian Winter. The son of Indian Charlie won the San Pedro Stakes by a half-length on January 11th, signaling his affinity for the surface. If the pace is hot today, expect him to be rallying fast at the finish. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the colt had previously finished third in the grade I Del Mar Futurity. Martin Pedroza has the mount.
Sinai is eligible to step up and run a good race here. The colt broke his maiden impressively on December 18th at Hollywood Park. However, a rough trip in the San Pedro Stakes saw him finish third, beaten 1 ¾ lengths by Indian Winter. A cleaner trip could enable him to run better today. Trained by Bob Baffert, the colt will be racing without blinkers today and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.
Premier Pegasus is a bit of a longshot at 8-1 on the morning line, despite the fact that he is an undefeated multiple stakes winner. Trained by Myung Cho, the son of Fusaichi Pegasus colt broke his maiden in July at Del Mar. He did not return to the races until October 23rd, when he won the Jack Goodman Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion during the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park. He then won the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) at Hollywood Park in similar fashion, winning the race by 1 ½ lengths over Industry Leader. However, Premier Pegasus will be making his first start on dirt today, and although he will probably love it, one must wonder. I have the suspicion that he isn’t quite quick enough to get to the lead today. A. Quinonez will ride.
One colt who has shown the speed to get to the lead here is City Cool. The blazingly-fast son of City Zip most recently finished second in the San Pedro Stakes, beaten just a half-length by Indian Winter. He accomplished this despite setting fractions of :21.22 and :43.69. Trained by Steve Asmussen, I can’t see this colt holding on going seven furlongs unless he sets a much more moderate pace. This is easier said than done with The Factor, Premier Pegasus, and Metropolitan Man in the race. He will be ridden by Joe Talamo.
Speaking of Metropolitan Man, he is one of the more intriguing runners in this race. Trained by Vladimir Cerin, the gelding broke his maiden on April 22, 2010 at Keeneland going 4-1/2 furlongs. A trip to England to run in the June 15th Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot yielded disappointing results, as the colt finished ninth of fourteen. He did not return to the races until January 13th, 2011, when he finished second in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race on the downhill turf at Santa Anita Park. The son of Hook and Ladder will have to prove himself on dirt today, and run farther than he has ever run before. I can’t see him winning under these conditions. He will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela.
Surry Star is also a very interesting colt. He made his first eight starts as a juvenile in England, winning only one race but placing in a pair of group III stakes races. Shipped to United States for his final start of 2010, he ran a fairly strong third in the grade III Generous Stakes behind Comma to the Top. If he can transfer his turf form to the main track, he could rally late to hit the board. Trained by James Cassidy, the son of Dubawi will be ridden by Mike Smith.
Finally, we come to Oakcrest Drive. A son of Arch, the gelding broke his maiden second time out going 6-1/2 furlongs on the main track Hollywood Park. Tried on turf in the Eddie Logan Stakes, a less than ideal trip caused the colt to end up fifth, beaten 5 ½ lengths by Silver Medallion. Trained by James Cassidy, the colt would really have to step up today to hit the board. Victor Espinoza has the mount.
Here are my picks. . .
1 The Factor
2 Indian Winter
3 Sway Away
4 Premier Pegasus
5 Sinai
6 Surrey Star
7 Oakcrest Drive
8 City Cool
9 Metropolitan Man
I would be shocked if The Factor loses this race. He maiden win was just above and beyond anything his opponents have done to date. Perhaps the foot bruise and lack of training will defeat him, but I think that he can overcome them.
However, J.R. has other ideas. As usual, he will try to beat the favorite. Today, he has come up with Sinai to win. He believes that the colt could have run better in the San Pedro with a cleaner trip and will rebound with a shocking victory over The Factor. He feels that The Factor has not been adequately prepared for a race of this caliber due to the foot bruise.
Here are his complete picks. . .
1 Sinai
2 The Factor
3 Sway Away
4 Indian Winter
5 Oakcrest Drive
6 Premier Pegasus
7 Surrey Star
8 Metropolitan Man
9 City Cool
Seeing that I am well behind J.R. in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest (he leads me 23 to 12 at the moment!) I am hoping that, at the very least, The Factor finishes ahead of Sinai regardless of whether he wins or not. :)
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Busher Stakes at Aqueduct has drawn a small but talented field of five fillies. The morning line favorite at 4-5 is It’s Tricky, who is undefeated in two starts. She broke her maiden going six furlongs at Aqueduct before winning a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race, also at Aqueduct. She looks like a very promising young filly with a bright future!
Her main competition will likely come from Dance Quietly, who won the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct on January 8th. She has been getting better and better and may prove to be more than It’s Tricky can handle.
At Oaklawn Park, the second race on Sunday warrants attention. A six furlong allowance race for three-year-olds that have never won two races, it has drawn a field of six. The morning line favorite is Casperzapper, who has only won once from five starts. Most recently, he finished a very distant fourth behind Alternation, Elite Alex, and Commander in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race. Considering that Elite Alex is one of the favorites for Monday’s Southwest Stakes, I believe that Casperzapper will run quite well today.
That’s everything for now! I’ll be back tomorrow with my picks for the Southwest Stakes, as well as a few other races. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Saturday, February 19, 2011
MUCHO MACHO MAN WINS THE RISEN STAR!
Mucho Macho Man rebounded nicely off of his loss in the Holy Bull Stakes last month when he took the lead in the stretch and held off all challengers to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds.
Ridden by Rajiv Maragh, the colt tracked the early pace set by Decisive Moment. Santiva was not far behind them, and Rogue Romance was fairly close too. Machen, who broke dead last, was faced with the difficult task of winning while racing wide.
Mucho Macho Man took over the lead on the far turn and opened up a lead as the field entered the homestretch. Santiva and Rogue Romance gave chase, but neither proved good enough to catch the runaway leader. Mucho Macho Man won by two lengths in 1:43.98.
Santiva finished second, followed by Rogue Romance, Machen, Decisive Moment, Pants On Fire, Action Ready, Justin Philip, Sorgho, and Liondrive.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Rajiv Maragh, the colt tracked the early pace set by Decisive Moment. Santiva was not far behind them, and Rogue Romance was fairly close too. Machen, who broke dead last, was faced with the difficult task of winning while racing wide.
Mucho Macho Man took over the lead on the far turn and opened up a lead as the field entered the homestretch. Santiva and Rogue Romance gave chase, but neither proved good enough to catch the runaway leader. Mucho Macho Man won by two lengths in 1:43.98.
Santiva finished second, followed by Rogue Romance, Machen, Decisive Moment, Pants On Fire, Action Ready, Justin Philip, Sorgho, and Liondrive.
-Keelerman
KATHMANBLU WINS THE RACHEL ALEXANDRA STAKES!
Kathmanblu, the heavy favorite at 3-5, rallied strongly in the homestretch to win the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) by two lengths at Fair Grounds.
Ridden by Julien Leparoux, the filly sat fourth in the early going, well off of the pace set by Gran Lioness. Bouquet Booth was sitting in second, followed by Chloe Kate. Tapit Dancer and Inglorious trailed.
