The Triple Crown Trail takes a sharp turn today. Some horses will negotiate this turn to perfection and continue on their way toward the Kentucky Derby. Others will take the turn a bit wide and lose some ground; possibly setting themselves too far back to get into contention.
The big question is how will To Honor and Serve take that turn? Unraced since November, the brilliant colt makes his three-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon. Last year, he flew to victories in the Nashua and Remsen Stakes (both grade II), defeating Mucho Macho Man both times. Mucho Macho Man has since come back to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and mark himself as a serious contender for the Triple Crown.
Will To Honor and Serve do the same and prove that he is as good as he was at two? Or will he falter on the turn as so many classy two-year-olds before him have? We find out this afternoon.
FEATURE RACE ---- Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)
Gulfstream Park/9 Furlongs/$400,000 Purse/Dirt
Competition will not be lacking when To Honor and Serve enters the starting gate.
Lined up against him are stakes winners Soldat, Gourmet Dinner, and Racing Aptitude. Promising maiden and allowance race winners Casper’s Touch, Shackleford, and Bowman’s Causeway are ready to prove themselves as quality Triple Crown contenders. Throw in the consistent El Grayling and you have one of the finest fields for sophomores so far this year.
Here are the post positions. . .
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Soldat 2-1 120
2 Gourmet Dinner 5-1 120
3 El Grayling 15-1 116
4 Casper’s Touch 6-1 116
5 Bowman’s Causeway 20-1 116
6 Racing Aptitude 30-1 120
7 To Honor and Serve 8-5 122
8 Shackleford 8-1 116
To begin, there is Soldat. The son of War Front was a fine runner on turf last year, winning the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III) and running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). However, he was tried on dirt in his 2011 debut and won by nearly eleven lengths over a sloppy track, which makes one wonder if he is actually better on dirt. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, he will have to prove himself capable of winning over a fast track today, as well as overcome starting from the rail. His workouts have been quite sharp. Alan Garcia will ride.
In gate two we find Gourmet Dinner, by far the richest of the eight three-year-olds in this race. The consistent colt won his first three races at Calder Race Course, including two stakes events, before running second in the In Reality Stakes. However, he rebounded off that loss with a sharp victory in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, which guaranteed him a spot in the Kentucky Derby, should he remain healthy. Two losses followed his Jackpot victory; a fourth in the grade I CashCall Futurity and a third in the Holy Bull Stakes. Neither performance was all that bad, and it can be argued that the Holy Bull was actually his best race. He has been training quite well for this race and should run his best race. Trained by Steve Standridge, the son of Trippi will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
The number three horse is El Grayling. A son of El Prado, he has had a fairly consistent career while competing against some very good horses. He has only won once, but finished fifth in the Sunday Silence Stakes while beaten just a half-length. He also finished second in a Churchill Downs allowance race behind Brethren and third in a Gulfstream allowance behind Shackleford and Casper’s Touch. Trained by Michael Maker, he would have to show some improvement if he is to contend here, but I wouldn’t count him out entirely. Rajiv Maragh has the mount.
This brings us to Casper’s Touch, the unlucky runner-up in a recent allowance race. A son of Touch Gold, the promising youngster finished fourth in his first start before shipping to England to run in Ascot’s Chesham Stakes. He finished third in a field of twelve, a fine performance indeed. He did not start again until November of 2010, when he won a one-mile main track allowance race at Churchill Downs in sharp fashion. This made him the even-money favorite in the above-mentioned allowance race, where he was bumped very hard in the stretch but still managed to re-rally for second. With a little more luck today, I expect him to run quite well. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, he will be ridden by Alex Solis.
Now we come to Bowman’s Causeway, one of the longer shots in this race. The son of Giant’s Causeway began his career in September 2010, running third in a maiden special weight behind Mucho Macho Man. This good effort made him the favorite in his next start, a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Sent straight to the lead, he set a quick pace before tiring late and finishing second behind Nacho Business. Finally, twelve days later and just fifteen days ago, he broke his maiden going nine furlongs by a length. Trained by Patrick Biancone, he will be making his third start in just four weeks, but I think he may surprise a few people and run well this afternoon. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Racing Aptitude drew gate six. The longshot in this race, he has never won a race on dirt and has never earned a Beyer speed figure higher than 78. His highest Beyer on dirt was a 29. He finished fifth and seventh in his last two races, but give him credit: in his last start, the Dania Beach Stakes, he was forced to steady twice and was only beaten 4 ¾ lengths. Trained by Howard Tesher, I doubt that he will be much of a factor today but perhaps he can hang on for a piece of the purse. I expect him to be not too far off the lead. Jose Lezcano has the mount.
