As long time readers of my blog know, I have a friend whose name is J.R. An avid handicapper, J.R. loves the Triple Crown. He loves pouring over pedigrees and searching through the entries for three-year-olds that haven’t made a name for themselves yet. I asked him today to compile a top ten list of the three-year-olds that he likes and he agreed wholeheartedly. Although I was a bit surprised by who he included, one must remember that J.R. picked Spangled Star to win the 2010 Belmont Stakes. . . :-)
Here it is:
1. Jaycito – Trained by Bob Baffert
His pedigree will carry him a mile and a quarter without a doubt.
2. Kathmanblu – Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Brilliant filly deserves more respect than she gets. 2011 Derby winner? I wouldn't be surprised.
3. Elite Alex – Trained by Timothy Ritchey
Game, talented, agile -- any of these objectives could describe this colt. If Borel is on him in the Derby, watch out.
4. Brethren – Trained by Todd Pletcher
Gets a serious class test this afternoon. Should pass with flying colors.
5. Rogue Romance – Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Ran a very good race in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Expect him to dominate in the Risen Star.
6. Uncle Mo – Trained by Todd Pletcher
Two-year-old champion is going to have trouble winning a top-class race at mile and a quarter. The Derby will expose his weaknesses.
7. Casper's Touch – Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Nightmare trip in a recent allowance race cost him the win. I expect him to rebound with a stunning victory in the Fountain of Youth.
8. Dialed In – Trained by Nick Zito
Had everything go his way in the Holy Bull. Will be exposed in the Fountain of Youth.
9. Tapizar – Trained by Steven Asmussen
Speedy colt has shown great talent but needs to learn how to rate. If he wins the Robert B. Lewis today he will move up.
10. J W Blue – Trained by Anthony Dutrow
Little-known colt dominated a recent Oaklawn allowance race with a tremendous late run. His next start should tell us more.
Interestingly, J.R. has left To Honor and Serve out of his top ten. He feels that the colt just isn't as talented as many believe. Also, he believes that coming back at a mile and an eighth in the Fountain of Youth is not a good idea.
Anyway, upon completing this list, J.R. announced that his list is better than mine. He feels that his picks have a much better chance at winning the Kentucky Derby than mine do. I countered this bold statement by challenging J.R. to a handicapping contest.
During the next several months, J.R. and I shall both post our picks for key prep races on this blog. We shall score the contest as follows:
If our pick wins a race, we receive ten points.
If our pick runs second in a race, we receive five points.
If our pick runs third in a race, we receive three points.
If our pick runs fourth in a race, we receive one point.
If our pick runs worse than fourth, we don’t receive any points.
It’s a simple head-to-head your-horse-against-my-horse type contest. If my pick beats J.R.’s in any given race, then I win more points and vice versa. We shall handicap from now until the conclusion of the Belmont Stakes, that race being the final contest race. Whoever has scored the most points by the end of the contest wins! I shall update our scores every week on a separate page entitled “The Triple Crown Handicapping Contest”. You follow our progress and see who the leader is by clicking on the link directly below my blog search box at the top of my blog.
So without further ado, here are our picks for the first three races of the contest:
KEELERMAN
Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) – Brethren
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) – Tapizar
El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) – Comma to the Top
J.R.
Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) – Brethren
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) – Tapizar
El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) – Positive Response
The contest is on! If you would like to join in on the fun, leave a comment below listing your picks. I shall tally your scores as well.
-Keelerman (and J.R.)
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