The positions remained relatively unchanged until the stretch. At that point Bouquet Booth and Kathmanblu began their bids for the lead, and Inglorious was gearing up on the outside. But Kathmanblu proved better than both of them, drawing away under urging to win. Inglorious rallied gamely for second, while Gran Lioness held third over Bouquet Booth.
The final time was 1:45.13.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Julien Leparoux, the filly sat fourth in the early going, well off of the pace set by Gran Lioness. Bouquet Booth was sitting in second, followed by Chloe Kate. Tapit Dancer and Inglorious trailed.
The positions remained relatively unchanged until the stretch. At that point Bouquet Booth and Kathmanblu began their bids for the lead, and Inglorious was gearing up on the outside. But Kathmanblu proved better than both of them, drawing away under urging to win. Inglorious rallied gamely for second, while Gran Lioness held third over Bouquet Booth.
The final time was 1:45.13.
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 18th, 2011
Three more graded stakes races for three-year-old colts are on this week's schedule -- the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds, the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) and the Southwest Stakes (gr. III). Among the sophomores gearing up for the Triple Crown in these races are Rogue Romance, Santiva, Decisive Moment, The Factor, Mucho Macho Man, Machen, J P's Gusto, Elite Alex, and Premier Pegasus. It doesn't get much better than this!
I went back and forth trying to decide between this weekend's feature race. I couldn't decide between the big three prep races. Finally, I made my decision -- I shall focus on all three!
Because the trio of races are spread of three days (The Risen Star is on Saturday; the San Vicente on Sunday; the Southwest on Monday) I have decided to do three "Triple Crown Countdown" posts over the next three days, focusing on one race at a time. Today's feature race shall therefore be the one that is soonest, the Risen Star Stakes. Enjoy!
FEATURE RACE ---- The Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the Fair Grounds main track. $300,000 purse.
The Risen Star Stakes has drawn a field of ten horses, of which six have morning line odds of 6-1 or less. It is a very evenly matched race and I am positive that one or two serious Kentucky Derby contenders will emerge from this race.
The field consists of. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds/ Weight
1 Rogue Romance 3-1 126
2 Liondrive 50-1 116
3 Decisive Moment 9-2 120
4 Pants On Fire 6-1 116
5 Mucho Macho Man 4-1 116
6 Machen 6-1 116
7 Santiva 6-1 122
8 Action Ready 12-1 116
9 Justin Philip 8-1 116
10 Sorgho 30-1 116
It's hard not to like morning line favorite Rogue Romance. The colt proved quite skilled on turf as a juvenile, winning the grade III Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland with a brilliant last-to-first move. However, the colt proved just as good—if not better—on dirt, running third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind Eclipse champion Uncle Mo and grade I stakes winner Boys at Tosconova. The Risen Star will mark his first start since the Breeders' Cup, as the colt was given a lengthy break after his fine performance. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, the chestnut son of Smarty Jones has been training well for this race, with a sharp five furlong breeze in 1:00 flat on February 5th signaling his readiness. To be ridden by Julien Leparoux, the late-running colt should relish Fair Ground’s long homestretch.
Liondrive will be breaking from gate two. The longest shot on the morning line, he comes into the Risen Star off of a last place finish in an allowance race, where he finished 54 ½ lengths behind the winner. This performance does not inspire confidence in his chances tomorrow; nor do his previous eight starts. His three stakes tries to date have resulted in a pair of fifths and an eighth. Trained by Tim Ice, Liondrive would have to run considerably better tomorrow than he has ever run in his life if he is to hit the board. C. Sutherland will ride.
Decisive Moment, the third choice on the morning line, has shown great consistency in a career which has spanned six starts. Only his odds have been inconsistent – he has been sent off at anything from 1.20-1 to 48.20-1. He has yet to run worse than fourth. He broke his maiden by a head first time out at Calder Race Course; then ran fourth in the Dr. Fager Stakes at that same track. A third-place finish in a Calder allowance race was followed by a third in the In Reality Stakes, also at Calder. His first start at a track other than Calder resulted in his sharpest performance to that point, as the colt ran a bang-up second to Gourmet Dinner in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes. His most recent start came in the Jean Lafitte Stakes, where he won by an easy 3 ½ lengths in front-running fashion. He will likely set the pace tomorrow and has an excellent chance at hanging on to win. Trained by Juan Arias, he will be ridden by K. Clark.
Pants On Fire is a fine colt, but I can’t see him winning here. A front runner, he most recently finished a game second to Wilkinson in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III), beaten just a head. However, the colt was unable to hold off the winner despite setting a very slow pace (a half-mile in :48 4/5; three-quarters in 1:13 3/5). A slightly faster pace in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct resulted in being beat by more, as he finished third, beaten 4 ½ lengths after setting fractions of :47 2/5 and 1:12 1/5. Trained by Kelly Breen, I’m certain that Pants On Fire will win a stakes race someday, but under these conditions I can’t see him winning here. J. Bravo has the mount.
This brings us to Mucho Macho Man, beaten favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out. The son of Macho Uno finished second twice behind To Honor and Serve in both Nashua and Remsen Stakes (both grade II). His performance in the Remsen was admirable, as he chased the pace set by To Honor and Serve, dropped to four lengths behind him passing the eighth pole, and then closed again to be beaten only two lengths. His performance in the Holy Bull actually wasn’t that bad, as he was bumped hard early in the race but recovered to press a fast pace while very wide. Despite all this, he held on well until deep stretch, finishing fourth in the end. A better trip tomorrow may be all he needs to win. Trained by Kathy Ritvo, he will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh. He will also be racing without his usual blinkers tomorrow.
Machen drew gate six. An undefeated son of Distorted Humor, the colt broke his maiden by 5 ½ lengths going six furlongs over this track. He then won an allowance optional claiming race on January 30th in a performance which awed many who saw it. Despite being rank in the early going and trapped behind horses with nowhere to go in the stretch, the colt split horses like a professional and drew off to win by five lengths. He barely did any running at all, perhaps only really driving for an eighth of a mile. I believe that an equally astonishing performance will be seen from this colt tomorrow. Trained by Neil Howard, the colt will be ridden by J. Theriot.
Santiva is perhaps one of the more intriguing horses in this race. A son of Giant’s Causeway, he finished third in his first start, a maiden special weight. He then finished second again in a maiden special weight. Then he was moved from the barn of Kenneth McPeek to the barn of Todd Pletcher. His third start came in the grade I Breeders’ Futurity, where he ran second. He was then transferred to the barn of Eddie Kenneally. Entered next in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), the colt gamely held off challenges from both sides to win by a half-length, officially leaving the maiden ranks. However, the colt has never earned a very high speed figure and will have to show some improvement to win here tomorrow. He will be ridden by Mike Smith, who will become the fourth different jockey to pilot this fine sophomore.
Action Ready is the next colt. He has never run a really bad race, but has yet to run a really good race either. The son of More Than Ready most recently finished third in the LeComte Stakes, beaten five lengths by Wilkinson and Pants On Fire. To be ridden by Rosie Napravnik, he would have to show a great deal of improvement to threaten tomorrow. He is trained by Bret Calhoun.
Then there is Justin Philip, a son of First Samurai. The promising youngster had never finished worse than third going into the LeComte Stakes. Sent off as the favorite there while wearing blinkers for the first time, the colt was rank and tired to finish last, beaten 14 ½ lengths. The colt is notorious for breaking poorly, so that is one more thing that this colt must overcome to win tomorrow. He will be racing without blinkers tomorrow. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan.
