Three more graded stakes races for three-year-old colts are on this week's schedule -- the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds, the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) and the Southwest Stakes (gr. III). Among the sophomores gearing up for the Triple Crown in these races are Rogue Romance, Santiva, Decisive Moment, The Factor, Mucho Macho Man, Machen, J P's Gusto, Elite Alex, and Premier Pegasus. It doesn't get much better than this!
I went back and forth trying to decide between this weekend's feature race. I couldn't decide between the big three prep races. Finally, I made my decision -- I shall focus on all three!
Because the trio of races are spread of three days (The Risen Star is on Saturday; the San Vicente on Sunday; the Southwest on Monday) I have decided to do three "Triple Crown Countdown" posts over the next three days, focusing on one race at a time. Today's feature race shall therefore be the one that is soonest, the Risen Star Stakes. Enjoy!
FEATURE RACE ---- The Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the Fair Grounds main track. $300,000 purse.
The Risen Star Stakes has drawn a field of ten horses, of which six have morning line odds of 6-1 or less. It is a very evenly matched race and I am positive that one or two serious Kentucky Derby contenders will emerge from this race.
The field consists of. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds/ Weight
1 Rogue Romance 3-1 126
2 Liondrive 50-1 116
3 Decisive Moment 9-2 120
4 Pants On Fire 6-1 116
5 Mucho Macho Man 4-1 116
6 Machen 6-1 116
7 Santiva 6-1 122
8 Action Ready 12-1 116
9 Justin Philip 8-1 116
10 Sorgho 30-1 116
It's hard not to like morning line favorite Rogue Romance. The colt proved quite skilled on turf as a juvenile, winning the grade III Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland with a brilliant last-to-first move. However, the colt proved just as good—if not better—on dirt, running third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind Eclipse champion Uncle Mo and grade I stakes winner Boys at Tosconova. The Risen Star will mark his first start since the Breeders' Cup, as the colt was given a lengthy break after his fine performance. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, the chestnut son of Smarty Jones has been training well for this race, with a sharp five furlong breeze in 1:00 flat on February 5th signaling his readiness. To be ridden by Julien Leparoux, the late-running colt should relish Fair Ground’s long homestretch.
Liondrive will be breaking from gate two. The longest shot on the morning line, he comes into the Risen Star off of a last place finish in an allowance race, where he finished 54 ½ lengths behind the winner. This performance does not inspire confidence in his chances tomorrow; nor do his previous eight starts. His three stakes tries to date have resulted in a pair of fifths and an eighth. Trained by Tim Ice, Liondrive would have to run considerably better tomorrow than he has ever run in his life if he is to hit the board. C. Sutherland will ride.
Decisive Moment, the third choice on the morning line, has shown great consistency in a career which has spanned six starts. Only his odds have been inconsistent – he has been sent off at anything from 1.20-1 to 48.20-1. He has yet to run worse than fourth. He broke his maiden by a head first time out at Calder Race Course; then ran fourth in the Dr. Fager Stakes at that same track. A third-place finish in a Calder allowance race was followed by a third in the In Reality Stakes, also at Calder. His first start at a track other than Calder resulted in his sharpest performance to that point, as the colt ran a bang-up second to Gourmet Dinner in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes. His most recent start came in the Jean Lafitte Stakes, where he won by an easy 3 ½ lengths in front-running fashion. He will likely set the pace tomorrow and has an excellent chance at hanging on to win. Trained by Juan Arias, he will be ridden by K. Clark.
Pants On Fire is a fine colt, but I can’t see him winning here. A front runner, he most recently finished a game second to Wilkinson in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III), beaten just a head. However, the colt was unable to hold off the winner despite setting a very slow pace (a half-mile in :48 4/5; three-quarters in 1:13 3/5). A slightly faster pace in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct resulted in being beat by more, as he finished third, beaten 4 ½ lengths after setting fractions of :47 2/5 and 1:12 1/5. Trained by Kelly Breen, I’m certain that Pants On Fire will win a stakes race someday, but under these conditions I can’t see him winning here. J. Bravo has the mount.
This brings us to Mucho Macho Man, beaten favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out. The son of Macho Uno finished second twice behind To Honor and Serve in both Nashua and Remsen Stakes (both grade II). His performance in the Remsen was admirable, as he chased the pace set by To Honor and Serve, dropped to four lengths behind him passing the eighth pole, and then closed again to be beaten only two lengths. His performance in the Holy Bull actually wasn’t that bad, as he was bumped hard early in the race but recovered to press a fast pace while very wide. Despite all this, he held on well until deep stretch, finishing fourth in the end. A better trip tomorrow may be all he needs to win. Trained by Kathy Ritvo, he will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh. He will also be racing without his usual blinkers tomorrow.
