TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 11th, 2011

Note: Once again, the following is not my typical style of “Triple Crown Countdown”. This week, I intend to cover all of the great racing action as usual, but in a slightly different style. If you like it, or would prefer that I switch back to my old style, please leave a comment and tell me!

This week, there are incredible stakes races for three-year-olds all over the country. Here is a small sampling of what we will be handicapping today. . .

El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)
Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)

Brethren, Tapizar, and Comma to the Top are among the promising colts that will be running in these races. Choosing this week’s feature race wasn’t easy, but I finally settled on the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

FEATURE RACE – Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)
Nine Furlongs/Santa Anita Park/$250,000 purse/February 12th

The Robert B. Lewis Stakes always turns out a Santa Anita Derby contender or two. Last year, Caracortado won this race over a quality field that included Dave in Dixie and American Lion. This year’s field looks even more promising.

Here are the eight entries. . .

#1 Wegner
#2 Anthony’s Cross
#3 Comma to the Top
#4 Tapizar
#5 Ten Devils
#6 Riveting Reason
#7 Quail Hill
#8 Thirtyfirststreet

Before I begin my handicapping, I must mention that Comma to the Top likely won’t run. It is much more probable that he will instead run in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields also on February 12th.

Here are my thoughts on each runner. . .

#1 Wegner (Dynaformer – Fabulous, by Seeking the Gold)
Trained by Bob Baffert, Wegner broke his maiden last time out going a mile over the Santa Anita main track in a maiden special weight race. In his previous three starts he had run fourth, second, and ninth. Granted, he has been running against some decent company, but this is a big step up in class. He will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, and the Baffert/Bejarano trainer-jockey combination has been very hot lately. However, this colt just hasn’t shown the talent to win this race.

#2 Anthony’s Cross (Indian Charlie – Screening, by Unbridled)
Like Comma to the Top, this colt is also entered in the El Camino Real Derby, but as far as I know this it is more likely that Anthony’s Cross will run here. Trained by Eoin Harty, he broke his maiden fourth time out in a 1 1/16 mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. However, the colts he was running against in his first three starts included To Honor and Serve and Astrology. Following his maiden victory he was tried in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) against Tapizar but finished a distant third. Although top rider Joel Rosario will be riding Anthony’s Cross, I don’t believe this colt is going to do much better on Feb 12th than he did in the Sham. On the other hand, he enters this race off of two bullet five-furlong works, and will be wearing blinkers on. Second or third should be within his abilities.

#3 Comma to the Top (Bwana Charlie – Maggies Storm, by Stormy Atlantic)
As I mentioned above, it is very unlikely that this colt will run here. However, if he does, I would pick him to win. This heavily raced colt, trained by Peter Miller, is riding a five-race winning streak that culminated at the end of 2010 with a dramatic victory in the $750,000 CashCall Futurity (gr. I) He has shown quite a bit of early foot and the ability to carry his speed a long way. Although his pedigree doesn’t scream classic distances, this colt may be better on dirt and is a serious contender where ever he races. Corey Nakatani will ride him no matter which race he runs in. On February 6th, he worked a sharp five furlongs in :59 2/5 at Hollywood Park, this coming on the heels of seven furlongs in 1:24 3/5 on January 31st. He’s ready to roll.

#4 Tapizar (Tapit – Winning Call, by Deputy Minister)
It seems as though nearly every colt in this race had trouble breaking their maiden. Like Wegner and Anthony’s Cross, it took Tapizar four tries to break his maiden. But the Steve Asmussen-trainee has been getting better with every race and will be the deserving favorite here tomorrow. His Sham Stakes victory in January was overwhelmingly dominating. Despite running three-quarters of a mile in a scorching 1:08 4/5, the bay colt drew off with power in the stretch, hitting the wire in 1:40 1/5 for the mile and a sixteenth. Remarkably, that time was faster than older males ran in the San Fernando Stakes (gr. II) later that afternoon. I have the suspicion that Tapizar will run even better tomorrow. He can even regress a bit off of that effort and still win here. Garrett Gomez has the mount.

#5 Ten Devils (Rock Hard Ten – Gilded Diablo, by Diablo)
The entry of this colt came as a bit of a surprise, although he certainly has promising credentials. Trained by Richard Mandella, the colt has made three starts thus far, all on turf. He won his debut going five furlongs by slightly more than two lengths before running second to Silver Medallion in the one-mile Eddie Logan Stakes. This was followed by another second in an allowance optional claiming race, also at one-mile. This will be his first start on the main track. His most recent workout, a half-mile in :51 2/5, does not inspire confidence that he is ready to run tomorrow. On the other hand, if he runs as well on dirt as he does on turf he could secure a sizeable piece of the purse by running second or third. Joe Talamo will ride.

#6 Riveting Reason (Fusaichi Pegasus – Love and Marry, by Known Fact)
The career of Riveting Reason has not followed the usual rules for campaigning a racehorse. After running third and second in his first two starts, he was entered in the grade I Del Mar Futurity, where he somewhat amazingly ran third. He then ran third in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I), beaten just 2 ½ lengths by Jaycito. Still a maiden at this point, he was entered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he set the pace before fading to finish eighth. Given a chance against maidens just nineteen days later, he won going a mile and a sixteenth. This performance apparently warranted another start in a grade I event, for Riveting Reason ran next in the CashCall Futurity, in which he ran a decent fifth. Finally, his most recent race came in a one-mile allowance race where he finished a close second to the highly regarded Awesome Patriot. This unorthodox campaign appears doesn’t seem to have done anything to inhibit his talent, for Riveting Reason just keeps on running his usual race no matter what the circumstances. It is this versatility which should enable him to finish on the board tomorrow. Trained by Myung Cho, he will be ridden by Victor Espinoza.