Finally, we come to Sorgho. The colt broke his maiden last time out at Sam Houston, winning a maiden special weight by two lengths. It was the son of Storm Cat’s third race; he had previously finished third and ninth in a pair of similar events. However, the colt does not seem to be fast enough to compete against these colts. Trained by William Bennett, E. Martin has the mount.
Choosing between these fine colts is difficult, but here are my selections. . .
1 Machen
2 Decisive Moment
3 Rogue Romance
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Santiva
6 Justin Philip
7 Action Ready
8 Pants On Fire
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
In my opinion, there is virtually no separation between my top five picks. Any one of them is capable of stepping up and winning. I went with Machen because I was extremely impressed by his last race and feel he has a lot of talent to give. I nearly picked Decisive Moment off of his excellent last two starts, but I have a feeling that he may get caught in a bit of a speed duel early. Rogue Romance should run quite well, but he may not be at his very best having not raced since early November.
Of course, I'm sure that many of you are eagerly anticipating J.R.'s picks. As this is the second week of the handicapping contest, he has thoroughly handicapped these races in an attempt to outpick me. For more details, please read J.R.'s Top Ten and the Handicapping Contest. (link)
Here are his picks. . .
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Justin Philip
3 Rogue Romance
4 Decisive Moment
5 Pants On Fire
6 Santiva
7 Machen
8 Action Ready
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
He feels that Mucho Macho Man will rebound nicely off of his loss in the Holy Bull Stakes. He feels that this race is a drop in class and the removal of blinkers will help the colt relax early on. We'll see who wins!
OTHER RACES OF NOTE
There is an incredible set of stakes races on the undercard of the Risen Star Stakes. One of the most fascinating is the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) for three-year-old fillies.
For the mile and a sixteenth event, Kathmanblu is the 6-5 morning line favorite. The filly has won three stakes races on both turf and dirt, including the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) by 8 1/2 lengths. She is one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks in May and I expect her to win this race rather easily.
However, Bouquet Booth has a good chance at winning as well. She has won three straight races, including the grade III Delta Downs Princess Stakes and the Silverbulletday Stakes last time out. The latter came over the local course, so she does have the "home court advantage" over Kathmanblu.
At Sam Houston Race Park, there’s a pair of interesting stakes race for three-year-olds. They are the Jim's Orbit Stakes for colts and geldings and the Two Altazano Stakes for fillies. Both have drawn very fascinating fields.
In the Two Altazano, the morning line favorite is Patty's Pride, who enters the race off of a second place finish, beaten a nose, in the Bara Lass Stakes at this track. It was a very strong performance that should set her up well for tomorrow's race.
Tamtastic is favored in the Jim's Orbit. The colt has finished first or second in six of his seven starts, with his only off-the-board performance being a sixth in the Texas Stallion Stakes after a very rough trip. His most recent race came in the Groovy Stakes at this track, where he was beaten just a half-length by the fine colt Aces N Kings. I expect him to run very well here.
That's all for now! I shall be back on Saturday with my thoughts on the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
I went back and forth trying to decide between this weekend's feature race. I couldn't decide between the big three prep races. Finally, I made my decision -- I shall focus on all three!
Because the trio of races are spread of three days (The Risen Star is on Saturday; the San Vicente on Sunday; the Southwest on Monday) I have decided to do three "Triple Crown Countdown" posts over the next three days, focusing on one race at a time. Today's feature race shall therefore be the one that is soonest, the Risen Star Stakes. Enjoy!
FEATURE RACE ---- The Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the Fair Grounds main track. $300,000 purse.
The Risen Star Stakes has drawn a field of ten horses, of which six have morning line odds of 6-1 or less. It is a very evenly matched race and I am positive that one or two serious Kentucky Derby contenders will emerge from this race.
The field consists of. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds/ Weight
1 Rogue Romance 3-1 126
2 Liondrive 50-1 116
3 Decisive Moment 9-2 120
4 Pants On Fire 6-1 116
5 Mucho Macho Man 4-1 116
6 Machen 6-1 116
7 Santiva 6-1 122
8 Action Ready 12-1 116
9 Justin Philip 8-1 116
10 Sorgho 30-1 116
It's hard not to like morning line favorite Rogue Romance. The colt proved quite skilled on turf as a juvenile, winning the grade III Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland with a brilliant last-to-first move. However, the colt proved just as good—if not better—on dirt, running third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind Eclipse champion Uncle Mo and grade I stakes winner Boys at Tosconova. The Risen Star will mark his first start since the Breeders' Cup, as the colt was given a lengthy break after his fine performance. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, the chestnut son of Smarty Jones has been training well for this race, with a sharp five furlong breeze in 1:00 flat on February 5th signaling his readiness. To be ridden by Julien Leparoux, the late-running colt should relish Fair Ground’s long homestretch.
Liondrive will be breaking from gate two. The longest shot on the morning line, he comes into the Risen Star off of a last place finish in an allowance race, where he finished 54 ½ lengths behind the winner. This performance does not inspire confidence in his chances tomorrow; nor do his previous eight starts. His three stakes tries to date have resulted in a pair of fifths and an eighth. Trained by Tim Ice, Liondrive would have to run considerably better tomorrow than he has ever run in his life if he is to hit the board. C. Sutherland will ride.
Decisive Moment, the third choice on the morning line, has shown great consistency in a career which has spanned six starts. Only his odds have been inconsistent – he has been sent off at anything from 1.20-1 to 48.20-1. He has yet to run worse than fourth. He broke his maiden by a head first time out at Calder Race Course; then ran fourth in the Dr. Fager Stakes at that same track. A third-place finish in a Calder allowance race was followed by a third in the In Reality Stakes, also at Calder. His first start at a track other than Calder resulted in his sharpest performance to that point, as the colt ran a bang-up second to Gourmet Dinner in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes. His most recent start came in the Jean Lafitte Stakes, where he won by an easy 3 ½ lengths in front-running fashion. He will likely set the pace tomorrow and has an excellent chance at hanging on to win. Trained by Juan Arias, he will be ridden by K. Clark.
Pants On Fire is a fine colt, but I can’t see him winning here. A front runner, he most recently finished a game second to Wilkinson in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III), beaten just a head. However, the colt was unable to hold off the winner despite setting a very slow pace (a half-mile in :48 4/5; three-quarters in 1:13 3/5). A slightly faster pace in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct resulted in being beat by more, as he finished third, beaten 4 ½ lengths after setting fractions of :47 2/5 and 1:12 1/5. Trained by Kelly Breen, I’m certain that Pants On Fire will win a stakes race someday, but under these conditions I can’t see him winning here. J. Bravo has the mount.
This brings us to Mucho Macho Man, beaten favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out. The son of Macho Uno finished second twice behind To Honor and Serve in both Nashua and Remsen Stakes (both grade II). His performance in the Remsen was admirable, as he chased the pace set by To Honor and Serve, dropped to four lengths behind him passing the eighth pole, and then closed again to be beaten only two lengths. His performance in the Holy Bull actually wasn’t that bad, as he was bumped hard early in the race but recovered to press a fast pace while very wide. Despite all this, he held on well until deep stretch, finishing fourth in the end. A better trip tomorrow may be all he needs to win. Trained by Kathy Ritvo, he will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh. He will also be racing without his usual blinkers tomorrow.