This brings us to To Honor and Serve. As I mentioned above, the son of Bernardini won the Nashua and Remsen Stakes last year in sharp fashion, but he hasn’t raced since then. Trained by Bill Mott, the chestnut colt is one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He should run a good race today, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t quite show his best form this afternoon. After all, it’s been three months since his last race and although his workouts have been sharp, he may come up just a bit short in the stretch. However, his class alone should be enough to secure him second, if not first. John Velazquez will ride.
Finally, there is Shackleford. The colt has made three starts, winning four of them. Most recently, he won a nine furlong allowance race in which he defeated Casper’s Touch and El Grayling. The front-running colt will have to use his speed early if he does not want to get caught wide on the first turn. Trained by Dale Romans, I wouldn’t count him out but I can’t see him winning. He will be ridden by J. Castanon.
I have gone back and forth . . . and back and forth . . . and back and forth between my picks. I’ve debated for days whether or not To Honor and Serve will be sharp enough to win. Finally, I decided on these selections:
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Soldat
3 Gourmet Dinner
4 Bowman’s Causeway
5 Casper’s Touch
6 Shackleford
7 Racing Aptitude
8 El Grayling
I’ve finally decided to go with To Honor and Serve and hope that his class sees him through. There’s no doubt that it will be a tough race to win, but I think that he’s up to it.
As for Gourmet Dinner, I really like him but he strikes me as a colt who doesn’t want much further than a mile and a sixteenth. Nine furlongs is probably within his range, but I expect him to tire just a bit in the homestretch.
Of course, J.R. sees it differently.
J.R. had quite a bit of success last week beating favorites – he selected Mucho Macho Man to win the Risen Star and Archarcharch to win the Southwest Stakes. He’s going to try and do it again with Gourmet Dinner. He feels that Gourmet Dinner ran a magnificent race in the Holy Bull and that he will catch To Honor and Serve inside the sixteenth pole to win by a half-length. He feels that Soldat will not run as well on a fast track as he did on a sloppy track last time out and will disappoint while heavily bet.
His picks are thus:
1 Gourmet Dinner
2 To Honor and Serve
3 Soldat
4 Casper’s Touch
5 Bowman’s Causeway
6 Shackleford
7 El Grayling
8 Racing Aptitude
We’ll see what happens!
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
There is a fine set of supporting stakes races on the Fountain of Youth undercard, led by the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II). But before I begin discussing it, allow me to note that Crossbow has scratched. He shall instead await the Gotham Stakes next Saturday and run there.
Of the remaining entries, the morning line favorite is Travelin Man. The colt has made but one start thus far, breaking his maiden impressively going six furlongs over this track on January 6th. He won by 7 ¼ lengths and stopped the clock in 1:09.09. The performance was admirable, and he should run well today.
Other major contenders are Flashpoint, Madman Diaries, Black N Beauty, Manicero, and Royal Currier. Flashpoint broke his maiden sharply first time out, but has not started since. Madman Diaries set the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) before tiring to fourth. Black N Beauty finished fifth in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out, but won a one-mile allowance race impressively before that. Manicero has won four straight, but seven furlongs may be a bit of a stretch. Finally, Royal Hughes ran second to Fort Hughes last time out in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes.
It’s a nearly impossible race to handicap, but I must do so because it is one of this week’s contest races. Therefore, here are my selections. . .
1 Leave of Absence
2 Travelin Man
3 Royal Currier
4 Flashpoint
5 Manicero
6 Black N Beauty
7 Razmataz
8 Madman Diaries
9 Little Drama
It is a bit daring to pick Leave of Absence, but I decided to do so because he is the only colt in this race who has NOT shown early turn of foot. I expect a ridiculous speed duel for the early lead, enabling Leave of Absence to come flying late to win.
J.R., however, will select Razmataz. He feels that the colt will be overlooked in the betting, and will come from a few lengths off the lead to win in a photo finish. He likes the fact that the colt is trained by Todd Pletcher.
His picks are:
1 Razmataz
2 Royal Currier
3 Flashpoint
4 Leave of Absence
5 Little Drama
6 Travelin Man
7 Madman Diaries
8 Manicero
9 Black N Beauty
I feel confident that this race will enable me to catch up to J.R. in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest. However, he is equally confident that this race will enable him to build up an uncatchable lead. We’ll see.
The Borderland Derby at Sunland Park, in which Mine That Bird ran while prepping for his victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby, is the final race which J.R. and I shall handicap today.
The race has drawn a field of ten, with Special Kid the morning line favorite. He broke his maiden going a mile and a sixteenth at Santa Anita Park, winning a maiden special weight race by a nose with a desperate late run. Fusa Code, third in that race, is also running in the Borderland Derby even though he has never won a race.
Another logical contender is Expecting Cash. Most recently, he finished third behind Decisive Moment and Su Casa G Casa in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs. It was a fine performance and should set him up well here.