Machen drew gate six. An undefeated son of Distorted Humor, the colt broke his maiden by 5 ½ lengths going six furlongs over this track. He then won an allowance optional claiming race on January 30th in a performance which awed many who saw it. Despite being rank in the early going and trapped behind horses with nowhere to go in the stretch, the colt split horses like a professional and drew off to win by five lengths. He barely did any running at all, perhaps only really driving for an eighth of a mile. I believe that an equally astonishing performance will be seen from this colt tomorrow. Trained by Neil Howard, the colt will be ridden by J. Theriot.
Santiva is perhaps one of the more intriguing horses in this race. A son of Giant’s Causeway, he finished third in his first start, a maiden special weight. He then finished second again in a maiden special weight. Then he was moved from the barn of Kenneth McPeek to the barn of Todd Pletcher. His third start came in the grade I Breeders’ Futurity, where he ran second. He was then transferred to the barn of Eddie Kenneally. Entered next in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), the colt gamely held off challenges from both sides to win by a half-length, officially leaving the maiden ranks. However, the colt has never earned a very high speed figure and will have to show some improvement to win here tomorrow. He will be ridden by Mike Smith, who will become the fourth different jockey to pilot this fine sophomore.
Action Ready is the next colt. He has never run a really bad race, but has yet to run a really good race either. The son of More Than Ready most recently finished third in the LeComte Stakes, beaten five lengths by Wilkinson and Pants On Fire. To be ridden by Rosie Napravnik, he would have to show a great deal of improvement to threaten tomorrow. He is trained by Bret Calhoun.
Then there is Justin Philip, a son of First Samurai. The promising youngster had never finished worse than third going into the LeComte Stakes. Sent off as the favorite there while wearing blinkers for the first time, the colt was rank and tired to finish last, beaten 14 ½ lengths. The colt is notorious for breaking poorly, so that is one more thing that this colt must overcome to win tomorrow. He will be racing without blinkers tomorrow. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan.
Finally, we come to Sorgho. The colt broke his maiden last time out at Sam Houston, winning a maiden special weight by two lengths. It was the son of Storm Cat’s third race; he had previously finished third and ninth in a pair of similar events. However, the colt does not seem to be fast enough to compete against these colts. Trained by William Bennett, E. Martin has the mount.
Choosing between these fine colts is difficult, but here are my selections. . .
1 Machen
2 Decisive Moment
3 Rogue Romance
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Santiva
6 Justin Philip
7 Action Ready
8 Pants On Fire
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
In my opinion, there is virtually no separation between my top five picks. Any one of them is capable of stepping up and winning. I went with Machen because I was extremely impressed by his last race and feel he has a lot of talent to give. I nearly picked Decisive Moment off of his excellent last two starts, but I have a feeling that he may get caught in a bit of a speed duel early. Rogue Romance should run quite well, but he may not be at his very best having not raced since early November.
Of course, I'm sure that many of you are eagerly anticipating J.R.'s picks. As this is the second week of the handicapping contest, he has thoroughly handicapped these races in an attempt to outpick me. For more details, please read J.R.'s Top Ten and the Handicapping Contest. (link)
Here are his picks. . .
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Justin Philip
3 Rogue Romance
4 Decisive Moment
5 Pants On Fire
6 Santiva
7 Machen
8 Action Ready
9 Sorgho
10 Liondrive
He feels that Mucho Macho Man will rebound nicely off of his loss in the Holy Bull Stakes. He feels that this race is a drop in class and the removal of blinkers will help the colt relax early on. We'll see who wins!
OTHER RACES OF NOTE
There is an incredible set of stakes races on the undercard of the Risen Star Stakes. One of the most fascinating is the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) for three-year-old fillies.
For the mile and a sixteenth event, Kathmanblu is the 6-5 morning line favorite. The filly has won three stakes races on both turf and dirt, including the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) by 8 1/2 lengths. She is one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks in May and I expect her to win this race rather easily.
However, Bouquet Booth has a good chance at winning as well. She has won three straight races, including the grade III Delta Downs Princess Stakes and the Silverbulletday Stakes last time out. The latter came over the local course, so she does have the "home court advantage" over Kathmanblu.
At Sam Houston Race Park, there’s a pair of interesting stakes race for three-year-olds. They are the Jim's Orbit Stakes for colts and geldings and the Two Altazano Stakes for fillies. Both have drawn very fascinating fields.
In the Two Altazano, the morning line favorite is Patty's Pride, who enters the race off of a second place finish, beaten a nose, in the Bara Lass Stakes at this track. It was a very strong performance that should set her up well for tomorrow's race.
Tamtastic is favored in the Jim's Orbit. The colt has finished first or second in six of his seven starts, with his only off-the-board performance being a sixth in the Texas Stallion Stakes after a very rough trip. His most recent race came in the Groovy Stakes at this track, where he was beaten just a half-length by the fine colt Aces N Kings. I expect him to run very well here.
That's all for now! I shall be back on Saturday with my thoughts on the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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