Machen drew gate six. An undefeated son of Distorted Humor, the colt broke his maiden by 5 ½ lengths going six furlongs over this track. He then won an allowance optional claiming race on January 30th in a performance which awed many who saw it. Despite being rank in the early going and trapped behind horses with nowhere to go in the stretch, the colt split horses like a professional and drew off to win by five lengths. He barely did any running at all, perhaps only really driving for an eighth of a mile. I believe that an equally astonishing performance will be seen from this colt tomorrow. Trained by Neil Howard, the colt will be ridden by J. Theriot.
Santiva is perhaps one of the more intriguing horses in this race. A son of Giant’s Causeway, he finished third in his first start, a maiden special weight. He then finished second again in a maiden special weight. Then he was moved from the barn of Kenneth McPeek to the barn of Todd Pletcher. His third start came in the grade I Breeders’ Futurity, where he ran second. He was then transferred to the barn of Eddie Kenneally. Entered next in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), the colt gamely held off challenges from both sides to win by a half-length, officially leaving the maiden ranks. However, the colt has never earned a very high speed figure and will have to show some improvement to win here tomorrow. He will be ridden by Mike Smith, who will become the fourth different jockey to pilot this fine sophomore.
Action Ready is the next colt. He has never run a really bad race, but has yet to run a really good race either. The son of More Than Ready most recently finished third in the LeComte Stakes, beaten five lengths by Wilkinson and Pants On Fire. To be ridden by Rosie Napravnik, he would have to show a great deal of improvement to threaten tomorrow. He is trained by Bret Calhoun.
Then there is Justin Philip, a son of First Samurai. The promising youngster had never finished worse than third going into the LeComte Stakes. Sent off as the favorite there while wearing blinkers for the first time, the colt was rank and tired to finish last, beaten 14 ½ lengths. The colt is notorious for breaking poorly, so that is one more thing that this colt must overcome to win tomorrow. He will be racing without blinkers tomorrow. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan.
Finally, we come to Sorgho. The colt broke his maiden last time out at Sam Houston, winning a maiden special weight by two lengths. It was the son of Storm Cat’s third race; he had previously finished third and ninth in a pair of similar events. However, the colt does not seem to be fast enough to compete against these colts. Trained by William Bennett, E. Martin has the mount.
Choosing between these fine colts is difficult, but here are my selections. . .
1 Machen
2 Decisive Moment
3 Rogue Romance
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Santiva
6 Justin Philip
7 Action Ready
8 Pants On Fire
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
In my opinion, there is virtually no separation between my top five picks. Any one of them is capable of stepping up and winning. I went with Machen because I was extremely impressed by his last race and feel he has a lot of talent to give. I nearly picked Decisive Moment off of his excellent last two starts, but I have a feeling that he may get caught in a bit of a speed duel early. Rogue Romance should run quite well, but he may not be at his very best having not raced since early November.
Of course, I'm sure that many of you are eagerly anticipating J.R.'s picks. As this is the second week of the handicapping contest, he has thoroughly handicapped these races in an attempt to outpick me. For more details, please read J.R.'s Top Ten and the Handicapping Contest. (link)
Here are his picks. . .
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Justin Philip
3 Rogue Romance
4 Decisive Moment
5 Pants On Fire
6 Santiva
7 Machen
8 Action Ready
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
He feels that Mucho Macho Man will rebound nicely off of his loss in the Holy Bull Stakes. He feels that this race is a drop in class and the removal of blinkers will help the colt relax early on. We'll see who wins!
OTHER RACES OF NOTE
There is an incredible set of stakes races on the undercard of the Risen Star Stakes. One of the most fascinating is the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) for three-year-old fillies.
For the mile and a sixteenth event, Kathmanblu is the 6-5 morning line favorite. The filly has won three stakes races on both turf and dirt, including the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) by 8 1/2 lengths. She is one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks in May and I expect her to win this race rather easily.
However, Bouquet Booth has a good chance at winning as well. She has won three straight races, including the grade III Delta Downs Princess Stakes and the Silverbulletday Stakes last time out. The latter came over the local course, so she does have the "home court advantage" over Kathmanblu.
At Sam Houston Race Park, there’s a pair of interesting stakes race for three-year-olds. They are the Jim's Orbit Stakes for colts and geldings and the Two Altazano Stakes for fillies. Both have drawn very fascinating fields.
In the Two Altazano, the morning line favorite is Patty's Pride, who enters the race off of a second place finish, beaten a nose, in the Bara Lass Stakes at this track. It was a very strong performance that should set her up well for tomorrow's race.
Tamtastic is favored in the Jim's Orbit. The colt has finished first or second in six of his seven starts, with his only off-the-board performance being a sixth in the Texas Stallion Stakes after a very rough trip. His most recent race came in the Groovy Stakes at this track, where he was beaten just a half-length by the fine colt Aces N Kings. I expect him to run very well here.
That's all for now! I shall be back on Saturday with my thoughts on the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Thursday, February 17, 2011
PAN ZARETA: THE GREATEST MARE WHO IS NEVER REMEMBERED
On Saturday, February 19th, 2011, eight fillies and mares will parade to the starting gate at Fair Grounds for a chance at winning the $60,000 Pan Zareta Stakes.
It is by no means a major stakes race. It is simply one of the many small stakes races around the country which are very fun to watch but have little to no impact on, say, the Eclipse awards.
Still, it’s nice to see a stakes race commemorating the great mare Pan Zareta.
I’m sure that many horse racing fans have never heard of Pan Zareta. If you are one of them, don’t feel bad. Even I hadn’t heard of her until recently.
A daughter of Abe Frank out of the Rancocas mare Caddie Griffith, Pan Zareta was born in 1910. She was not the kind of mare that you would compare to Zenyatta, Ruffian, or Lady’s Secret on class. In a career that spanned six years, she won just six stakes races. The majority of her victories came in little handicap races with purses often less than a thousand dollars. A sprinter, she won just over half of her total starts, an admirable feat but certainly nothing rare for a good horse.
However, when one realizes that she made 151 starts, winning 76 of them is a jaw-dropping feat. Feast your eyes on these various facts:
• In 1912, as a two-year-old, she made 19 starts while racing from January through December.
• In 1913, she made 33 starts, once again racing from January through December. She made seven starts in the month of August.
• In 1914, she made 28 starts, beginning in January and ending in December.
• In 1915, she made 26 starts from January through October.
• In 1916, she made 11 starts from January to March. Apparently an injury occurred after this, for she did not race again until January 1917.
• In 1917, she recorded her busiest season of all, starting 34 times from January to November.
• She retired with a record of 151 starts, 76 victories, 31 seconds, and 21 thirds. This equates to 128 top three finishes, which means that she failed to hit the board only 23 times!
• On seven occasions she carried 140 pounds or more, winning five of them. In one of her losses, she conceded Sir Edgar 41 actual pounds and was beaten only a neck!
• Only eight of her starts came against other fillies and mares. The other 143 came against males.