It’s My Party won a one-mile allowance race last time out and is stakes placed. Orion Xpress broke his maiden going six furlongs in 1:10.52. Either of them could run quite well.
Here are my selections:
1 It’s My Party
2 Special Kid
3 Expecting Cash
4 Orion Xpress
5 Mason’s Pegasus
6 Fusa Code
7 R Skydiver
8 What’s the Toccet
9 Carsoncitygambler
10 Behold de Buy
And here are J.R.’s:
1 Orion Xpress
2 Expecting Cash
3 Special Kid
4 R Skydiver
5 It’s My Party
6 Mason’s Pegasus
7 Fusa Code
8 Behold de Buy
9 What’s the Toccet
10 Carsoncitygambler
Neither of us have a very good feel for the race, but that is what we came up with. We’ll see what happens!
The one-mile Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), run at Gulfstream Park two races prior to the Fountain of Youth Stakes, drew a field of nine. However, Roxy Gap has scratched, leaving the race with eight runners.
The morning line favorite is Dancinginherdreams. The fine filly swept to two easy victories as a juvenile, including a 5 ¼ length triumph in the grade II Pocahontas Stakes. However, she lost her first race as a three-year-old, rallying strongly but failing to catch Pomeroy’s Pistol in the grade II Forward Gal Stakes. She should be sharper today.
Speaking of Pomeroy’s Pistol, she will try to beat Dancinginherdreams yet again today. She has twice proven herself to be stakes caliber; not only did she win the Forward Gal she also ran second in Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) two starts back. She will likely set the pace this afternoon.
R Heat Lightning is the other obvious contender. She won the grade I Spinaway Stakes at two and ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), but in her 2011 debut ran fourth in the Forward Gal. Like Dancinginherdreams, she should run better today.
Then there is the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise. The 5-2 favorite is Indian Winter, who finished third in the grade I Del Mar Futurity as a juvenile and won the San Pedro Stakes last time out. He will have to prove himself in a route race today, but I believe that he will do so impressively.
The third race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday merits attention as well. The race has drawn a pair of very promising colts in Arch Traveler and Nacho Business. Both are entering the race off of sharp maiden victories and I would not be surprised to see them run 1-2. Other notable colts include Washington’s Rules, Private Prize, and Cool Blue Red Hot. This race may turn out a Florida Derby contender or two.
The sixth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday is also quite notable. The 8-5 morning line favorite, San Pablo, enters off of a strong second to Washington’s Rules in a maiden special weight. He may be something special, so I advise you to keep an eye on him!
The fifth race at Fair Grounds on Saturday is also noteworthy. The favorites at 6-5 are Sour and Left, who will run coupled. Sour and Lumberyard Jack are the colts that I will be watching. Both are coming off of victories in one-mile and seventy yards maiden special weight races, and both could mark themselves as potential Louisiana Derby contenders with a victory.
The Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park has drawn a fine field of seven; however, there have been two scratches. The morning line favorite is J J’s Lucky Train, a very consistent colt who has finished second in both the Count Fleet Stakes and Whirlaway Stakes this year. He should finish in the exacta today without a doubt.
His main competition will likely come from Bandbox. The colt won his first three races, which included a pair of stakes races, before finishing fourth in the Remsen Stakes after a rough trip. This will be his first start since then, but he should be up to running a winning race.
The ultra-consistent Wicked Thunder is the third choice. He has made nine starts, won four of them, and never finished worse than second. In his most recent race, the Dancing Count Stakes at Laurel Park, he won by a nose in a thrilling stretch duel. Seeing that he has experience over this track, he may be good enough to upset the two favorites.
The second race at Oaklawn Park on Sunday should prove interesting as well. A mile and a sixteenth allowance race for three-year-olds and up, the morning line favorite is Commander. The colt ran third behind Alternation and Elite Alex two starts back, but finished a badly beaten sixth in a January 29th allowance race. On the other hand, his sixth place finish came only two weeks after his tough third, so perhaps the extra rest between his January 29th start and tomorrow’s race will help him run better.
Supreme Ruler should also run well. 7-2 on the morning line, he broke his maiden with a tremendous late run first time out on January 15th. This will be his first start since then. Expect to see him flying late.
Finally, we come to the eighth race at Santa Anita Park on Saturday. A one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds, the favorite is Mr. Commons, who broke his maiden second time out at Santa Anita. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on the downhill turf course, he drew off to a 5 ½ length victory in a brilliant 1:12.14. If he can transfer that form to the main track, he will be tough to beat.
Also, keep an eye on Chiloquin, who defeated next-time-out winner Drink at Buster’s in a January 16th allowance race at Santa Anita,
And finally, after three thousand-plus words, that is all I have to say. Now go out and enjoy a fabulous set of races!
-Keelerman
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