Today is the day of the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park. A seven furlong event for three-year-old colts, nine horses have entered. However, it is highly possible that only one colt will matter in the end: The Factor.
FEATURE RACE ---- San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)
Santa Anita, 7 furlongs, $150,000 purse
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Surrey Star 8-1 118
2 Metropolitan Man 12-1 118
3 Sway Away 4-1 118
4 Sinai 8-1 118
5 Indian Winter 9-2 118
6 City Cool 8-1 118
7 The Factor 8-5 118
8 Premier Pegasus 8-1 120
9 Oakcrest Drive 15-1 118
No matter who you pick to win this race, I can guarantee that your eyes will be on The Factor. The brilliant son of War Front broke his maiden on December 6th, 2010 at Santa Anita.
He started well and raced away to take the lead.
He never looked back.
He won eased up.
He won in 1:06.98.
Track record time.
Despite running his first quarter mile that day in :21.62, he still managed to come home in :11.56. That is the performance of a potential superstar. The colt is trained by Bob Baffert, and will be ridden by Martin Garcia. This colt is so good that he can bounce off of his maiden victory; run a less than stellar race by his own standards and still win. However, it’s worth noting that this colt suffered from a foot bruise a few weeks ago and has only recorded two workouts for this race. It shouldn’t stop him from winning, but it is worth noting.
A variety of fine colts have turned out to try and defeat The Factor, but none of them appear good enough on paper to pull the upset. The second choice is Sway Away, a son of Afleet Alex who has not raced since finishing second to J P’s Gusto in the Best Pal Stakes over Del Mar’s synthetic surface. However, he broke his maiden on dirt in his first start, so he does have some experience over the surface. He has been working sharply for this race, with his most recent workout being six furlongs in 1:11 4/5 at Santa Anita. Trained by Jeff Bonde, Garrett Gomez will ride. He may have the best chance at upsetting The Factor.
Another interesting colt is Indian Winter. The son of Indian Charlie won the San Pedro Stakes by a half-length on January 11th, signaling his affinity for the surface. If the pace is hot today, expect him to be rallying fast at the finish. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the colt had previously finished third in the grade I Del Mar Futurity. Martin Pedroza has the mount.
Sinai is eligible to step up and run a good race here. The colt broke his maiden impressively on December 18th at Hollywood Park. However, a rough trip in the San Pedro Stakes saw him finish third, beaten 1 ¾ lengths by Indian Winter. A cleaner trip could enable him to run better today. Trained by Bob Baffert, the colt will be racing without blinkers today and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.
Premier Pegasus is a bit of a longshot at 8-1 on the morning line, despite the fact that he is an undefeated multiple stakes winner. Trained by Myung Cho, the son of Fusaichi Pegasus colt broke his maiden in July at Del Mar. He did not return to the races until October 23rd, when he won the Jack Goodman Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion during the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park. He then won the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) at Hollywood Park in similar fashion, winning the race by 1 ½ lengths over Industry Leader. However, Premier Pegasus will be making his first start on dirt today, and although he will probably love it, one must wonder. I have the suspicion that he isn’t quite quick enough to get to the lead today. A. Quinonez will ride.
One colt who has shown the speed to get to the lead here is City Cool. The blazingly-fast son of City Zip most recently finished second in the San Pedro Stakes, beaten just a half-length by Indian Winter. He accomplished this despite setting fractions of :21.22 and :43.69. Trained by Steve Asmussen, I can’t see this colt holding on going seven furlongs unless he sets a much more moderate pace. This is easier said than done with The Factor, Premier Pegasus, and Metropolitan Man in the race. He will be ridden by Joe Talamo.
Speaking of Metropolitan Man, he is one of the more intriguing runners in this race. Trained by Vladimir Cerin, the gelding broke his maiden on April 22, 2010 at Keeneland going 4-1/2 furlongs. A trip to England to run in the June 15th Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot yielded disappointing results, as the colt finished ninth of fourteen. He did not return to the races until January 13th, 2011, when he finished second in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race on the downhill turf at Santa Anita Park. The son of Hook and Ladder will have to prove himself on dirt today, and run farther than he has ever run before. I can’t see him winning under these conditions. He will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela.
Surry Star is also a very interesting colt. He made his first eight starts as a juvenile in England, winning only one race but placing in a pair of group III stakes races. Shipped to United States for his final start of 2010, he ran a fairly strong third in the grade III Generous Stakes behind Comma to the Top. If he can transfer his turf form to the main track, he could rally late to hit the board. Trained by James Cassidy, the son of Dubawi will be ridden by Mike Smith.
Finally, we come to Oakcrest Drive. A son of Arch, the gelding broke his maiden second time out going 6-1/2 furlongs on the main track Hollywood Park. Tried on turf in the Eddie Logan Stakes, a less than ideal trip caused the colt to end up fifth, beaten 5 ½ lengths by Silver Medallion. Trained by James Cassidy, the colt would really have to step up today to hit the board. Victor Espinoza has the mount.
Here are my picks. . .
1 The Factor
2 Indian Winter
3 Sway Away
4 Premier Pegasus
5 Sinai
6 Surrey Star
7 Oakcrest Drive
8 City Cool
9 Metropolitan Man
I would be shocked if The Factor loses this race. He maiden win was just above and beyond anything his opponents have done to date. Perhaps the foot bruise and lack of training will defeat him, but I think that he can overcome them.
However, J.R. has other ideas. As usual, he will try to beat the favorite. Today, he has come up with Sinai to win. He believes that the colt could have run better in the San Pedro with a cleaner trip and will rebound with a shocking victory over The Factor. He feels that The Factor has not been adequately prepared for a race of this caliber due to the foot bruise.
Here are his complete picks. . .
1 Sinai
2 The Factor
3 Sway Away
4 Indian Winter
5 Oakcrest Drive
6 Premier Pegasus
7 Surrey Star
8 Metropolitan Man
9 City Cool
Seeing that I am well behind J.R. in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest (he leads me 23 to 12 at the moment!) I am hoping that, at the very least, The Factor finishes ahead of Sinai regardless of whether he wins or not. :)
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Busher Stakes at Aqueduct has drawn a small but talented field of five fillies. The morning line favorite at 4-5 is It’s Tricky, who is undefeated in two starts. She broke her maiden going six furlongs at Aqueduct before winning a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race, also at Aqueduct. She looks like a very promising young filly with a bright future!
Her main competition will likely come from Dance Quietly, who won the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct on January 8th. She has been getting better and better and may prove to be more than It’s Tricky can handle.
At Oaklawn Park, the second race on Sunday warrants attention. A six furlong allowance race for three-year-olds that have never won two races, it has drawn a field of six. The morning line favorite is Casperzapper, who has only won once from five starts. Most recently, he finished a very distant fourth behind Alternation, Elite Alex, and Commander in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race. Considering that Elite Alex is one of the favorites for Monday’s Southwest Stakes, I believe that Casperzapper will run quite well today.
That’s everything for now! I’ll be back tomorrow with my picks for the Southwest Stakes, as well as a few other races. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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