• She was favored in 91 of her starts, and was sent off at double-digit odds only five times.
• In one of her more remarkable races, she carried 146 pounds to a neck victory over Seneca, who carried only 100 pounds.
• She ran at 24 different racetracks.
• She defeated Kentucky Derby winner Old Rosebud by six lengths in a 1917 handicap race.
However, perhaps her most astonishing feat came at Juarez racetrack on February 10th, 1915. She was running in a five furlong match race against the speedy colt Joe Blair, to whom she was conceding 10 pounds. At the start, her jockey accidently caused her to blow the break, spotting her rival several lengths from the start. Joe Blair’s jockey took advantage of the situation by gunning his colt to the lead. The colt rattled off unbelievable fractions. He ran his first eight in :10 1/5, and his first quarter in :21 3/5. He continued these blazing fractions by running three-eighths in :33 2/5 and a half-mile in :44 4/5. However, Pan Zareta was inching closer and was only a head behind passing the eighth pole. She then drew off to two length victory while easing up at the finish. The final time was an incredible :57 1/5, a new American record. To quote the February 11th, 1915 edition of the Daily Racing Form, “It was declared by old-timers to be the most wonderful performance it had ever been their privilege to witness and owner-trainer H. S. Newman was overwhelmed with congratulations on all sides.”
Pan Zareta conducted what is without a doubt one of the greatest campaigns in the history of horse racing. Horses like her simply don’t exist anymore. She was a true hickory horse; capable of racing with frequency and success. Although she was best sprinting, she was capable of winning at up to a mile and did so on multiple occasions.
The unbelievable statistics of her career are simply mind boggling. Think of it this way – Pan Zareta starts 151 times. Zenyatta raced 20 times. Pan Zareta won 76 races. Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Ruffian, and Personal Ensign won 55 races between them.
Don’t get me wrong, Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Ruffian, and Personal Ensign were all truly great mares. They did things that Pan Zareta never did, and all achieved greatness through a variety of incredible feats. But they cannot even begin to match the longevity of Pan Zareta’s career; nor do they come anywhere near her number of starts and wins.
I have the suspicion that no horse will ever achieve these remarkable statistics in Thoroughbred horse racing again. To imagine a racehorse today undertaking such an incredible campaign is impossible. The days of horses running thirty or more times in a single year are over.
Sadly, Pan Zareta has been forgotten over the years, probably because the majority of her races came in handicap races. This is unfair, for she is a mare worth remembering. She was phenomenal – no doubt about it. She was one of the greatest mares that ever ran.
-Keelerman
It is by no means a major stakes race. It is simply one of the many small stakes races around the country which are very fun to watch but have little to no impact on, say, the Eclipse awards.
Still, it’s nice to see a stakes race commemorating the great mare Pan Zareta.
I’m sure that many horse racing fans have never heard of Pan Zareta. If you are one of them, don’t feel bad. Even I hadn’t heard of her until recently.
A daughter of Abe Frank out of the Rancocas mare Caddie Griffith, Pan Zareta was born in 1910. She was not the kind of mare that you would compare to Zenyatta, Ruffian, or Lady’s Secret on class. In a career that spanned six years, she won just six stakes races. The majority of her victories came in little handicap races with purses often less than a thousand dollars. A sprinter, she won just over half of her total starts, an admirable feat but certainly nothing rare for a good horse.
However, when one realizes that she made 151 starts, winning 76 of them is a jaw-dropping feat. Feast your eyes on these various facts:
• In 1912, as a two-year-old, she made 19 starts while racing from January through December.
• In 1913, she made 33 starts, once again racing from January through December. She made seven starts in the month of August.
• In 1914, she made 28 starts, beginning in January and ending in December.
• In 1915, she made 26 starts from January through October.
• In 1916, she made 11 starts from January to March. Apparently an injury occurred after this, for she did not race again until January 1917.
• In 1917, she recorded her busiest season of all, starting 34 times from January to November.
• She retired with a record of 151 starts, 76 victories, 31 seconds, and 21 thirds. This equates to 128 top three finishes, which means that she failed to hit the board only 23 times!
• On seven occasions she carried 140 pounds or more, winning five of them. In one of her losses, she conceded Sir Edgar 41 actual pounds and was beaten only a neck!
• Only eight of her starts came against other fillies and mares. The other 143 came against males.
• She was favored in 91 of her starts, and was sent off at double-digit odds only five times.
• In one of her more remarkable races, she carried 146 pounds to a neck victory over Seneca, who carried only 100 pounds.
• She ran at 24 different racetracks.
• She defeated Kentucky Derby winner Old Rosebud by six lengths in a 1917 handicap race.
However, perhaps her most astonishing feat came at Juarez racetrack on February 10th, 1915. She was running in a five furlong match race against the speedy colt Joe Blair, to whom she was conceding 10 pounds. At the start, her jockey accidently caused her to blow the break, spotting her rival several lengths from the start. Joe Blair’s jockey took advantage of the situation by gunning his colt to the lead. The colt rattled off unbelievable fractions. He ran his first eight in :10 1/5, and his first quarter in :21 3/5. He continued these blazing fractions by running three-eighths in :33 2/5 and a half-mile in :44 4/5. However, Pan Zareta was inching closer and was only a head behind passing the eighth pole. She then drew off to two length victory while easing up at the finish. The final time was an incredible :57 1/5, a new American record. To quote the February 11th, 1915 edition of the Daily Racing Form, “It was declared by old-timers to be the most wonderful performance it had ever been their privilege to witness and owner-trainer H. S. Newman was overwhelmed with congratulations on all sides.”
Pan Zareta conducted what is without a doubt one of the greatest campaigns in the history of horse racing. Horses like her simply don’t exist anymore. She was a true hickory horse; capable of racing with frequency and success. Although she was best sprinting, she was capable of winning at up to a mile and did so on multiple occasions.
The unbelievable statistics of her career are simply mind boggling. Think of it this way – Pan Zareta starts 151 times. Zenyatta raced 20 times. Pan Zareta won 76 races. Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Ruffian, and Personal Ensign won 55 races between them.
Don’t get me wrong, Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Ruffian, and Personal Ensign were all truly great mares. They did things that Pan Zareta never did, and all achieved greatness through a variety of incredible feats. But they cannot even begin to match the longevity of Pan Zareta’s career; nor do they come anywhere near her number of starts and wins.
I have the suspicion that no horse will ever achieve these remarkable statistics in Thoroughbred horse racing again. To imagine a racehorse today undertaking such an incredible campaign is impossible. The days of horses running thirty or more times in a single year are over.
Sadly, Pan Zareta has been forgotten over the years, probably because the majority of her races came in handicap races. This is unfair, for she is a mare worth remembering. She was phenomenal – no doubt about it. She was one of the greatest mares that ever ran.
-Keelerman
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 16th, 2011
In the three major stakes races for three-year-olds last weekend, two of them had heavy favorites which fell to defeat. One of them, Tapizar, is now off the Derby trail with a bone chip. Despite these tremendous upsets, the races helped a great deal in clearing the very muddled Triple Crown trail.
Below are brief recaps of all of the best racing action from the last weekend. . .
