Thursday, February 03, 2011

KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- February 3rd, 2011

1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
His win in the Holy Bull Stakes was nothing short of phenomenal. He closed his final two quarter miles in brilliant time. This colt may be the best Triple Crown contender that Nick Zito has had in years.

2. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
Reluctantly dropping this colt out of the top spot strictly because of how impressive Dialed In was in the Holy Bull. Breezed five furlongs in 1:04 1/5 on January 30th at Payson Park.

3. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Recorded his first workout since the Breeders’ Cup when he breezed three furlongs in in :39.95 at Palm Meadows Training Center. It was nothing but an easy “first workout in months” type work, but it’s a start.

4. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
Worked a brilliant seven furlongs in 1:24 3/5 at Hollywood Park on January 31st. Although this colt’s pedigree doesn’t shout ten furlongs, I really believe that he is something special indeed. He will likely record one more workout prior to his expected start in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III).

5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Worked five furlongs for the third consecutive time on January 30th at Palm Meadows Training Center, breezing five furlongs in 1:02 1/5 on January 30th. The Sam F. Davis Stakes on February 12th is expected to be his next race.

6. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Worked a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 at Santa Anita Park on January 31st, which makes me think that the Robert B. Lewis Stakes will be next.

7. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Interestingly, this colt has been handled by three different trainers in his first four starts. It apparently hasn’t hindered his talent, but I do wonder why the trainer changes occurred.

8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
His workouts have been improving steadily, with his most recent being a seven-furlong workout at Santa Anita in 1:25 1/5 on February 1st. The Robert B. Lewis Stakes will tell us if he can handle dirt any better than he did in the Breeders' Cup.

9. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
Wondering where this colt is going to run next. Will it be at Santa Anita or some other racetrack? I have the suspicion that he may turn up in the Southwest Stakes or some similar prep race outside of California.

10. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
Worked a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 on January 30th, the fastest of 53 works at that distance that day. The Southwest Stakes will likely be his next start.

11. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
Recorded the fastest five-furlong work of the day on January 31st at Hollywood Park, breezing the distance in :59 1/5. She drew gate six in the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) on Saturday.

12. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Hasn't worked out since his brilliant allowance victory. This leaves him less than three weeks to prepare for the Fountain of Youth Stakes. I'm not sure that he can possibly get ready in such a short time.

13. Machen - Trained by Neil Howard
Easily won a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds on Sunday. Despite being rank and racing greenly, he split horses like a pro and drew off to win by five lengths. If he learns to relax a little better, than he could end up being the favorite for the Louisiana Derby.

14. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Stepped up his workouts by breezing five furlongs in 1:01 flat on January 29th at Gulfstream Park. The Risen Star Stakes will likely be his next start.

15. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like his stablemate Uncle Mo, he recorded his first workout since the Breeders’ Cup when he breezed three furlongs in :36.95 on January 30th at Palm Meadows. It was the fastest of five workouts that day. The Gotham Stakes in March has been mentioned as a potential first start back.

16. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
I was extremely disappointed by this colts dismal fourth place effort in the Holy Bull. I was convinced that he was going to run considerably better. I'm sure that he is capable of doing more, but until he rebounds I'm afraid that I must drop him out of the top ten.

17. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
Recorded his first workout since his Hollywood Prevue Stakes by working a half-mile in :47 1/5 at Santa Anita on January 28th. It would be close, but the San Vicente could be his next race.

18. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I'm beginning to wonder if a setback has occurred with this colt, for he hasn't worked out once since his finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

19. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
The fact that he missed the Holy Bull worries me. This on top of the fact that I don't believe he can run a mile and a quarter forces me to drop him way down.

20. Adirondack Summer - Trained by Christophe Clement
Turned in a tremendous late run in the Dania Beach Stakes last month, coming from last of nine in the one-mile turf event to win by a nose. If he can run like that on dirt, this is a serious contender.

OTHER NOTABLE HORSES

Top Notables:

Adirondack Express - Strong third last time out in a maiden special weight; entered to race tomorrow.
Alternation - Promising colt may show up in Southwest Stakes.
Awesome Patriot - Perhaps the Robert B. Lewis is next.
Bert B Don - Can't wait to see this colt at two-turns.
Caleb's Posse - Smarty Jones Stakes winner could show up in the Southwest Stakes next.
Casper's Touch - Promising juvenile is entered to run on Saturday.
Chasing Moonlight - Defeated Kriegspeil and Adirondack Express in a maiden special weight.
Cool Blue Red Hot - Finished a distant second to Soldat in an allowance optional claiming race.
Crossbow – Sharp allowance victory at Gulfstream Park on Saturday proves he’s a classy colt.
Dance City - Won a nine furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 21st.
Decisive Moment - The Risen Star seems like a logical next start.
Determinato - Spectacular Bid winner merits close watch.
Gold Raptor - Won a one-mile and seventy-yards allowance race at Aqueduct by eight lengths on January 28th.
Gourmet Dinner - Third-place finish in the Holy Bull wasn't encouraging.
J P's Gusto - San Vicente Stakes may be next.
J W Blue - Promising colt won a 1 1/16 miles allowance race at Oaklawn in sharp fashion.
Justin Phillip - Extremely disappointing in the LeComte Stakes.
Kathmanblu - Sweetest Chant victory was solid. I can't wait to see her back on dirt.
Kriegspeil - Strong second to Chasing Moonlight in a maiden race despite a rough trip.
Monzon - Was not entered in the Whirlaway, so I'm left wondering where he will run next.
Positive Response - El Camino Real Derby is next.
Runflatout - Broke his maiden first time out at Santa Anita the other day, running six furlongs in 1:07 3/5.
Sway Away - The San Vicente could be next.
Sweet Ducky - Very sharp second in the Holy Bull was impressive.
The Factor - May miss the San Vicente due to a foot bruise.
Travelin Man - Impressive maiden winner.
Wilkinson - LeComte win was solid; should have no trouble with distance.

Secondary Notables:

Anthony’s Cross - Disappointing in the Sham Stakes.
Bandbox - Still wondering where his next start will be.
Beamer - Finished third behind Soldat and Cool Blue Red Hot in an allowance optional claiming race.
Black N Beauty - Disappointing in the Holy Bull.
Buffum - Apparently a setback has occurred, for he has not worked out since the Remsen.
Commander - Disappointing 6th place finish in a 1 1/16 miles allowance race at Oaklawn on January 29th.
Grant Jack - Very disappointing in the Smarty Jones Stakes.
Major Gain - Very disappointing in the Holy Bull.
Manicero - Victory in Pasco Stakes was nice, but he showed serious stamina limitations.
Read the Contract - Disappointing in the Pasco Stakes.
R Heat Lightning - Poor performance in the Forward Gal disappointed me.
Riveting Reason - Does not seem to be Triple Crown caliber.
Uncle Sam - Disappointing in the Sham Stakes.
Wine Police - Where will he start next?
Zayda - Very disappointing in the California Derby.

-Keelerman

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