#7 Quail Hill (Candy Ride – Midwife, by Family Calling)
In four starts, Quail Hill has run on three different surfaces --- Cushion Track, dirt, and turf. In four starts he has raced in nothing but maiden special weight races, finishing ninth, seventh, third, and finally winning last time out. The David Hofmans-trainee has shown early turn of foot, but not nearly the kind of speed that will be required to defeat Tapizar. His lone start on dirt yielded a third-place finish going a mile and Santa Anita, which also does not bode well for his chances here. Martin Pedroza will ride.

#8 Thirtyfirststreet (Good Journey – Avian, by Sky Classic)
Of the eight horses in this race, only three have previously proven victorious in stakes company – Comma to the Top, Tapizar, and Thirtyfirststreet. Trained by Doug O’Neill, Thirtyfirststreet finished second in his first start before becoming a winner in his second start going 6-1/2 furlong over Hollywood Park’s Cushion Track. Sent off at 5.90-1 in the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes, he rallied from well off the pace under Rafael Bejarano to defeat heavy favorite Arresting Officer by a half-length. If he runs his best race tomorrow, Thirtyfirststreet should be a serious contender while being ridden for the first time by Patrick Valenzuela. A sharp five furlong workout in 1:00 1/5 on February 6th signals that he is ready to run.

Those are the entries. I have handicapped this race assuming that Comma to the Top will not be running, and likewise my selections below include only seven runners.

The way I see it, there is quite a bit of early speed in this race. Wegner, Tapizar, Riveting Reason, and Quail Hill have all shown early speed in the past. However, Tapizar’s early foot towers over everyone else’s, as does his raw talent. I can’t see Tapizar losing here.

However, the amount of early speed in this race leaves the door open for a closer to rally in the stretch for second. I feel that Thirtyfirststreet is ready to run a sharp race and should be closing well late, although too late to threaten for the win.

Hence, my selections. . .

1 Tapizar
2 Thirtyfirststreet
3 Riveting Reason
4 Anthony’s Cross
5 Ten Devils
6 Wegner
7 Quail Hill

Tapizar should establish himself as the favorite for the Santa Anita Derby in April with an impressive victory tomorrow. I went back and forth between the rest of the horses, but I feel pretty confident in this order.

OTHER RACES TO WATCH

The El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) should be a great race to watch. A nine furlong event at Golden Gate Fields, the 6-5 morning line favorite is Comma to the Top. Everything I said about him above goes the same here. He will probably be more like even-money or 4-5 at post time, even though he will be facing some decent competition.

Silver Medallion is, somewhat surprisingly, the second choice at 5-2. The colt is coming off of a career-best performance in the Eddie Logan Stakes, which he won by a half-length over Ten Devils. Silver Medallion’s lone start on a synthetic track came in the grade I Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, in which he ran seventh. I can’t imagine that he will upset Comma to the Top tomorrow.
The third choice is Positive Response, who won the California Derby last time out in a sharp performance that left me with the impression that he is a potential star. He has run very well over Golden Gate’s Tapeta main track before but will have to catch Comma to the Top.

Jakesam and Bluegrass Reward, second and third respectively in the California Derby, are back to try again. The longshot at 30-1 is Formula Gold, a colt who has one but once from five starts in maiden special weight company.

In the Sam F Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, one colt stands above all the others – Brethren. A half-brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, Brethren is undefeated in two starts. In his debut, he scorched six furlongs at Belmont Park in 1:08 4/5. He then defeated a solid field of runners in an allowance race at Churchill Downs, leaving El Grayling and Justin Philip in his dust. Is it possible that the same mare could produce back-to-back Kentucky Derby winners? If Brethren wins tomorrow, it’s very possible.

His main opposition will likely come from Monzon and Washington’s Rules. The former rallied from far back to win the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct in January and should be running late again here. The latter broke his maiden with a huge late rally last time out and has been working sharply for this race.

Beamer could provide some of the pace. He most recently finished second in a nine furlong allowance race to the highly regarded Soldat and should be ready to run his best race tomorrow.

In the Florida Oaks, a mile and a sixteenth turf race for three-year-old fillies, a field of twelve has turned out. The morning line favorite is Fancy Point, winner of the P. G. Johnson Stakes last fall at Saratoga. In her most recent start, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, she ran tenth of fourteenth.

Dynamic Holiday is the second choice. She has been in good form recently, winning the Tropical Park Oaks by a nose last time out. If Fancy Point proves to be the least bit rusty tomorrow, Dynamic Holiday should be able to take advantage of the situation and win.

The third race at Santa Anita on Saturday also merits attention. A seven furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds, Albergatti is the 4-5 favorite. The colt finished second in his only start thus far, narrowly losing a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight to Da Ruler. I fully expect him to win with ease tomorrow.

Finally, there is the third race at Gulfstream Park on Sunday. A one-mile allowance race, Rocking Out is the favorite. The colt won his only start thus far, a six furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct, by 4 ¼ lengths in 1:10.75. Behind him that day was Crossbow, who has since won two races in sharp fashion. Cane Garden Bay may prove to be his toughest opponent, seeing that he most recently finished a rapidly closing third in the six furlong Spectacular Bid Stakes last month.

I will be posting live updates tomorrow as these races and others are run. Enjoy!

-Keelerman