February 11th
• A nine furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park yielded fascinating results. Bowman’s Causeway, a son of Giant’s Causeway, rallied strongly in the stretch to win by a length and a half. The final time was 1:50.87, not hugely impressive but respectable nonetheless. The colt strikes me as a Belmont Stakes-type horse; a three-year-old who will outstay his rivals in the test of champions to pull off a Summer Bird/Birdstone/Drosselmeyer kind of upset.
• The seventh race at Fair Grounds may potentially impact the Triple Crown Trail. A mile and a sixteenth allowance optional claiming race, the winner was Forbidden Forest by a nose over favored Prime Cut with Bluegrass Jam just a half-length back in third. All three ran excellent races and all three may end up in a stakes race sometime in the future. Keep an eye on them!
• The seventh race at Santa Anita saw Bench Points extend his undefeated streak to four wins. Despite being last of four and three lengths off the lead at the eighth pole, he rallied furiously under jockey Alonso Quinonez to defeat odds-on favorite Da Ruler by 1 1/4 lengths. The final time for the six furlongs was a sharp 1:08.22. I can’t wait to see Bench Points, a two-time stakes winner last year, stretch out to two-turns.
February 12th
• Dynamic Holiday is now the leader of the three-year-old turf fillies division. In January, she won the Tropical Park Oaks at Calder Race Course. At Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, she rallied from five lengths back with five-sixteenths to run before drawing off to win by 1 ¾ lengths. Fancy Point, who was expected to run well in her first start since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, ran last of twelve.
• A seven furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita Park turned out two promising sophomores. Albergatti and Chico d’Oro ran one-two all the way around the track, with the former defeating the latter by 1 ½ lengths in the brilliant time of 1:20.66. It was 8 ½ lengths back to the third place finisher. Both colts merit great respect, although they are obviously a bit behind in preparing for the Kentucky Derby.
• The Sam F. Davis Stakes, one of the three major prep races for the Triple Crown on Feb. 12th, ended up being the only race of the three to be won by the favorite. Odds-on choice Brethren extended his undefeated streak to three wins when he drew off in the stretch to score by four lengths while eased up at the finish. It is apparent that the half-brother to the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver has a lot of talent. On the other hand, very disappointing in the Sam F. Davis Stakes were Monzon and Washington’s Rules, both of whom were expected to run well but ended up fifth and eighth, respectively.
• The Robert B. Lewis Stakes ended with very surprising results. The odds-on favorite at 0.30-1 was Tapizar, impressive winner of the Sham Stakes in January. However, the colt was very rank in the early going and tired in deep stretch to end up fifth, beaten 6 ¼ lengths. But the colt’s dismal performance was explained a couple days later when it was announced that he had a bone chip in his knee which will have to be removed surgically. However, the prognosis is good that he will be able to return to the races sometime in the future. The winner was Anthony’s Cross, who ran a much-improved race with the addition of blinkers. Previously third in the Sham Stakes, he rallied from just off the pace to win by a nose of the hard-knocking Riveting Reason. Both colts look like potential Santa Anita Derby contenders. 68.60-1 shot Quail Hill finished third.
• Comma to the Top showed us on Saturday that he probably doesn’t have the stamina to race at a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. Despite receiving a nearly perfect trip, the colt ran into a brick wall in the stretch. He was just a head from the front at the eighth pole, but tired late to finish 4 ¼ lengths behind the winner. The winner was Silver Medallion, who rallied from off the pace to win by 1 ¼ lengths. He managed to do this despite a rough trip during which he was impeded twice by Comma to the Top. Jakesam, the pacemaker, finished second with Positive Response a strong third.
February 13th
• Free Entry looks like a very promising colt. In a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park, he rallied from just off the pace to win by 1 ¾ lengths in 1:37.62. A 74.30-1 shot, Imperial Czar, rallied strongly to finish second. Favored Rocking out finished third.
In a couple of days, I shall post my thoughts on this coming weekend’s races, where Jaycito, Rogue Romance, Elite Alex, The Factor, J P’s Gusto, and others are expected to highlight the Triple Crown prep races. Until then, enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Below are brief recaps of all of the best racing action from the last weekend. . .
February 11th
• A nine furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park yielded fascinating results. Bowman’s Causeway, a son of Giant’s Causeway, rallied strongly in the stretch to win by a length and a half. The final time was 1:50.87, not hugely impressive but respectable nonetheless. The colt strikes me as a Belmont Stakes-type horse; a three-year-old who will outstay his rivals in the test of champions to pull off a Summer Bird/Birdstone/Drosselmeyer kind of upset.
• The seventh race at Fair Grounds may potentially impact the Triple Crown Trail. A mile and a sixteenth allowance optional claiming race, the winner was Forbidden Forest by a nose over favored Prime Cut with Bluegrass Jam just a half-length back in third. All three ran excellent races and all three may end up in a stakes race sometime in the future. Keep an eye on them!
• The seventh race at Santa Anita saw Bench Points extend his undefeated streak to four wins. Despite being last of four and three lengths off the lead at the eighth pole, he rallied furiously under jockey Alonso Quinonez to defeat odds-on favorite Da Ruler by 1 1/4 lengths. The final time for the six furlongs was a sharp 1:08.22. I can’t wait to see Bench Points, a two-time stakes winner last year, stretch out to two-turns.
February 12th
• Dynamic Holiday is now the leader of the three-year-old turf fillies division. In January, she won the Tropical Park Oaks at Calder Race Course. At Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, she rallied from five lengths back with five-sixteenths to run before drawing off to win by 1 ¾ lengths. Fancy Point, who was expected to run well in her first start since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, ran last of twelve.
• A seven furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita Park turned out two promising sophomores. Albergatti and Chico d’Oro ran one-two all the way around the track, with the former defeating the latter by 1 ½ lengths in the brilliant time of 1:20.66. It was 8 ½ lengths back to the third place finisher. Both colts merit great respect, although they are obviously a bit behind in preparing for the Kentucky Derby.
• The Sam F. Davis Stakes, one of the three major prep races for the Triple Crown on Feb. 12th, ended up being the only race of the three to be won by the favorite. Odds-on choice Brethren extended his undefeated streak to three wins when he drew off in the stretch to score by four lengths while eased up at the finish. It is apparent that the half-brother to the 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver has a lot of talent. On the other hand, very disappointing in the Sam F. Davis Stakes were Monzon and Washington’s Rules, both of whom were expected to run well but ended up fifth and eighth, respectively.
• The Robert B. Lewis Stakes ended with very surprising results. The odds-on favorite at 0.30-1 was Tapizar, impressive winner of the Sham Stakes in January. However, the colt was very rank in the early going and tired in deep stretch to end up fifth, beaten 6 ¼ lengths. But the colt’s dismal performance was explained a couple days later when it was announced that he had a bone chip in his knee which will have to be removed surgically. However, the prognosis is good that he will be able to return to the races sometime in the future. The winner was Anthony’s Cross, who ran a much-improved race with the addition of blinkers. Previously third in the Sham Stakes, he rallied from just off the pace to win by a nose of the hard-knocking Riveting Reason. Both colts look like potential Santa Anita Derby contenders. 68.60-1 shot Quail Hill finished third.
