(Please note the debut of my "Just Out of the Top" group below the Top Twenty. I've decided to further subdivide my "Other Notable Horses" sections, feeling that there are enough horses to warrant it. Enjoy!)
1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
He wasn't entered in the Fountain of Youth, with Nick Zito opting to find a similar race on a later date. I can't wait to see how he runs in what will be only his third start.
2. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
He drew gate seven in the Fountain of Youth, where he will likely be the huge favorite. It's a difficult race in which to debut as a three-year-old, but if he's anything like he was last year, he should win.
3. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's up to five furlongs in his workouts, breezing that distance in 1:01 2/5 on February 20th. Although the Tampa Bay Derby had been announced as his next start, the one-mile Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park has become his new goal.
4. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Without Uncle Mo running in the Tampa Bay Derby, I would not be surprised to see Brethren turn up there. Half-brother to Super Saver may not be bred to go as far as his Derby winning brother, but his obvious talent earns him respect.
5. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Ended up not running in the San Vicente after all. I assume this means that the San Felipe Stakes in March is his new goal.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Fine victory in the Risen Star proved that this colt is better than he showed in the Holy Bull. I liked the way he looked in the stretch.
7. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Strong second in the Risen Star was a very good comeback performance. He earned his best Beyer Speed Figure to date in that race, and should run even better in his next start.
8. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He drew the rail in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Impressive allowance winner who placed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf will likely have to prove himself on a fast dirt track. If he wins, he will move way up on my list.
9. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
He ran a very good race in the Southwest despite racing very wide all the way around the track. I like the way that he kept running all the way to the finish -- he reminds me of Dublin last year.
10. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
A rough trip in the Risen Star compromised his chances, but he still rallied strongly enough to finish third. His next start should tell us more.
11. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Rebounded strongly off of his dismal Smarty Jones effort with a strong upset victory in the Southwest. Like Elite Alex, he was forced to race very wide. I'm looking forward to his next start.
12. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Breezed five furlongs in 1:00.65 on February 20th. The Gotham Stakes in March is still his current goal. Until then, we won't know much more about him.
13. Casper's Touch - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
He will start from gate number four in the Fountain of Youth. Was very rank in his last start, something he will have to overcome this time around.
14. Sway Away - Trained by Jeff Bonde
Closed like a rocket in the San Vicente Stakes, making up slightly more than four lengths on the winner in the final furlong. Considering it was his first start off of a lengthy layoff, his future looks very bright.
15. Alternation - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel
An allowance victory on February 21st against older horses proves just how good this colt is. He overcame a poor break to come from nine lengths back and win by 3 1/4. Looks like a good one.
16. Anthony’s Cross – Trained by Eoin Harty
Probably won't race again until the Santa Anita Derby in April. Thus he has not recorded a workout since his Robert B. Lewis victory. Not sure what to think of this one.
17. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Already back on the worktab, as he breezed a half-mile in :50 4/5 on February 20th. The UAE Derby in Dubai in March has been mentioned as possibly his next start. A fascinating idea indeed.
18. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
Won the Whirlaway Stakes on a sloppy track with an impressive late-running performance. He looks like a colt who could improve dramatically over the next few months.
19. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
Breezed for the first time since the Las Virgenes on February 21st, going five furlongs in :58 4/5 at Hollywood Park. If it's any indication of how she will run in her next start, she should turn in a monster performance in the Santa Anita Oaks.
20. Congo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
I somehow overlooked that he was running on February 17th in a starter allowance race. Despite being stuck behind horses, he gamely split them and drew off to win by 1 3/4 lengths. He looks like a good one.
20. Machen - Trained by Neil Howard
Couldn't decide whether to include him or Congo in the twentieth spot and so decided to include them both. Really didn't run all that badly in the Risen Star Stakes and should improve next time out.
Note: Tapizar and Clubhouse Ride are both off the Triple Crown Trail due to unfortunate injuries. They have both been removed from this list.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Just Out of the Top
Astrology - San Vicente Stakes will likely be next.
Beamer - Actually didn't run too badly in the Sam F. Davis. Next start will tell us more.
Bowman's Causeway - Drew gate five in the Fountain of Youth.
J P's Gusto - Was charging hard at the finish of the Southwest Stakes.
Kathmanblu - Solid win in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes was impressive.
Premier Pegasus - Strong third in the San Vicente should set him up well for his two-turn debut.
Runflatout - San Vicente Stakes will likely be next.
Shackleford - Will break from the outside in the Fountain of Youth.
Sweet Ducky - Will train up to the Florida Derby.
Wilkinson - Not sure where the LeComte winner will turn up next.
Top Notables:
Adirondack Summer - Three furlong breeze in :39 flat this morning relieves me. I was concerned after his long break following the Dania Beach that a serious setback might have occurred.
Awesome Patriot - Expect him to show up in the entries soon.
Caleb's Posse - Didn't run all that well in the Southwest Stakes but significant traffic issues hindered his chances.
Cal Nation - Has a lot of catching up to do but raw talent warrants his inclusion here.
Chasing Moonlight - A pair of slow half-mile breezes suggest that his next start won't be for a while.
Comma to the Top - Hasn't breezed since the El Camino Real Derby.
Cool Blue Red Hot - Entered in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Crossbow – Drew the rail in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Decisive Moment - Came out of the Risen Star with a minor injury. However, it shouldn't stop him from continuing onward to the Kentucky Derby.
Flashpoint - Drew gate five in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Gourmet Dinner - Will start from gate two in the Fountain of Youth.
Indian Winter - Scratched from the San Vicente and will run in Saturday's Turf Paradise Derby instead.
J J's Lucky Train - Entered in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park on Saturday.
J W Blue - The Rebel Stakes may be his next start.
Nacho Business - Entered in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Positive Response - The San Felipe Stakes in March could potentially be his next race.
Queen'splatekitten - The Blue Grass Stakes has been mentioned as a possible goal.
The Factor - Brilliant win in the San Vicente Stakes sets him up for a try at the Sunland Derby in late March.
Travelin Man - Drew gate three in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Secondary Notables:
Bandbox - Entered in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel.
Bert B Don - Dropping this colt out of the "Top Notable" section because he hasn't breezed since January 29th.
Black N Beauty - Will break from gate eight in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Buffum - Finished fifth in UAE 2,000 Guineas.
Commander - Not sure what to think of him.
Dance City - Hasn't breezed since February 6th.
Determinato - Hasn't breezed since February 5th.
Eminent Tale - Winner of the Undaunted Mettle Stakes could prove an interesting contender.
Manicero - Drew gate nine in the Hutcheson Stakes.
Monzon - Very disappointing in the Sam F. Davis.
R Heat Lightning - Will start from gate five in the Davona Dale Stakes.
Sky Music - Runner-up in the Undaunted Mettle Stakes may prove to have been the best horse in the race.
Striding Ahead - Breezed three furlongs in :37 flat on February 15th.
Uncle Sam - Breezed a half-mile in :48 3/5 this morning.
Wine Police - Hasn't breezed since February 7th.
-Keelerman
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