• Comma to the Top showed us on Saturday that he probably doesn’t have the stamina to race at a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May. Despite receiving a nearly perfect trip, the colt ran into a brick wall in the stretch. He was just a head from the front at the eighth pole, but tired late to finish 4 ¼ lengths behind the winner. The winner was Silver Medallion, who rallied from off the pace to win by 1 ¼ lengths. He managed to do this despite a rough trip during which he was impeded twice by Comma to the Top. Jakesam, the pacemaker, finished second with Positive Response a strong third.
February 13th
• Free Entry looks like a very promising colt. In a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park, he rallied from just off the pace to win by 1 ¾ lengths in 1:37.62. A 74.30-1 shot, Imperial Czar, rallied strongly to finish second. Favored Rocking out finished third.
In a couple of days, I shall post my thoughts on this coming weekend’s races, where Jaycito, Rogue Romance, Elite Alex, The Factor, J P’s Gusto, and others are expected to highlight the Triple Crown prep races. Until then, enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Sunday, February 13, 2011
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- February 13th, 2011
1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Returned to the work tab for the first time since the Holy Bull by breezing a half-mile in :48.90. The Fountain of Youth may be his next race.
2. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
I'm not crazy about this colt making his three-year-old debut in a nine furlong race, but I'm sure that Bill Mott knows what he's doing. Breezed a serious five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 on February 6th.
3. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Stepped up his training with a half-mile breeze in :47.45 this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center. This colt is going to be ready for the Tampa Bay Derby.
4. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes was very impressive. The ease at which he drew off in the stretch was breathtaking. Obviously a very talented colt.
5. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
I love the fact that this colt will make his three-year-old debut going seven furlongs in the San Vicente. Many great champions in the past made their three-year-old debuts sprinting, including Secretariat.
6. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I'm very worried that something may be wrong with this colt, for he hasn't worked out since January 30th. The Southwest Stakes next Monday was expected to be his next start, but I'm not so sure that he will make it.
7. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 yesterday at Palm Meadows Training Center. The Risen Star Stakes will be his next start.
8. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 yesterday at Palm Meadows Training Center. The Fountain of Youth Stakes will be his next race. It will be a major class test, for Dialed In, To Honor and Serve, Casper's Touch, and Shackleford are among the possible runners.
9. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
Anthony's Cross, the colt Clubhouse Ride beat by five lengths in the Sham Stakes, came back to win the Robert B. Lewis. Tapizar, the colt who beat Clubhouse Ride by 4 1/4 in the Sham, came back to run fifth in the Robert B. Lewis. Hmm. . .
10. Machen - Trained by Neil Howard
Three-year-old debut will come in the Risen Star Stakes next Saturday. It will be a major class test, but I feel that he is ready.
11. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Expected to make his three-year-old debut in the Risen Star. It will take a strong effort to defeat Machen, but win or lose we shall see very clearly how he has progressed over the winter.
12. Anthony’s Cross – Trained by Eoin Harty
Courageous victory in the Robert B. Lewis shows that the addition of the blinkers was the right move. Fine colt needs to keep improving, however.
13. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Recorded his third workout of the year this morning, breezing a half-mile in :47.45 at Palm Meadows Training Center. He should be primed and ready for his three-year-old debut in March.
14. Casper's Touch - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
This fine colt finished second in a February 5th allowance race at Gulfstream Park, closing well despite being bumped very hard in the homestretch. I feel he would have won if not for that bump.
15. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Upset victory over Comma to the Top in the El Camino Real Derby stamped this colt as a good one. He won the race despite being impeded twice by Comma to the Top.
16. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
Her defeat to Zazu in the Las Virgenes surprised me greatly. However, it appeared that she needed the race and should improve in her next start.
17. Riveting Reason - Trained by Myung Cho
Game second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes proves just how talented he is. If he continues to improve, the Santa Anita Derby should be within his reach.
18. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
It sounds like the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds will be this colt's next race. It looks like a very good spot for him, but he will have to run well to remain on this list.
19. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Romans
Won the allowance race in which Casper's Touch finished second. The Fountain of Youth Stakes in two weeks may be his next race.
20. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
I was extremely disappointed by this colt’s dismal performance in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Not only did he weaken in the final furlong to finish fifth, but he was very, very rank in the early going. He will have to learn to settle if he is to have any chance at winning the Kentucky Derby.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Top Notables:
Adirondack Summer - Has not worked out since his Dania Beach victory. Wondering if something’s wrong.
Alternation - Six furlong breeze in 1:15 1/5 on Feb. 7th makes me wonder if he's ready for the Southwest or not.
Astrology - Easy breezes at Santa Anita show that he is nowhere near his next race.
Awesome Patriot - Five furlong breeze in 1:00 3/5 shows that he's nearly ready for his next race.
Bert B Don - Should relish two turns but hasn't breezed since January 29th.
Bowman's Causeway - Sharp victory in a nine furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream merits respect.
Caleb's Posse - Perhaps the Southwest Stakes is next.
Cal Nation - Broke his maiden first time out at Gulfstream Park on February 5th.
Chasing Moonlight - Wondering where he will run next.
Comma to the Top - Very disappointing in the El Camino Real Derby; may not have cared for the track.
Congo - Promising youngster overcame traffic to win an allowance optional claiming race on February 4th at Aqueduct.
Cool Blue Red Hot - Wondering where he will run next.
Crossbow – Can't wait until he stretches out.
Decisive Moment - Risen Star Stakes is next on the agenda.
Flashpoint - Broke his maiden running six furlongs in 1:09.68 at Aqueduct.
Gourmet Dinner - Delta Jackpot winner just doesn't strike me as a Derby horse.
Indian Winter - San Vicente Stakes should tell us more about him.
J J's Lucky Train - Ran second in the Whirlaway; obviously talented and game.
J P's Gusto - Switched trainers recently and will move to Oaklawn Park.
J W Blue - Fine colt with a potent late kick looks promising.
Kathmanblu - Promising filly was not nominated to the Triple Crown.
Nacho Business - Broke his maiden impressively on Jan. 30th while defeating Bowman's Causeway, who came back to break his maiden two days ago.Positive Response - Ran third in the El Camino Real Derby despite a less than ideal trip.
Premier Pegasus - Breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 this morning.
Queen'splatekitten - Brilliant colt turned in an unbelievable late run in a February 5th allowance race.
Runflatout - May or may not make the San Vicente.
Sway Away - The San Vicente Stakes is expected to be his next start.
Sweet Ducky - Will train up to the Florida Derby.
The Factor - Will likely run in the San Vicente next week.
Toby's Corner - Promising colt won the Whirlaway over a sloppy track.
Travelin Man - Breezed a half-mile in :49 flat this morning.
Wilkinson - LeComte winner should have no trouble with a mile and a quarter.
Secondary Notables:
Bandbox - Has been breezing at Laurel Park.
Beamer - Failed to impressive in the Sam F. Davis.
Black N Beauty - May prefer seven furlongs.
Buffum - Finished fifth in UAE 2,000 Guineas.
Commander - Not sure what to think of him.
Dance City - Promising maiden winner deserves respect.
Determinato - Spectacular Bid winner may run in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Gold Raptor - Hasn't breezed since January 5th, but has run twice since then.
Grant Jack - Hasn't breezed in nearly two weeks.
Justin Phillip - Gets another chance in the Risen Star.
Major Gain - No workouts since the Holy Bull.
Manicero - Still worried about this one’s pedigree.
Monzon - Very disappointing in the Sam F. Davis.
R Heat Lightning - Disappointing in the Forward Gal.
Striding Ahead - Broke his maiden impressively at Tampa Bay Downs on February 5th.
Uncle Sam - Has not breezed since the Sham Stakes.
Wine Police - Will likely return in an allowance race at Fair Grounds.
-Keelerman
Returned to the work tab for the first time since the Holy Bull by breezing a half-mile in :48.90. The Fountain of Youth may be his next race.
2. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
I'm not crazy about this colt making his three-year-old debut in a nine furlong race, but I'm sure that Bill Mott knows what he's doing. Breezed a serious five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 on February 6th.
3. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Stepped up his training with a half-mile breeze in :47.45 this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center. This colt is going to be ready for the Tampa Bay Derby.
4. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Victory in the Sam F. Davis Stakes was very impressive. The ease at which he drew off in the stretch was breathtaking. Obviously a very talented colt.
5. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
I love the fact that this colt will make his three-year-old debut going seven furlongs in the San Vicente. Many great champions in the past made their three-year-old debuts sprinting, including Secretariat.
6. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I'm very worried that something may be wrong with this colt, for he hasn't worked out since January 30th. The Southwest Stakes next Monday was expected to be his next start, but I'm not so sure that he will make it.
7. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 yesterday at Palm Meadows Training Center. The Risen Star Stakes will be his next start.
8. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 yesterday at Palm Meadows Training Center. The Fountain of Youth Stakes will be his next race. It will be a major class test, for Dialed In, To Honor and Serve, Casper's Touch, and Shackleford are among the possible runners.
9. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
Anthony's Cross, the colt Clubhouse Ride beat by five lengths in the Sham Stakes, came back to win the Robert B. Lewis. Tapizar, the colt who beat Clubhouse Ride by 4 1/4 in the Sham, came back to run fifth in the Robert B. Lewis. Hmm. . .
10. Machen - Trained by Neil Howard
Three-year-old debut will come in the Risen Star Stakes next Saturday. It will be a major class test, but I feel that he is ready.
11. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Expected to make his three-year-old debut in the Risen Star. It will take a strong effort to defeat Machen, but win or lose we shall see very clearly how he has progressed over the winter.
12. Anthony’s Cross – Trained by Eoin Harty
Courageous victory in the Robert B. Lewis shows that the addition of the blinkers was the right move. Fine colt needs to keep improving, however.
13. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Recorded his third workout of the year this morning, breezing a half-mile in :47.45 at Palm Meadows Training Center. He should be primed and ready for his three-year-old debut in March.
14. Casper's Touch - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
This fine colt finished second in a February 5th allowance race at Gulfstream Park, closing well despite being bumped very hard in the homestretch. I feel he would have won if not for that bump.
15. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Upset victory over Comma to the Top in the El Camino Real Derby stamped this colt as a good one. He won the race despite being impeded twice by Comma to the Top.
16. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
Her defeat to Zazu in the Las Virgenes surprised me greatly. However, it appeared that she needed the race and should improve in her next start.
17. Riveting Reason - Trained by Myung Cho
Game second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes proves just how talented he is. If he continues to improve, the Santa Anita Derby should be within his reach.
18. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
It sounds like the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds will be this colt's next race. It looks like a very good spot for him, but he will have to run well to remain on this list.
19. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Romans
Won the allowance race in which Casper's Touch finished second. The Fountain of Youth Stakes in two weeks may be his next race.
20. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
I was extremely disappointed by this colt’s dismal performance in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Not only did he weaken in the final furlong to finish fifth, but he was very, very rank in the early going. He will have to learn to settle if he is to have any chance at winning the Kentucky Derby.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Top Notables:
Adirondack Summer - Has not worked out since his Dania Beach victory. Wondering if something’s wrong.
Alternation - Six furlong breeze in 1:15 1/5 on Feb. 7th makes me wonder if he's ready for the Southwest or not.
Astrology - Easy breezes at Santa Anita show that he is nowhere near his next race.
Awesome Patriot - Five furlong breeze in 1:00 3/5 shows that he's nearly ready for his next race.
Bert B Don - Should relish two turns but hasn't breezed since January 29th.
Bowman's Causeway - Sharp victory in a nine furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream merits respect.
Caleb's Posse - Perhaps the Southwest Stakes is next.
Cal Nation - Broke his maiden first time out at Gulfstream Park on February 5th.
Chasing Moonlight - Wondering where he will run next.
Comma to the Top - Very disappointing in the El Camino Real Derby; may not have cared for the track.
Congo - Promising youngster overcame traffic to win an allowance optional claiming race on February 4th at Aqueduct.
Cool Blue Red Hot - Wondering where he will run next.
Crossbow – Can't wait until he stretches out.
Decisive Moment - Risen Star Stakes is next on the agenda.
Flashpoint - Broke his maiden running six furlongs in 1:09.68 at Aqueduct.
Gourmet Dinner - Delta Jackpot winner just doesn't strike me as a Derby horse.
Indian Winter - San Vicente Stakes should tell us more about him.
J J's Lucky Train - Ran second in the Whirlaway; obviously talented and game.
J P's Gusto - Switched trainers recently and will move to Oaklawn Park.
J W Blue - Fine colt with a potent late kick looks promising.
Kathmanblu - Promising filly was not nominated to the Triple Crown.
Nacho Business - Broke his maiden impressively on Jan. 30th while defeating Bowman's Causeway, who came back to break his maiden two days ago.Positive Response - Ran third in the El Camino Real Derby despite a less than ideal trip.
Premier Pegasus - Breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 this morning.
Queen'splatekitten - Brilliant colt turned in an unbelievable late run in a February 5th allowance race.
Runflatout - May or may not make the San Vicente.
Sway Away - The San Vicente Stakes is expected to be his next start.
Sweet Ducky - Will train up to the Florida Derby.
The Factor - Will likely run in the San Vicente next week.
Toby's Corner - Promising colt won the Whirlaway over a sloppy track.
Travelin Man - Breezed a half-mile in :49 flat this morning.
Wilkinson - LeComte winner should have no trouble with a mile and a quarter.
Secondary Notables:
Bandbox - Has been breezing at Laurel Park.
Beamer - Failed to impressive in the Sam F. Davis.
Black N Beauty - May prefer seven furlongs.
Buffum - Finished fifth in UAE 2,000 Guineas.
Commander - Not sure what to think of him.
Dance City - Promising maiden winner deserves respect.
Determinato - Spectacular Bid winner may run in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Gold Raptor - Hasn't breezed since January 5th, but has run twice since then.
Grant Jack - Hasn't breezed in nearly two weeks.
Justin Phillip - Gets another chance in the Risen Star.
Major Gain - No workouts since the Holy Bull.
Manicero - Still worried about this one’s pedigree.
Monzon - Very disappointing in the Sam F. Davis.
R Heat Lightning - Disappointing in the Forward Gal.
Striding Ahead - Broke his maiden impressively at Tampa Bay Downs on February 5th.
Uncle Sam - Has not breezed since the Sham Stakes.
Wine Police - Will likely return in an allowance race at Fair Grounds.
-Keelerman
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